Red Sox vs. Angels (12:03 pm Friday)
Posted: October 2nd, 2008 | Filed under: Playoffs | 62 Comments »
Is there an easier word in the English language to lip-read than the F-word? I suspect not. I suspect the F-word is like the speed of light when it comes to lip-reading, nothing can ever surpass it so you can only measure other words against it. Like, “Dadgum” would be a fairly easy word to lip-read — I’d rate it about a .4 F.
This of course is brought up again as the cameras closed in on Calfiornia Angels pitcher John Lackey after he walked Dustin Pedroia, and he unleashed a full-fledged, all-out, why-me-world F. I imagine he’s not the first man to do that after losing Pedroia.
* * *
I do wonder how you can have a lineup with Mark Teixeira, Vlady, Torii Hunter and hot-hitting MIke Napoli and find it unable to score runs. The Angels were 10th in runs scored. TENTH! Only team in baseball history to win 100 and finish 10th in runs scored. Buck Martinez explained it without necessarily meaning to explain it. He said something like, “Well, Erick Aybar (84 OPS+) and Chone Figgins (84 OPS+) are what make this offense go.” Yes. Quite. I sense disaster looming.
* * *
Well, here’s an interesting story about how the Angels do not plan on being any more selective today against Dice-K just because he walked 1.3 million people this year. The money quote from swinging coach Mickey Hatcher:
“You want them to step in the box and be able to do something,” Hatcher said. “You don’t want them to step in the box and say, ‘We’re going to take a pitch, and then we’re going to swing.’ “
You know, on the one hand, I don’t entirely disagree with Hatcher’s general point. I mean, it’s stupid to not take pitches against Dice K, but let’s be blunt: You ain’t changing now. The Angels have played 163 real games, not to mention all the spring training games, not to mention all of last year’s stuff and the year before that and the year before that. I suspect that it might be a little bit late now to say, “Hey, you know what guys? Let’s start taking pitches.” The Angels finished 12th in the league in walks this year, and that’s only because Seattle and Kansas City happened to be in the league*. Dice K or not, the Angels are the Angels.
*Holy cow, the Royals walked fewer than 400 times this year. That’s pretty hard to do. I had a long chat with Royals GM Dayton Moore this week — that column will run in The Kansas City Star on Sunday — and he must have used the words “on-base percentage” about 239 times. That was good to hear and also inevitable. This was the sort of year, I think, that can make an OBP believer out of anyone. There are no free-swinging atheists in a 392-walk foxhole.
So, no, I would not expect Mickey Hatcher or anyone on the Angels to say, “Yeah, we’re going to change our philosophy tonight because of the pitcher.” But I will say this: The Angels are really, really, really close — maybe even over the line — when it comes to what I would like to now call: “Diloneism.” Yes, another new word!
Diloneism (Dee-lo-NAY-izm) noun. The misguided belief that your success is directly attributable to what is actually your biggest weakness.
I’ve named this after the obscure (to most) Miguel Dilone, who slapped and ran his way to a .341 average in 1980 while a member of the Cleveland Indians. He stole 61 bases, scored 82 runs despite missing 30 games and playing for a pretty brutal offensive team in a low-run scoring time. He was useful then. He also hit zero home runs. That’s who he was. But from what I could gather as a fan, Miguel Dilone did not see himself that way. He viewed himself as a guy who could hit with some power. He seemed to change his swing to accentuate his power, which might have been a good move if he had ANY power, but he did not, and five teams and five years later he would out of baseball.
Which takes us back to the Angels. They are a very good baseball team. Why? They have good starting pitching. They have an often dominant bullpen. They play fair defense. And they have some offensive speed and two or three good (and high priced) middle of the lineup guys. All this made them good in close games (80-42 in games decided by four runs or less) and as such they deserve a lot of credit.
BUT there is a real danger of Diloneism now — this personal sense that the reason the Angels are good is BECAUSE they don’t score runs, because they have an astonishingly bad offensive approach, because they don’t get on base and swing free and don’t get caught up in, you know, WALKING or whatever. I’m not saying the Angels are there yet, but I hear tones of it in many of the quotes. The Angels win IN SPITE of not scoring many runs. And yet you hear it here and elsewhere: “Heck no, we’re not going to change our approach.”
You know what? Your approach sucks.
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I actually have to say that, aside from Teixeira and Guerrero, the Angels really don’t impress me offensively (I still haven’t come to terms with Mike Napoli’s season). As you mentioned, Aybar an Figgins are below average (although figgins does get on base), but I think Kendrick and Anderson are the real killers. These are the guys who are nominally the supporting cast for the guys you mentioned and yet while they both hit for a bit of average, their total lack of plate discipline means that unless they hit 320 they’re basically out machines.
Buck Martinez and Chip Carey don’t know very much about what causes baseball teams to win.
My favorite comment from Chip Carey (how DID he get that job, by the way?) was, when the Sox were leading 2-1, he said that SOMEHOW the Red Sox have found their way to a 2-1 lead (as if this is an insurmountable margin), hitting SO poorly with men on base.
Except for one hit — a two-run homer by Jason Bay — they weren’t doing anything at all with runners on base.
Does anyone post transcripts of this crap?
After the last out of Sunday’s Cubs-Brewers game, it was pretty clear that the first words out of CC Sabathia’s mouth were “F@$k Yeah!”
I love baseball.
Buck Martinez explained it without necessarily meaning to explain it.
Which is the essence of Buck Martinez, really.
I realize this morning that it’s incredibly fortunate that the Sox won, because if I’d stayed up til 2am to watch them lose, I’d probably be a lot more pissy at work today…and that’s not good for anyone.
By the way, someone needs to tell Buck that it’s OK to stop talking. Really:
“Buck, why don’t you stop talking for a while…sit the next couple plays out.”
Chip Caray/Buck Martinez, coupled with that horrendous Bon Jovi song, just cements TBS as the worst MLB broadcast I can remember (though I’m glad I’m not forced to listen to Joe “Yooge Friggin Head” Buck/McCarver…who at this point don’t seem like such a bad alternative)
I find Harold Reynolds on TBS to be the most annoying broadcaster….he’s not the dumbest, but he tends to find the longest way possible to say everything. I’d rather listen to a big idiot who knows when to shut up than a small idiot who rambles during the whole game.
Why couldn’t TBS hire some of the regular broadcast personnel of the teams in the playoffs? Remy calling the Red Sox in the Playoffs, or Len & Bob talking about the Cubs…..That is much better.
Question: on Vlad’s baserunning gaffe, Lowell was way off of third base. Was that because he deked Guererro into thinking that there was not going to be a throw coming to third? It looked to me that maybe he did.
Lowell’s a tricky player, who’s pulled off the old hidden-ball trick a few times. I’d like to think that last night he pulled off the old “act like there’s not going to be a throw coming so the runner will keep running” trick.
No one commented on this during the game or after, so I’m probably wrong. But I don’t know for sure. And why was Lowell so far from third base otherwise?
I like that Harold Reynolds likes baseball. This should be a job requirement. John Kruk, for one, has such disdain for it.
For me, the all-time best sports F-word was dropped by Pudge Rodriguez in that Game 5 win over the Giants in the 2003 NLDS when he tagged out the runner at the plate, held up the ball in his right hand, and screamed “I’ve got the F-ing ball!!”
Also, Greg Maddux has to be the king of dropping F-bombs on the mound.
On the Lowell/Vlad play, I think Lowell was as surprised as anyone that Vlad was running. Vlad was basically on second when Youkilis came up with the ball. And Vlad walks like he’s auditioning for a Sanford and Son remake so for him to beat the throw was, er, ambitious on his part.
On Buck Martinez, I actually found that he added something to the broadcast, particularly when we was talking about pitch-sequences with Lester on the mound (at one particular point). Lester had busted a lefty in with two straight cutters in for strikes and said that he’d expect either a high fastball or a curve away . .. the next pitch was a curve away . . .
As Billy Beane might say:
“Scoscia’s shit (swing first, think later; run at all costs) doesn;t work as well in the playoffs”, when better pitching staffs exploit such hitters, and running into outs is far more costly due to the increased offensive futility.
Yeah, I think there were two parts to it – one, Lowell was surprised Vlad was running (the third base coach, incidentally, was holding up a stop sign but Vlad didn’t see it). Two, I don’t think anyone expected Youk to come up with the ball that fast – he really made an incredible play to trap and grab that ball as fast as he did when it fell in. So he was up and turning to throw before Lowell really had much time to react.
Jon Lester, incidentally, is a really good pitcher. I think there’s a tendency among a lot of people to keep playing the cancer angle – but for most of this year, he’s been the ace of our staff. And he showed why last night. He’s just flat-out excellent.
Also, Jason Bay is cool with me. He can stick around.
Vlad’s been ignoring the base coaches and running around the bases like he’s Pedroia all season. I knew it would haunt them in the playoffs, and it has. His knees are shot. He’ll be relegated to DH next season for sure.
I’m an Angels fan, but I can’t stand Scioscia’s managing philosophy. The Angels don’t take pitches equals fewer walks which are the lifeblood of good teams. I mean, hell, look at the Dodgers last night. Dempster gift-wrapped that game for them.
“…Vlad walks like he’s auditioning for a Sanford and Son remake”
Yes! Thank you for confirming something my brilliant wife said last night. They showed Vladdy walking to the plate and she observed, “That guy moves like Redd Foxx.”
On a different note, I don’t think the Caray/Martinez are very good (though I enjoy them infinitely more than the Fox Broadcasters Who Shall Not Be Named), but one comment by Martinez had me searching baseball-reference.com to prove him wrong only to discover, to my chagrin, that Martinez was right. When Martinez was asked about the impact of moving Garret Anderson to the #2 spot in the lineup, his reply was (paraphasing), “Well, on-base ability. He can set the table for Teixeira and Guerrero.” Knowing of Anderson’s career-long challenge at reaching base effectively, I thought to myself, “Bullshit”. Then I looked up Anderson’s splits this year and found out that he did, indeed, have a .372 OBP as the two-hole hitter. It was due almost entirely to a .344 batting average in that spot, so it’s not like he suddenly learned to take a walk or anything, but it was a factually correct statement.
That’s right, Buck Martinez illuminated something. Who knew?
Great win by the Red Sox. Scoring a couple off that over-rated bullpen ["Man these guys totally make it a 6 inning game!"] ….(not!) ) was great. Only thing better would have been to touch up K-Rod (but there’s still time for that)
It would be funny if they hired Remy and Hawk Harrelson share the commentary on a battle of the Sox series. It would probably come to blows,
The TBS guys were average at best but any playoff game without McCarver is a great thing.
Chip Carey is your man if you’re looking for things people said about baseball five years ago that were wrong then, too.
I believe it was Chip Carey (how DID he get that job?) who, as Joe pointed out last year, called Grady Sizemore “the best player you haven’t heard of.”
Q: And why was Lowell so far from third base otherwise?
A: I think it is as simple as the fact that the throw was offline and Lowell positioned himself to catch it. No trickery. Lowell also might have stepped back to avoid Red Foxx coming down the line running away from Esther.
Q: Who on the Angels would play Lamont, Grady, or Rollo?
I did not mind Buck Martinez and actually thought he did an above average job.
The Chip Caray moment that was nails on a chalkboard to me was after Bay’s homerun. I thought to myself, please don’t say “Manny who?”. Which scares me immensely because then that means Chip and I were on the same train of thought. I just thought it would be a cheesey thing to say and he blurted it right out.
The second part that was just outright hilarious was Chip stated:
“How many times over the summer when we saw the Red Sox would we hear about ‘el caballito,’ the ‘little pony.’â€
I consider myself a pretty serious fan. Season tix, etc. and plenty of useless peripheral Sox knowledge. But I have NEVER heard Pedroia called the “little pony.”
I find this strange in the way when I watch the Patriots and someone refers to Gillete Stadium in Foxboro as “the Razor”. I assure you no one calls it this. There should be a joeblog entry for nicknames that are not real (if there is not one already).
Heh. I could have sworn that Simmons joked that they should play the Sanford and Son theme over the PA when Vlad comes up to hit. Of course, he could always hit a pitch off the bounce for a home run and then who’s laughing as he Sanfords his way around the bases?
(I could be confusing this with a column I know he wrote about best bullpen entrance/walk to the plate music. I agree with a reader of his who voted for the Mario Brothers game music – because what could you say if you were pwnd by some dude who marched out to that goofy stuff?)
I play hockey, so we get to hear the best curses, test-driven for use in other, gentler sports. Just this past Tuesday one guy at our rink misfired on a pass and spat out, “F’k'n WH*RE B&$TARD!!” And he has a teammate that says wonderfully rude things in Portuguese.
As Billy Beane might say:
“Scoscia’s shit (swing first, think later; run at all costs) doesn;t work as well in the playoffsâ€, when better pitching staffs exploit such hitters, and running into outs is far more costly due to the increased offensive futility.
To which Mike Scioscia might reply:
“Billy, would you like to try my ring on?”
Scioscia’s “shit” is to be aggressive, not to be stupid, which is how Vlad played that. If he’d taken off from first once Hunter hit it (hell, he was far enough off the base anyway), he would have made it to third. If Youkilis makes a ridiculous play and doubles him off, you tip your hat to Youkilis. The gamble would have been worth it, in my opinion. But that was not a gamble. That was bad baserunning, which is not Scioscia’s “shit.” Nor does he tell anyone not to take a walk. Aggressive hitting is an organizational philosophy and can’t be blamed entirely on Scioscia.
As for the announcers, Buck Martinez has some valuable insights, but the problem is that he talks about the worthless insights too. The guy just won’t shut up. He said something after every stupid pitch. Sometimes, you just have to let it go.
Actually, I don’t think Scioscia would have time to reply, he’s too busy trying to figure out how not to get swept for the 3rd time by a team that adheres to Beane’s philosophy (and yes, I know the Sox steal bases now – but they do it successfully; no one’s against that)
Speaking of Vlad, after Manny hit that homer off the ball that nearly bounced, I swear the announcers (not Chip Carey) (but — how DID Chip Carey get that job?) said that no one else in baseball could have hit a homer on that pitch. No one. Well, maybe Albert Pujols is strong enough.
The name Vladimir Guerrero never came up, and he’s the only good player who would even SWING at it. I don’t think I’ve EVER seen Manny swing at a pitch that far out of the strike zone.
Incidentally, is it just me, or has Cal Ripken gained, well, an extra iron horse or two?
Josh: I agree with your general point – Vlad is the only really good hitter in baseball that I know to consistently swing at, and pound, crap nowhere near the strike zone. However, one can actually look back – and Joe will appreciate this – at Carlos Beltran’s amazing 2004 postseason for the Astros to find another good example of someone doing the exact same thing. I don’t remember off the top of my head who he hit it off, but at one point in his completely ridiculous run, he hit a ball that was literally inches from bouncing on the ground and golfed it right into the stands.
I’m really going to miss Vlad when he’s gone. Anyone who hasn’t enjoyed watching him play can’t be much of a fan. Uptight announcers talk (and talk and talk) about the professionalism of a Jeter or a Ripken), but it’s a guy like Vlad (the unique players*) who give me the greatest joy.
* I loved Manny for the same reason, but as a Sox fan, he’s making it hard these days.
Micah: I remember that HR Beltran hit. I think it was late in game 5 of that series actually. It might have been the one that put the Astros in position to win (until Mr. Pujols said something about that). I remember thinking (and the announcers saying) that Beltran was about as dialed in as any hitter I’ve ever seen.
That being said, I think Vlad’s the only guy who can consistently hit those pitches out. And even Manny and Beltran had a certain grace to them when they hit those pitches. Vlad is just pure, unadulterated, unapologetic raw power. It’s ugly as sin, usually, but somehow it’s still one of the most fun things to watch.
I know Simmons said this awhile ago, but Vlad and Pujols are two of the only guys who you will sit down to watch if they are up NO MATTER WHAT. It doesn’t matter what’s going on, who’s winning the game, whether or not your house is on fire, you have to stop and watch those two guys hit. It’s a sight to behold.
Josh: Agreed. Vlad is a truly unique hitter, and utterly fascinating to watch. Manny is unique, too, but in a different way. And yeah. I can’t hate Manny – not after 7 1/2 pretty amazing years and two World Series titles – but I am rooting for the Cubs right now.
Daniel: The thing that makes Vlad so scary, even though he’s been pretty awful in the postseason in his career, is that you can’t pitch around him. Well, you can, but it involves the catcher standing three feet to the right of home plate. Because even if you refuse to throw the ball anywhere near the strike zone in the hope that he’ll chase and get himself out, he’ll chase… and has a good chance to pound it into the stratosphere. I have never watched another bad-ball hitter like Vladimir Guerrero and it will probably be a long time before I ever see anyone else who’s close to him.
It is not accurate to say that Lowell was off the base because the throw was off-line. That implies that Lowell was on the base and had to move to get to the ball. The reality is that Vladi was on second base, Youkilis had the ball in hand, and Lowell had not moved. Youkilis threw the ball to where Lowell was standing, not the base, which he might just as well have done, had he anticipated that Lowell was going to cover the bag.
But the throw was absolutely not off-line; Youk has a very accurate arm and he correctly threw on a hop to where Lowell was standing.
Some rambling thoughts from game 1… Youk reminds me of Rose sometimes. More than Pedroia does… What is with Ellsbury in the post season? Kid was awesome last night, like he was eager for the challenge / pressure… Shields doesn’t scare the Red Sox at all… I could sense the relief the sox felt when Lackey left the game… Lackey is just awesome… I agree with poster above who said the Angels pen is not all that scary. Sox pen is not exactly lights out either… I could distinctly hear “Let’s Go Red Sox” being chanted on the telecast. I was at the playoff game last year at Anaheim and heard about 5000 red sox fans chanting then too… That ‘ballpark’ is surrounded by the largest parking lot I have ever seen, anywhere. Must be 10,000 acres of pavement… Horrific place… I think Scoscia’s a great manager, the Red Sox have fielded better teams… Let’s see if they can rally back and take a game. I think if they get one, it’s game 2… Palin underwhelms tonight, disappointing her faithful…
Justyo – as a lifelong Anaheim resident and Angels fan, and a guy who’s visited 15 other mlb stadiums, Anaheim Stadium’s parking is by far the best. If you wanted to park at most other stadiums, you have to pay $20 and then walk 12 blocks to get to the stadium. Anaheim’s parking is $10 and you’re already right there. Also makes for great tailgating. Not sure why that’s horrific.
Daniel– Mine was a purely aesthetic argument, not convenience. Though I’ve suffered a mirage trying to find my car in July. Frankly, I prefer stepping off a train, walking a few blocks, hearing the park before I see it. That kind of thing. Not much into tailgating at a baseball game, either. But to each their own.
Red Sox and Dodgers in the WS. That would be awesome.
I would not like to see the Red Sox play the Dodger in the World Series. Why, you ask?
1. So much of the talk would be filled with nonsense about Manny AND Nomar AND Lowe AND McCourt…I just don’t want to deal with that. Plus, I believe the Manny trade was a good one for the Sox from a baseball standpoint (solved the lf problem for ‘09 at reasonable price without giving up any ‘09 talent) and I get tired of hearing about how the Sox had to sell manny on the cheap because he was such a distraction; it might fit with the journalists’ narrative, but it ain’t true.
2. I would like to see Manny get a standing O when he returns to Fenway. If he returned with the Dodgers in the World Series I think he would get an incredibly negative crowd reaction. Not saying he shouldn’t either, but I thoroughly enjoyed the Manny experience. He’s been my favorite Sox player to watch in my adult life and I’d just like a more positive moment to close out his relationship with Fenway.
…plus as flawed as they are, the Dodgers are proving they’re dangerous.
I’ll never understand the willingness of some Sox fans to ignore Manny’s actions to engineer his way out of Boston. Increasingly dogging it on the field? Phony injuries? (How did he miss those games in the last week, then not miss a single one in L.A.?)
Manny poisoned the well in Boston and I for one hope that the boos rain down on his head in the loudest manner possible.
I, for one, don’t ignore what a jerk he was getting himself out of Boston. But I also remember the good times, which never seemed so good.
In total agreement with Josh.
I dont think it’s that hard to understand weighing manny’s pluses with his minuses:
Pluses:
- Manny Ramirez’ line in Boston over 7.5 years (just calc’d this quickly so may be slightly off): 312/414/588
- Number of World series victories: 2
- Number of harmless, but incredibly entertaining and goofy moments: countless
Minuses:
- Last month of 2006
- June-July of ‘08
Yeah, the end was really ugly and quitting on the team in 06 was horrible, but still far and away a net positive for me.
Gate,
“Minuses::- June-July of ‘08″
Here’s the thing…Manny “totally dogging it in June of this year”: 23 GS 99 plate appearances .930 OPS
and in July when he “totally quit on the team” he only managed a pathetic 1.060 OPS in 21 games and 93 PA
Sure he didn’t run hard sometimes and ran his mouth off in the media but he still helped the Sox a LOT more than he hurt them in those last two months.
I hope The Red Sox play the Dodgers in the WS and Manny hits a few homers at Fenway to shut the fickle haters (I still hope the Red Sox win the series though…on a big game 7 homer by Jason Bay…That would be perfect)
You just know he’d bomb four or five homers and tear the arse out of the Sox’ chances. I have no stake in it either way (my son would be crushed); it would just be very entertaining. Manny’s so much fun.
Let the record show that some of us can’t stay mad at any of The Twenty-Five.
Mike Q. – to clarify, I meant more that the Jack McCormick thing and the games he sat out didnt seem innocent and fun like the usual manny stuff.
I didnt mean he had a net negative impact on the team; i dont believe that either.
Figgins gets on base actually and can run effectively. His OPS looks terrible because his power has completely evaporated, but as a lead off guy, he could satisfy the requisite peskiness. The middle of the lineup did ok in the first game overall. Dice-K gave up six runs in five innings in his start against the Angels this year.
I have to comment to say that “Buchholz Surfer” is the best screen name I’ve seen in weeks. Kudos, sir.
Also, regarding F-bombs, Pedroia had a great one in reaction to that outstanding play he made to save Buchholz’ no-no last year: he punches his mitt and clearly yells out “F*ck yeah!” Someone on SoSH made an ani-gif out of it endlessly repeating, and it was beautiful.
Remember back when people compared Howie Kendrick to a young Tony Gwynn?……yeah.
Chances of the Angels winning Game Three: 700 to 1
Besides the fact that I’m a Red Sox fan, here’s why I’m loving this series:
1. It’s proving the general point about won-loss records being deceiving. While the Angels had the best won-loss record in the AL, they also had just the 6th-best run differential, easily the worst of the teams that made the playoffs. They played the easiest schedule of all AL playoff teams. Throughout the course of the season, the Angels scored 80 fewer runs than Boston while allowing two more, and run differential is a far better indicator of post-season results than won-loss records are.
2. Frankie Rodriguez has been exposed. While he’s a good closer, he’s no more special than Nathan or Papelbon or Soria or Rivera, none of whom are going to get any Cy Young or MVP support this year. Since the voting for those awards has already happened, it’s entirely possible that he’s already won one or both of them, and I’m almost hoping that’s the case. Maybe it will be a wake-up call to the BBWAA.
Oh wait, I forgot. There’s no waking the dead.
Yeah, when Manny played he didn’t throw games (except for that curious pinch-hit against Mariano, which I will always believe was a message to the front office). But what about the out-and-out refusal to play crucial games?
You want to cheer for him? Cheer if he shows up to get his ring next April.
Now this opens up another can of worms – the “Boston tries to destroy its stars when they are on the way out of town” claim – but does anyone believe that report that Boras did in fact tell Theo that Manny would play, and play hard, if they’d just promise not to pick up his option year?
Because that is all you need to know about Manuel Aristedes Ramirez. If he hadn’t gotten his way, he would have sabotaged the season.
As for Paul’s point about run differential – another way to consider it may be to look at what one of the Foxsports.com writers pointed out a week or two ago: the better predictor of playoff success isn’t W-L record in the regular season, its strength of schedule. Iirc, top winners have something like a .462 playoff winning percentage, while teams with the toughest schedule have an over .500 mark. I don’t know the exact numbers but Boston and Tampa led in strength of schedule and it looks like they are headed to the ALCS. LAA won 100 by beating up on a poor division, and they look like they are going home.
Actually, Dan, the Angels did NOT win 100 by beating up on a poor division. They were as good against everyone else as they were in their own division. Check this out by King Kaufman:
http://www.salon.com/sports/daily/feature/2008/10/01/standings/index.html
Paul, actually the three things that are shown to be most statistically significant in predicting playoff success are: Pitcher strikeouts, having a good closer, and defense. When combining those three things, the Angels were the second best team in baseball. Number one? You guessed it: the Red Sox.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=280104
Yeah, the Sox are the better team, and I think they’ve shown that so far. But that Angels are good – they’ve been pretty unlucky in the first couple of games in that few of their hits have come with RISP. Obviously, a few extra base hits wouldn’t hurt either.
The Angels still have a shot at this. I’m not counting them out.
<i.”…Paul, actually the three things that are shown to be most statistically significant in predicting playoff success are: Pitcher strikeouts, having a good closer, and defense.”
No argument. Also not the point I was making.
All I wanted to point out was that run differential was a better predictor of the results of playoff series than won-loss record. Since the division era began in 1969, there have been 128 intra-league post-season series. The winners of those series had a won-loss record as good or better than their opponent 55.5% of the time, but those winners had a run differential as good or better than their opponent 65.6% of the time.
In short, betting on the better record is little better than a coin toss, while betting on the better run differential is a two-thirds proposition. I know which on I’d use to risk my money.
I agree daniel and paul. Is there any evidence that run differential is league specific in this era? It would be hard to convince me that the national league is as good as the AL competition-wise, and the Cubs’ run differential undercores that. theirs was the best in baseball this year by a significant margin. As for why the Cubs got beat by a Dodgers team with a +50 or so RD, I think you have to chalk it up to late-season acquisitions by the Dodgers and billy goats, or something.
Random thoughts game 2 – Manny who? Jason Bay is about to get rich, guy fits like a glove… I like the whole feel of the sox without the Manny side show… Feels like they went from a reality TV craze to a steady scripted hit… Papi looks terrible to me, I hope he hasn’t started the decline… Ellsbury continues to rake and run – I saw a piece on his base running where he was 43 extra bases ahead of the average player… Tops in the league… Becket going game 3? Doesn’t look good for Anaheim… Garret Anderson is solid, I like the guy even though his tank is on E… Vlad looks awful to me… I’d hate to have my season relying on one Vlad at bat or one Kendrick at bat…. Kendrick is lost… I think Scoscia is up there with Gardy in terms of pulling rabbits out of hats, though he does have pretty darn good Starting Pitching… Sox-Rays will be a tough series… Manny and Torre at Fenway… Bring it on.
Mike Scioscia, in his major league career, had a batting average of .259, an OBP of .344, 566 walks in 4373 at bats, OPS+ of 99, which was pretty good for a defensive catcher. He would never have lasted that long if he was not fully aware of the value of the free pass as a player, and I assume so as a manager.
Mickey Hatcher, the Angels’ hitting coach, in his major league career, had a batting average of .280, but only an OBP of .313, with 164 walks in 3377 at bats, and an OPS+ of only 89. This was terrible for a guy who was a corner player most of his career, reflecting baseball’s long fascination with batting average over much more important stats. If how you played has any reflection on how you’ll coach or manage, Hatcher is the opposite of Moneyball. And in my opinion, he’s also the opposite of good baseball thought.
I know that by the time players have reached the majors their tendencies are largely set. Few players become more patient at the big league level. But I look at the Dodgers, where Joe Torre has been preaching intelligent at bats with plans, patience, and the value of deep pitch counts all season long, and guys like Ethier in particular seeming to pick up on those concepts after Manny arrived (Martin as well) so it *can* be learned. But Hatcher’s not the guy to teach it. I don’t know how much more valuable Figgins (for one) would be with a hitting coach who gave him tips on how to walk more. The Angels have needed a smarter hitting coach for a long time, and even though Scioscia’s loyalty is a big strength of his, it’s long past time to make the switch.
Watching more of the TBS pregame and postgame stuff: Granderson and Ripken are great too. I knew Eckersly was entertaining, but if Baseball Tonight had guys like this, I might actually watch.
Richard – Figgins has increased his walk rate each of the past two seasons. He’s become a respectable leadoff man, OBP-wise. He’s been at opposite ends of the BABIP spectrum the past two seasons, but I expect him to keep that avg. at around .290, and with the amount of walks he’s taking, he should be up at a .380 OBP or so. I don’t know if this is Hatcher’s doing, but someone has told Figgins to take more walks.
I’m not saying Hatcher’s a great hitting coach – he’s not. But the Angels do have guys who have come up through the system recently who will take a walk (Napoli, Willits, Wood took some walks in the minors). Most of the guys in the everyday lineup who you would call free swingers (Vlad, Anderson, Hunter, Rivera) were all set in their ways before Hatcher had a chance to get a hold of them. And as Joe has argued, pitch selection/walking seems to be a skill more than a learned ability.
I don’t think Hatcher is free of blame, since he can be charged with not helping Aybar or Kendrick figure out the whole walking thing. But I think the player selection from the GM and scouting departments are more to blame for going after players with no track record for plate discipline.
Daniel – I don’t disagree that the Angels have an organizational philosophy to draft and develop guys who don’t walk much, but Hatcher is absolutely part of the problem. Look up any of his comments about the team’s approach at the plate and you’ll find them rife with talk of being “aggressive” and not letting the first strike go by because it may be the only good one you get, blah, blah, blah. That kind of talk is contributing to their hacktastic approach.
Just look at some of the youngsters they’ve developed. Kotchman walked 11% of his PAs in the minors, but just 7.9% with Hatcher as his hitting coach. He goes to Atlanta and is back up to 10.3%. Mike Napoli, as you cited, does have some patience, but his walk rate is down from his minor league time as well. Brandon Wood walked 9% of the time in the minors and 2.1% under Hatcher. Jose Molina came through the minors walking almost 9% of the time and that figure was cut in half under Hatcher. The most glaring example may be Dallas McPherson, who walked over 11% of the time in the minors and saw that figure drop to 6% under Hatcher. He sits out a year, goes to Triple A for the Marlins and is suddenly walking 14% of the time again.
The pattern is too pretty clear, and his comments back it up. Hatcher, for some reason, seems to clearly be preaching a philosophy that eschews bases on balls.
Here’s why I don’t get Mickey. He seems to think there are two possibilities, always swing at the first pitch or never swing at the first pitch. That isn’t what is being said at all.
Instead, what a disciplined batter does is look for a pitch in a particular place on every at bat and then only swing if the ball is in that location. Most batters understand to do this when they are ahead 2-0, 3-0 and 3-1, but the best hitters do this when the count is 0-0, 0-1, 1-1, and 2-1 too. Only with 2 strikes do those hitters get a little less picky and swing at anything that is a strike.
Jed Lowrie with the game winning hit. It occurred to me as I watched it that the Red Sox are attempting to build an entire team of 5′9″ white guys.
Scioscia with the squeeze attempt: was he trying to stick it to those Moneyball sabermetrics types with the smallball call? You know if it had worked then there would have been a ton of stories about how the gritty smallball play had worked and taught a lesson to all detractors.
Looked like a real case of overmanaging to me. Aybar ended up grounding out to first base, which, if it had gone that way without the squeeze, would have produced the lead run. Why not just let the guy knock in the run? Why take the extra risk? I usually like the squeeze, but more as a play to go from a 2 run lead to a 3 run lead, or from a 1 to 2 run lead at least, rather than as a tiebreaker.
“Jed Lowrie with the game winning hit. It occurred to me as I watched it that the Red Sox are attempting to build an entire team of 5?9? white guys.”
Jed Lowrie is six feet tall. The problem is that the clown interviewing him on the field after the game, Craig Sager, is over 6′4″.
I would guess that, as a class, 5′9″ white guys are undervalued by scouts. If I’m right, it’s ironic how they’re generally overvalued by sportswriters and TV guys. (And how announcers WANT Pedroia to be Eckstein, since they’re both short, white, second basemen who get their uniforms dirty.)
I have no point.
I think the rather predictable Scioscia decision to try a squeeze in the 9th was less borne of a need to stick it to Moneyball types with an extra helping of Scioscia ball, but rather a function of who was at the plate. Erick Aybar is not someone who can be counted on to even get a fly ball deep enough to score a fast runner from 3rd, so he decided he needed to roll the dice. Which of course leads to the question of what Erick Aybar is doing in the every day lineup of a 100 win playoff team. If you can’t even trust a batter to get a runner home from 3rd with less than 2 outs conventionally, he probably shouldn’t be in there. Conversely, anyone in the Red Sox lineup would have been more than capable of delivering that run.
I think that gets right to the heart of the difference between these two teams.
I keep hearing and reading that Aybar’s groundout would have plated the lead run. Not so folks. That’s why teams play their infields in in that situation. The ground ball would have to get past the first baseman and while that is more likely with the infield in than playing back, it’s still not a lock. It’s possible that it MAY have scored the run. Scioscia made the call and now has to live with the result. It was a gamble he was willing to take, and he lost.
Phillies – Red Sox is going to be an awesome World Series.