Comments on: Phillies vs. Brewers (11:24 pm update) http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/ Curiously Long Posts Sat, 20 Mar 2010 03:33:43 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Chip Hunter http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-35396 Chip Hunter Thu, 09 Oct 2008 09:31:29 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-35396 Agree with Joe on Sabathia. He may just get a little too wound up. He actually didn't pitch very well his first couple of starts with the Brewers (too many walks) and was all amped up by his own account. Then he settled down. I was hoping that he would be a little calmer this year, having pitched in the post-season before. I suspect that if he gets back there again he will get it figured out. Agree with Joe on Sabathia. He may just get a little too wound up. He actually didn’t pitch very well his first couple of starts with the Brewers (too many walks) and was all amped up by his own account. Then he settled down. I was hoping that he would be a little calmer this year, having pitched in the post-season before. I suspect that if he gets back there again he will get it figured out.

]]> By: Kyle Litke http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-34726 Kyle Litke Sun, 05 Oct 2008 06:23:40 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-34726 Yeah but there has to be something to that. I've always found the idea that somehow magically guys get worse in the playoffs to be nonsensical. Now if you want to say pressure situations, sure, those guys exist, but CC was coming up huge in big pressure situations at the end of the regular season. Why suddenly would the playoffs in and of themselves matter? I mean I understand what you're saying, it's just I don't really buy into the idea that guys struggle in the playoffs for the sake of them being the playoffs. I buy that guys struggle in pressure situations, but CC came up huge in some at the end of the year. Also I don't really follow the Phillies, so I'm not entirely sure how patient their team is, but it is worth mentioning that in 2007 his postseason starts were all against the Yankees and Boston, two very patient teams with a very strong offense. I'm not saying that's the sole reason and i think there's more to it, but it does bear mentioning. Yeah but there has to be something to that. I’ve always found the idea that somehow magically guys get worse in the playoffs to be nonsensical. Now if you want to say pressure situations, sure, those guys exist, but CC was coming up huge in big pressure situations at the end of the regular season. Why suddenly would the playoffs in and of themselves matter?

I mean I understand what you’re saying, it’s just I don’t really buy into the idea that guys struggle in the playoffs for the sake of them being the playoffs. I buy that guys struggle in pressure situations, but CC came up huge in some at the end of the year.

Also I don’t really follow the Phillies, so I’m not entirely sure how patient their team is, but it is worth mentioning that in 2007 his postseason starts were all against the Yankees and Boston, two very patient teams with a very strong offense. I’m not saying that’s the sole reason and i think there’s more to it, but it does bear mentioning.

]]> By: Justin http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-34675 Justin Sat, 04 Oct 2008 20:12:33 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-34675 I'm not saying that Sabathia's troubles are entirely due to some sort of anti-clutchness, but to say that the woes are due to a tired arm sort of presupposes that CC has hit the wall exactly as the playoffs have started two years in a row. That's not impossible - in both cases he's hit an insane number of innings - but his numbers from his last several starts both last year and this year are striking. The season ends, and suddenly he goes from being a Cy-calibre pitcher to being Daniel Cabrera on a bad night. I’m not saying that Sabathia’s troubles are entirely due to some sort of anti-clutchness, but to say that the woes are due to a tired arm sort of presupposes that CC has hit the wall exactly as the playoffs have started two years in a row. That’s not impossible – in both cases he’s hit an insane number of innings – but his numbers from his last several starts both last year and this year are striking. The season ends, and suddenly he goes from being a Cy-calibre pitcher to being Daniel Cabrera on a bad night.

]]> By: Kyle Litke http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-34576 Kyle Litke Sat, 04 Oct 2008 03:18:30 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-34576 Walks increasing though is almost the exact thing I'd expect to happen if he's getting tired. Yeah, his stuff could get worse too, but, while I'm no baseball player, if I try to throw with a tired arm, I can usually push myself to throw just as hard as I can when I'm fine...where that ball is going though, I've got no idea, I'm putting everything into throwing harder. Like I said, I'm no baseball player. But an increased walk rate wouldn't shock me if it is a tired arm. Walks increasing though is almost the exact thing I’d expect to happen if he’s getting tired. Yeah, his stuff could get worse too, but, while I’m no baseball player, if I try to throw with a tired arm, I can usually push myself to throw just as hard as I can when I’m fine…where that ball is going though, I’ve got no idea, I’m putting everything into throwing harder. Like I said, I’m no baseball player. But an increased walk rate wouldn’t shock me if it is a tired arm.

]]> By: Justin http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-34486 Justin Fri, 03 Oct 2008 18:38:27 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-34486 The thing that no one seems to mention about CC is that one of his many assets over the past two (regular) seasons has been that he's severely limited the number of walks he gives up. In the postseason, it's a totally different ball game. 22 walks in 25 career IP, including his two wins (one apiece in the 2001 ALDS and 2007 ALDS), in which he walked 11 guys in 11 innings. That's the kind of thing I don't think you can chalk up entirely to a small sample size. I don't know if he's trying to be too fine, if it's nerves or adrenaline or what have you, but as great as his stuff is, he ain't gonna win a lot when he's walking 7.92 per nine. And if he's missing by enough to walk that many, I'm sure he's also missing by inches enough to groove a few here and there. The thing that no one seems to mention about CC is that one of his many assets over the past two (regular) seasons has been that he’s severely limited the number of walks he gives up.

In the postseason, it’s a totally different ball game. 22 walks in 25 career IP, including his two wins (one apiece in the 2001 ALDS and 2007 ALDS), in which he walked 11 guys in 11 innings. That’s the kind of thing I don’t think you can chalk up entirely to a small sample size.

I don’t know if he’s trying to be too fine, if it’s nerves or adrenaline or what have you, but as great as his stuff is, he ain’t gonna win a lot when he’s walking 7.92 per nine. And if he’s missing by enough to walk that many, I’m sure he’s also missing by inches enough to groove a few here and there.

]]> By: roarke http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-34436 roarke Fri, 03 Oct 2008 12:30:26 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-34436 Mick: don't insult Jeff Suppan like that, he was pretty clutch in 2006 when he was the NLCS MVP for giving up only one run over 15 innings pitched. He was also pretty good in 2004 (until the World Series) and 2005, although he did stink in the NLDS in 2006 and the aforementioned ugliness in the 2004 WS. Mick: don’t insult Jeff Suppan like that, he was pretty clutch in 2006 when he was the NLCS MVP for giving up only one run over 15 innings pitched. He was also pretty good in 2004 (until the World Series) and 2005, although he did stink in the NLDS in 2006 and the aforementioned ugliness in the 2004 WS.

]]> By: Johnny http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-34396 Johnny Fri, 03 Oct 2008 07:09:16 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-34396 If Gallardo started Game 1, who starts Game 3? Teddy Higuera? Pete Vuckovich? Sabathia on one day's rest? If Gallardo started Game 1, who starts Game 3? Teddy Higuera? Pete Vuckovich? Sabathia on one day’s rest?

]]> By: TB http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-34390 TB Fri, 03 Oct 2008 06:37:55 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-34390 CC's innings pitched by year: 2001: 180.3 2002: 210 2003: 197.7 2004: 188 2005: 196.7 2006: 192.7 2007: 241 2008: 253 I think Kyle's right--it may just be that Sabathia hits a wall right around 250 IP rather than reverse clutchitude. CC’s innings pitched by year:

2001: 180.3
2002: 210
2003: 197.7
2004: 188
2005: 196.7
2006: 192.7
2007: 241
2008: 253

I think Kyle’s right–it may just be that Sabathia hits a wall right around 250 IP rather than reverse clutchitude.

]]> By: Kyle Litke http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-34381 Kyle Litke Fri, 03 Oct 2008 05:46:08 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-34381 The thing with Sabathia though, he still looked really good pitching in HUGE games down the stretch, including the essentially must win final game of the season. So I don't know how it can be pressure. I just think the work overload is getting to him. He was solid in his 2001 postseason start (yes, so long ago to be virtually meaningless, and only one game anyway). In 2007 he threw more innings than he ever had before by a lot, and now he's not only gone even higher than that (isn't he up over 250 innings not even counting todays start?), but the Brewers have simply mauled him since, getting him to the point where he leads the league in CGs by a couple despite not even coming to the NL til halfway through the season. I mean, I know they needed him pitching, but I distinctly remember a game where he had already given up 3 runs and was well over 100 pitches in the 9th, with at least one out, and the Brewers STILL had a 6 run lead, and they wouldn't bring in a reliever. That's unnecessary overkill. Plus he's been on 3 days rest four starts in a row. I know it sounds like I'm making excuses for him, and it may turn out that he's a bad postseason pitcher because he lets the pressure get to him or whatever, but the last two years I see a guy who has just been overused. He's not exactly in the greatest shape as it is. Now if next year he throws less innings, makes it to the playoffs, and gets bombed again, maybe there's something to it. But until we can eliminate the overuse variables, I'm not comfortable declaring him a poor postseason pitcher just yet. The thing with Sabathia though, he still looked really good pitching in HUGE games down the stretch, including the essentially must win final game of the season. So I don’t know how it can be pressure.

I just think the work overload is getting to him. He was solid in his 2001 postseason start (yes, so long ago to be virtually meaningless, and only one game anyway). In 2007 he threw more innings than he ever had before by a lot, and now he’s not only gone even higher than that (isn’t he up over 250 innings not even counting todays start?), but the Brewers have simply mauled him since, getting him to the point where he leads the league in CGs by a couple despite not even coming to the NL til halfway through the season. I mean, I know they needed him pitching, but I distinctly remember a game where he had already given up 3 runs and was well over 100 pitches in the 9th, with at least one out, and the Brewers STILL had a 6 run lead, and they wouldn’t bring in a reliever. That’s unnecessary overkill. Plus he’s been on 3 days rest four starts in a row. I know it sounds like I’m making excuses for him, and it may turn out that he’s a bad postseason pitcher because he lets the pressure get to him or whatever, but the last two years I see a guy who has just been overused. He’s not exactly in the greatest shape as it is.

Now if next year he throws less innings, makes it to the playoffs, and gets bombed again, maybe there’s something to it. But until we can eliminate the overuse variables, I’m not comfortable declaring him a poor postseason pitcher just yet.

]]> By: mick http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-34373 mick Fri, 03 Oct 2008 05:30:20 +0000 http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/10/02/phillies-vs-brewers-lounge/#comment-34373 I looked like a psychic. sitting in a bar..Sabathia just getting started ...'this guy is going to implode by the 3rd inning'... sure enough. He's as clutch as Aaron Sele, Jeff Suppan, and that ilk, I looked like a psychic. sitting in a bar..Sabathia just getting started …’this guy is going to implode by the 3rd inning’… sure enough.

He’s as clutch as Aaron Sele, Jeff Suppan, and that ilk,

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