Phillies vs. Brewers (11:24 pm update)
Posted: October 2nd, 2008 | Filed under: Playoffs | 18 Comments »
I love the Brewers because I love Milwaukee. I love Milwaukee because it reminds me of Cleveland. So it is with that in mind that I watched with horror and yet more than a pang of understanding while watching Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels retire the first 14 Brewers. It had been, what, 26 years since the Brewers had been in the playoffs, and their first game they have to throw a 22-year-old kid who had started four games all year and they did not reach base until the fifth inning. Yeah, that could happen to Cleveland.
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I know this is wrong — by all accounts Brad Lidge had a terrific and dominant year (how about 92 Ks in 65 innings), and he seems like a really good guy, and I just couldn’t be happier for him. But when he comes into a playoff game, like he did in Game 1, I can’t help but think, “Yeah, he could blow this.” Not he WILL blow it. Just htat he could.
It’s sort of like this: A great closer has this air of invincibility — he comes into a game, and everyone drops shoulders just slightly. Remember how in Little League, the kid with the best fastball would come into the game and everyone on the bench would shout, “Come on! We can get this guy!” But nobody really believed that. Yeah, that sort of invincibility.
And when Albert Pujols hit that ball 983 feet, well, how could it not puncture Lidge’s invincibility?
I pretty much hope I’m wrong, and Lidge doesn’t give up another hit the rest of the playoffs. I like the guy. But I just sense doom.
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I was asking Bill James if he believes there is a difference between clutch HITTING performances and clutch PITCHING performances, especially in the playoffs. And he was inclined to say that yes, he does feel like there COULD be a difference based on pitching being an action and hitting being a reaction.
I bring this up because I think that something happens to C.C. Sabathia in big games. In this case, I’m not going to bring statistics into it because I think it involves a small sample size — obviously his postseason numbers are lousy. But I’m a big C.C. fan and I’ve seen many of his games. And I just think he LOOKS different in the postseason. His body language changes. His control wavers. He does not seem to throw with the same confidence and his pitches seem to lack the same depth. I think it’s harder to tell when a hitter looks nervous.
Today, of course, he was pitching on three days rest AGAIN. I guess you could blame his performance on that. But I thought Sabathia looked just like he did last year against Boston — unsure, uneasy, nothing at all like the overwhelming presence he was in Milwaukee all yeah. When he walked Brett Myers, you just KNEW bad thins were coming. And bad things came.
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There’s been speculation on various interweb blog comment threads that Lidge is tipping his pitches. By and large the Brewers weren’t chasing the slider yesterday. Haven’t seen or heard anything to that effect in the mainstream media though.
Joe:
The Goose managaed a pretty good career after George’s upper decker in the ALCS in 1980, and I suspect the air of invincibility continued to follow him.
Eck did OK after Gibby’s HR in the Series in 1988 too. In fact, his 1989 season is pretty much the greatest closer season ever, isn’t it?
I must admit that Lidge has a bit of a Mitch Williams aura goin’ on right now. Good thing Joe Carter is retired…
Carl – A philly.com article, which I can now not find (either Enquirer or Daily News) addressed Lidge tipping pitches. The question related to the Brewers laying off his slider. His response was that, to test whether he was tipping pitches, he came back with a fastball to see if they were sitting on it. They were behind his fastball, so he eliminated tipping the slider. Makes sense, I guess.
Carl – I haven’t seen that kind of plate discipline from the Brewers (in their 9th inning) in ages. I was shocked that nobody struck out on 3 pitches. Something must have been wrong.
Victorino hits a grand slam off Sabathia in the second to put the Phillies up 5-1 – and I think this may be it for Milwaukee. Their real hope in this series was Sabathia dominating two games and finding a way to pull out one of the others, and if he’s run out of gas, so have they.
Does anyone else agree that the Philly fans cheering Myers for every ball he fouled off during his initial at bat against Sabathia was one of the best moments of season? That was just flat out fun to watch as a baseball fan. That it eventually led to Victorino’s grand slam made it all the sweeter.
Contrast that to the Cubs fans last night, who sat on their hands the whole night and lent the whole game a sense of foreboding. Message to Cubs fans–act like the Phillies fans and maybe your players will relax and play!
TB – The Myers ABs made me proud to be a Philly fan. One of the coolest things I’ve seen.
Joe – I respectfully disagree with your Lidge point. Do you really believe he still thinks about the Pujols homer? I feel like it’s as close to a sure thing as possible when he comes in. Yesterday might have been slightly different in that he shouldn’t have come into the game because Hamels was just flat out awesome. 98% of the time though, he’s bringing better stuff to the table than the guy he’s replacing (including Hamels on most nights). I think he’s certainly as good as any of the other postseason closers (and there’s certainly a good batch of closers still pitching).
Man, the Brewers offense is pretty bad…
I looked like a psychic. sitting in a bar..Sabathia just getting started …’this guy is going to implode by the 3rd inning’… sure enough.
He’s as clutch as Aaron Sele, Jeff Suppan, and that ilk,
The thing with Sabathia though, he still looked really good pitching in HUGE games down the stretch, including the essentially must win final game of the season. So I don’t know how it can be pressure.
I just think the work overload is getting to him. He was solid in his 2001 postseason start (yes, so long ago to be virtually meaningless, and only one game anyway). In 2007 he threw more innings than he ever had before by a lot, and now he’s not only gone even higher than that (isn’t he up over 250 innings not even counting todays start?), but the Brewers have simply mauled him since, getting him to the point where he leads the league in CGs by a couple despite not even coming to the NL til halfway through the season. I mean, I know they needed him pitching, but I distinctly remember a game where he had already given up 3 runs and was well over 100 pitches in the 9th, with at least one out, and the Brewers STILL had a 6 run lead, and they wouldn’t bring in a reliever. That’s unnecessary overkill. Plus he’s been on 3 days rest four starts in a row. I know it sounds like I’m making excuses for him, and it may turn out that he’s a bad postseason pitcher because he lets the pressure get to him or whatever, but the last two years I see a guy who has just been overused. He’s not exactly in the greatest shape as it is.
Now if next year he throws less innings, makes it to the playoffs, and gets bombed again, maybe there’s something to it. But until we can eliminate the overuse variables, I’m not comfortable declaring him a poor postseason pitcher just yet.
CC’s innings pitched by year:
2001: 180.3
2002: 210
2003: 197.7
2004: 188
2005: 196.7
2006: 192.7
2007: 241
2008: 253
I think Kyle’s right–it may just be that Sabathia hits a wall right around 250 IP rather than reverse clutchitude.
If Gallardo started Game 1, who starts Game 3? Teddy Higuera? Pete Vuckovich? Sabathia on one day’s rest?
Mick: don’t insult Jeff Suppan like that, he was pretty clutch in 2006 when he was the NLCS MVP for giving up only one run over 15 innings pitched. He was also pretty good in 2004 (until the World Series) and 2005, although he did stink in the NLDS in 2006 and the aforementioned ugliness in the 2004 WS.
The thing that no one seems to mention about CC is that one of his many assets over the past two (regular) seasons has been that he’s severely limited the number of walks he gives up.
In the postseason, it’s a totally different ball game. 22 walks in 25 career IP, including his two wins (one apiece in the 2001 ALDS and 2007 ALDS), in which he walked 11 guys in 11 innings. That’s the kind of thing I don’t think you can chalk up entirely to a small sample size.
I don’t know if he’s trying to be too fine, if it’s nerves or adrenaline or what have you, but as great as his stuff is, he ain’t gonna win a lot when he’s walking 7.92 per nine. And if he’s missing by enough to walk that many, I’m sure he’s also missing by inches enough to groove a few here and there.
Walks increasing though is almost the exact thing I’d expect to happen if he’s getting tired. Yeah, his stuff could get worse too, but, while I’m no baseball player, if I try to throw with a tired arm, I can usually push myself to throw just as hard as I can when I’m fine…where that ball is going though, I’ve got no idea, I’m putting everything into throwing harder. Like I said, I’m no baseball player. But an increased walk rate wouldn’t shock me if it is a tired arm.
I’m not saying that Sabathia’s troubles are entirely due to some sort of anti-clutchness, but to say that the woes are due to a tired arm sort of presupposes that CC has hit the wall exactly as the playoffs have started two years in a row. That’s not impossible – in both cases he’s hit an insane number of innings – but his numbers from his last several starts both last year and this year are striking. The season ends, and suddenly he goes from being a Cy-calibre pitcher to being Daniel Cabrera on a bad night.
Yeah but there has to be something to that. I’ve always found the idea that somehow magically guys get worse in the playoffs to be nonsensical. Now if you want to say pressure situations, sure, those guys exist, but CC was coming up huge in big pressure situations at the end of the regular season. Why suddenly would the playoffs in and of themselves matter?
I mean I understand what you’re saying, it’s just I don’t really buy into the idea that guys struggle in the playoffs for the sake of them being the playoffs. I buy that guys struggle in pressure situations, but CC came up huge in some at the end of the year.
Also I don’t really follow the Phillies, so I’m not entirely sure how patient their team is, but it is worth mentioning that in 2007 his postseason starts were all against the Yankees and Boston, two very patient teams with a very strong offense. I’m not saying that’s the sole reason and i think there’s more to it, but it does bear mentioning.
Agree with Joe on Sabathia. He may just get a little too wound up. He actually didn’t pitch very well his first couple of starts with the Brewers (too many walks) and was all amped up by his own account. Then he settled down. I was hoping that he would be a little calmer this year, having pitched in the post-season before. I suspect that if he gets back there again he will get it figured out.