dodger starters in playoffs salary bench or IR salary
millions millions
1B Loney 0.4 Nomar 9.5
2B dewitt 0.4 kent 9
3B blake 6.1
SS furcal 15.7
C martin 0.5
LF manny 20 pierre 8
CF kemp 0.4 jones 14.7
RF either 0.4
SP lowe 10 penny 9.2
SP kuroda 7.4 schmidt 15.2
SP billingsley 0.4
SP maddux 10
RP braxton 0.4

total 72.1 65.6

Also, Broxton had a 0.79 ERA in September – Saito may have been hurt, but the Dodger closer position was still a strength coming in and every bit the equal to Wood (who, by the way, had a 6.75 ERA in September), especially given Broxton’s utter dominance of righties (as noted earlier, .442 OPS against).

Agree with both you and Brent that the Phillies are a tougher matchup for the Dodgers, not so much in terms of pitching beyond Hamels (I wouldn’t trust Myers, Moyer, or Blanton too much in the postseason) as in terms of a more balanced lineup of righties, lefties, and switch-hitters.

Agree with everything you said, but maybe you understated the LH hitting of the Phillies vs. the Cubs. The Cubs best LH is ostensibly Fukudome, but in actuality by the end of the year it was Edmonds or Fontenot, one of whom is historically inconsistent and the other isn’t going to scare anyone with his power. So, load up on RH starting pitchers and neutralize the Cubs biggest bats (throw breaking balls to Soriano and Ramirez and pitch Lee away and keep him in the ballpark) and you basically have their number.

Those RH starters of the Dodgers are going to find pitching to Utley, Howard, Rollins, Victorino, Dobbs to be entirely different.

It wasn’t just that the Dodgers were bad so much of the year, it’s that the Dodgers had to play a lot of replacement players who were not as good as replacement players. Like or dislike Juan Pierre, his OBP for the year was .328, and given his lack of power he needs to get on base more like .350 to be helping the team in his 375 at bats. Furcal being back means there is no reason to give Pierre at bats as a leadoff hitter, and puts Ethier (OPS .885) in the lineup instead. If I had the Dodgers as a Strat-o-Matic team with tight innings and at bat limits, I’d expect them to finish about where they did. But I’d also expect to be able to win almost any single series I set my sights on by playing the good limited cards (Furcal, Manny, Blake) in those series. In the majors, of course, there are no at bat limits except from health and competition.

So I think that right now the Dodgers are the best they’ve been this season, and by a lot. Torre has finally figured out that Nomar is a great hitter versus LHP, and not worth playing otherwise. The pitching staff is well rested. Heck, Greg Maddux responded to long rest (eight days off) by winning his last game with 48 pitches over 6 innings, one run allowed. So maybe at his age he’s better off being a great spot starter than an every fifth day guy; he certainly has the experience to still throw strikes instead of showing rust.

Given all that, I still thought the Cubs were the better team overall. Anybody who would rather have gone into the playoffs with James Loney (OPS+ 98 for the season, great fielder who makes stupid errors) instead of Derrek Lee (OPS+ 111 for the season, and a great fielder period) is deluding themselves based on results. Soto had a better year than Martin. Furcal played in all of 40 games, and nothing he did in September prepared us for how well he has played in October. So the Cubs clearly win all five infield spots, have a better closer with Saito and Broxton being so shaky in September, and have comparable if not superior starting pitching. Outfield and middle relief ain’t enough to swing that difference, if everybody plays like they did during the season. If you are going to compare the eight batters, four starting pitchers, and closer, the Cubs looked likely to win eight of those 13 comparisons *BEFORE* you look at what actually happened in the playoffs. Then the Dodgers got a .467 OBP out of Furcal, Martin and Loney both could have been chosen as the series MVP instead of Manny, and the Cubs matched that with only one guy who hit at all well. Four hitters make an offense. One hitter makes a loser. That’s what happens in short series.

Next series? The Phillies are not as good as the Cubs, but they match up much better with the Dodgers. Their LHP significantly weakens Ethier and Loney (DeWitt’s backwards; Nomar will probably replace Loney, but he’s not as good a fielder) and they have more significant left handed hitters against the Dodgers. I’m sure the Cubs would rather have faced the Phillies, but they controlled their destiny and not only let the Brewers into the playoffs but didn’t even set up their starting pitching properly. I don’t expect the next round to be a sweep for either team. The Phillies and Dodgers played eight games after the Dodgers got Manny, with each team sweeping four games at home. I expect a tight balanced series.

Also, ignoring for a moment the fact that the Dodgers just swept the Cubs, I’d disagree with you on a couple of the positions – Soto had a better year than Martin (going into next year, I’d make them a push), and I’d say Lee and Loney are a push (but yes, for the future I’d rather have Loney). Game 1 aside, Dempster was very slightly better than Lowe, though I’d agree with some previous comments and say Billingsley’s better than Zambrano at this point. A healthy Harden is definitely better than Kuroda, and Lilly’s better than Maddux/Kershaw (at this point); that said, Broxton and Wood are a push and the Dodgers pen overall is better. By my tally, including game 3 and 4 starters, closers, and pens, that’s 6-6-1, which does bring up a good point. In their current states, these teams are very close.

The difference in the series, I think, was that the heavily right-handed Cubs lineup was actually a perfect matchup for Dodger pitching – Lowe, Billingsley, and Kuroda have OPS against vs. righties of .635, .617, and .608. Broxton’s, by the way, is a disgusting .442.

Has there ever been a World Series winner that underwent so many in-season changes? I’m not even sure you could compare the Dodgers of October to the Dodgers of, say, June or July.

Good point about Furcal. Maybe leave DeRosa and Theriot together and find a hitter for left field since the sink hole is in right.

IS IT ME OR DO THE DODGERS HAVE MORE TALENT?

Cubs should call the Mets and offer Soriano for Beltran and then sign Furcal as a free agent and go into 2009 like this:

C: Soto
1B: Lee
2B: Theriot
SS: Furcal
3B: Ramirez
LF: DeRosa
CF: Beltran
RF: Fukudome (making $12.0 million per year will at least start the year in the lineup)

SP: Zambrano, re-sign Dempster, Harden, Lilly, Samadzija
RP: re-sign Wood, Marmol, couple of free agent signings or trades