Cubs vs. Dodgers (11:16 pm update)

Posted: October 2nd, 2008 | Filed under: Playoffs | 45 Comments »

No, not everyone loves the Lovable Cubbies. Meet Bart Goatman.

* * *

You know, I hear that TNT is going to have some sort of Frank TV show coming up or something where Frank Caliendo does, you know, like impressions. I mean, shouldn’t they publicize this or something? I mean if you’re already going to invest in a show like that, it seems to me that you should let people know it’s coming.

* * *

Interesting stat on TV: Apparently American League teams that win Game 1 of the ALDS are 12-14, but National League teams that win Game 1 of the NLDS are 23-3. It’s an interesting statistic in that, “Wow, that’s interesting but I suspect it’s just a small sample size and means absolutely nothing” sort of way. So while the stat was interesting, the relatively long discussion about how maybe the American League has more depth and maybe the American League has more resilient teams didnt’ do much for me.

But it does make you ask*: Are the Cubs mortally wounded by losing Game 1? I say no — the Cubs are still the better team. BUT they obviously need a big performance from Carlos Zambrano, and man oh man, it’s scary to put 100 years of pain and the passion of Cub nation on the Red Bull himself. My only prediction is this: Zambrano will either be utterly dominant or he will absolutely suck. I don’t think there’s an in-between, not tonight, not for Carlos.

*I originally and thoughtlessly wrote “beg the question” there, even though I can honestly say I have never used that expression in my entire life. Fortunately, a couple of brilliant readers were available to rip me for it.

* * *

OK, we all know Fire Joe Morgan is beyond hilarious. But THIS might be the funniest thing that has ever been on that site, and that’s a bit like picking your favorite Richard Pryor bit. I don’t like picking on MLB.com — I’m not exaggerating when I tell you that half my wedding party works there — but holy cow, this is funny. Savino Stallone. My side hurts.

If you don’t have time to read through the link, you can also go to precisely 7:36 on the following clip. It’s more or less the same thing:

* * *

A little more on that odd statistic that shows that in the American League Division Series that team that won the first game more often than not LOST the series. This thing has happened at least once every year — until last year.

1995: The Yankees beat Seattle in the first two games — the second in 15-innings — but they were discombobulated because of a lack of Joe Torre leadership*, and the Mariners won the next three.
1996: The Rangers beat the Yankees behind a complete game from John Burkett. The Yankees sweep the next three.
1997: The Yankees beat the Indians as Jeter, Tino, Paulie and Tim Raines all homer. The Indians, though, win in five because, being the Indians, they had a World Series to blow.*
1998: The Red Sox pound the Indians 11-3 in Game 1, and the Indians sweep the next three.
1999: Red Sox revenge. Cleveland beat Boston in Game 1, the Indians scoring on Travis Fryman’s game-winning single in the ninth, but the Red Sox win in five.
2000: Yankees lose Game 1 to Oakland but win Series in 5. This will be repeated.
2001: Cleveland beats Seattle 5-0 in Game 1 — Colon throws 8 shutout innings — but Seattle comes back to win the series in five.
2001: Take 2. A’s beat Yankees in first two games and then, by the grace of Jeter,* the Yankees come back to win the series in five.
2002: Yankees beat California in first game — Bernie hits the big three run homer — but the Angels win the next three.
2003: The Twins — Santana and four relievers — beat the Yankees in Game 1 then get swept away. This too will be repeated.
2003: Oakland beats the Red Sox in the first two games but because Moneyball is not a viable playoff system* the A’s blow it and lose the next three.
2004: The Twins — Santana and one reliever this team — beat the Yankees in Game 1 then get swept away.
2005: The Yankees beat California in the first game, but the Angels win the series in five. Another pattern.
2006: The Yankees beat Detroit in the first game, but the Tigers win the series in four.

*This is irony. Or sarcasm. Whatever it is called.

* * *

Survey says: Bad Carlos.

Sigh. I cannot believe the Cubs are going to get swept out of the playoffs. Well, of course, I can and do believe it. I just mean that as an expression.

I will say that the Dodgers, with MannyBManny, with a reasonably healthy Furcal, even with the sturdiness of Casey Blake, are a much better team than their record. Lowe-Billingsley give you a really good 1-2, there are some big-time arms in that bullpen … does New York explode if Torre leads the Dodgers to the World Series title?


45 Comments on “Cubs vs. Dodgers (11:16 pm update)”

  1. 1: John G said at 8:06 am on October 2nd, 2008:

    The Goatman, that is just sad. Must be a cardinal fan that dreamed that idea up. Z will probably be on tonight and the Cubs will get it back to Wrigley for a Game 5.

  2. 2: Paul White said at 8:44 am on October 2nd, 2008:

    I’ll say this for TBS – The commercials are killing me, but the I enjoy the presentation of the game itself FAR MORE than the crap they give us on Fox. Ernie Johnson, Cal Ripken and Dennis Eckersely are a quantum leap beyond the meager talents of Jeannie Zelasko, her hair, and her sidekicks on the pre-game show, and there isn’t one set of TBS game announcers who approach the boorish prattle of Buck/McCarver.

  3. 3: Jason said at 8:45 am on October 2nd, 2008:

    Re:23-3 v. 12-14

    I suspect it’s small sample size as well. But If you were to argue that there was a cause, wouldn’t it imply LESS depth for the American League teams? I mean, think about it. Assuming two teams are evenly matched, what are the chances that one of them goes 3-1 against the other one over a 4 game set? Probably less likely than when there is one clearly superior team….and that team happens to lose the first game only to go on and take the series.

  4. 4: Jeff J. Snider said at 8:52 am on October 2nd, 2008:

    I’m a Dodger fan, so I’m not really upset about it, but isn’t it absolutely criminal that the Cubs, who have known they were in the playoffs for a month, didn’t line up their rotation so that Zambrano could start game 1? I mean, I know that Dempster had a great record, but Z is OBVIOUSLY the game 1 starter, no?

  5. 5: Mikey said at 8:57 am on October 2nd, 2008:

    Ted Lilly has been excellent lately. He’s 4-1 in his last four starts and hitters have hit .171 against him. That’s third-best in baseball (D Lowe was 2nd in Sept, Zambrano tied for 8th).

    So I don’t think the Cubs are mortally wounded. If it goes four, I think it will go five.

    Thanks for posting these DS lounges, Joe.

  6. 6: Bellweather Johnson said at 9:52 am on October 2nd, 2008:

    Would you rather have the game in the hands of Dumpster?? Good time to give up your season high in BB’s Ryn-o.

    Know who would be better on the mount than Big Z tonight? Go on guess…but you already know, don’t you.

    Lima Time.

    Believe it.

  7. 7: Brent said at 9:53 am on October 2nd, 2008:

    Jeff:

    I don’t really know if Big Z is the Cubs best pitcher right now. Harden, Dempster and Lilly have all pitched better (other than the no-hitter) than Big Z in the last month or so. And Zambrano has a “tired” arm too

  8. 8: Shane said at 10:06 am on October 2nd, 2008:

    RE: Mikey

    Lilly is not 4-1 in his last FOUR starts. That is ludacris.
    I think you start Z game one and let him rise to the occasion, then you have the other 3 to back him up if he sucks. If he sucks tonight, the series is over.

  9. 9: Brent said at 10:37 am on October 2nd, 2008:

    You guys do know that Dempster’s ERA was nearly a full run better than Zambrano’s this year, right? I know Zambrano is supposed to the ace of the staff, but since the trade for Harden, he is actually the third best starting pitcher on the team, not the best pitcher.

    In the last month, his ERA is 7.63 and that includes a no-hitter!!! The other starts he got drilled. Plus he had decreased velocity so they skipped his start not once but twice in the last month.

  10. 10: Aaron M. said at 10:45 am on October 2nd, 2008:

    I think maybe the difference in the winner of Game 1 between NL and AL would be that the strong contenders have better pitching in the NL, while the AL can overpower some of the mediocre pitchers trotted out there, so teams down 1-0 can win game 2 and get back.

    Or we could even go further and say the NL is the inferior league, and the top 2 playoff teams from there dominate the lesser teams. I don’t have time to analyze it right now, but I actually suspect this to be more of the case than my first theory.

    That is such a pronounced split it is hard to believe that it’s just “small sample size”.

  11. 11: tda said at 10:58 am on October 2nd, 2008:

    Joe, as an American journalist, you are a shepherd of the English language. Please, do not lead us astray.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begging_the_question

  12. 12: Chris said at 10:59 am on October 2nd, 2008:

    I thought you were above the media writers who molest “begs the question.”

  13. 13: John said at 11:04 am on October 2nd, 2008:

    I love Z and all that crap but unless Harden has a hangnail or something why wouldn’t we give him the ball in game 1. He’s by far our best pitcher and this would allow him to start 2 games on full rest.

  14. 14: Mikey said at 12:01 pm on October 2nd, 2008:

    Glad to see the typo police are out. Thanks Shane. You make the interweb great.

  15. 15: Bellweather Johnson said at 12:33 pm on October 2nd, 2008:

    When FJM puts out a new one, I always travel to the labels section. It’s kind of like looking at a woman’s mother to see how she’ll turn out. The better the labels, the better the article. For example, today:

    Labels: miriam pinto, mlb.com, pasta fagiole, playoffs, savino stallone, yankees

    Pretty good. This one is one of my favorites too:

    Labels: bruce jenkins, eric byrnes, eric byrnes’ motivational hairâ„¢, jeff kent, joe torre, manny ramirez, mischa barton, munchausen syndrome by proxy, ned colletti

    But put on the spot, I’d have to say this might take the cake:

    Labels: accuracyville station, buzz bissinger, underwater stupidtank to uninformed thinking island

    awesome…just awesome…

  16. 16: John R said at 1:24 pm on October 2nd, 2008:

    Just a small constructive criticism–when linking to FJM click on the times stamp at the end of their post. That will link directly to the post in question. Joe just linked to the front page which is fine now, but future generations reading this blog won’t know what specifically he found so funny.

  17. 17: Oddibe Kerfeld said at 1:40 pm on October 2nd, 2008:

    Actually, isn’t that Frank show on TBS and not TNT? Of course, with the number of ads they show perhaps its shown on both? Also, whats with him bringing in a ringer to do the Obama impersonation? Didn’t he think he could pull that one off? The quickest way to end his career (and the endless ads) would be to do a blackface I guess.

    Also, speaking of TBS, shouldn’t they have done a whole bunch of “My Boys” episodes around the Cubs this year and tied it into the playoffs? The show is about a Chicago sports reporter and each episode looks like it could be shot in about a day and edited in about two.

    P.S. I agree 100% with Paul White on the TBS coverage. The games are much better than what Fox does. Shoot, not having the Transformers sounds and graphics is worth it alone. I also like the camera work better and their graphic with the players line of the scorecard.

  18. 18: Michael (in NYC) said at 2:14 pm on October 2nd, 2008:

    Doesn’t “Interesting stat on TV: Apparently American League teams that win Game 1 of the ALDS are 12-14, but National League teams that win Game 1 of the NLDS are 23-3″ relate to what I was asking in Joe’s “I did it!” thread? I wonder if one teams in league tends to be more often lined up to use to use their “ace” pitchers. I would bet the A.L. But I was specifically told there’d be no math involved.

  19. 19: Phil Gurnee said at 5:03 pm on October 2nd, 2008:

    Billingsley has been better then big Z all year and it isn’t even close. Everyone is talking like Big Z holds the Cubs fate in his hands. He’s been the 3rd best pitcher on the Cubs in 2008. Chad has been the Dodger ace and just finished the best 22/23 combined seasons in LA Dodger history. I know who I’d rather be giving the ball to. On the bright side for Cub fans is the fact they will finally give the ball to their best pitcher in Los Angeles.
    Quick note – pressure situations Big Z opponent OPS goes up, with Chad it goes down. Is game 2 of the playoffs in front of a crowd of Cub fans who have never won a playoff series after losing the 1st game a pressure situation? You tell me.

  20. 20: Johnny said at 5:50 pm on October 2nd, 2008:

    Harden probably would have started Game 1 but they weren’t sure of his health.

    I think Joe is right about Zambrano in Game 2–but with the late starting time, that just gives Big Z more time to think about it.

  21. 21: Tim Lacy said at 7:09 pm on October 2nd, 2008:

    If Big Z starts poorly, Lilly will be in the game pronto. I wouldn’t be surprised if Lilly starts warming up the first time 2 people are on base. I really think the hook will be quick. Piniella is not the type to sit around and let an important game get out of hand. – TL

  22. 22: Fran said at 7:29 pm on October 2nd, 2008:

    Then why did he leave Dempster in so long in the 5th inning last night?

  23. 23: Kevin said at 7:49 pm on October 2nd, 2008:

    America’s Largest Outdoor Yuppie Bar seems pretty fired up tonight.

  24. 24: RJL said at 8:13 pm on October 2nd, 2008:

    ugh!?$!

    Well, as a Cubs fan that couldn’t have been much worse…7 walks, but I made it worse.

    I’m writing this the day after the game… was rushing home from work (about an hour drive) listening to the game, when loney hit the grand slam I hit my steering wheel (and the horn) hard enough to make my hand hurt. I also hit it hard enough to make the horn stick so as I’m driving down the highway at 85 mph trying to take my steering apart to unstick the horn, I get pulled over. I managed to get the horn unstuck befort the cop got to the window, and then received a $90 ticket, even though I explained I was in a hurry to get home to catch the rest of the Cubs game (must be a Cards fan).

    If that wasn’t a good enough night, I woke up this morning with a swelled up hand, after hit hurt bad enough for a couple hours at work I went to the doctor. I now sport a cast on my right hand. They better win tonight, I’ll take a broken hand for a WS win, butif they don’t get out of the NLDS……ugh, don’t want to think about it.

  25. 25: Phil Gurnee said at 8:28 pm on October 2nd, 2008:

    That ain’t happening. Been a while since I’ve seen a SS, 2nd, 1st all blow plays fairly simple plays in the same inning. Theriot forgot what the glove is for.

  26. 26: nick said at 10:16 pm on October 2nd, 2008:

    you’d think the Dodgers were like a 1 in 6 million shot to win two straight at Wrigley. they were probably, what, a 1 in 6 shot? announcers are so stupid about this stuff….

  27. 27: Wayne said at 10:48 pm on October 2nd, 2008:

    Is there any statistic that shows the average lead “inherited” in save situations? “Saving” a 1 run lead seems more difficult, and thus valuable, than a 3 run lead.

  28. 28: Preston said at 12:25 am on October 3rd, 2008:

    There are obviously some sample size issues, but it’s interesting to look at the difference in run production for the Dodgers since the trade deadline – they’re now scoring 4.7 runs a game, when previously it was 4.2. Over the course of the season, that’s about an 80 run difference, and using the baseline of 10 runs equals a win, 8 more wins. Now, a couple of those are already factored into their current record, so let’s say that the Dodgers as currently comprised are about 6 wins better than their actual record – that puts them at a much more respectable 90 wins, without even factoring in the upgrade from Berroa et al. to Furcal at short.

  29. 29: Ben said at 12:50 am on October 3rd, 2008:

    Not entirely convinced that 3 ER in 6.1 Innings = Bad Carlos. Mediocre Carlos, perhaps, but this one was really on the Cubs defense, which just fell apart behind Zambrano.

    Oh well. At least the nice thing about the Cubs going out like chumps is that I won’t have a chance to get too invested in the playoffs. I guess it’s officially football season.

  30. 30: Paul O. said at 4:40 am on October 3rd, 2008:

    I’m dumb. I don’t understand how Ken Tremendous making me laugh out loud about a pointless MLB.com article is like George Foreman dropping Gerry Cooney. Maybe because both are like shooting fish in a barrel? It was too easy or something?

  31. 31: Bobby A said at 5:58 am on October 3rd, 2008:

    I think the Cubs still have a chance. Could that mini-rally in the 9th get their bats started?

  32. 32: Gate said at 8:43 am on October 3rd, 2008:

    The one bright spot of the interminable Red Sox pre-game and postgame shows is when the Eck is on. I have to admit, considering how much I loathed him as a player, I was pretty surprised by this, but he’s entertaining and doesn’t suffer from the same self important pomposity that basically every other in studio guy tends to. Very happy to see him get national exposure.

    From what I’ve seen I agree that Ripken’s been good too.

  33. 33: Phil Gurnee said at 8:58 am on October 3rd, 2008:

    Big Z was good but even if the defense hadn’t self destructed Billingsley was better. It is a shame that the world talks about Big Z like he is some great pitcher while a great pitcher like Billinsgley is ignored. Everyone is talking about the errors and not about the great game Chad pitched. He’s been doing that all year. He’s no Lincecum but he was as good as Brandon Webb this year and I never heard one mention of his name for Cy Young while Webb’s name was all over the place. You’d think he was pitching in some small media market instead of Los Angeles.

    I said all along a healthy Furcal would be a huge difference maker. You had to watch Berroa all year to really understand how big a black hole our SS position has been offensively and defensively. With Furcal in the lineup, no weak links from 1 – 8. We are a little light with Ethier/Loney at 4/5 but we make up for it up and down the lineup and of course Manny is the greatest thing in LA since the weather.

  34. 34: Johnny said at 10:33 am on October 3rd, 2008:

    “Could that mini-rally in the 9th get their bats started?”

    Perhaps. The issue for the Cubs in Game 3 is how long Harden can last and who comes in for him when he does have to come out.

  35. 35: Ben said at 3:01 pm on October 3rd, 2008:

    @ Phil

    I agree Billingsley was better, and even without the bad D, the Dodgers win last night. I was just reponding to the idea that last night we saw “Bad Carlos”. Hell, he was the best defensive and offensive player the Cubs had.

    And give people time–they’ll come around on Billingsley. He’s been very good for two years now, and with the post-season exposure, he’ll be on most fans’ radar next year. Don’t forget that Zambrano at the same age was also drastically underrated–he was certainly seen as a lesser pitcher than Prior or Wood. Now, people have come around on Z to the point that he’s overrated, and I feel like in a year or so he’ll have been called overrated so often that he’ll be underrated.

  36. 36: Rod said at 3:08 pm on October 3rd, 2008:

    Dodgers vs. Cubs right now:
    C: Russell Martin over Geovany Soto (1-0 Dodgers; no fault of Soto’s just think Martin’s better)
    1B: James Loney over Derrick Lee (2-0 Dodgers; Lee’s never been the same player since the wrist injury; glorified Mark Grace these days; that may be where Loney ends up as well but at least there’s some upside left)
    2B: Mark DeRosa over Blake DeWitt (2-1 Dodgers; DeRosa has been great since signing with Cubs)
    SS: Rafael Furcal over Ryan Theriot (3-1 Dodgers; I understand David Eckstein won 2 World Championships but I can’t stand weak throwing shortstops)
    3B: Aramis Ramirez over Casey Blake (3-2 Dodgers; Ramirez is best player on Cubs)
    LF: Manny Ramirez over Alfonso Soriano (4-2 Dodgers; no rip on Soriano just think Ramirez is better; similar to catcher breakdown)
    CF: Matt Kemp over Jim Edmonds/Reed Johnson (5-2 Dodgers; this is debatable but if Kemp was on the Cubs he would play over the Edmonds/Johnson combo (actually he would play right with the combo remaining in center) or at the very least replace Johnson in a platoon
    RF: Andre Ethier over Kosuke Fukudome (6-2 Dodgers; no interest to pile on Fukudome but this isn’t close)
    Game 1 SP: Derek Lowe over Ryan Dempster (7-2 Dodgers; Lowe in the 2nd half has been better than Dempster and has some quality post-season experience)
    Game 2 SP: Carlos Zambrano over Chad Billingsley (7-3 Dodgers; this is Cub homerism and probably reversed if asked next year)

    IS IT ME OR DO THE DODGERS HAVE MORE TALENT?

    Cubs should call the Mets and offer Soriano for Beltran and then sign Furcal as a free agent and go into 2009 like this:

    C: Soto
    1B: Lee
    2B: Theriot
    SS: Furcal
    3B: Ramirez
    LF: DeRosa
    CF: Beltran
    RF: Fukudome (making $12.0 million per year will at least start the year in the lineup)

    SP: Zambrano, re-sign Dempster, Harden, Lilly, Samadzija
    RP: re-sign Wood, Marmol, couple of free agent signings or trades

  37. 37: Phil Gurnee said at 3:15 pm on October 3rd, 2008:

    While I love Furcal before you go and commit to him remember he just finished a 3 year deal with the Dodgers and was healthy for only 6 months out the 18 months he played for us.
    3 in 2006
    0 in 2007
    3 in 2008

  38. 38: Rod said at 3:30 pm on October 3rd, 2008:

    Phil:

    Good point about Furcal. Maybe leave DeRosa and Theriot together and find a hitter for left field since the sink hole is in right.

  39. 39: Vin said at 5:46 pm on October 3rd, 2008:

    Interesting question – if the Dodgers do win the World Series, where do they rank among the worst World Champs? One the one hand, they only won 84 games on the season, on the other, as presently constructed, the Dodgers are probably about ten wins better than that. They’re clearly better than the ‘87 Twins or the ‘06 Cards, and probably better than the 2000 Yankees.

    Has there ever been a World Series winner that underwent so many in-season changes? I’m not even sure you could compare the Dodgers of October to the Dodgers of, say, June or July.

  40. 40: Kyle Litke said at 12:26 am on October 5th, 2008:

    It is an interesting question Vin, but I do think you’re right that they’re a much better team than their record indicates, due to the in season changes. Manny Ramirez in particular was a huge change to the team that makes them much better.

  41. 41: Preston said at 9:53 am on October 5th, 2008:

    Rod, the Mets would laugh and hang up if the Cubs offered Soriano for Beltran – Beltran has been better offensively over the last three years, is far better defensively at a tougher position, and is a year younger.

    Also, ignoring for a moment the fact that the Dodgers just swept the Cubs, I’d disagree with you on a couple of the positions – Soto had a better year than Martin (going into next year, I’d make them a push), and I’d say Lee and Loney are a push (but yes, for the future I’d rather have Loney). Game 1 aside, Dempster was very slightly better than Lowe, though I’d agree with some previous comments and say Billingsley’s better than Zambrano at this point. A healthy Harden is definitely better than Kuroda, and Lilly’s better than Maddux/Kershaw (at this point); that said, Broxton and Wood are a push and the Dodgers pen overall is better. By my tally, including game 3 and 4 starters, closers, and pens, that’s 6-6-1, which does bring up a good point. In their current states, these teams are very close.

    The difference in the series, I think, was that the heavily right-handed Cubs lineup was actually a perfect matchup for Dodger pitching – Lowe, Billingsley, and Kuroda have OPS against vs. righties of .635, .617, and .608. Broxton’s, by the way, is a disgusting .442.

  42. 42: Richard Aronson said at 1:17 pm on October 5th, 2008:

    Seattle had the worst record in the AL this year, winning only 61 games. The Angels had the best record in baseball this year, with 100 victories. And yet, over the course of the season, Seattle beat the Angels five times, and actually won the first series between the two back in April. In a short series, anything can and will happen. I *think* that with Manny, the Cubs and the Dodgers were the two best teams in the National League. But it’s not just *with* Manny. It’s without Penny, who was dreadful before going on the DL for good. It’s without Jones, whose weight seems to be about 100 points heavier and his OPS+ 100 points lighter than what the Dodgers thought they were getting. It’s with Furcal instead of, well, not so much Berroa, who was by far the second best shortstop the Dodgers had this season overall, but without Chin-Lung Hu (good fielder, though) whose OPS this season was .485; without Ozuna (.617) who could not field shortstop well enough, without Maza (.561), and even with Kent coming on strong after Manny arrived (OPS for the year .745, slightly better than DeWitt) it’s with a double play combination of Furcal and Blake that prevents runs instead of allowing them. Part of the pitching improvement late comes from better middle defense, with Berroa and DeWitt providing good range up the middle, and Furcal doing better than that. It’s with Casey Blake and without Andy LaRoche; I wish LaRoche well, and I know that hand and wrist injuries frequently take more than a year to fully regain the timing, but he wasn’t a big league hitter this season.

    It wasn’t just that the Dodgers were bad so much of the year, it’s that the Dodgers had to play a lot of replacement players who were not as good as replacement players. Like or dislike Juan Pierre, his OBP for the year was .328, and given his lack of power he needs to get on base more like .350 to be helping the team in his 375 at bats. Furcal being back means there is no reason to give Pierre at bats as a leadoff hitter, and puts Ethier (OPS .885) in the lineup instead. If I had the Dodgers as a Strat-o-Matic team with tight innings and at bat limits, I’d expect them to finish about where they did. But I’d also expect to be able to win almost any single series I set my sights on by playing the good limited cards (Furcal, Manny, Blake) in those series. In the majors, of course, there are no at bat limits except from health and competition.

    So I think that right now the Dodgers are the best they’ve been this season, and by a lot. Torre has finally figured out that Nomar is a great hitter versus LHP, and not worth playing otherwise. The pitching staff is well rested. Heck, Greg Maddux responded to long rest (eight days off) by winning his last game with 48 pitches over 6 innings, one run allowed. So maybe at his age he’s better off being a great spot starter than an every fifth day guy; he certainly has the experience to still throw strikes instead of showing rust.

    Given all that, I still thought the Cubs were the better team overall. Anybody who would rather have gone into the playoffs with James Loney (OPS+ 98 for the season, great fielder who makes stupid errors) instead of Derrek Lee (OPS+ 111 for the season, and a great fielder period) is deluding themselves based on results. Soto had a better year than Martin. Furcal played in all of 40 games, and nothing he did in September prepared us for how well he has played in October. So the Cubs clearly win all five infield spots, have a better closer with Saito and Broxton being so shaky in September, and have comparable if not superior starting pitching. Outfield and middle relief ain’t enough to swing that difference, if everybody plays like they did during the season. If you are going to compare the eight batters, four starting pitchers, and closer, the Cubs looked likely to win eight of those 13 comparisons *BEFORE* you look at what actually happened in the playoffs. Then the Dodgers got a .467 OBP out of Furcal, Martin and Loney both could have been chosen as the series MVP instead of Manny, and the Cubs matched that with only one guy who hit at all well. Four hitters make an offense. One hitter makes a loser. That’s what happens in short series.

    Next series? The Phillies are not as good as the Cubs, but they match up much better with the Dodgers. Their LHP significantly weakens Ethier and Loney (DeWitt’s backwards; Nomar will probably replace Loney, but he’s not as good a fielder) and they have more significant left handed hitters against the Dodgers. I’m sure the Cubs would rather have faced the Phillies, but they controlled their destiny and not only let the Brewers into the playoffs but didn’t even set up their starting pitching properly. I don’t expect the next round to be a sweep for either team. The Phillies and Dodgers played eight games after the Dodgers got Manny, with each team sweeping four games at home. I expect a tight balanced series.

  43. 43: Brent said at 10:15 am on October 6th, 2008:

    Richard:

    Agree with everything you said, but maybe you understated the LH hitting of the Phillies vs. the Cubs. The Cubs best LH is ostensibly Fukudome, but in actuality by the end of the year it was Edmonds or Fontenot, one of whom is historically inconsistent and the other isn’t going to scare anyone with his power. So, load up on RH starting pitchers and neutralize the Cubs biggest bats (throw breaking balls to Soriano and Ramirez and pitch Lee away and keep him in the ballpark) and you basically have their number.

    Those RH starters of the Dodgers are going to find pitching to Utley, Howard, Rollins, Victorino, Dobbs to be entirely different.

  44. 44: Preston said at 11:50 am on October 6th, 2008:

    Richard, I think overall you’re pretty much right on it, but a couple nits I must pick: I don’t think Theriot over Furcal, even with the latter being an unknown due to injury, is a slam dunk, given that a healthy Furcal is a far superior player offensively and defensively. Going into the series, I would call them a pick ‘em – it’s safe mediocrity (perhaps slightly above-average) vs. anything from star to hobbled and immobile.

    Also, Broxton had a 0.79 ERA in September – Saito may have been hurt, but the Dodger closer position was still a strength coming in and every bit the equal to Wood (who, by the way, had a 6.75 ERA in September), especially given Broxton’s utter dominance of righties (as noted earlier, .442 OPS against).

    Agree with both you and Brent that the Phillies are a tougher matchup for the Dodgers, not so much in terms of pitching beyond Hamels (I wouldn’t trust Myers, Moyer, or Blanton too much in the postseason) as in terms of a more balanced lineup of righties, lefties, and switch-hitters.

  45. 45: wiener said at 2:27 pm on October 7th, 2008:

    So I know we hear a lot about how the Dodgers GM (Colleti) is getting credit now when he shouldn’t be because he made a shit load of mistakes. I was curious the payroll of the starters compared to the guys that are not playing that colleti signed for big bucks. The playoff starting lineup, including 4 starting pitchers and their closer, is only 6.5 million less that the 6 big mistakes that aren’t playing (see below). And this is including Manny’s 20 mill salary, which actually the dodgers aren’t paying, so that moves it to 12 million under the 6 big mistakes. Also it should be noted that Rafael furcal and his 15.2 mill salary are starting now, even though he missed 122 games this season. If you replace him with berroa, then it really looks ridiculous.

    dodger starters in playoffs salary bench or IR salary
    millions millions
    1B Loney 0.4 Nomar 9.5
    2B dewitt 0.4 kent 9
    3B blake 6.1
    SS furcal 15.7
    C martin 0.5
    LF manny 20 pierre 8
    CF kemp 0.4 jones 14.7
    RF either 0.4
    SP lowe 10 penny 9.2
    SP kuroda 7.4 schmidt 15.2
    SP billingsley 0.4
    SP maddux 10
    RP braxton 0.4

    total 72.1 65.6


Leave a Reply