I did it! Well maybe it was me!

My Sports Illustrated column this week is about Albert Pujols and how I’m not exactly certain why some people miss what seems pretty obvious: The guy’s far and away the best player in baseball

But, I have achieved something much, much greater. Maybe.

I have made Baseball Reference, the greatest baseball thing ever, even better.

Maybe.

Here’s what happened: I was trying to come up with a list of great players who were taken in the later rounds of the amateur draft — say 10th round and later. As you no doubt know, Albert Pujols was a 13th-round pick*. And I knew off the top of my head that Ryne Sandberg was a late pick (20th round), and Mike Piazza was famously late (62nd). But I wanted a more complete list.

*I found — and I write about this in the SI column — that the Royals actually selected SEVENTEEN PLAYERS before Albert Pujols was drafted. The mind staggers. One of those was a guy named Gregg Raymundo, who was actually a star in the short-lived and somewhat lamentable Israeli Baseball League (in full disclosure, I was very close to writing a book about that year in the Israeli Baseball League. It would have been a fun book, I think. It would have sold 12 copies. I expect the Reds book to sell at least 14. Did I mention I was working on a book about the 1975 Reds?). Another was one of my favorite players and people, a guy by the name of Tony Cogan — I’m sure I’ve told this story before, but it’s worth repeating just so people who have not had the opportunity to watch the Royals can know what it has been like.

The year was 2001 and Cogan, a bright and friendly guy from Stanford, had a brilliant spring. He was a left-handed relief pitcher with a lot of guts. His spring was so brilliant that the Royals kept him on the roster despite the fact that he had only pitched in two games above Class A baseball (and his Class AA ERA in those two games was 11.59 — his performance in Class A wasn’t all that great either). It was a great little story. For about two hours.

On Opening Day that year, the Royals played at Yankee Stadium. The previous five years, the Royals had gone 14-38 against the Yankees, including 1998 when they went 0-10. The Yankees battery that day was Roger Clemens, perhaps the greatest pitcher in baseball history, and Jorge Posada, . The Royals’ battery was Jeff Suppan and Hector Ortiz.

Still, for the first five and a half innings or so, the Royals were very much in the game. In fact, going into the bottom of the sixth, the Royals led 2-1 — thanks to a Jermaine Dye homer. Unfortunately for Kansas City, Bernie Williams hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the inning to give the Yankees the lead back. Then Suppan, a bit spooked perhaps, walked David Justice and Tino Martinez back to back. Two on, nobody out, 3-2, Yankee Stadium, Opening Day. Jorge Posada coming up.

And Royals manager Tony Muser took this moment to bring out Tony Cogan for his first Major League appearance.

Muser would later say he was bringing in the left Cogan to “turn around Posada,” which would make a lot of sense except for this:

Posada as a left-handed hitter: .267/.379/.469.
Posada as a right-handed hitter: .299/.383/.498.

Even if it had made sense, of course, it would not have made sense. Why would you bring Tony Cogan, spring training phenom, young pitcher who has never even pitched in Wichita, much less Fresno, much less Albuquerque, much less Nashville, much less Memphis, much less Tampa, much less Detroit, much less YANKEE FREAKING STADIUM, into that situation. But he did. And Posada hit the inevitable blast over the left-field wall. Then, after an out, there was a single, and a walk, and Tony Cogan was taken out of his first game. On May 11, he was sent to the minors with an 8.18 ERA and five home runs allowed in 11 innings. He sent me an email not too long ago — he was pitching in the Northern League. I don’t know if it could have been different for Tony Cogan. But I have my suspicions.

Sorry, got off-track there. I wanted a more complete list of late-round stars. So I wrote to Sean Forman, super-genius behind Baseball Reference. He wrote back a few minutes later and said: “I just added this at your suggestion to the season finders. Draft Round is now listed just below the height and weight in the criteria in the far right columns.”

Yeah, that’s right. Now you can go to Baseball Reference’s Play Index and search for people based on their draft position. HOW COOL IS THAT? And … it was BECAUSE OF ME (maybe … get to that in a second). So now, if you want to know: Hey, who are the top 10 OPS+ hitters drafted after the 10th round? Well …

1. Albert Pujols, 170 OPS+ (13th round)
2. Jim Thome, 148 OPS+ (13th round)
3. Travis Hafner, 142 OPS+ (31st round)
4. Mike Piazza, 142 OPS+ (62nd round)
5. Brian Giles, 139 OPS+ (17th round)
6. Jack Clark, 137 OPS+ (13th round)
7. Gene Tenace(!), 136 OPS+ (20th round)
8. Jose Canseco, 132 OPS+ (20th round)
9. Jason Bay, 130 OPS+ (22nd round)
10. Kent Hrbek, 128 OPS+ (17th round)
(tie) Keith Hernandez, 128 OPS+ (42nd round)

After that, because I think you will want to know, is Don Mattingly (19th round), Oscar Gamble (16th round — signed by Buck O’Neil) and the aforementioned Jorge Posada (24th round).

Seriously, is that awesome or what? Now, if you I want to know which pitcher selected after the 10th round had the best ERA+ (Quiz — who was not even drafted), or who was the best player selected in every round, or which shortstop taken in the 28th round made it — it’s all possible and easy. And it’s all because of me. Yeah. Celebrate me.

Two things, though.

1. It does occur to me that Sean Forman may be pulling my leg here and that draft position was available in Baseball Reference searches before my email and he was just trying to make me feel like was contributing. If so … I don’t care, I’m still taking credit.

2. I notice this morning that the Play Index search is not working right. So … I might have broken the thing. I’m sorry.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 1st, 2008 at 9:30 am.
Categories: Baseball.

42 Comments, Comment or Ping

michael johnson

fantastic stat. The question is, how, if it all, will it affect how teams draft?

Oct 1st, 2008
Brent

Joe, that is awesome. And I agree: Baseballreference.com is the best thing since sliced bread.

And since you (briefly) mentioned Jim Thome, let me say that it is heartening to see a 38 year old ballplayer who makes upwards of 15 million/year hit a HR and then return to the dugout grinning ear to ear like a 10 year old Little Leaguer that just hit his first HR ever.

Oct 1st, 2008
Steve B

Brent -

As a Twins fan that was not heartening. I’m glad Thome (by all accounts one of the best people in baseball) was successful. But I dearly wish he wasn’t so happy last night.

Oct 1st, 2008
Fabio

I think the baseball draft is much more of a crapshoot than basketball and football. Can’t wait to hear about the late round pitchers.

Oct 1st, 2008
Tim Lacy

JP,

I think Sean Forman was pulling your leg! ..Just kidding. …Get it?

Now that this can be done, we need some startling stories about low-level Royals picks who have done well. Or, what round of picks has historically been the best for the Royals? The worst?

- TL

Oct 1st, 2008
Sean

Notice anything about the guys on that list? A lot of them are “bad body” guys. Big guys, not much speed, and some of them were poor defensively (Thome, Clark, Piazza, Canseco, Hafner).

Oct 1st, 2008
Trieu

Your RSS feed for SI is broken (well, just missing, really).

http://rss.cnn.com/rss/si_joe_posnanski.rss

I don’t suppose you can ask one of the geeks at SI.com about this? The feed would make it easier for us to keep up with your work for SI. Thanks!

Oct 1st, 2008
Brent

Tim L.:

Well, here is my all-Time Royals team with their draft pick round and team in parentheses:

C: Mike McFarlane (4th Round Royals)
1B: Mike Sweeney (10th, Royals)
2B: Frank White (undrafted, Royals)
3B: George Brett (2nd, Royals)
SS: Freddie Patek (22nd, Pirates)
OF: Carlos Beltran (2nd, Royals)
OF: Amos Otis (5th, Red Sox)
OF: Willie Wilson (1st, Royals)
DH: Hal McRae (6th, Reds)
SP: Paul Splittorf (25th, Royals)
SP: Dennis Leonard (2nd, Royals)
SP: Kevin Appier (1st, Royals)
SP: Bret Saberhagen (19th Royals)
ReP: Dan Quisenberry (undrafted Royals)

It appears the 2nd round has been the kindest round for the Royals (Brett, Leonard, Beltran listed here plus Mark Gubicza, Steve Busby, Bob Hamelin (OK he is a one hit wonder, but what a hit))

The steal of all time for the Royals, other than undrafted guys like White and Quiz, was Al Cowens, drafted in the 75th round in 1969.

Oct 1st, 2008
TD

Yeah, there’s a reason I changed the channel when Blackburn got behind Thome 2-0. I switched back in time to see the dad from The Incredibles high fiving and butt bumping in the Sox dugout. Bah.

Oct 1st, 2008
The Rancher

Who is Ryan Sandberg?

Oct 1st, 2008
Brent

HOFers in the draft era (first draft was 1965)

Goose Gossage 9th round
Tony Gwynn 3rd round
Cal Ripken 2nd round
Bruce Sutter undrafted (OK there is one miss)
Wade Boggs 7th round
Ryne Sandberg 20th round
Dennis Eckersley 3rd round
Paul Molitor 1st round
Gary Carter 3rd round
Eddie Murray 3rd round
Ozzie Smith 4th round
Kirby Puckett 1st round
Dave Winfield 1st round
Carlton Fisk 1st round
George Brett 2nd round
Nolan Ryan 12th round
Robin Yount 1st round
Mike Schmidt 2nd round
Reggie Jackson 1st round
Tom Seaver undrafted ??? Well, not really. Don’t know the story behind it, but Dodgers drafted him in 10th round in 1965 and he didn’t sign and then Braves drafted as a 1st round supplemental in 1966 and that pick was voided and then somehow the Mets got to sign him as a free agent. Seems fishy
Johnny Bench 2nd round

To date the highest draft pick to make the HOF was Reggie Jackson, who was the 2nd overall pick, but Junior and ARod were both 1st overall picks in the draft, so that will change someday.

Oct 1st, 2008
Kevin

OMG, I think I’ve been converted! Or at least brainwashed. My first thought upon seeing “Blackburn got behind Thome 2-0″ was that it was an FA or UEFA score. Holy smokes! What’s happening? Why is the room spinning? Is it because the Cards didn’t make the post-season? Will I develop a craving for fish & chips? Will I start referring to people as “blokes”? This is most disturbing…

Oct 1st, 2008
Johnny

Brent - There was a drawing held by the commissioner in Seaver’s case and the Mets won it. I think both teams had a claim on him somehow. Seaver wrote about it decades ago so I can’t remember the details.

Oct 1st, 2008
Aryeh

How about this, Joe. If you write the book about the IBL I’ll personally guarantee you 20 books sold.

Let’s see someone in Cincy top that!

Aryeh (in Israel)

Oct 1st, 2008
Oddibe Kerfeld

I’m ready for game one of the Astros vs. Cubs NLCS tonight. Houston had a better record than any team in the NL West today or in the 1993 configuration (even if you added in AZ and CO.) Oh well.

Oct 1st, 2008
Michael

Referring back to the chart in the SI.com column, you claimed to have listed the top 5 in the American League in VORP. However, you only listed the position players. Cliff Lee and Roy Halliday and #1 and #2 in the league and Jon Lester also ranks among the AL league leaders.

No, I don’t expect a pitcher to actually win the AL MVP award, but if you’re going to cite the VORP leaders, it seems they should be mentioned.

Oct 1st, 2008
Michael

Nice data, Brent. Mike Piazza will eventually be in the Hall of Fame and will set a mark for the lowest pick among those who were drafted.

Oct 1st, 2008
Steve

Great article. However, you didn’t even touch on Albert’s Defense. The man has a great glove. Sure, I’m partial because I am a Saint Louis Cardinals life long fan. However, I watch a lot of baseball and there are not a lot of First Basemen with gloves like his.

Oct 1st, 2008
Michael (in NYC)

I guess I have to start modifying my name since there’s at least one other Michael around. We come in six packs now.

I’m not sure I’m going to be able to get this out correctly, but I was thinking about opening games of playoff series and how teams try to line up their pitching staffs. The default position seems to be that both teams pitch their ace. What I’m wondering is if there’s a case to be made for one team, probably the visiting team, to not pitch the ace in that first game. To, in effect, cede that game. Because my guess here is that when both teams pitch their ace (define how you want: ERA, ERA+, WHIP, IP), generally the home team will win more often unless there’s just a huge difference in quality between the teams or their aces.

Sometimes (as with Phillies-Brewers today), one team _can’t_ pitch its ace because of scheduling. I wonder how often this ace is able to offset homefield advantage in the second game and guarantee a split–or hopefully take advantage of homefield, um, advantage and try to guarantee a sweep of the home games after the no. 2 guy gets the W in the first game (though this would be a really rare situation since generally the teams who have to battle all the way and can’t line up their starters are not going to have homefield advantage).

Anyway, I’m not sure how to go about looking at this, but I feel like there’s something there. A hypothesis to test, at least, that pitching your “ace” in game 1 might not always be the best idea, esp. if your team is on the road and also esp. if the other team also has a real ace. I guess you’d have to look at how often in “ace vs. ace” game 1s the home team wins and then look further at who wins the no. 2 vs. no. 2 games and so on and see if homefield seems to be the deciding factor in a pitchers duel. Then look at how teams that don’t pitch their ace in game 1 tend to do in the second games, how often they come away with a split, and how they do in the home games–and the series, of course.

Does any of this make sense? Joaldo? Others?

Michael

Oct 1st, 2008
Sam

Great article on Pujols.

You know what surprises me the most? (And keep in mind, I am a Cardinals fan.) The fact that, not only is Pujols under appreciated among baseball as a whole, but the fact that he is under appreciated among Cardinal fans, too.

Seriously, his ‘07 season (while in no way was it close to his best, it wasn’t half bad) made me wonder if half of us were watching the same player.

I cannot tell you how many times I heard someone say, ‘Pujols just doesn’t have it anymore.’ Or, ‘I wonder if he’s in his career decline,’ Or, my personal favorite, ‘What could they get for him? Might as well trade him before his value plummets.’ It was unbelievable.

Way into the future, when Pujols has his name on a HOF Nomination ballot somewhere, people are going to look back at his numbers and realize how great he truly was. They won’t see someone who put up 2-3 seasons with 50+ homers, or someone who hit .360 one season, while they averaged out around .290 for their career. They won’t see those career years.

They will simply see a career filled with years and years of .330 average, 35+ HR’s, and 100+ RBI’s every year. They’ll see consistency. He’s incredible.

Oct 1st, 2008
ajnrules

Yeah, I have a feeling Ryan Howard will win the NL MVP award Pujols deserves for the second time in three years. This means Ryan Howard would have won two MVP awards to Pujols’s one…but I for one would never take Howard over Pujols.

Oct 1st, 2008
AlbaNate

Thanks for that great photo of Oscar Gamble. I didn’t remember him as having such good stats, but I looked him up on baseball-reference.com after seeing your mention of him, and his numbers look pretty solid…and a pretty long career. I didn’t remember that he was still active in 1985.

Nate

Oct 1st, 2008
Fran

Oh g*sh d*rn it! Is this how Seattle won 118 games (or whatever) and not the World Series? Was Lou leaving Dempster in so he could get the Win? Well, now he won’t! I give up!

Oct 1st, 2008
Buchholz Surfer

Apropos of very little, in British (proper) English, the plural of staff is staves. So I think we should call pitching staffs pitching staves.

Oct 1st, 2008
Buchholz Surfer

Speaking of going off on a tangent, I have defended Gardenhire on this blog several times, and I still think he’s a good manager, but last night in the 8th inning down 1, tying run on first, your team is dying for a run with the season on the line, and Nick Punto is due up. Don’t you have to pinch hit for him there?

Or at least try a hit and run? Something. How can you let Nick Punto swing away and hit into a double play?

I don’t know who if anyone was available to pinch hit, so maybe it wasn’t that bad. All I know was I was listening to the game and thinking Nick Punto? 8th inning? Really??

I still think Gardenhire is very good at getting good results from teams with not much overall talent– and by talent, I mean the nuts and bolts of the roster before the season starts. Who here predicted before the season that this Twins roster was good enough to force a playoff game? Gardenhire got a lot out of that roster and that’s his job. But I can see why people aren’t fans of his game strategies.

How much of a manager’s job is game strategy is another question.

Oct 1st, 2008
andrea

@Buchholz Surfer

staves is only the plural form when it is a referring to a stick, not a group of people.

Oct 1st, 2008
Gate

I don’t have much to add re: the staff v. staves debate (except that my 100% God-fearing, red-blooded American computer doesn’t recognize “staves” as a word), but to an earlier point: it is pretty incredible that Ryan Howard might win 2 MVPs in a time when a far superior player plays the same position in the same league AND had a better year for a winning team in both years.

Oct 1st, 2008
westonwr

http://thecusterdome.blogspot.com/2008/08/royal-road_21.html

http://thecusterdome.blogspot.com/2008/09/royals-report-card-2008.html

Oct 2nd, 2008
Michael (in NYC)

Andrea is right. Even the OED (which, let’s face it, is British) says, when it gets to the set of definitions about “A body of persons employed, under the direction of a manager or chief,” etc., “(Pl. always staffs.)”

So there we go.

Oct 2nd, 2008
John

baseballreference is great, some times to great if you start looking at while at work.

If you like hockey there is a web site similiar called internet hockey data base.

Oct 2nd, 2008
Buchholz Surfer

Damn. I yield on that one.

But I am still going to say pitching staves around my friends, but they are used to that kind of thing, they will probably pretend to not notice.

Oct 2nd, 2008
PhiskPhan

@Buchholz Surfer: Stick to saying “staves.” It sounds right –and it’s fun. I always say “rooves” (the plural of “hoof” is “hooves,” after all), and the other day I told my young nephews to get off their “doves.”

Oct 2nd, 2008
Miles

Funny that you mention the story about Tony Cogan. I saw him pitch on opening day for the Gary Railcats. He was throwing in the low 80’s and I was amazed that he ever played affiliated baseball.

Oct 2nd, 2008
lisa

joe,

can’t NOBODY tell a story even half as well as you can.

As for Albert Pujols, well, you listen to the media on the radio and the only RH hitters they talk about are mannyBmanny and arod. I can’t count how many times i’ve heard “experts” argue about who is the greatest RH hitter of this decade and they ONLY mention those 2. As one expert said, after the host brought up pujols - well, i only watch the AL.

“expert” my butt…

and albert, unlike arod, doesn’t choke under pressure.
and albert, unlike manny, is not merely a good fielder, but an awesome one.

interesting story about tony cogan. poor guy. muser is one of the 3 worst managers i have seen in my lifetime. managers are supposed to put young guys in a position to SUCCEED.

i never understood how on earth he ever got a managing job in the first place, let alone kept it for so many years…

Oct 2nd, 2008
Mike

You know what is even more disgusting about the Royals passing on Pujols? He played High School ball in Independence. He played college ball at Maple Woods! He asked the Royals to draft him because he wanted to play for his new hometown…nah, we’re not interested. You’re not good enough for a freakin’ 12th round pick. From what I understand his family still lives in KC.

All I can say is thank goodness we have a real GM now.

Oct 2nd, 2008
Miles

Talking to scouts, I’ve heard they laughed when they saw tapes of Pujols play. Apparently he was overweight and could barely play defense. I guess the Cards gave him a personal trainer after they drafted him and got him into shape. And the rest is history.

I don’t really blame other teams for passing over him.

Oct 2nd, 2008
Sean Forman

Joe,

It was a one-time thing as I had to temporarily modify some db tables to get it to work. I’ve added it back since we are at the end of the year now.

Oct 2nd, 2008
nightfly

@Buchholz - first, awesome blog handle. Second, about Nick Punto - I had a similar reaction in the eighth inning of the Mets’ last game… I turned to my wife and asked, “Why, under any possible circumstances, would you willingly choose Scott Schoeneweis to pitch to a right-handed hitter? Ever?”

“Why do you ask that?” my wife replied.

Two pitches later, the ball was heading towards Ontario. But sure, lets all keep blaming Willie Randolph…

Oct 2nd, 2008
Adam

I think it’s interesting that if you click on what round someone was drafted, you can then see who else was drafted in that same round.

Oct 2nd, 2008
Isaac

Thanks for bringing up that Tony Muser logic. It lets me know that maybe, just maybe, Hillman isn’t the worst manager in the history of the Royals. By the end of the year, I was confident that he was the absolute worst. Worse than Muser, Buddy, and anyone else you could come up with. Can there be a tie for first?

Oct 2nd, 2008
Man in Black

THE true story about Albert Pujols and the Royals. **This is actually true**
My cousin was a scout for the Royals for a few years, and is now a scout for another MLB team. He also worked as a coach for some local college teams and summer teams. Anyway, he coached in a league against Pujols before Pujols was drafted by the Cards. He tells me that the Royals were all over Pujols, and the Royals very much wanted to draft Pujols (who was quite overweight, but hit a TON*) but the Royals wanted Pujols to sign for $1,000 (like Aviles), but Pujols wouldn’t go for it. So the Royals passed, hoping that Albert would go undrafted and they could try to persaude him to sign after the draft. The Royals of that time were really a hidious organization. To borrow from ‘Aminal House’, “Ultra cheap and stupid is no way to run a baseball team”

*So my cousin is the manager for one of these summer teams and is against Pujols’ team. It gets to be the bottom on the ninth, with a man on, Pujols’ team down by a run, and Albert steps to the plate. My cousin decides to pitch to Albert (even then teams were afraid to pitch to him) because it is the brave thing to do. Albert hits the bomb, game over.

Oct 3rd, 2008
Deaner

Superb SI piece Joe!

Oct 5th, 2008

Joe Posnanski