Obscure Stats, Take 1
Posted: September 28th, 2008 | Filed under: Baseball, Other Sports | 46 Comments »
It’s gonna be a busy book-writing week, so we probably won’t have any lengthy posts. But I’ll try to post a little a few little things, tidbits, obscure stats, jokes, whatever.
We’ll start here: Four players in baseball history have put together this odd combination: 25 homers, 25 stolen bases, 40 doubles, more than 110 RBIs and 110 runs scored. They are:
1. Larry Walker in 1997. Of course, that was at Coors Field, so it’s pretty tainted, but he hit .366 with 46 doubles, 49 homers, 130 RBIs, 143 runs scored and 33 stolen bases. That’s not a season. That’s a video game.
2. Ellis Burks in 1996. Of course, THAT ALSO was at Coors Field, so, you know. He hit .344 with 45 doubles, 40 homers, 128 RBIs, 142 runs scored and 32 stolen bases. You know, it’s easy to forget just how wacky things were at Coors Field.
3. Barry Bonds in 1998. I’m a bit surprised that Barry didn’t do this more than once, but Barry never was a great doubles hitter — this is the only time he ever hit 40 doubles in a season. He never finished in the league’s Top 5 in doubles. I don’t know what that measn, but anyway in 1998, Barry Bonds hit .303 with 44 doubles, 37 homers, 122 RBIs, 120 runs and 28 stolen bases. That was also the year he finished a distant eighth in the MVP voting, way behind Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire. That was supposedly the year said, “Um, bleep this all around bleep, give me some flaxseed.”
4. Carlos Beltran in 2008. Yes, now we get to the point. Carlos hit .284 with 40 doubles, 27 homers, 112 RBIs, 116 runs scored and 25 stolen bases. It’s not as good a year as the first three, but he did not have Colorado light air or the great hitting environment of the late 1990s. I’m not sure that Carlos Beltran had a GREAT year in the way that we would normally describe greatness. His OPS+ was 131 which is certainly very good (especially for a Gold Glove quality center fielder) but hardly historic. He had 27 Win Shares, which is good and was tied for third in the National League. He’s VORP was 55.8 runs, which again is quite good but well behind some others.
So, no I don’t think it was a GREAT year. But it was a great year, lower case letters, because I don’t know that anyone else could have done it. Maybe Curtis Granderson. Maybe Grady Sizemore. Anyway, I’ve always loved the athletes who fill all the columns on the stat sheet — I’m a huge fan of the triple-double (or the rare quadruple double*) — which is reason No. 349 why I love Beltran.
*There have been four official quadruple doubles in NBA history — Nate Thurmond, Alvin Robertson, Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson. What isn’t as well known is that Hakeem actually pulled off a quadruple double twice IN THE SAME MONTH. That was March 1990, and the one everyone recognizes was on March 29, when he had 18 points, 16 boards, 10 assists and 11 blocks.
But earlier than month, he had a game where he had 29 points, 18 rebounds, 10 assists and 11 blocks. Trouble is at first the scoresheet said he had NINE assists, denying him the triple double. Later after they reviewed video they (of course) found that 10th assist in there — it was probably one of the leftover phantom assists from John Stockton’s career. But the NBA will not recognize it.
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My votes on the poll…..Pujols, Halladay, Mauer, Sabathia. The only ones I feel dead-on sure about are Pujols and Halladay.
Bonds’ ‘98 line also came in an expansion year.
And, of course, none of the four guys mentioned made the playoffs in those seasons.
i won’t use the word BEST, because it’s not as if i can recall every cy young race in baseball history, but this is has been an incredible run for the national league’s award. if i had a vote, it would ge to johan, and somehow i’d have to leave either lincecum, sabathia, or webb off my ballot entirely. wow.
Lincecum, Pujols, Halladay, and Youkilis.
Lincecum edged out Sabathia on account of having played for a pretty crappy team and having a better record with a much higher K/9 while pitching in the NL for the whole season. In the battle of the tiny pitchers, Santana was slightly less dominant across the board.
Pujols is obvious. His AVG being higher than Howard’s OBP should be enough.
Halladay edges out Lee, who were very close. Halladay’s 9 complete games to Lee’s 4 didn’t hurt. Lee got 6.13 runs of support when he pitched (6th in baseball from qualified pitchers) to Halladay’s 4.72 (56th). One led all of baseball in ERA. The other led in WHIP. Lee’s K/9 and K/BB were both lower than Halladay’s.
Youkilis had a helluva year, and stuck out the most of the AL candidates–none of whom are particularly exciting candidates this year.
I really hate stats.
“Schwartz has hit more sacrifice flies than any other left-handed Lutheran pinch-hitter since Tommy Saxton’s stellar year with the Houston Colt .45s in 1962….”
I mean, really…
There are just too many variables. During a stretch of the season, one team’s ace maybe ran into a spate of #4 starters, or caught the Roylz in the middle of their losing slump.
I think there are some umpires whose strike zones favor a certain kind of pitcher or a certain batch of hitters. How ya gonna figure that in?
Some ball parks have artificial turf; others have infield grass so long it’s going to seed.
Even with all the metrics, there’s still a lot of stuff about baseball that wrinkles the numbers.
Coors Field’s altitude favors hitters not only because you can hit the ball a mile, but the low atmospheric pressure affects curve balls and fastball movement.
Philly has a 21st Century bandbox and even with the air conditioners on, Houston is humid and the air is sticky.
Babe Ruth hit a bunch of his New York home runs at the Polo Grounds which had a right field porch like 260 feet from home plate?
I think Cleveland’s ball park before the Mistake by the Lake had a left field so deep it extended to the Muncie city limits.
There was the dead ball, the live ball, the horsehide ball, the cowhide ball. Bats made of ash, bats made of maple. There’ve been team accused of keeping game balls in a freezer; I don’t recall what that was supposed to achieve.
I’m pretty right-brained when it comes to baseball. Yeah, the stats are interesting insights but it’s nothing like two teams lining up against each other on any given day.
I went for Lincecum, Pujols, Lee, Pedroia. It was a tough call between Lee and Halladay. As for AL MVP there isn’t really an outstnading candidate so it came down to either Youkilis or Pedroia and I slight prefer Pedroia overall, although either is good. If he hadn’t got injured, Carols Quentin would have been a dead cert for me as MVP though.
Santana, Pujols, Halladay, Youkilis.
Other than Pujols, these are really tough.
I see Sanatan saving a couple runs more than Lincecum. The latter’s Ks could give him the lead, but Santana pitched ina number of hugely meaningful games down the stretch. Of course Santana had better D behind him, but Shea may not be quite in AT&T territory as a pitchers park. Who knows, either is a good choice. So would Cole Hamels. Just not Sabathia, Lidge, or Webb.
Halladay over Lee based on the additional innings. I see him saving a couple extra runs. Plus he had a few more Ks. I’m cool with Lee winning though. Just not K-Rod.
Youkilis has the best numbers among the guys who (i) played enough games to matter and (ii) didn’t play in the Texas Bandbox.
Fine giving it to Mauer though.
Anyone but Pujols would be a disgrace.
Lincecum, Pujols, Lee, Mauer.
For whatever it’s worth, Mauer led the AL in WPA as a hitter this year. As a catcher. Which is… unusual.
Joe – no Hanley in the NL poll? Not that I’d have picked him, but he had a better year than several of the guys in the poll.
Eh, not sold on the relevance/difficulty of the stat. Sure, only 4 guys have done it, but there are a lot of guys in the game right now with this skill set. Hell, you could have had a 3rd Coors Fielder in there if Holliday hadn’t been hampered by injuries.
Sorry Joe, but this is a variation on the rather lame “we can make a group” argument for putting someone in the Hall of Fame. Using that argument, I can filter just the three Triple Crown stats and end with a list that includes only Jim Rice and a small group of top-tier Hall of Famers. Big deal. It won’t tell you anything about Rice that you don’t already know, and somehow I doubt it would make you vote for him this year.
In the end, it’s interesting obscure stat that doesn’t tell me much about Beltran or any of the other players on the list.
Joe, speaking of books, I finished reading yours yesterday.
LOVED IT!
Joe:
Hey, this is a few posts late, but I justed wanted to weigh in on the DeJesus-Beltran thing. Of course, Beltran is a better player in all phases of the game. Always has been. That’s too bad, since it seems that a lot of KC fans hold this against DDJ — who’s probably the best position player on the team — certainly as a hitter, given Aviles luck with BABIP (I think Gordon will outhit them both next year, given his progress this year).
But, on defense. Again, Beltran is better, and defensive stats have a long way to go. And DDJ’s Dewan’s is way down this year (although it’s a relatively small sample size, given how much he’s played LF). Having said that, last year Beltran’s UZR was +8. DDJ’s was +13 (tied with Coco Crisp for 3rd in the AL. The only people ahead were Sizemore at +26 and Granderson at +18.
That’s right — Torriii “Mr. Self-Promoting Overrated Guy” Hunter was not better than the 4th best defensive outfielder in the AL Central last year.
D’oh. Please mentally edit that last post so it makes sense. That last sentence was meant to make the point that there were at least three CFs in Torii Hunter’s own division last year with better UZR ratings than his.
I think the assist was taken from him in exchange for the lost “H” at the front of his name.
The top choice in each poll was pretty much a no brainer for me, and it seems the rest of the voters. I really wanted to click “other” for NL Cy Young and write in Edinson “Voltron” Volquez, but he faded just enough in August to take him out of the discussion.
But he certainly looks like he’ll be in it next year, and for the forseeable future. Add in Cueto, Harang, and a resurgent Arroyo and this looks like the best Reds rotation in decades. Now if we could only move the fences back….
If Pujols couldn’t beat Howard in 2006, I somehow doubt sportswriters will be smart enough to reward him this year.
Pujols may end up being the record holder for most 2nd place finishes in MVP voting.
If you like strange combo stats like you mentioned with Beltran, you should really look into Jose Reyes. He’s always put together strange numbers, such that he gets lumped in strange categories with HOFers for being the last player with X Triples, Y Doubles, Z HR, and a ______ Batting Average.
Beltran: .284 40 doubles, 27 homers, 112 RBIs, 116 runs scored and 25 stolen bases 131 OPS+
best comp this season
Player 1: .276 46 doubles, 26 homers, 94 RBIs, 113 runs scored and 23 stolen bases 124 OPS+
I’ve been following this comparison for awhile and its pretty cool. Same position, worse team, breakout season. Couple of other notes- he mostly batted in the leadoff spot, sometimes, second or third- this and his crappy team accounts for the difference in RBI total between to two players. I did not include VORP or other metrics- check them out.
The player is- Nate McLouth.
Down-ballot MVP finishers…
Ted Williams and Stan Musial both came in second 4 times, Mantle and DiMaggio 3. Albert also has three, so he’s well on his way to taking over the career lead (assuming it’s not held by anyone outside the top 30 in MVP voting shares, which is as far as I looked).
Hank Aaron never came in second, but came in third 6 times. Which is both insane, and exactly the kind of player Aaron was – incredibly consistent at a very high level.
A couple of other differences betweeen Beltran and McLouth is
1) Beltran is a gold glover. McLouth is a iron glover. His stats are horrible.
2) Beltran plays in a much worse hitters park.
So i commented in obscure stats two where no one is talking about the MVP races so here goes again here.
So everyone’s clear cut MVP favourite in the NL is obviously Albert Pujols, but since voters perfer play off teams how come Sabathia is not getting more support from MVP voters. Now i know no one likes to give a pitcher an MVP vote but who has been more valuable down the stretch run? Pitching 3 games in 9 days takes serious balls, especially considering he is only viewed as a rental player for the Brewers. Not only has he taken the mound on three days rest he has thrown gems the entire time, well to be fair he would have a historically great season had he been with the Brew Crew all year long. Anyways i am actually writing something about this right now so i dont want to give it all away but i am reaching out to the voters. If you are not going to vote for Pujols who deserves to win please done vote for Manny or Howard, Sabathia has been far more valuable to his team.
Just wanted to say that quadruple-doubles can’t be a real stat, because if they were, Larry Bird would have had 14 of them.
Jeremy has a point – it’s not likely that the Brewers would have outlasted the Mets without CC Rider. It’s not often a guy leads BOTH leagues in shutouts, too. That’s sort of the trouble, though. He really did only pitch half the year in the NL. I wouldn’t feel right giving him an award for being important to a team for a half-season, that was already good without him, when Alberto Pujoles has been mashing for a terrible Cards team since the get-go, and kept them afloat into September. (It’s kind of why I wouldn’t have voted for Delgado if I had a vote – even supposing he’d gotten a little more of that fly ball in the eighth and the Mets had won.)
Pujols is clearly the class of the entire National League.
OK, folks – votes for Webb should result in revocation of future voting privileges.
Pretty damn close between Santana, Lincecum and Sabathia.
Santana: 234 IP, 206 SO, 23 HR, 163 ERA+, 1.148 WHIP
Lincecum: 227 IP, 265 SO, 11 HR, 164 ERA+, 1.172 WHIP
Sabathia: 253 IP, 251 SO, 19 HR, 162 ERA+, 1.115 WHIP
If Sabathia only gets credit for his NL stint:
130 IP, 128 SO, 6 HR, 262 ERA+ (!!), 1.003 WHIP (!!), not to mention 7 complete games in 17 starts.
I think Lincecum has to rank ahead of Santana because his significantly higher K rate and much lower HR against rate means that although they were practically dead even in giving up runs, Lincecum contributed more to that relative to his defence than Santana.
Also, I think A-Rod and Quentin have to be choices.
I don’t think Joe was trying to cherry-pick stats here just for the sake of showing the stats. I think it was another case of him pointing out how underrated Beltran is and what a diverse skill set he consistently brings to the table. The guy’s never mentioned alongside the game’s best, but there isn’t an element of the game in which he isn’t in the good-to-very-good range.
The mainstream media and casual fans tend to get blown away by guys who have eye-popping totals in one stat column – think Ryan Howard – and ignore the guys who put up great numbers (not to mention great defense in Beltran’s case) across the board. It’s like lauding a student for managing to pull in a 100% in trigonometry while landing Ds in all other subjects while ignoring a student who manages a cool 85% in every class.
Having said that, Pujols got my MVP vote without a moment’s hesitation. I flipped a coin to pick Lincecum over Santana for NL Cy and reluctantly went with Lee for AL Cy (but I’m happy to see that Doc’s putting in a strong second-place showing). I went with Sizemore for AL MVP.
Justin:
Why wouldn’t Halladay be in a strong 2nd? Only idiots would vote for K-Rod over Halladay, and not many of them populate this blog.
Also, food for thought about Sizemore. I’m not saying that he isn’t the AL MVP, but do you know that he only has the 5th best Post-ASB OPS on the Indians? He barely edges out Peralta and Gutierrez, but finishes behind Choo, Shoppach, Garko and Cabrera.
And seriously, Shin-Soo Choo. 1.038 Post-ASB OPS. Where did THAT come from?
NL MVP is clearly Pujols. My list goes Pujols, Berkman, Wright, Aramis Ramirez, Beltran, Delgado…(as impressive as MBM was, I just don’t know what to make of 1/3 of a season).
AL Cy Young goes, in my book, to Lee, with Halladay a respectable 2nd. K-Rod? Ugh. No. Just…no.
With regards to the obscure stats rather than the awards voting:
Coors Field was SO VERY hitter-friendly in 1996 (the one-year park factor is an absurd 129) that Dante Bichette was one double shy of joining this club, with 31 HR, 31 SB, 39 2B, 114 R and 141 RBI. The steals really stick out to me – Bichette had this one season with 31 SB, but never more than 21 in any other season; his 162-game average was only 14.
Why so little love for Youkilis? Just based on the numbers, he appears to be a better candidate than either Twin or Pedroia. He is the only one of the 4 who appears in the top 10 in BA, OBP, SLG and OPS (Mauer is top 10 in BA and OBP, Pedroia in BA and Morneau is not T10 in any of the 4 categories) He is 4th in OPS+ (behind two guys who missed time with injuries and ARod).
I would think he is the best candidate. What am I missing?
Brent, I waffled between Mauer and Youkilis, so obviously I can’t criticize a vote for the Greek God of Walks (see Moneyball). Although Youkilis has more offensive production to his credit, he plays the least valuable position on the field, whereas Mauer plays one of the most difficult, and where his kind of offense is unheard of.
I voted for Mauer, mainly because he leads the league in sac flies. Definitely not because he’s bringing top 10 type offense from the catcher position. Sac flies are really underrated.
Lincecum, Pujols, Lee, Mauer:
Lincecum’s strikeouts and IP give him the edge over Santana, considering they were roughly even in ERA (although Lincecum does pitch in a better pitcher’s park).
Pujols is a beast. He’s better than everyone else and shows it on a consistent basis. If this isn’t a slam dunk, voters aren’t paying attention.
Lee over Halladay in the AL Cy. This was close, but Lee’s flat out dominance wins the day.
There wasn’t a standout guy for AL MVP, but Mauer with a 135 OPS+ as a catcher? While playing good defense? And on a contending team? Yes please. Pedroia’s the only one who was close for me, but the anti-Red Sox sentiment pushes Mauer over the top.
Pujols is a no brainer for me and Lincecum also pretty obvious. I love Halladay but just couldn’t justify voting when Lee has outpitched him by a small but still significant amount.
AL MVP was by far the toughest decision . No one really jumps out as an obvious choice.
I wanted to vote for Youklis because he is one of my favorite players and has had a great year, I thought seriously of Pedroia because his defensive position probably makes up for Youk’s edge in raw offensive output. But then I took that argument further and know that catcher is by far the hardest position to get good production from and so a great hitting catcher is significantly more valuable than a great hitting first or even second baseman. So in the end I went with Joe Mauer although I would not be mad if any of those three (or Sizemore for that matter) ends up winning.
You know, I voted for Doc because, damn it, he’s such a horse and he’s my guy. I still firmly believe that he’s the best pitcher in baseball.
BUT… I just went and looked at some numbers, trying to find something, ANYTHING to justify giving him the Cy over Cliff Lee and I just can’t see it. Sure, he pitched more innings, got more K’s, and faced tougher opponents, but Cliff Lee had an absolutely amazing year and, frankly, he deserves to win.
That said, I’d still take Doc to start Game 7 of the World Series over Cliff Lee, any day of the week and twice on Sundays.
Not that the Jays are ever getting back to the WS in my lifetime, but still…
Congrats, Cliff. you earned it.
I don’t think Cleveland’s Municipal Stadium was called “the mistake by the lake”. The way I heard it, it was the mistake ON the lake. It supposedly was built on a landfill where Cleveland used to dump their garbage in Lake Erie. It was a mistake because people thought it would sink. I don’t actually know that of course. I was told that by a native Clevelander when I was passing through Cleveland at the age of 13 and I believe everything I was told in Cleveland when I was 13.
By the way, if you haven’t adopted your EPL team yet, you may want to consider Manchester United. Dimitar Berbatov is the Carlos Beltran of the soccer world. And since you are forced to cover the Chiefs and Royals for your day job, you deserve a team with a chance to win championships.
Larry Walker pretty tainted? In 1997 he hit .346 with 29 bombs and 62 RBI, 61 runs and 16 SB’s away from Coors. Even with those numbers he could have played home games in Washington and still reached this list
I agree with Pujols being the clear cut favourite for MVP, sadly since he is not in the play offs and he does not lead the NL in any categories except SLG and OBP i am sure they will look to vote another way. Ryan Howard is most likely the person who will be chosen, chicks dig the long ball, yet he does not much deserve it in my opinion.
Joe, I’m glad that you mentioned Curtis Granderson again. Even as a Cubs fan, I will say that I love this 5-tool player who can make runners fear–you can tell right away when runners stay back instead of challenging him–who can make a catch of deep flyballs look so easy–who can now walk (see his walk rate on the rise this season?).
The best thing I love about this guy–he’s always playing it full. Whoever his opponent called a LOOGY to face him, he’ll walk to the dugout, get a good discussion of his scouting report, and come back to the plate looking ready. That’s what players need to do. Be prepared. Think.
I like him. I hope there’s more outfielders like him.
Steve from Cleve,
I didn’t say I was surprised that Doc was a strong second. Readers of this blog are typically more insightful than the BBWAA voters. I suppose I’m just already anticipating the BBWAA being blinded by the gaudy saves stat and valuing 68 innings by the fifth- or sixth-best AL closer over almost 250 top-notch innings by a starter who’s been underappreciated by the mainstream media all year, as far as I’ve seen.
Regarding Sizemore, I admittedly didn’t know those second-half numbers – his September tank job completely flew under my radar. A .250/.320/.375 line? Wow. I did know that Choo’s been ridiculously good, particularly in September.
And I think Youkilis will be hurt in the BBWAA voting by the Pedroia-love going on all over. Both have been vital cogs in Boston making the playoffs, putting up huge numbers to make up for Manny leaving, Ortiz, Drew and Lowell being injured, Varitek and Lugo being terrible, but Pedroia’s gotten the ink, at least in part because of the fact that he’s short (virtually every article I’ve come across touting his candidacy makes mention of his height or calls him a mighty mite or some other such nonsense).
With no ridiculously overwhelming candidate, I could this being a year where the votes could be split, with the voters unwilling to pick two Red Sox, opting to drop a Twin in between the two. Oddly, four of the most likely candidates to get much support – Mauer, Morneau, Youkilis and Pedroia – come from two teams, so it’ll be interesting to see how the vote-splitting goes when the voters are faced with that conundrum. Likely, it’ll come down to the little guy versus the RBI guy. I’m actually starting to believe that some old-school BBWAA voters vote the way they do just to annoy the enlightened crowd.
Pedroia is kind of like a rick mans David Eckstein, wish my Jays would have got him instead of Eskstein
I second Lukeheart, a GREAT NL Cy Young race this year, if only because three candidates appeal to their base in a way that can only be described as Palinesque.
Lincecum: A candidate for the new age sabretron voter. Was great from start to finish and had the most impressive combo of counting and quality stats. Could suffer from Santana pulling some of the sabretron vote after a really awesome August/September.
Webb: Appeals for obvious reasons to the deadbeat vote.
CC Sabathia: For anyone who treats the Cy like a MVP, BFP (but for pitchers). He had the greatest impact on the playoff race of any pitcher. And the three-day rest start (does this have it’s own name yet?) is the kind of mythic September moment voters could rally around.
Awesome race, and I can’t wait to read the blog post after they hand out the hardware!
I’m sorry, did someone say they voted for Mauer because he hits a lot of sac flies?
The AL MVP was tough because noone really jumps out. I voted for Yook, with Sizemore a close second (33 taters ain’t bad). Mauer to me is the weakest of the choices; all that love because he’s a catcher? What about Sizemore? He’s got much more power and production than anyone else up the center of the field.
True, Youk plays a rather easy defensive position, but he plays it extremely well, and he wasn’t too shabby with the bat (highest OPS+ of all the above candidates), even when presented with the the tough task of replacing a certain long-haired, space cadet left fielder.
Interesting article but the stats are incomplete and therefore inaccurate. What about
Stats are Runs-2B-HR-RBI-SB
2001 – Bobby Abreu – 118-48-31-110-36
1999 – Chipper Jones – 116-41-45-110-25
Editor’s note: The stat requires they drive in MORE than than 110 runs. Yes, that’s a stupid stipulation. But the whole essence is ridiculous — thus, the “Obscure stats” headline. It’s dumb but accurate.