Really though, Lester Freamon did the yeoman’s work on the wires.

I think it’s pretty much true for every somewhat decent hitter than if they could take their slumps and make them “passable”, that they would be very, very good. That’s like saying “all Alex Gordon has to do is hit lefties as well as he hits righties, and he’d be almost as good as Longoria!”

Well, sure… is that _all_?

Less situations for Guillen? That’s just flat out not true.

He’s had 214 runners in scoring position this year. Of those 214 he has knocked in 65 (65 does not include himself on HRs or other runners not in scoring position during homers). That is 30.4% of RISP that he knocks in. He’s had 188 plate appearances with RISP, and has .279/.324/.413 in those situations. So he is better, but only marginally as he has his BA at .265/.299/.445. He hit 12 homers with bases empty and 4 with a runner on first. Only 4 of his 20 came with people on base.

With Seattle last year he drove in 69 of 231 for 29.9%, so he really hasn’t changed much. He had 187 PAs with RISP, so he had 17 more runners last year, in 1 less appearance. That’s not much of a change, it’s 1 more runner for every 11 PA’s with RISP. He batted .283/.364/.384 with RISP last year.

He has done for us pretty much what he did last year. Now if he could take those slow streaks and make them into something passable around a .250 BA w/ some power, he would have himself his best season ever or come close to it (2003-142 OPS+).

Then lets talk about what Guillen is doing well. You think he isn’t doing something well? Last year, he played in a pretty good offense with a superb leadoff hitter and some good run protection for him. Ibanez, Sexson, and Beltre all had 20+ homers in addition to Ichiro doing great as a leadoff hitter (.351 BA, .396 OBP, 37/8 SB/CS). This year the Royals have nobody (aside from Guillen) with more than 14 homers, and with ten games left of so, that’s relevant. And the team as a whole is 18 points worse in OBP, 31 worse in SP, doesn’t even steal as often or as efficiently. So for Guillen to have as many RBI as he does means that he’s either really really lucky or he’s actually performing better in those fewer clutch situations he’s had.

Now until recently I was mostly not a fan of context sensitive offensive numbers. I mean, a good hitter’s a good hitter. And then the Dodgers traded for Manny, who is a great hitter, not a good one. And they put Jeff Kent third, who only batted something like .355 with Manny behind him. Then Kent got hurt and they put Ethier in front of Manny, and Ethier’s batting average went through the roof (IIRC, over .400 batting in front of Manny). Not that Kent and Ethier are that similar, but both hitters are (for the Dodgers) fairly patient, not first ball swingers like Nomar and Kemp and Loney. And Torre, smart man that he is, decided to go to a topheavy OBP lineup with Martin, who doesn’t steal nearly as well as Kemp or Pierre (or Furcal) leading off, because Martin has a .380 OBP, best on the team aside from Furcal (hurt) and Manny. Ethier’s .364 is second best. So those guys get more fastballs, and give Manny more opportunities to hit with men on base when he’s harder to pitch around, and that’s why one player (plus good managing) improves the whole team more than just that one player’s improvement should show.

Why this is relevant to Guillen should be clear. He has never had much plate discipline. When pitchers had to throw him more strikes because he was hitting with men on base and because he also had good hitters behind him, then he swung at more strikes and hit better. In KC’s lineup, where only three players have an OPS+ of 100 (average) and one of those has fewer than 400 at bats at that, there’s no reason to throw the one legitimate power hitter on the team anything too good. In Seattle 2007, with 6 guys above average, Guillen saw better pitches. Same as Kent and now Ethier in front of Manny.

Yes, Guillen is overpaid. But his last four healthy years (skipping 2006) his OPS+ was 116, 116, 121, and 142, with 23-31 homers each year. He was going to get $10M+ from somebody with those numbers. You want to see overpaid? Look at Andruw Jones, who gave significant signs of being in a diminishment phase of his career, is getting $36M in two years instead of three, and looks like a retired linebacker instead of a gold glover in center field. Jones has an OPS+ of 32, following an OPS+ year of 88 with a pretty good hitting Braves team last year. So I’d say the Royals didn’t do so badly with getting Guillen. They could have done worse. I hope that Jones truly was just an artifact of the sore knee getting him out of shape and affecting his hitting, and now that it’s fixed, he can return to form next year. But I don’t know that he cares enough to work back into shape. Once you’re set for life, you need to really love what you’re doing to put in that hard work.