Don’t have time for a full post … I’m in Beijing writing about the silk market (phenomenal), sprinter Usain Bolt (phenomenal) and then trying to get some actual sleep for the first time in weeks (on my bed of stone).
But, I did see this, and I have to post it before the morning (these totals do not include last night’s games or, for me, this morning’s games):
Emil Brown: .251/.296/.394, 355 at-bats, 11 homers, 54 RBIs, 45 runs, OPS+ 88.
Jose Guillen: .253/.288/.435, 451 at-bats, 16 homers, 75 RBIs, 51 runs, OPS+ 87.
People … there are barely five weeks left in the season. If my two big preseason predictions come true — that the Tampa Bay Devil Rays* would contend for a playoff spot AND that Emil Brown, given the at-bats, would post more or less the same numbers as Jose Guillen — well, I think all you should buy me something really nice or at least, when you see me, drop grapes in my mouth.
*it is Rays, of course, not Devil Rays, but I want to leave that up as a testament to my extreme exhaustion. I suspect that there are at least 32 other errors in here.
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46 Comments, Comment or Ping
BobDD
Maybe the grapeshot should be flung elsewhere.
Aug 20th, 2008
Michael
It’s Rays. You’ve been fined $1.
Aug 20th, 2008
Geoffrey
Hey Joe football season kicked off here over the weekend and Fulham did…well disappointing, they lost 2-1 away to Premier League newcomers Hull City. Heres a link for the match report
http://www.premierleague.com/page/MatchReports/0,,12306~43694,00.html
To summarise Fulham started brightly going aheod when new siging Ki-Hyeon scored after 8 minutes. Hull levelled when Geovanni scoreda screamer from 25 yards out before late on Fulham Left Back Paul Konchesky got caught dwelling on the ball INSIDE HIS OWN AREA (thats a terrible mistake for those of you who don’t follow the game closely) by Craig Fagan who promptly squared the ball for Caleb Folan to poke into the net from close range.
Although this was a disappointing result Fulham did play some good Football and were without new signing Andy Johnson who was sorely missed up-front.
Fulham are at home to Arsenal next in the evening kick-off on Saturday. A very tough fixture, especially after an international week. A draw is probably the best Fulham could hope for.
Aug 20th, 2008
Oddibe Kerfeld
Joe,
Do you get to actually see any of NBC’s coverage while you are in China covering the games?
Perhaps its just my tv, but Costas and the people in his studio look orange. The rest of NBC’s shots are fine when they are showing athletic events and the picture from the other channels is good. NBC’s studio set-up in China for some reason makes everyone look orange on my tv. It’s like Costas is an Ompah-Loompa or something. Has anyone else had this happen?
Aug 20th, 2008
ClevelandMo
Yes, Costas looks orange and his big padded jackets make his head look too small.
Aug 20th, 2008
adam
How does Guillen have a higher OPS with those stats (.723 vs. .690), but a lower OPS+?
Aug 20th, 2008
Dan V.
Park factors would be the answer to that, Adam. OPS+ takes those into account.
Aug 20th, 2008
Oddibe Kerfeld
Joe made Deadspin today. Hopefully the riff-raff from that comment board won’t over run this site now. Here’s the link.
http://deadspin.com/5039037/#viewcomments
Aug 20th, 2008
Bellweather Johnson
Agreed, Oddibe…aggeed. We don’t want no stinkin’ riff-raff over here…with their shiny shoes and their Zoot Suits and swing dancing…Phooey!!
I guess I just haven’t looked in a while, but Guillen’s OBP is .288 (!!) JAY-sus…that is PUTRID!! This team is cracking at the seams. I thought that if we could just make it to the Cleveland series, we would be alright (you know, in our quest to be ‘Not The Worst’), but when you resort to siging KIP WELLS to stop the bleeding?? Good LUCK…
SOXX Rool!!!
-out-
Aug 20th, 2008
Otheradam
Adam, it divides OBP/lbOBP and SLG/lgSLG rather than OPS/lgOPS, which has the affect of weighting OBP more (as it should).
Aug 20th, 2008
Otheradam
*effect.
There are also park factors, but that shouldn’t matter much (at all?) when the players in question are teammates.
Aug 20th, 2008
Aaron M.
Yeah, it’s getting ugly for the Royals. It’s probably a result of tolerating Bannister’s poor pitching. They are falling back into the trap of “Here we go again” with bad pitching that has plagued them forever now. Meche has really been the only one immune lately. Even Greinke gave up some awful starts in Chicago, although I think they were stealing signs in that game. Their home record is 44-19, but they are 6 games under .500 on the road. That and I just hate the White Sox and I need some irrational thoughts to justify my liking the Royals. It used to be that Royals didn’t do steroids and the rest did, that’s why we couldn’t compete.
Aug 20th, 2008
Joe M.
Brown and Guillen aren’t teammates.
Aug 20th, 2008
Daniel
I have to admit, Geoffrey, I understood approximately 9 words of your post. Soccer baffles me. On the other hand, with a 2-1 score that game must have been like that 19-17 Sox-Rangers game a week ago. 3 goals in soccer? Crazy.
Aug 20th, 2008
mk
@ Aaron M re White Sox home/road split
The only way the Sox win games is by hitting home runs. Sox park is extremely HR-friendly; they’ve hit 111 HRs at home vs. 73 on the road. Idk how many wins 38 HRs are worth, but it’s probably a lot, huh.
Aug 20th, 2008
Jon
3 goals in soccer is actually pretty regular.
7 goals is getting crazy but not quite there. (Though I’d say that’s about 8-7 game in baseball, not regular but not unheard of)
To get to the 19-17 levels you would need approximately 12 or 13 goals. Maybe 10 or 11. (This of course assumes the goals are split both ways)
And Fulham is not looking good. Hull had the better of the play that game. They were unlucky to not have the lead after 6 minutes and certainly looked the more likely to score after they leveled the game at 1. A well deserved win for them.
Aug 20th, 2008
David in NYC
@MK:
Just from the HRs alone (i.e., ignoring any baserunners at the time of the HR), that’s 38 additional runs. If we use 10R/G as an average, that’s an additional 4 wins (roughly) over hitting 73 HRs at home (same as on the road). Obviously, if R/G is less than 10, that would result in more than 4 wins.
It’s not Coors Field, but it is a rather significant home-field differential.
@Daniel:
Not sure what the average is in the Premier League, but based on recent UEFA Champions League and Euro 2008 play, 3 goals is actually just a tad above average.
Aug 20th, 2008
Blackadder
While it is true that the White Sox are very home run heavy, there is some evidence that that is actually a BETTER kind of offense for the post-season. The reason is that good pitchers have proportionally greater ability to set down patient, OBP-heavy offenses, since they require a “chain” of positive events to result in a run. By contrast, a heavy power team, relying more on single mistakes rather than prolonged problems, do proportionally better against good pitchers (while also, by necessity, proportionally worse against bad pitchers.) Even arguably the best pitched game ever, Pedro Martinez’s 17 K’s against the 1999 Yankees, featured a home run.
I should reiterate that, as far as I know, there is some evidence for this idea, but it is far from conclusive.
Aug 20th, 2008
denopac
Since this is such a non-US sports savvy audience, perhaps someone can answer a question I’ve been wondering about for some time: do bowlers in cricket suffer elbow and shoulder injuries at a rate anything at all like what baseball pitchers do?
Aug 20th, 2008
Marco
Joe-
Did you see/do you have thoughts on the China/USA beanball game?
Aug 20th, 2008
Bostimd
Denopac
Cricket bowlers aren’t supposed to bend their elbows, so there should be less stress on the elbow joint. But, a tendon is a tendon, and they do apply torque (probably no less than a pitcher) so …
I would guess that for fast bowlers, at least, shoulder problems are similar in occurrence.
I may have to do some “Will Carroll” type research on this, unless some more informed reader tells us first.
Aug 20th, 2008
Bellweather Johnson
BOSTIMD: you are correct. Cricket bowlers do not bend their elbows when they throw, though bowling in cricket is different from pitching in baseball because the bowler derives most of their momentum from the running start they get, as opposed to leg drive and shoulder/elbow torque a pitcher relies on.
It should be said that their are breaking-ball equivilent bowlers in cricket, however they usually don’t pitch until later in the match, and then they don’t rely on the ball moving in the air, but rather when it strikes the ground before it reaches the batsman.
I know very little, if anything, about the kinds of arm injuries suffered by bowlers because of this, but I would think that they are more common in variety amongst the shoulder than the elbow. I too will have to do a little research. I have a buddy who’se a BIG Tendulkar fan who should be able to shed some light…
…or maybe we can just ask Mike Marshall…
Aug 20th, 2008
Justyo
For a while this season, as you yourself pointed out, Guillen was as hot as anyone could be at the plate. Absolutely killing it. It’s just baffling to me how you could run so hot for such a considerable period of time and then not just cool down but basically freeze. His injury must be more serious than he’s letting on. I’ll say one thing when comparing these two almost equally lousy years. Brown has been more consistent.
I’ll state the obvious when I say Guillen’s production does not warrant his contract. I wonder how many additional tickets the Royals have sold with Guillen over Brown.
Aug 20th, 2008
Creston
@ Oddibe
“It’s like Costas is an Ompah-Loompa or something.”
It all looks fine on my TV. Must be your cable/sattelite provider over-saturating stuff.
Aug 20th, 2008
Bellweather Johnson
UPDATING:
(In my research…) Cricket Bowlers generally suffer from shoulder injuries more than elbow injuries, though they are simply not comparable with pitcher injuries, not just because of the difference in mechanics, but because Cricket bowlers simply do not have the same workload as baseball pitchers. A Cricket Bowler on, say, the Indian One Day International Team will only bowl a MAX (and this is in rare occasions) of 5 Overs per match(equal to about 100 throws), but generally much less, and also play in only about 20-25 matches a year. Also, spin-ballers will generally throw less, but me more apt to wrist and forearm injuries than ones of the shoulder variety that their fast-balling counterparts are more liable to fall victim to because they must spin the ball effectively, again, without bending their elbows.
Still, though, I’ve been told, the most common cricket injury is — due to stance, torque, and the necessity for immediate reaction in any-and-all directions — are back injuries to Cricket Batsmen. Like many a good catcher’s knees, the best batsmen will have shredded back ligaments by the time they end their career.
…and yes, I understand and realize this has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with this blog…
Aug 20th, 2008
KCVEINS
Just a few corrections to the last post by Bellweather Johnson…An over in Cricket is 6 balls, the max number of overs allowed by any one bowler in an ODI (one day international) is 10 (these are usually 50 over matches and there are usually only 5 or 6 bowlers per team), but they can bowl upwards of 40 overs in a test match inning (and there are 2 innings in each test). On average, there are 2 tours with between 3 and 5 test series, 3-5 ODIs and several other matches against some of the local cricket XI. So I wouldn’t minimize the amount they bowl, but I agree, the test and torque by ML pitchers is much greater.
Aug 20th, 2008
Steve M
To summarise Fulham started brightly going aheod when new siging Ki-Hyeon scored after 8 minutes. Hull levelled when Geovanni scoreda screamer from 25 yards out before late on Fulham Left Back Paul Konchesky got caught dwelling on the ball INSIDE HIS OWN AREA (thats a terrible mistake for those of you who don’t follow the game closely) by Craig Fagan who promptly squared the ball for Caleb Folan to poke into the net from close range.
I have to admit, Geoffrey, I understood approximately 9 words of your post. Soccer baffles me. On the other hand, with a 2-1 score that game must have been like that 19-17 Sox-Rangers game a week ago. 3 goals in soccer? Crazy.
Think of dwelling on the ball as like a defenseman in hockey stick-handling too much in his own zone, then getting knocked off the puck and leaving his goalie one on one with the shooter. That’s what Konchesky did, made worse by the fact that he is a pretty competent defender and knows better.
Aug 20th, 2008
Steve M
A truly scary thing about this blog is that it has me gaining sympathies for the Royals (shudder). Like Joe used to, I live in Cleveland; unlike Joe, I am not a native and consider myself a free agent baseball fan.
Aug 20th, 2008
Nate
As an Angel fan, I have made the sad realization that we spent so much time and effort on playing well against the Red Sox this season that we overlooked the Rays and will be soundly defeated by them in the playoffs.
LAA vs. BOS (8-1)
LAA vs. TB (1-8)
PS: I don’t mean to rain on your parade, but I believe you also predicted that Johann Santana would win the N.L. Cy Young this year.
Still, hitting .667 is pretty good.
Aug 20th, 2008
GRAPHITE
Bellweather, fire your research team. Everyone else, ignore everything he’s posted on cricket.
This message comes from New Zealand, a cricket nation.
There are four forms of cricket at the upper levels. Test matches (played between countries) are scheduled for five days’ play with each team having two innings, part(s) of which may be forfeited in order to expedite a result. Most teams carry three or four fast bowlers and one slow bowler, with other players who are primarily batsmen chipping in from time to time if needed.
Fast bowler, think Josh Beckett; slow bowler Tim Wakefield.
The next level down is First-Class — generally, each country’s domestic top tier (in England between counties [Lancashire v Yorkshire is Red Sox v Yankees], in Australia between states). These matches are played over four days.
Then there are One-Day matches, delineated by the number of overs each team is permitted to bowl (50) rather than having a time limit. These are played country v country and by the First-Class teams. These games usually last eight hours.
Then there’s the latest version: Twenty/20, each side limited to 20 overs each. About three hours of hit and giggle.
An over consists of six balls. When Bowler A has completed his over, the ball is given to Bowler B, who delivers his over from the opposite end of the pitch (the close-cut and rolled portion of ground on which the main action takes place — think mini-infield).
(Geez, this is getting complicated; why did I start?)
Now, injuries. Most injuries to batsmen result from being hit by the ball, which is diamond hard. They’re well protected but the ball still sometimes gets through and broken bones may result. The act of striking the ball is not physically taxing, depending far more on hand-eye coordination than strength.
Injuries to slow bowlers are rare; they share the Methuselah-like qualities of knuckleballers.
Fast bowlers are an entirely different matter. There are those who’ve been blessed by nature with bodies able to operate year-in year-out. And then there are the legion who’ve been forced out of the game by trying to get their bodies to perform an unnatural act.
To propel the ball at speeds of above 90mph, the bowler reaches the delivery point running at the pace of a Olympic 1500-metre man, plants his leading foot on a patch of scuffed-up ground, leans back and then rotates his body over the pivot of that planted foot while whipping the delivery arm through an arc and releasing the ball just past the arc’s apex. He then must come to a halt in as quick a time as possible in order to be ready to catch a misplayed shot by the batsman.
In a day’s play in a test match (three two-hour sessions), a fast bowler may be called on to bowl 25 overs, possibly 30 if he’s a real workhorse.
That leading leg, when it plants, is taking an enormous load while the back is having tremendous strain placed on it as the bowler leans back then pivots forward at high speed.
All this leads, time and time again, to stress fractures of the back, which are virtually untreatable.
Aug 20th, 2008
Jay
BOLT!!! That man is AMAZING! I’m glad you’re on the job Joe, now he’ll actually get some decent coverage out here.
Oh, and let me be the 18 billionth person to congratulate you on SI!! Your story is truly inspiring and personally motivating. Mad props, for real. I’m so happy for you.
Get back safe (and healthy)!
Aug 20th, 2008
michael
Nate; not to be offensive in any way…but let’s be honest; the Angels could be undefeated against the Red Sox in the regular season, and in the postseason the ghosts of Angels past will remind them they can’t win.
That being said, I’ve picked the Angels to win the whole F’n thing. One way or another, it won’t be by going through Boston. I’m a Sox fan, I realize I just said my team isn’t winning the whole F’n thing. the Angels are the real deal…just not via Boston.
Aug 20th, 2008
Geoffrey
Konchesky giving the ball away inside his own area like that might be similar to a pitcher throwing a wild pitch with the bases loaded. Thats teh best baseball comparison I can think of.
As far as Fulhams prospects for the season I am cautiously optimistic. I think Stoke are dead certs to get relegated and hull are also very likely to go down (I know they beat Fulham but they just don’t have good enough players in their squad). That leaves Fulham, West Brom, Bolton, West Ham, Wigan and maybe a couple of others scrapping to avoid the last relegation place, so they have a good chance.
If Fulham sell Jimmy Bullard then their chances of survival drop dramatically. His return from injury last season was a major factor in them staying up.
Its nice that you guys are making some effort to appreciate football (soccer). Its a great game with many little nuances and quirks to be appreciated (a little like baseball).
Aug 21st, 2008
denopac
Bostimd, Bellweather J, KCVeins, Graphite: thanks, great info (I would expect no less from the brilliant readers of this brilliant blog).
Aug 21st, 2008
Jackie Ballgame
Joe, not to nitpick…okay, well, to nitpick: I’m on board with you both that Guillen was a bad signing AND that by replacing Emil with Jose we were getting pretty much the same player for about 9 million dollars more, but, I seem to remember you retracting your prediction. Before the season started you noted that Guillen had a pretty quick bat and you were probably wrong, you saw that Guillen was the superior player. And then called Guillen the vastly superior player during his hot streak?
Still on board with your point though…I’m just sayin. If you had said all along, “Just wait, Emil is a comparable player, I stand by it, you’ll see, the Guillen signing was a fiasco, Emil is wildly underrated, he’ll end up with the same numbers as Guillen, just wait…” I’d now be saying to myself, “Dang, that Joe was right all along. The Guillen signing WAS a fiasco.” But I think it was more, “Just wait, Emil will be a comparable player…no wait, Guillen is definitely the better player…no, wait a minute, see I was right, Emil is a comparable player.”
That’s okay, we all got suckered by Guillen for a minute there.
Aug 21st, 2008
Bellweather Johnson
This comment comes from Iowa, NOT a cricket nation.
Obviously the logistics of an Over, and the differences between ODI and Test Cricket are a little out of my grasp, as pointed out by my gracious fellow commentors (and also my Indian roomate, whom has chastized me already for my idiocy on the subject). Thanks for picking me up, fellas.
I think the original question regarded the comparison of injuries between baseball pitchers and cricket bowlers — ie: type and frequency — and I think the consensus is that despite a difference in work load and mechanics, a cricket bowler is just as susceptable to injury.
Cricket is really a fascinating game, and I encourage all to watch a match when you get a chance. I also hope my sub-novice level knowledge didn’t discourage anybody from doing that.
If the subject of All Blacks Rugby ever comes up, GRAPHITE, you’re my man.
-Is this a great blog, or what??-
Aug 21st, 2008
Tony B
I’ve seen cricket, I’ve read all of what was written here about cricket, and I still don’t get it. I don’t dislike it, I just don’t get it.
(Seriously. I think my brain is just too tied to 60′6″, 4 bases, and 9 innings of 3 outs a piece.)
Aug 21st, 2008
Josh
Re. Geoffrey’s summary of the Fulham @ Hull match:
Seol Ki-Hyeon isn’t actually a new signing; he’s been with the club since last summer, though given his general ineffectiveness last season it’s understandable that you might think he’s just arrived.
I’m not going to make too much of the loss. A boost in performance for a newly-promoted team is fairly commonplace (especially given it was Hull’s first-EVER game at the top level), and Fulham were integrating a number of new players into the squad (goalkeeper Mark Schwarzer, right back John Paintsil, midfielder Zoltan Gera, forward Bobby Zamora, plus Seol at a new position) so some growing pains are to be expected.
If I’m not mistaken, Arsenal have a number of players injured or recovering from injury, so this is probably as good a time as any to be catching them. I’m very much looking forward to seeing what giant defender Brede Hangeland makes of giant forward Emmanuel Adebayor; the absence of a defender with the size to match up with him was a glaring inadequacy the last time Fulham played the Arse.
Aug 21st, 2008
Mikey
“I don’t mean to rain on your parade, but I believe you also predicted that Johann Santana would win the N.L. Cy Young this year.”
Don’t look now but Santana is now second in the NL in VORP and third in ERA.
His win-loss record will probably keep him from getting many Cy votes, but there’s still a chance that at year’s end you will be able to make a case for Santana as the best pitcher in the NL. He should get seven more starts and he’s now pitching his best ball of the season. Let’s see…..
Aug 21st, 2008
G Young
What’s really great is that with Guillen you get a player who thinks he should only play hard everyday if his team doesn’t suck.
With Emil Brown, you get a player who thinks his team wouldn’t suck if only he were given the opportunity to play everyday.
Aug 21st, 2008
Bob Tholkes
Graphite,
I’d swear that overs were 8 pitches when I was following cricket in Australia in the 1970s. Know when they were reduced to 6, and why?
Aug 21st, 2008
Geoffrey
Josh you may be right, this could be as good a time as any for Fulham to play Arsenal, I just don’t want anybody to get their hopes up too much considering how good a team Arsenal are regardless of injuries.
Adebayor can be quite a hit and miss player (mostly hit last season although I’m still not convinced by him. I’d have sold him for £35m if Arsenal really were offered that much) so lets hope he is having an off day. Fulham will need to pack the midfield and apply constant pressure to stop Arsenal playing their slick passing game.
Bob Tholkes cricket was 8 pitches an over in Australia in 78/79 (for that season only). The following year test cricket was switched to 6 pitches an over all over the world.
Most countries have used 6 pitches for an over for a ver long time although there are variations towards the early part of the 20th century ranging from 4 to 8 pitches an over.
Aug 21st, 2008
GRAPHITE
Bellweather, no cricket in Iowa — I won’t emigrate there then!
It’s been said that the British Empire was won on the playing fields of Eton. It’s an apposite metaphor. You discover plenty about yourself standing at the crease watching a fast bowler running in to deliver God knows what. It may be a short-pitched ball that rears up and whistles past your ear, it may be a “yorker” at your toes, it may be a full toss heading straight for your ribs. The body, unfortunately for the batsman, is a legitimate target — at least until the “softening up” process reaches what the umpire regards as “intimidatory” and warns the bowler to tone it down.
I wouldn’t encourage anyone not familiar with the game to watch Test cricket (maybe the last couple of hours of the last day excepted) but a One-Day International can be exciting (and a great excuse for day-long beer drinking) and most baseball followers would appreciate the big hitting in Twenty/20.
I count baseball as the superior game, though. Given the choice between watching Aust v Eng at cricket or Sox v Yanks I’ll take the baseball, thanks. (Given New Zealand v Aust, jingoism would kick in, of course.)
If rugby ever does pop up here, I’ll have to declare that I’m not particularly fussed whether the All Blacks win or lose. My football code of preference is rugby union’s bad brother, rugby league — the most brutal form of football on the planet. It’s the dominant code in New South Wales and Queensland but is pretty much ignored in the rest of Australia, is well established in the north of England and has a good following in New Zealand.
You may have heard that rugby union is a game for gentlemen played by thugs. Well, rugby league is a game for thugs played by thugs. It’s blue collar working-class and proud of it. Imagine a football code designed to be played by the young men of Pittsburgh in Billy Conn’s youth. Blood flows, concussions abound, bones break . . . it’s a great spectacle.
The semi-finals start in a couple of weeks (I’d say a fortnight, but apparently no one in America knows what that is) — if you get a chance to catch a match don’t pass it up.
On that eight-ball over thing. I’ve done some Googling and discovered It was used in Australia from 1936/37 until 1978/79 inclusive. I lived in Australia from 1969 to ‘76 and watched a fair bit of cricket. I have to say I can’t recall noticing how many balls per over there were — but, in my defence, it was the seventies . . .
Aug 21st, 2008
Kevin Cremin
I like the prediction but I heard from an A’s announcer tonight that Brown has a plate appearance clause in his contract that doubles his contract if he reaches it. Apparently his agent has offered to waive it because Emil just wants to play. He is in the line up tonight and has homered. We’ll see.
Aug 21st, 2008
Bob Tholkes
Graphite,
Thanks for confirming the 8-ball overs. I was in Australia 1971-75, in New South Wales, watched some cricket, and played exactly two matches– a 2 not out and a superduck. For a baseball player, the damn ball just disappears. No strike zone… I played winter baseball there with cricketers, and don’t know how they adjusted.
Aug 22nd, 2008
Bob Tholkes
Graphite,
From watching both the rugby Union and League codes, it seemed easier to get away with thuggery in Union. League’s rules seem designed to make the game more spectator-friendly. Play stops far more often, there are downs, and far fewer scrums. Union seemed like a brawl with a ball. My baseball team was sponsored by the Penrith Leagues Club and its pokies, so the Panthers are still my club.
Aug 22nd, 2008
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