News from America comes in slowly and hazily, in part because of the time difference, but also because of the irritable and ever-changing nature of the Chinese Internet. It’s funny now, you will click on a Web site. Say Fire Joe Morgan. Well, at first, when we first arrived, the Fire Joe Morgan Internet page would immediately crash because, of course, the Chinese government famously loves Joe Morgan. Big Red Machine indeed.
Well, now it’s different. Now, you will type in the Web address, and the browser will indicate that it is “Loading.” And it will be loading for about 90 seconds. If I was the paranoid type, I would say that all Internet requests immediately transmit to the Chinese Office To Clear Internet Requests, where a bureaucrat of some kind types in the requested Web site on his browser to check whether or not it’s OK for viewing. I base this theory on the fact that SOMETIMES if you click on Fire Joe Morgan, you will get the page. And sometimes, you won’t. I suspect this is based on the particular bureaucrat who is on duty back at headquarters and whether or not he is a Bill Plaschke fan, whether or not he likes the sacrifice bunt.
These bizarre Internet quirks emerge in the craziest ways. For instance, there’s no problem going on SI.com. But the Internet people sometimes will not let you go on the baseball scores page. At first I found all of this kind of annoying, but now I see my Internet surfing in China sort of the way I saw opening birthday presents when I was nine. Hey, you never know what’s in the box. Might be a Gnip Gnop. Might be legos. Might be clothes (ugh). Might be another game of Yahtzee since I probably got Yahtzee 23 different times when I was a boy.*
*More hints about the bloggy big news in this paragraph! Something’s coming … I don’t know … what it is … but it is … gonna be great!
Anyway sometimes, the portal opens to this Web site. Sometimes it does not. I’m guessing this posting will not be easily accessible. Anyway, to get to the point, this page opened up for a brief time over the weekend, which allowed me to view a few of your comments. This included the comments from someone — I wish I could name the brilliant reader but I can’t get on the site now — who was saying basically that Pujols’ numbers don’t look all that special this year.
I had to read that comment a couple of times to make sure that I wasn’t just reading something that had been planted there by the Chinese government. Pujols’ numbers aren’t special? What? Unless my Baseball Reference page is not loading properly, the guy is hitting .350/.462/.617 this year. His slugging percentage is the HIGHEST IN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE. His OPS+ is a ridiculous 183. He’s walking twice as often as he is striking out. The guy is a beast — better than ever.
But the thing that really stuck out about the comment is the suggestion the Pujols, in fact, padded his statistics by driving in runs when the game was out of hand. This is something I would like to explore — the concept of “Pribbies.” A pribbie is a fun word I just made up based on the three hours and 42 minutes of sleep I have gotten the last two nights. It stands for “Padded RBIs.” Or “Pointless RBIs,” if you prefer. And it’s one of the concepts that drive me absolutely nuts as a baseball fan.
It seems like every time a fan doesn’t like a player, they will say, “Yeah, he only drives in runs when it doesn’t count.” The charge is that certain players pad their statistics with an overwhelming number of cheap hits and homers and RBIs, doing it when games are out of reach and lousy pitchers are on the mound and so on. I believe the first player to be smacked around for being a pribbie hound was Ted Williams — many members of the Boston media seemed to think that the Kid’s sick statistics were, in fact, mirages, and that you could always count on him to choke when nothing mattered but to hit a three-run homer when the Sox were up five or crack a two-out double into the gap in the late innings of an 8-3 loss.
I thought John Updike, in his seminal “Hub Fans Bid Kid Adieu,” slammed this concept pretty well and with a lot of fancy words when he wrote: “ The correspondence columns of the Boston papers now and then suffer a sharp flurry of arithmetic on this score; indeed, for Williams to have distributed all his hits so they did nobody else any good would constitute a feat of placement unparalleled in the annals of selfishness.”
But the slamming did not end with Williams, not hardly. Countless players through the years have had their eye-popping statistics marginalized by haters who said they only cared about numbers and only came through when it did not help the team. I remember hearing this a lot about Wade Boggs when he was getting busy hitting .365 every year with 45 doubles and 100 walks. How can you knock those numbers? Well, people did — he was not driving in enough runs, he was too selective, he was the master of the meaningless, average-cushioning, base hit. Not too much later, it was Danny Tartabull padding his stats. Then it was Albert Belle padding his stats. And of course, king of them all, y’all, nobody has taken more abuse for supposedly padding stats than A-Rod. You can retire the trophy.
And those are just the big guys. I think, on a local level, every team has at least one player the fans are convinced drive in only meaningless runs. In Kansas City, for instance, people would say that CONSTANTLY about Mike Sweeney. They would say, “Oh, he only comes through when it doesn’t matter.” And I used to think, “They’re the freaking Kansas City Royals. When DOES it matter?”
There are two reasons this whole thing bugs the heck out of me. First, the big one: To me, there are no meaningless moments for a hitter in a baseball game. This is at the very core of my baseball love. I have read many wonderful essays about how soccer is like life because it is about disappointment more than triumph, because it is about the vagaries of luck and bad bounces, because, like life, there are many rainy nil-nil draws. I love reading that stuff. And I think that’s true.
But I tend to think baseball is more like the American life I grew up with. I’m not talking about the money the players make or the smell of the freshly cut grass poetry or any of that. I’m talking about the game. Baseball to me is about the daily grind, about getting up every morning and slogging to work in a rusted car and knowing that, yes, you went 0-for-4 yesterday but today you’re going to crack three hits, work a walk, maybe drive in a couple of runs. Baseball is understanding that sometimes you will smack the seams off the baseball and the third baseman will drive and steal your double, but it’s also appreciating that sometimes you will check swing and the ball will dribble down the first base line and it will somehow die in fair territory, a cheap single. Baseball to me is about never giving up an at-bat, never passing on your moment, because even Babe Ruth made outs most of the time, and the next time you come up the pitcher might throw you three unhittable sliders or the umpire might ring you up on a fastball at the ankles.
For me, baseball and life is about playing with joy on those days you can manage it, and giving a professional effort when your girlfriend dumped you or you walked out to a flat tire or you can’t get the song “Sussudio” out of your mind*.
*You’re welcome. Su-Su-Sudio!
Because that’s what I believe, I’m just not drawn to the player who comes through only when it matters. First of all, I don’t believe that person even exists. But, let’s say he does: What’s admirable about that? I admire the people who brings it every day, people who still answer their phone at 4:59, people who call you back two days after they finished the job to be sure, home builders who put in added touches because they’re proud of their work, waiters and waitresses who make heartfelt recommendations, doctors who really care about how you’re feeling, mechanics who work a little late so that it is fixed in the morning. I don’t have great admiration for a guy who, to stick with batting average for simplicity, hits .232 in non-pressure situations and .368 with runners in scoring position … I admire the guy who hits .300 in both.
And so, no, I don’t have much use for a guy who gives up at-bats when his team’s up or down eight runs. I appreciate that others disagree. I know that there are those in society who think those guys who give everything when it matters most but dial it down the rest of the time should be worshipped for their unselfishness or competitive spirit or something. But I look at it this way: Let’s say I walk into a Jaguar dealership. Now, I can’t afford a Jaguar. I would imagine that the salesman there — let’s say it’s a man — would realize this pretty quickly. So what will he do? Will he ignore me because the score is 11-1? Will he give me a cursory sales routine while looking at the door every two seconds to see if anyone else is walking in? Or will he give me some passion, will he express how much he loves Jaguars, will he try to SELL me that car because while he knows that I can’t buy it today and I can’t buy it tomorrow, I might someday make millions off this blog (not likely but … something’s coming), I might sell 10 million copies off this book (did I mention that I’m writing …), I might someday be viable, and anyway, you should play hard every moment and every day because, I think, that’s at the heart of what matters.
OK, that’s first — that’s my opinion. Here’s the second thing, and this is not just my opinion: Pretty much every time someone tells you, “Oh, all that guy does is rack up meaningless RBIs,” they are 100 percent wrong. Take Albert Pujols. Someone throws out there that he only gets hits and drives in runs when the score is out of hand, and in the old days when you got your box scores from the weekly Sporting News it would be hard to argue with that. But these days we have, you know, “facts,” and “statistics,” and those can paint a pretty clear picture.
Albert Pujols’ numbers in a tie game: .317/.418/.607.
Albert Pujols’ numbers within one run: .335/.430/.639
Albert Pujols’ numbers within two runs: .335/.432/.630
Albert Pujols’ numbers within three runs: .333/.427/.624
Albert Pujols’ numbers without four runs: .333/.426/.622
And finally …
Albert Pujols numbers when either team has a four run lead or more: .332/.408/.607.
OK, do you see that? The guy is precisely the same player in every single situation. Precisely. Frighteningly so. Of course, you can say the same thing about a lot of other guys, including this guy, the Godfather of Pribbies:
Alex Rodriguez
Score within 1 run: .304/.398/.584
Margin greater than 4: .310/.384/.573.
You see that? He’s not better in blowouts. He’s just not. It’s right there, plain to see, he’s NOT BETTER, so you can STOP saying it (though there is a little more to the story … I’ll get to that in a second). So here’s what I’m thinking here in China on no sleep: We need a statistic — I nominate my new word “pribbie” — that measures padded RBIs so that we can get people to stop indiscriminately and inappropriately ripping players for padding their statistics.
Now, to start with, I’m not suggesting anything too fancy. ;I think it’ easy enough to just count the RBIs players get when the margin is greater than four runs. Of course, it’s is true that a grand slam with when you’re trailing by five runs is hardly pointless, it’s hardly padding the numbers, but you know what? I’m in China. I don’t really have the access to more detailed statistics. If you would like to improve upon the Pribbie, go right ahead.
Here are a few interesting players’ pribbies from 2008. This is not a complete list, by any means. For instance, Tony Pena Jr.* is not on it.
Pribbies
Bobby Abreu, 23
Ryan Howard, 22
Josh Hamilton, 22
Matt Holliday, 18
Xavier Nady, 15
A-Rod, 15
Miggy Cabrera, 14
Raul Ibanez, 13
Ryan Ludwick, 12
Carlos Quentin, 12
Chase Utley, 12
Kevin Youkilis, 12
Ryan Braun, 11
Jermaine Dye, 9
Derek Jeter, 9
Milton Bradley, 9
David Wright, 9
Albert Pujos, 9
Oh-wee-oh Magglio, 8
Justin Morneau, 8
Troy Glaus, 7
Pat Burrell, 6
Chipper Jones, 6
Carlos Lee, 6
Jose Guillen, 5
Adrian Gonzalez, 5
Lance Berkman, 5
Ryan Theriot, 2
MannyBManny, 2
There are a couple of things worth noting on this list. One, this year, A-Rod is actually living up to his previously unfair reputation — he’s hitting .404/.466/.904 in pribbie situations. I don’t blame him one bit. All these years people are ripping him for turning into King Kong after the game is decided, he might as well go ahead and do it. At least that way he can post even better numbers.
Two, MannyBManny has been terrible in pribbie situations this year — that can’t surprise you.
Three, I know this is a promising statistic because if someone had said to me — “Who do you think has had the most pribbiies this year,” my absolute first guess would have been Bobby Abreu.
*OK, so obviously I did not see this because I’m in China with a stuttering Internet connection … but if I’m reading this right, it seems that Tony Pena — serving as the designated hitter, no less — got TWO hits in extra innings Sunday in a Royals victory over Minnesota. I’m really not sure what to say about that. I just watched synchronized diving, and I was under the assumption that would be the strangest thing I’d see today.
First: What are the odds that Pena would ever serve as a designated hitter? Ever. I realize it happened because he pinch-ran for Billy Butler, an odd thing in itself because Pena is slow — it reminds of the classic Harry Carey line when Manny Trillo was used as a pinch-runner once: “You know, for a lot of teams you would pinch run for Manny Trillo.” Then, because the game went into extra innings and Skipper Trey apparently had a hunch, he remained as a DH. Still, it’s very weird.
Here’s the weirder part: He got two hits which means he is now hitting 1.000 as a designated hitter in his career. So, I would suggest that Tony Pena is the worst designated hitter in baseball history and the best all at the same time.
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92 Comments, Comment or Ping
Diane Huntzicker
I absolutely agree with your notions about “coming thru when it does/doesn’t count” — a concept that irritates me. Particularly since baseball isn’t basketball or soccer, where a particular player might or might not keep trying to get the ball — you’ve only got the at-bats you have, and you can hit then or not at all.
However, apropos of Pujols, do you think the fact that he faces primarily NL pitching should be taken into consideration? I don’t have a strong opinion here (I love Pujols) but it seems generally agreed that it’s easier to pitch in the NL — so isn’t it also therefore easier to hit?
Cheers, Diane
Aug 11th, 2008
Minda's Mom
You say that something in your third paragraph hints at the something great that is coming to this blog. In that paragraph you mention Yahtzee. Does that mean that your blog will have an on-line version of Yahtzee, similar to the infamous Scrabulous?
Aug 11th, 2008
Callaway Kid
I think you can make a case that the current crop of NL pitchers is more dominant than the AL staffs. Having a DH makes the AL more of a hitters’ league, sure, but looking at the big dogs I think Albert is facing better pitching than any American League counterpart. He’s so good, and so consistent, I think his consistency hurts his reputation. If that makes sense. Guy should have four or five MVPs already, and he has one.
Aug 11th, 2008
Paul White
I agree that far too many players are unfairly bashed as stat-padders, but it seems odd to me, Joe, that you seem to have fingered the fans as the primary guilty parties. Like this:
“…It seems like every time a fan doesn’t like a player, they will say, “Yeah, he only drives in runs when it doesn’t count.”
Well, hold it for a second. I don’t hear fans making this kind of ridiculous comment nearly as often as I read it from various baseball writers. Look at you own examples. Williams was slaughtered by the Boston press. Ditto Boggs. ARod is the king of all New York sportswriter whipping boys. Jeffrey Flanagan openly mocked Mike Sweeney here in KC. Bob Ryan wrote a vicious comment of that nature about Jim Rice, and when made a fool of him by hitting a walk-off extra-inning grand slam the same day it appeared in the newspaper (July 4, 1984), Ryan couldn’t even admit he was wrong. Instead, he petulantly called the homer “a wind blown fly ball”.
Fans are certainly guilty of this kind of silly argument, but they’re fans. They’re emotionally invested, and therefore their judgment is clouded. They don’t study this stuff, for the most part, and they’re certainly not paid to be accurate in their statements about individual players. But the writers are supposed to be impartial, and they ARE paid to be accurate, so if you’re going to point fingers at the primary culprits here, it seems to me that you should be pointing at your own colleagues.
Aug 11th, 2008
Oddibe Kerfeld
I’m excited about the big announcement for this site. Congrats.
Aug 11th, 2008
Elton
I was assuming the “Yahtzee” reference was to the guy who does the “Zero Punctuation” video game reviews. So in that vein we should expect to start getting videos of Joe P. talking extremely fast about the latest statistic he just made up.
(Not meant as a slam on either one — I love the hell out of both ZP and this blog.)
Aug 11th, 2008
Broocks
I just wanted to say: that is exactly how I believe internet censorship goes down.
Pujols with two outs and RISP, 2008
51 PA, .300/.588/.733
Pujols “Late & Close,” 2008
66 PA, .354/.500/.729
Pujols, career
.333/.424/.620
Pujols with two outs and RISP, career
562 PA, .327/.509/.659
Pujols “Late & Close,” career
710 PA, .319/.445/.627
Aug 11th, 2008
Jeff
Adam Dunn is CONSTANTLY ripped for this same phenomenon here in Cincinnati. Talk radio is probably 75% people calling in to say how un-clutch Dunn is. Then all he does is lead the league in HR and walks, and people complain that his HRs are meaningless. It’s been proven to be false time and time again, but the myth remains. We’ll miss his bat in the lineup next year.
Aug 11th, 2008
Tony B
Nice Joe. Until that post I’d never heard anyone rip Pujols like that. Most people pick on him for his (over)aggressive baserunning or his pudgyness.
Patiently awaiting post or column on the 4×100 Free Relay….please tell us you were there for it.
Aug 11th, 2008
Matt
Arguments like this upset me, and partly because they are so prevalent.
In any sport, the team that holds the ball has the upper hand. A batter cannot ever automatically be expected to succeed. He should be expected to maximize his chances for success–both physically and mentally.
The disparate results that occasionally appear in a batter’s performance (clutch v. non-clutch) can be attributed to some sort of disparity in his physical and mental abilities, such as the inability to control their nerves, know their limitations, or be prepared to maximize their opportunities. I know this exists, because it is apparent an palpable in little league, where kids just don’t have the mental discipline.
I think that by the time we are talking about the highest level of professional baseball, the mental disparity is widely overblown. Could it still be possible that Alex Rodriguez is not as gifted mentally as he should be? It’s certainly probable that major league players still have different mental levels, just like they have different physical levels. It probably does prevent him from maximizing his ability in a critical at bat here or there. Maybe not in May, but maybe in October.
But probably only a little bitty bit, and its probably something that he will eventually get a handle on.
The question that stymies me is, why would I disparage a guy for this reason? Even worse, how ignorant must I be to misconstrue this as selfish and purposeful?
Of course, Paul White is right. The herdless masses have been brainwashed into thinking all players have 2 levels of performance. In this silly debate, this is the largest given, and the greatest myth of all.
Aug 11th, 2008
Sam Mellinger
Two things:
1. I’d like to point out that it’s both absurd and another reason why Joe is a journalism hero of mine that he’s in China, wrote two columns for today’s paper, and then found the time for a 2,500-word blog post on baseball.
2. Chinese gov’t isn’t the only entity with a strange web filter. The press box in Omaha blocked royals.com for a bit when I was out there last week, leading to a disturbing thought about what kinds of pictures Dick Kaegel is posting of John Buck.
Aug 11th, 2008
Brent
Thank you Joe. Good article. I want to point out that not only fans and writers believe this b.s. about “clutch” and “non-clutch” players, but former players such as Joe Morgan and Reggie Jackson cultivate those beliefs when they talk about the subject.
OTOH, some athletic activities in other sports do lend one to believe in the concept of choking. For instance, putting, free throw shooting, and field goal kicking all do seem to be affected by nerves, at least at times with some players. (Scott Norwood, Nick Anderson and any golfer who has ever got the yips on short putts to name a few) Is there something special about those specific athletic skills that make them susceptible to nerves?
Aug 11th, 2008
Eric J
To be fair, Pujols’s OBP will be inflated with 2 outs and RISP because that’s when most intentional walks happen, and Pujols gets IBBed more than anyone in the league now that Bonds isn’t around any more.
But claiming that he only produces when it doesn’t matter is still ridiculous. Also, what Joe said about people who produce only when it’s important.
Aug 11th, 2008
Dan Murtaugh
You and John Updike are soulmates. Whenever someone talks about clutch hitters, I used to think about a different section of that same story he wrote about Williams:
“For me, Williams is the classic ballplayer of the game on a hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Baseball is a game of the long season, of relentless and gradual averaging-out. Irrelevance—since the reference point of most individual games is remote and statistical—always threatens its interest, which can be maintained not by the occasional heroics that sportswriters feed upon but by players who always care; who care, that is to say, about themselves and their art. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter’s myth, he is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.”
Now, I’m going to think about this blog post.
“For me, baseball and life is about playing with joy on those days you can manage it, and giving a professional effort when your girlfriend dumped you or you walked out to a flat tire or you can’t get the song “Sussudio” out of your mind*.”
Aug 11th, 2008
Kevin
One of the flaws with a 162 game schedule is that almost no one can watch all 162 games a team plays. Thus, you’re watching game 112 of the season and A-Rod hits a HR with a 5 run lead and all of a sudden this visual evidence becomes your basis for fact. “I told you so!” The beauty of 162 games is that stats don’t lie over the long haul very often, but within one game or situation who knows.
Aug 11th, 2008
Zach
Not to beat a dead horse, but
Matt Holliday 2007: .340 /.405 /.607, 36 HR, 137 RBI.
Every bit of that came when the Rockies were almost out of the race, because they were almost out of the race all year long.
To be fair, Holliday was ridiculously clutch down the stretch — the whole team was. But one fewer meaningless win in the dog days of August would have left that miraculous comeback one win short.
I think the “meaningless RBI” is a concept invented by fans who are mentally bypassing the pennant race and looking forward to the playoffs. But you can’t always count on making the playoffs.
Aug 11th, 2008
Geoffrey
Isn’t it even more annoying when you’re singing the wrong words to the song stuck in your head! It’s Sulio Joe, not Sudio. I’m not a fan of Phil Collins* but damn is that song catchy - you’ve got it in my head now!
*Look on You Tube for the Cadburys Dairy Milk add to the tune of In The Air Tonight, I don’t want to ruin it by telling you what happens but I can tell you its genius.
Aug 11th, 2008
Bellweather Johnson
I disagree with the take that performing in baseball is akin to performing with a bas song stuck in your head…really?
Just because you had a bad day, you’re taking one down, you sing a sad song just to turn it around? You say you don’t know, you tell me don’t lie, you work at a smile and you go for a ride. You had a bad day, the camera don’t lie, you’re coming back down and you really don’t mind…You had a bad day…
No Joe…YOU’RE Welcome
Aug 11th, 2008
Scott
Because their censors will want to protect Chinese citizens from getting Sussudio stuck in their heads, you have guaranteed that access to this blog in China will now be permanently denied.
Way to come through in the clutch, Joe!
Aug 11th, 2008
Brian
I’m just glad there aren’t any Angels players on that list of Pribbies. Talk about playing good team baseball.
Woohoo.
Aug 11th, 2008
Michael Atchison
In China, covering the Olympics, Joe drops 2,571 words on baseball. Now that’s showing up at the ballpark every day.
Aug 11th, 2008
Erik
Re; Mike Sweeney….. Twins fans refer to him as Babe Sweeney or Mike Ruth. He DESTROYS Twins pitching.
Aug 11th, 2008
Tony B
Padraig’s putt did fall, and yours wasn’t close at all…
Ss-ss-ssergio! Oh…oh!
Aug 11th, 2008
Patrick Bateman
“This is Sussudio, a great, great song; a personal favorite.”
Aug 11th, 2008
JW
I feel so good if I just say the worrrrd ….
Aug 11th, 2008
Aaron M.
It’s the same concept as a slot machine. It’s called operant conditioning. People know what they see. If they want to see greatness in a clutch situation, they see it roughly 35-40% of the time. They know it pays off, it just might not have this time. If they want to see failure, they still see that 60-65% of the time in a “clutch” situation, so they know that pays off as well and occasionally the slot machine, I mean player, will come through.
I have a feeling that the people that say ARod pads his stats are people who are happier when they see other people fail. Failure is their jackpot in the slot machine of baseball.
Aug 11th, 2008
Mike Bagnall
How about doing a similar column about the guys who “threw away” their last at bats when ahead or behind by 4+ on getaway days? I personally sat in Yankee Stadium and watched Charlie Maxwell camp under a deep fly ball with a man on third in the last of the ninth and the score tied, less than two outs. Instead of catching the ball, he batted it into the stands for a HR. If the pitcher cared (excessively, in my opinion) about his ERA, it may have caused a fight in the clubhouse, but most of the fans thought it it was kind of him to give a free HR to the Yankee batter. I’m not sure everybody has always taken EVERY PITCH of every game as seriously as they do now. I don’t think anybody “pads their stats”, but I do think some people don’t try as hard in non-pressure situations as other folks. Their paychecks are a good deal smaller than those who do. It’s kind of like posing for your statue after you hit a HR–those that do it make more money, but get unwarrented criticism from some quarters. The whole idea of caring overmuch about every single play in lost causes has really ruined basketball and football (at least for some of us). Playing overtime has done in hockey. Four hour baseball games will destroy baseball, if anything does.
Aug 11th, 2008
McKingford
Well, now it’s different. Now, you will type in the Web address, and the browser will indicate that it is “Loading.” And it will be loading for about 90 seconds. If I was the paranoid type, I would say that all Internet requests immediately transmit to the Chinese Office To Clear Internet Requests, where a bureaucrat of some kind types in the requested Web site on his browser to check whether or not it’s OK for viewing.
You aren’t paranoid. There really is such an office. And the perpetual “loading” is simply one tool in their censorship toolbox. James Fallows has a good article on this subject:
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/chinese-firewall
Aug 11th, 2008
David S
I haven’t done the work, but it would stand to reason that great hitters will have higher OBP and lower BA/SA in close situations, as pitchers are more careful in pitching to them. I would bet that Albert sees a lot better pitches when his team is up or down four runs.
Also, when your team is up four or more runs, it may be because the opposing pitching staff is not that great, so you might expect better numbers in that situation.
Aug 11th, 2008
gogiggs
“Phil Collins’ solo career seems to be more commercial and therefore more satisfying, in a narrower way. ”
I strongly disagree with first poster, Diane, on the strength of NL pitching relative to the AL. I think the AL is just a much stronger league all-around.
Aug 11th, 2008
gogiggs
Then again I may have completely misread what Diane posted and don’t disagree at all. I should be more careful.
Aug 11th, 2008
McKingford
What are the odds that Pena would ever serve as a designated hitter?
See, that’s just more thinking outside the box…
Aug 11th, 2008
pokerpeaker
Please don’t let it be that you’re moving to SI.com. Cause that might mean you’re leaving the STar, and that would be a very sad day for us (although a good opportunity for you).
Aug 11th, 2008
Oddibe Kerfeld
Is this Joe being like Plimpton in the famous Sport Illustrated story where the first letter of each word in the opening sentence spelled out “April Fools”? I think Joe is going to SI and he just told us with the first letters of the first words in this section. Good stuff and congrats Joe. Don’t forget us regular posters when your blog gets a million hits a minute.
“More hints about the bloggy big news in this paragraph! Something’s coming … I don’t know … what it is … but it is … gonna be great!”
Aug 11th, 2008
Dave S
Anybody that thinks that Pujols is padding stats when the game is out of hand hasn’t paid enough attention to the Cardinal bullpen this year. There is no such thing as a Pribbie in St. Louis right now. This is a team that has Jason Isringhausen (in likely the last weeks of his career) and Ryan Franklin trying, and failing, to close games with regularity. In the interest of brevity, it hasn’t been pretty at all.
Aug 11th, 2008
gogiggs
Ah, it wasn’t first poster Diane I disagreed with, it was third poster Callaway Kid. The point remains, I should be more careful.
Aug 11th, 2008
Pokey Joe
The AL is 4-3 vs. the NL in the past seven World Series. Being an avowed critic of interleague, I stand by my comment. I don’t think the AL is much stronger than the NL, and I certainly don’t believe that AL pitching is that much better. Look at the All Stars rosters; I’d take the NL staff.
Aug 11th, 2008
John R
Geoffrey, the song is Sussudio not -sulio unless there’s a different version in England.
Brent, I object to your classifying Scott Norwood as a player affected by nerves. His missed kick in XXV was a 47 yarder. Maybe he missed because of nerves, but isn’t it more likely to say that those kicks are missed a certain amount of time? Norwood had never hit from 47 yards on a grass field and in the 1990 season he had been 1-5 from 40+ yards on grass. It just seems unfair that he’s always stuck with the choker label.
Aug 11th, 2008
mike in omaha
Gnip gnop is ping pong backwards, so that could be our hint. If only I was smart enough to know what it meant…
Aug 11th, 2008
Jake
But the problem with Pribbies, as I see it, is that some players, based on their teams’ successes (or lack thereof) would have many more chances to accumulate said Pribbies.
I think the prevalent rate stats (In those situations), used in conjunction with Pribbies would provide more context.
Aug 11th, 2008
Brent
John R.:
I bow to your superior knowledge about FG kickers. I was trying to think of a good FG example and his name was all I came up with. Maybe the FSU kid of wide right fame? Or the POS that missed a bunch of FGs agains the Colts for the Chiefs in 1995.
Aug 11th, 2008
JW
“Look at the All Stars rosters; I’d take the NL staff.”
Even late in the game? Brad Lidge and Billy Wagner vs. Rivera/K-Rod/Papelbon/Nathan?
The AL played at about a 93-win pace in interleague this year. Hell even the Royals looked great.
Aug 11th, 2008
will betheboy
Thanks for keeping me interested from around the world Joe. Great post.
Aug 11th, 2008
Kyle K
Amen to the ridiculous “unclutch”/”stat padding” arguements.
Don’t forget the arguement that is always used when presented the facts that players like Pujols and ARod aren’t stat padders. “I’ve seen all the games, I know.”
Aug 11th, 2008
Mike S
You know, I seem to remember Pujols coming through with a titanic game-breaking home run off of Brad Lidge that sent the NLCS back to St. Louis. But I’m sure that’s my imagination. We all know how the Astros used Lidge in a mom-up role.
Aug 11th, 2008
Tony B
Anybody that thinks that Pujols is padding stats when the game is out of hand hasn’t paid enough attention to the Cardinal bullpen this year.
Said by my wife on Saturday when it was 9-3, “Hopefully that’s enough runs to keep the bullpen from blowing it.”
Said by me after 3 more in the 9th, “Probably not, that’s why they just tacked on a few more.”
Aug 11th, 2008
ajnrules
Oh wow. That West Side Story reference solidified this blog as the absolute best of all time, bar none. I just hope you keep the Kansas City connection alive whatever happens.
Aug 11th, 2008
Oddibe Kerfeld
“We all know how the Astros used Lidge in a mom-up role.”
Ha. I don’t want to know what a “mom-up role” would be, but it doesn’t sound good.
Aug 11th, 2008
JOSH
pribbies are the worst statistic ever. whether or not you get one depends almost entirely on other players’ performances (unless you’re the master of the solo hr.) you’d need a babip for pribbies or whatever for the stat to mean something, and even then, as you said earlier, hitting a GS down 5 is technically a pribbie but actually isnt, because all 4 of those RBIs are meaningful. ugh.
Aug 11th, 2008
Broocks
Pujols’ OBP will be higher in situations like 2 outs, RISP and “late & close” however one would also expect that he wouldn’t see “hittable pitches,” which makes his .300 BA and .700 SLG that much more amazing.
Aug 11th, 2008
gogiggs
“The AL is 4-3 vs. the NL in the past seven World Series. Being an avowed critic of interleague, I stand by my comment. I don’t think the AL is much stronger than the NL, and I certainly don’t believe that AL pitching is that much better. Look at the All Stars rosters; I’d take the NL staff.”
Why pick the last 7, I wonder? Is it because the AL won 3 in a row before that and 4-3 supports your case better than 7-3? (And I’d like to note that even though the series results are 4-3, the game record for those series is 22-15 in the AL’s favor)
I’m an avowed critic of interleague play, too. I think it’s wrong that a team might lose their division because they have to play a tougher interleague opponent than a divisional rival (for example the White Sox this year, possibly, or the Mets, pretty much every year). That said, being a critic of interleague play doesn’t mean you get to act like the games didn’t happen or the results don’t mean anything and the results are pretty conclusive. the NL hasn’t won the season interleague series since 2003 and the last 3 records were: 149-103, 137-115 and 154-98.
As far as looking at the all-star rosters, why not look at the all-star results? The NL hasn’t won an all-star game since 1996! That’s 0-11-1 in the last 12 all-star games.
You may not think that the AL is much stronger than the NL, but every available indicator says it is.
Aug 11th, 2008
Tyler
Of course the AL has been superior to the NL for some time. But this doesn’t mean that AL pitching is better than NL pitching just that overall the AL is better than the NL. I happen to think that the pitching in the NL is better overall as compared to the AL, but I’ve yet to see any statistic that would convince me either way, or that I would even see as relevant for use in such an argument.
Aug 11th, 2008
Fish
The site is going to SI.com, but I’d be very, very surprised if JoePo left the Star.
I hope the move doesn’t entail editing this down. The reason this works so well is because of its style–which would never fly in print.
Congrats, Joe, but get ready for a slew of folks who just don’t get it.
Aug 11th, 2008
Paul White
“Even late in the game? Brad Lidge and Billy Wagner vs. Rivera/K-Rod/Papelbon/Nathan?
The AL played at about a 93-win pace in interleague this year. Hell even the Royals looked great.”
And one reason the Royals looked great is a guy you neglected to mention, Joakim Soria, a closer who’s having just as good as year as pretty much everyone you DID mention:
Soria - 53.2 IP, 5.3 K/BB, 9.7 K/9IP, 293 ERA+, .475 Opp OPS
Nathan - 48.1 IP, 4.6 K/BB, 9.5 K/9IP, 365 ERA+, .543 Opp OPS
FRod - 49.2 IP, 1.9 K/BB, 9.8 K/9IP, 180 ERA+, .605 Opp OPS
Rivera - 50.1 IP, 12.2 K/BB, 10.9 K/9IP, 294 ERA+, .465 Opp OPS
Papelbon - 49.1 IP, 8.3 K/BB, 10.6 K/9IP, 222 ERA+, .530 Opp OPS
Please, a little love for The Mexecutioner.
(FYI - The guy having clearly the WORST season of the five cited is also the one who’s about to break the single-season saves record. I smell a meaningless statistic.)
Aug 11th, 2008
JW
“I’d be very, very surprised if JoePo left the Star.”
I wouldn’t be. The future of newspapers … well as Dusty Baker might say, “it is what it is.”
Aug 11th, 2008
gogiggs
“Of course the AL has been superior to the NL for some time. But this doesn’t mean that AL pitching is better than NL pitching just that overall the AL is better than the NL. I happen to think that the pitching in the NL is better overall as compared to the AL, but I’ve yet to see any statistic that would convince me either way, or that I would even see as relevant for use in such an argument.
Well, I suppose if it were true that NL pitching was better than AL pitching, then it would be likely that 1) AL teams would score less in interleague play, due to facing better pitching than usual and 2) NL teams would score more in interleague play, due to facing worse pitching than usual. (Of course this would be slightly complicated by the fact that the AL teams would be playing some games without a DH and the NL teams would be playing some games with the DH, but that doesn’t seem all that hard to compensate for.)
Aug 11th, 2008
james
The word that a lot of “stat padders” use that I hate most of all is “compiler”. Compiled stats don’t help the team win. He just gathered them up, They aren’t useful, just compiled.
Aug 11th, 2008
Shonepup
Joe - You’re the most clutch of them all!
Aug 12th, 2008
Shonepup
Take a look at Josh up there as one of the guys who just doesn’t get it.
Go read ESPN the Mag Josh….leave this website alone
Aug 12th, 2008
Anthony
This is why this is my favorite blog: “Three, I know this is a promising statistic because if someone had said to me — “Who do you think has had the most pribbiies this year,” my absolute first guess would have been Bobby Abreu.”
This recognition practically made my day. You know how most fans, talk radio show hosts, etc. are always wrong about these kinds of things like with Pujols and A-Rod? Well I can tell you that Philadelphia sports fans, me included, were 100% correct on Abreu. This guy was acknowledged (apparently correctly) as the king of the meaningless 3 run homer. Great fantasy player though, especially in a contract year.
Aug 12th, 2008
David
Joe, you have to be, without a doubt, the best sportswriter in America. KC is lucky to have you and I will continue to enjoy reading your musings and nursing my growing man-crush on you. Stay safe in China…
Aug 12th, 2008
Ricky
Right on the money, Joe. And I stand by my belief that Albert Pujols is the second-best living hitter.
Aug 12th, 2008
Richard Aronson
The beauty of baseball is that you cannot hide from statistics. You can perceive what you want to perceive, but in the long run the stats reveal a fairly good picture of the truth.
For example, Sarah Morris (who I don’t mean to pick on) wrote in her Dodgers blog about how she liked what Brian Falkenborg had done every game she saw him. Falkenborg had a 6.17 ERA before being sent down to bring Penny off the DL. In 11.2 IP he allowed 8 ER. And yet he had at least half a dozen appearances without allowing a run, so it’s quite possible that her perception is correct, as well as mine: Falkenborg was the worst active pitcher on the staff.
I remember when I was a kid, the Dodgers had a guy named Willie Crawford. He seemed to have the emptiest stats I ever saw. We didn’t have the internet then, but I listened to most every game. For his career, he had an OPS+ of 115, pretty good, and his two highest OPS+ years were also years with his most games (139 OPS+, 145 games; 130 OPS+, 139 games). For his career, he had 3435 at bats, almost 4,000 plate appearances, and only scored 507 runs. That’s not as good as Juan Pierre. Or, if you prefer, only 419 RBI. That isn’t good either for a guy with that many chances. But boy, do I remember a whole lot of two out bases empty doubles.
So I absolutely believe in Pribbies. I just don’t believe that anybody who hits like Pujols or ARod doesn’t also do a whole lot of good things in meaningful situations. ARod has short of 8,000 career plate appearances, 1574 runs scored, 1573 RBI, or roughly 1.5 the runs produced per PA of Crawford. Pujols has about 1,000 more PA than Crawford and almost twice as many runs and RBI. Yes, these are better times for hitters. But no way are they that much better.
Aug 12th, 2008
Tank Garbonzo
It goes beyond meaningless RBI. Pete Rose has been accused picking up meaningless base hits at the end of games that were already decided.
Aug 12th, 2008
Justin
Bill Simmons made a similar point about Kevin Garnett last season. People say Garnett isn’t clutch because he doesn’t have another “gear” to go to at the end of a game, but actually, he’s ALWAYS in top gear.
Aug 12th, 2008
DB
Any league that can have a team with a rotation consisting of Kyle Lohse, Braden Looper, Todd Wellemeyer, and Joel Pineiro and be one of the top 5* productive staffs can probably make a lot of pitchers look way better than they really are.
*Based by some rough estimating on starters ERA’s, not the end-all-be-all obviously. But still, how can the Cardinals still be good with that staff. Pujols really is amazing.
Aug 12th, 2008
Mike
How great is it that Maddux has finally overtaken Pedro in the Greatest Living Pitcher Poll?
Aug 12th, 2008
Damon Rutherford
I think JoePo needs to replace The Sports Guy on ESPN2.
Aug 12th, 2008
gogiggs
JoePo needs to stay far, far away from ESPN. First, because it’s become a ridiculous clownshow and second, because I enjoy his work and I’ve been boycotting ESPN ever since the Home Run derby.
Aug 12th, 2008
Creston
Your big news is that you’re the new intern for Fremulon Insurance?
Aug 12th, 2008
Creston
And they gave you a Yahtzee set as a welcome gift?
Aug 12th, 2008
Creston
I took the time to scold “Planet B” (your brilliant writer) two entries back over his New York Media like bleating of nonsensical untruths, and ofcourse I should have just read here first.
The one thing that’s sort of noticeable with A-Rod is that his numbers with 2 out and RISP are a bit worse than the other clutch numbers. .271 .401 .486 for an .887 OPS. Which is about 70-90 points lower than most other areas.
On the other hand, his OBP is a tad higher so it’s not hard to imagine that he just gets pitched around a lot.
And still, A-Rod is so unclutch that he OPS’es .887 with RISP and 2 outs. Man that sucks. How dare this guy play baseball?
Btw, Captain Clutch with 2 outs and RISP : .315/.416/.445
“Jeter ALWAYS comes through with 2 outs!”.
“A-Rod NEVER gets a clutch hit!”
New York Media and people who bleat like them : Waste of air.
Aug 12th, 2008
Creston
“However, apropos of Pujols, do you think the fact that he faces primarily NL pitching should be taken into consideration? I don’t have a strong opinion here (I love Pujols) but it seems generally agreed that it’s easier to pitch in the NL — so isn’t it also therefore easier to hit?”
I would actually argue that it’s the opposite. The pitchers have an easier time to pitch in the NL, so you as a batter have a harder time facing them, because they’re fresher and not as worn out as the AL pitchers are by facing the DL-Enhanced grinder lineup.
(no statistics were used in any way whatsoever in forming this theory.)
Aug 12th, 2008
Creston
“I’m just glad there aren’t any Angels players on that list of Pribbies.”
The Angels have RBIs?
Actually, the Angels win a lot of close games, so that’s going to hamper your ability to hit a lot of meaningless RBIs.
Oh, and Geoffrey, the song is Sudio, not Sulio. That’s how it’s named on the back of the CD that it’s on. (Which I have at home).
Aug 12th, 2008
Creston
“But boy, do I remember a whole lot of two out bases empty doubles.”
See, but if Derek Jeter hits a two out bases empty double, he’s “starting a rally!”
If A-Rod does it, it’s a “meaningless hit.”
This is why the BBWAA needs to be disbanded, and then have to undergo STRINGENT testing before being allowed to write about baseball ever again.
My guess is that apart from Tim Marchman, no NY writer would ever be let anywhere near a keyboard anymore.
Aug 12th, 2008
Creston
“Any league that can have a team with a rotation consisting of Kyle Lohse, Braden Looper, Todd Wellemeyer, and Joel Pineiro and be one of the top 5* productive staffs can probably make a lot of pitchers look way better than they really are.”
Hint : Busch Stadium is 22nd in Park Factor for the past 2 years, and is very heavily favored for pitchers. Check out Kyle Lohse home/road splits. This is why the Cardinals seem to have such great pitching.
Aug 12th, 2008
G Young
Another hint!
Let’s see - so we know it has to do with Joe becoming the GM of a baseball team, and we know it has to do with Yahtzee.
Only one more Blue’s Clues to go, and then we can head off to the thinking chair!!!!
Aug 12th, 2008
Alex
Pribbies doesn’t quite work. The point is now how many pribbies a guy has, but rather how many of his rbi are really prbi.
It should be a rate stat, not a counting stat. Though I DO like the sound of pribbies.
1) Easiest would be straight percent. PRBIR (”pribbir”) is prbi/rbi.
2) Better would be to conextualize to league average. PRBIR+ = PRIBIR/(LeaguePRIBR).
3) But then we have the question of distibution of opportunities. What if its the guy in front of him who only is good in blowouts, so he only get men on base in front of him in blowout. That’s not his fault, right? We’d need a rate stat for converting opportunities to rbi, and then plug that it PRBIR, and then plug the result into PRBIR+.
Can I make this more complicated? Hmmm….
What about basing this on a run expectency table? How many more runs than the run expectancy would predict is the guy generating, and what % of those come in prbi situations? Then plug that into PRBIR+. That would take care of opportunities.
4) Obviously we need park and league adjustments, right?
5) After Nate Silver is done with this election (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/), perhaps he could factor this into PECOTA. Maybe this is the developing ability of players to focus and control themselves, as baseball demands.
6) But what really matters is winning, right? So, that leads to win expecation tables? So, that’s leverage. But we’re talking about how to prove that ARod is a dog who doesn’t deserve to play with Jeter, so we need to do something there. What about total leverage (i.e. the sum of the win expectency table deltas before and after each at bat) divided by salary?
That’s all I got.
Aug 12th, 2008
JW
Yahtzee was also George Foster’s nickname. A subliminal book plug.
Just padding my post count ….
Aug 12th, 2008
Owen
WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF!
Sorry, I needed to get that out of me.
Aug 12th, 2008
Jeff E
Joe, what are the odds that one day after TPJr beat the Twins with his 12th inning heroics, the Twins would come back the next night and beat the Yankees with a 2-run homer from Adam Everett?
Hell, it might not even be a fluke, ’cause Everett’s already driven in two more runs so far tonight (6th inning).
Aug 12th, 2008
Black Francis
OK…let6 me get a tissue so I can be prepared to wipe my brown nose once I’m done.
Ok.
Ready now.
ANYWAY…I sure hope Joe isn’t leaving here to go to SI. Not only is this BAR NONE the best–and most thoughtful and best written, etc.– sports (and such) blog out here in the internets, but one of the other main reasons I enjoy this place so much is the quality of the comments, all thoughtful and on point, brining the stats bigtime…unlike say other, more trafficked blogs that featured clowns and buffoons fighting for the “FIRST!” prize and ensuring every discussion devolves into penis and homo jokes (*cough cough* *Deadspin* *cough cough*).
I’m all for change, but I don’t want those bozozs to find our little quantum of solace (oh yeah…looking forward to that flick)
Aug 12th, 2008
Black Francis
Oh, and Joe, three more things:
1) Can’t wait to hear your thoughts on The Boss agreeing to play 1/2-time of the Super Bowl. Would love to hear you thoughts on his expected set list (based on the time limitations of the Super Bowl, e.g., would he do a medley, cutting his songs shorts, or just opt for a high-energy 3-song set in their full form?) vs. your Joe P.-sanctioned Ultimate Super Bowl Set List
2) Went to see the Hold Steady in Athens, GA at the famed 40 Watt Club (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40_Watt_Club). Let’s just say that they are working hard to give an aging Boss a run for his money in the new Hardest Working Band in Showbiz title. Really terrific show.
3) Stay safe in China…
Aug 12th, 2008
Update
In case Joe reads this and can’t find out anywhere else … Banny gives up four hits (but three of them homers) and four runs in seven innings Tuesday night in a 9-0 loss at Chicago.
Aug 12th, 2008
Dusty
please don’t let them make you have a typical SI.com blog like all their other bloggers. those things are so ugly i don’t even read them anymore.
i hope they just sponsor this one.
Aug 12th, 2008
GRAPHITE
I’m hoping it’ll be like Oprah — we’ll look under our chairs and there’ll be a Mercedes there.
Aug 13th, 2008
Buchholz Surfer
Last night’s Texas-Boston game shows that even some “meaningless” at-bats in blowout games turn out to be not so meaningless after all. Lots of Pribbies put up in that game, all of which turned out to be important.
I think the WPA stat would probably shed a lot of light on whose hits actually “mean” a lot and whose are “empty,” if people are talking about that sort of thing.
Aug 13th, 2008
Geoffrey
Guess I got it wrong, I’m sure I’ve seen it on some music channel listed as Sulio, oh well. Anyway the more important thing is that you watch this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TApA1fyoSdk
I have no idea what that has to do with chocolate but it has to be one of the best adverts of the last 10 years, easy.
Aug 13th, 2008
Donut Police
Joe, so you like the predictable? That means you’re boring. BORING! Please head home via Bangkok to your wife.
Aug 13th, 2008
Donald Kaufman
There is a statistic that measures the value of plate appearances–Win Probability Added (WPA). It measures difference, positive or negative, in a team’s win expectancy before and after each at-bat, aggregated for all at-bats. Fangraphs compiles WPA. Pujols is 4th in MLB.
Aug 13th, 2008
Stevo
You could take into account the score AFTER the hit as well as before. Therefore, a grand slam during a 5-run game would be counted as “clutch” since the score after the hit was within 1 run.
Aug 15th, 2008
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