Joe Posnanski

You do realize that Hanley is at least four years younger than Albert and already has 25 homers and 26 stolen bases this season. While Albert is among the best hitters of our generation, Hanley could be the best player for years to come. Part of these questions have to do with potential, and nobody’s got more than Hanley.

I think the ultimate compliment about a teammate was Red Ruffing saying about Joe Dimaggio, You saw him standing out in center field and you knew you had a damn good chance of winning the baseball game.

He is the Tim Duncan of the NBA, which is a compliment to both players.

“…just like they do it for The AP college football poll.”

Interesting. So it’s Hanley Ramirez against Alex Rodriguez in the BCS title game, while Albert Pujols is in the Orange or Fiesta Bowl and Brandon Webb is playing against the equivalent of the Big 12’s sixth-best team.

I don’t know if I’d fire the GM if Pujols wasn’t in there, but I think if I were an MLB owner, I’d want to see my GM’s top 5 list, and if he didn’t have good reasons for picking his players where he did, I’d fire him. (Yeah, I’d probably fire him if he left Albert out.)

In between the blind promise of the “Albert Pujols post” (afternoon 5/06/08) and its submission (wee hours 5/07/08), here was Albert’s line against the Dodgers:

4-4, Grand Slam, 2 R, 4 RBI, BB, 2B….(Cards win)

i understand and agree with your argument for pujols vs. rodriguez. but no question about it, hanley is the guy to build a franchise around if you take them both at this stage in their careers.

also i have albert on my fantasy team this year, and i have to say i am loving him even more after tonight’s game

And Joba’s stock might have dropped a bit in the last couple days ….

I understand the choice of Beckett. He’s 28 and has two rings and has proven if given the ball when it counts he’ll deliver. And as we all know in the post season, you must have strong SP to advance.

To me track record trumps potential. Winning trumps potential. And any GM who kept Albert out of his top 5 is an ego-maniac.

Given that, I’m actually surprised not to see David Price on that list.

I think Cardinals fans even sometimes forget how great Albert truly is.

The other day I was talking to someone and they said, ‘I’m seriously disappointed in Albert this year.’ And when I asked why, they replied, ‘He’s just having a terrible year. He’s just not being Albert. Down year, I guess.’

I’ve always been amazed that a ‘down year’ for Pujols, looks a little something like this: .352 BA, 23 HR, 73 RBI, .461 OBP, .618 SLG.

Incredible. A career year for almost anyone else, is considered a down year for Albert Pujols.

One stat of Albert’s that I’ve always marveled at, among all his other stats that I marvel at:

Albert’s first 5 years, games and at bats.

161 590
157 590
157 591
154 592
161 591

I’m a Cardinals fan and I love Albert. If I were to have any more children, I would name them all Albert, regardless of gender.

You could already make the case that Pujols is the second-best first baseman of all time, behind just Gehrig. Though Pujols hasn’t played that many years at 1B, it’s fair to take into account the fact that he’ll be playing the position for the rest of his career and he’s already a great gloveman.

Another Cub fan here, and more than any player ever, I associate the sight of Pujols walking into the batter’s box with a feeling of abject terror. Sometimes I have to leave the room when he’s up to bat. Someone should chart the impact of a Pujols at-bat on the blood pressure of Cub fans, so that Cooperstown can record the results on his Hall of Fame plaque.

Also, for the record, I’d class Pujols with Jeter as a guy I root against because he’s on a team I don’t like, but if he were a Cub, he’d probably be my favorite player.

Mark P, you’re clearly forgetting about Mattingly, but I’ll let it slide.

Someday, someone* is going to invent a stat where they compare the number of MVP awards someone earned versus the number they won, and I think Pujols is on pace to shatter the current record in this category.

*I think we all know who “someone” is.

Well, I agree that Pujols is underappreciated - how could you not? - but I don’t see it as being all that obvious that he’s the clear top pick in this exercise.

A couple people have mentioned Hanley. How about David Wright? He was so good so young that I think people forget how young he still is.

What if you were offered a bet on who will amass the most win shares from 2009 through the end of their careers? Would you take Pujols over Wright without hesitation? I don’t think it’s clear cut at all. As great as Albert is I would take Wright.

As long as we’re wildly speculating, I think the big change to this blog will be some kind of ongoing AP-style panel that will vote on all of Joe’s goofy questions. That would be fun.

One relevant point in comparing Pujols to ARod is league quality: the AL, as we all know, is much better than the NL, and has been for the last few years now. Take that into account, and the hitting gap between then narrows to almost nothing. I would still take Pujols, because he is such an incredibly good defensive first baseman that it trumps ARod’s league-average fielding at third. However, I do think that ARod’s best years, when he hit like this while also being one of the best defensive SS in baseball, may be better than Pujols’.

I can tell you the reason Pujols isn’t higher… it’s steroids. The guy is a 13th round draft pick out of Kansas City, then plays 1 year backing up Mark McGwire, and suddenly he’s the greatest first baseman to ever live?

GM’s are tired of it, they know he’s the last big name that could be associated with it, and they’ll take the Hanley Ramirez’s and the Jose Reyes’ all day over it.

and yes, A-Rod is associated with it, but he didn’t play with an entire team of steroid users like Pujols did. Great player, yes, but GM’s and baseball in general want nothing to do with steroids. And even though it is completely unproven, would it really shock anyone to find out he has been taking them over the past 9 years? Maybe not anymore, but certainly 6 years ago. His numbers dropped from looking like he was going to hit 50 HR’s a year down to 30 a year pretty quickly…

The title of this entry, Albert the Underrated kind of annoyed me right off the bat. I mean Albert Pujols, underrated? Please! The man is the best player in the game, on a career path that projects as the greatest right handed hitter of all time, the greatest first baseman of all time, and now I’m supposed to think he’s underrated?

Then I read the article, and son of a gun Joe, you painted a pretty convincing picture that the man is in fact, at least underappreciated, and maybe even underrated.

When the Cardinals play the Royals, I’m constantly thinking of what the situation will be if Albert bats in this inning (2 on, 1 out, bases loaded, etc) and if we can somehow avoid facing him again. No other player causes me to think that way. I used to do it, in a good way, with Brett. You know, if Willie can get on here, and we can avoid a double play, George would bat as the tying run.

It was WAY more fun to do those mental gymnastics when I was hoping to get George up than when I’m trying to avoid Albert hitting. WAY more fun.

I’m curious if Dayton was one of the 20, and if so who did he choose. Probably not Pujols because he knows Hillman wouldn’t play him as long as Gload was on the roster.

The other thing about Albert Pujols (and I know this is one of those stupid intangibles, so I’m not really saying this should factor into a GM’s decision) is that he’s just got a scary presence in the batter’s box. The only two players I think I’ve witnessed who would’ve scared me a little as a pitcher are Pujols and Sheffield (before the Chef started falling apart). Both of those guys are complete menaces. With Sheffield you always knew that you could throw 95 and he’s swing as hard as he could and hit it a million miles an hour on a frozen rope into the stands.

With Pujols, it just seems that you can’t pitch him anywhere — the ESPN guys last night mentioned that he’s got the highest batting average in baseball on fastballs…but it’s not like he can’t crush your offspeed stuff, too, to all parts of the field, and with power. Busting him inside is nearly impossible…but he’s probably not going to swing and miss at a breaking ball and he certainly isn’t going to chase stuff out of the zone.

I’ll stop now. Bottom line, I think Pujols is the best player in baseball, bar none. Great writeup.

As someone who watches almost every Cardinals game, its frustrating when someone attributes his decline in HRs to past steroid use or fading dominance. Watch a Cardinals game sometime! He gets pictched around more than any other player in baseball, including A-Rod. It can even be depressing to be a Cardinals fan on nights–and there are many–when he barely sniffs a pitch in the strike zone. Even on those nights he is still a joy to watch. Another Cardinal will make a great play and the camera will inevitably cut to the dugout, where Albert is smiling, jumping up and down, and cheering like crazy.

Another Cubs fan here who marvels at/fears the mighty Pujols. I’m no fan of the Cardinals but I can’t help but admire and like Pujols as a player and (by all accounts) person and teammate.

What’s Pujols’ longest hitting streak because it seems like he gets a hit every day. In fact if opposing teams didn’t pitch around him I think he could put together a looooooong hitting streak.

I wouldn’t say this about many players, but Albert really not only does the big things, but he also does the little things. I guarantee every stolen base he has comes in a key situation. He is the best baserunner I have ever seen, a much better baserunner than guys who are much faster than him. I know those things are not as measurable as the big things he does, but if people want to give ARod and Hanley points for playing a more important defensive position, then they must give him points for being the smartest ballplayer in baseball. If you go to a Cardinals game, watch him. He is always in the right place. He is always making the right play on the bases.

Also, he is an incredibly smart hitter. A couple years ago, I was watching a Saturday afternoon game on TV between the Cards and the Cubs. The Cubs relief pitcher threw a particularly nasty slider to him and he took the worst swing I have ever seen him take at the pitch. I commented at the time that he seemed to be setting up the pitcher and sure enough the pitcher threw him another slider next pitch and he hit it out of the ball park. I really believe he set the pitcher up.

Anyway, for the KC readers out there who haven’t seen him, he is the reincarnation of George Brett or Hal McRae (who is the Cards hitting coach, I would love to hear his comments on what he thinks of how Albert plays) from the 1970s. That is how he plays ball. It is refreshing.

The flaw in the poll question is whether you are building a team to win just this year or are you building a team that will win for the near future? If it’s just for right now, I choose Pujols. If it’s for the next five years … I choose Pujols. Defensive positions are important, but the ability to stack your lineup around this guy (who makes everyone around him better) is infinitely more valuable than a few extra line drives stolen from the SS position.

Albert scored from 2nd base on a groundball in the 9th inning of a tied game this year. With plantar fascitis and a bad knee.

A Rod versus Jose Albert Pujols: Life Competition, Plus Slugging+

A Rod photographed in Toronto squiring an “exotic dancer” and on return to Stadium his wife wears a tee shirt with a vulgarity which is photographed and splayed on Daily News. Later said wife goes public with divorce statement. Chaos ensues.
LCPS+ 103

Though built like a Greek god and Croesus-rich, J-A Pujols meets woman older than he and no great looker, she. Also she has seriously disabled child. He marries her, takes on child, and now leads charity to address disorder affecting their child.
LCPS+ 209

Based off of the first paragraph, Joe is either joining S.I., becoming a General Manager, or moving to China. I’ll have to think about this one for a while… hmmm

And not only that, but Albert also has the favorite name of every 8-year-old boy in the country. (Say it out loud.)

His BB-Ref #1 comp for every year of his career (so far) is Joe D. Let’s hope his body and health maintain a little better than Joe D’s did.

Every one of his top-10 comps through last season is a Hall of Famer (DiMaggio, Foxx, F Robby, Aaron, Mantle, Gehrig, Cepeda), a damn-likely HoFer (Junior, Vlad), or Hal Trosky (who probably would have become an HoF member if not for WWII).

And, as has been pointed out by several, not only is he damn good, but he is also ridiculously consistent at being damn good.

From my standpoint, Pujols is grossly underappreciated. I’ve never bothered to take a comprehensive look at his career. As many others have said, its the consistency that seems to be devalued. If he’d ever had an average season, we might realize just how good he’s been. After reading all the commnets and Joe’s column, I will spend more time looking at the numbers, but for me the real measure is how the Cards seem to consistencly over perform their expectations. I do not attribute this to TLR or to anyone else but Albert. He puts the team on his back and carries them to success. That is my measure of true greatness. The numbers are just gravy.

Maybe some of the GMs thought it was a fantasy baseball question? Still it does raise the question: is terrible SS play better than brilliant 1B play? It is, of course, a lot more difficult to find even an average offensive player at short. I would imagine that a lot of GMs would consider trying out Ramirez in CF.

I’m surprised Wright isn’t up there. He’s still 25 and is a great hitter and 3B. He’s slightly younger than Sizemore and has been slightly better at getting on base and hitting for power.

I don’t think I could talk myself into a pitcher at all, considering the greater health risks, which we’re seeing already with Chamberlain.

Blackadder wrote:

“One relevant point in comparing Pujols to ARod is league quality: the AL, as we all know, is much better than the NL, and has been for the last few years now. Take that into account, and the hitting gap between then narrows to almost nothing.”

The difference between the leagues probably isn’t quite as pronounced as you might think. Last year for The Hardball Times, Mitchel Lichtman did a very thorough comparison of the talent levels between the AL and NL. And while the AL has had much better hitters since 2001 (when Pujols’ career began), AL pitching was scarcely better, if at all. (The AL had better pitching in 2001 and 2002, but not in 2003-2006, when Lichtman’s study ended.) And that’s really the relevant comparison here, b/c we want to see how Pujols would do against AL pitchers and/or A-Rod vs. NL pitchers.

That said, Blackadder, I agree with your main point: you won’t find a huge difference between Pujols and A-Rod at the plate. Since Pujols entered the league, he’s created 1146 runs. A-Rod has 1112 runs created. Squint your eyes and they’re essentially the same hitter. The difference is defense. Early in that run, A-Rod was much more valuable, simply b/c he was a shortstop (a good one at that). But now Pujols is far more valuable with the glove. I mean, yes, he plays a less demanding position than A-Rod, but I don’t think most people realize just HOW great a defender Pujols is. According to John Dewan’s Plus/Minus fielding system, Pujols makes more extra plays than any player at ANY position on the diamond. That’s absurd. Throw in the fact that Pujols is actually younger than Ryan Howard (and — this freaks me out — only 7 weeks older than new-kid-on-the-block Dan Uggla), and I think it’s pretty clear you’d want Pujols over A-Rod on your team the next several years.

The Mayo Clinic link for ‘pain in the neck’ reminds me of the Fox webmd.com spot in the 2004 postseason where the patient was ‘Red Sox fans’ and the ailment was a broken heart, and we all wanted to punch them.

I cannot fathom the argument that defense is a plus for Pujols over Hanley, A-Rod, etc. He plays 1st base and, while he plays it well, its such undemanding position that its absurb to rate it above SS or 3B play regardless of how below average it is. I wouldn’t go with Pujols in this argument start a franchise exercise since he could only play a position or two (1b and LF). The others could play almost any position on the diamond to a competent standard, or at least in a vastly superior fashion than Pujols. That flexibility would be huge in starting a team. Or think of it this way, if you had a team composed of only one current player playing all 8 positions (non-pitcher) who would you want, certainly a team of A-Rods and Hanley’s would be superior to Pujols.

I think most of the current evaluation systems significantly overrate good defenders at positions on the right hand side of the James spectrum. At the end of the day, if Pujols had value as a defender he wouldn’t be playing 1st base.

David in NYC wrote:

“Everyday players are more valuable than occasional players (including pitchers) of equal talent/ability simply because they play every day.”

I tend to agree that the best hitters are worth more than the best pitchers, but I don’t think it’s as cut-and-dried as you make it out to be. Yes, pitchers don’t play every day. However — to take one example — Brandon Webb leads the league with 669 batters faced. Jose Reyes leads all batters with 532 plate appearances. So who’s had the bigger workload? You’d have to say Webb, right?

I agree with you, John, that roster flexibility is huge when discussing fielding. A competent 3Bman is far more valuable than a competent first baseman b/c he allows you to get a masher who can’t field worth a damn (say, Jason Giambi) into the lineup, whereas you don’t have that option if first base is already taken.

However, your last sentence — “at the end of the day, if Pujols had value as a defender he wouldn’t be playing 1st base” — well, that’s just demonstrably false. Pujols does have value as a defender and he plays first. What am I missing?

With regard to age, Hanley R. is from the DR too, maybe his age isn’t what he says it is either.

If the stat that says that El Hombre makes more plays out of his zone than any player at any position is true, than how can that not be in his favor? I mean, an extra out made is an extra out made, whether the really great 1Bman made the out or the average SS, right?

And he does play other positions, in fact, TLR moved him to 2B this year when he ran out of position players except his backup catcher (who he played at first). It is not fair to say he doesn’t give you flexibility because he has played 6 positions in the field and Hanley has played 1. You are assuming that a SS could play 1B because it is “easier”, but sometimes not. I mean, do you really think Freddie Patek would have been able to competently play 1B?

A couple of people have mentioned Albert winning a game vs. the Rockies when he scored from second on a groundout. The other night against the Phillies in the 8th inning with one out in a tied game, he stole third and scored on a throwing error.

Cardinal hitting coach Hal McRae was asked who Pujols most reminded him of. His answer? Pete Rose.

Obviously McRae wasn’t speaking of his talent, but his every day, every inning, every play focus and intensity. Couple that with his talent, and you’ve got something very, very special.

And Albert can, and has, played RF, LF and 3B competently in his career. In fact, the reason he no longers plays those positions is not because he was a butcher at those positions, but because he has a (throwing) elbow injury that has nagged him for several years and instead of having surgery to repair it and miss a significant number of games, the Cards (and he) have chosen to move him to 1B to avoid reaggravating his elbow. In a pinch, TLR would have no problem playing him at 3B or LF or RF (or even for an inning or two at 2B or SS, both of which TLR has played him at before for a couple innings). I have no doubt that he is the most athletic player on the Cardinals.

You are under the mistaken impression that he is Dave Kingman. He is not. He is a very good athlete whose team wishes him to be on the field as often as possible. To that end, they have chosen to place him at the position he is least likely to reinjure himself.

I would define who is the best player in Baseball (or any sport), by how you answer this question: If you have to win the World Series next year, who is the first player you pick to your team (assuming you have a make believe empty roster)? This makes the angles of age or the size of their current contract irrelevant, as you don’t have to think about what might happen five years from now.

For me, it would be Albert Pujols. He already has a ring, he’s got the numbers, and I can’t forget his Brad Lidge homer.

I have trouble with the “underrated” tag. I think it has more to do with being “under-exposed”. People know how good Albert Pujols, its just that he’s not in a major market, or playing the media circuit or at the centre of controversy every week.

Albert being Albert doesn’t generate the same profile.

John wrote:

“[W]hile Pujols has “value” when comparing him to other first basemen in zone rating or whatever, compared to players in general his defensive value is zero or a negative because he’s limited to only the easier positions to play.”

If I can put your argument a bit crudely, you’re essentially saying: let’s grade all fielders on a scale from 1 to 10, with 5 being average. Pujols is a 4, whereas the average first baseman is a 2. Hanley Ramirez is a 6, whereas the average SS is a 9. Therefore, Pujols may LOOK better under a +/- system (at +2 vs. Ramirez’s minus 3), but in fact Pujols is below average at 4, with a negative fielding contribution, whereas Ramirez is above average at 6.

But that’s not at all how baseball actually works. Ramirez’s “6″ may tell you how athletic he is in comparison to Pujols’ “4″ (that is to say, presumably he’d make a better first baseman than Pujols would a shortstop), but it says nothing about how many runs he’s saving on an actual baseball diamond. It’s already built into Dewan’s system that Ramirez, as a shortstop, has many more chances to prevent runs — he just doesn’t do it. Similarly, Pujols has fewer opportunities to impact the game as a first baseman, but he seizes those opportunities to a degree that’s comparable to, say, a good 3Bman or middle infielder.

In other words, the so-called glitch you point out — that Pujols seems to be graded on a curve b/c he’s going up against he Billy Butlers and Jason Giambis of the world — is already part of Dewan’s system, in the exact same way that VORP compares hitters to other players at their position. And Pujols still comes out ahead of Ramirez.

Jay B, you’re confused. NO ONE is claiming that, b/c Pujols makes more plays than an average 1B, that he has more defensive value than a great catcher, or a great CF, or a great SS. A typical Yady Molina year with the glove is worth many more runs to a team than a typical Pujols year.

But a great 1B can undoubtedly have more defensive value than a fair-to-average 3B like A-Rod. To say that ALL first baseman are less valuable with the glove than ALL third baseman simply isn’t true.

John wrote:

“I don’t believe Pujols was an adequate 3rd baseman.”

Pujols’ numbers at third were solid. Clay Davenport, for example, has him 11 runs above average as a third baseman for ‘01. He moved to left only b/c the Cards acquired an even better fielding third baseman (Scott Rolen) in ‘02.

“When starting a franchise I think I would value players which much more of a defensive presense/flexibility as cornerstones before him.”

I think that’s a totally valid position. If someone wanted to take, say, David Wright over Pujols when starting a franchise, I couldn’t argue with you.

I did not say all 3B have more defensive value than all 1B. But I do strongly believe that a MLB-average defensive 3B has more value than the #1 defensive 1B (be it D.Lee or Pujols or Keith Hernandez).

Keep in mind, a MLB-average 3B is one of the best 3B in the world.
The ability to catch AND throw has value.

Let me ask you this- if you’re holding an open draft of players, to play one-half inning of defense for a bajillion dollars, world peace, etc…. in what round do you pick your 1st baseman? If you don’t say “the 8th round”, you must hate world peace. : )

What a great question to debate. I appreciate the different opinions here, the discussions tend to be a little better than “Joe in Mass thinks David Ortiz RULZ” like some places. I wonder how long it will be until we have the type of technology to adequately track defensive proficiency. It seems that short of having a GPS tracking every player’s movements pre-and post-pitch, it will be largely subjective and bendable to an agenda. As long as we all can agree that Jeter is awesome of course…

One question I have is if anyone has done a study on the affects of position on hitting performance, meaning whether Player A hit better/worse when at a premium position vs. when they switched to a non-premium one. Would be pretty difficult to quantify the effect due to the position change vs. other factors and sample sizes.

And I think that a 1st baseman would have to be HUGE defensively and the 3rd baseman would have to be Ryan Braun for a 1b to have more value when looking for future performance. Just one man’s opinion.

I’m a diehard Cardinals fan, so my opinion might be biased and I won’t comment too much. But about the fielding, someone did correctly post that the reason Pujols is at Firstbase is because of the arm injury he sustained years ago. He was a third baseman, played 1B when McGwire was injured, and learned LF & RF on the fly to keep his bat in the lineup as a rookie - I believe the only player still to start 30 games in a season at 4 positions (how’s that for roster flexibility?). He stayed in LF the next year because Placido Polanco took over 3B (before he was traded for Rolen), then injured his arm and managed to smartly play most of a season in LF without being able to throw the ball to the infield. I think he missed 3 games with that injury. He seemed to be a good fit to stay at 1B and delay the surgery, so he worked hard to make himself the best defender he could be there, and he’s fearless on pickoffs or bunts, throws across the field, or taking balls away from the 2B in the hole. If his arm was healthy, I believe he could play anywhere on the field at an above-average level, except SS or C. And the Cardinals already have a pretty good, underrated catcher.

I am really questioning people on here acting like finding an Albert P. (good at defense at first but would be terrible at third, so I would not take him.) If finding a good hitting 1B player is so easy, why have the Royals not had one forever?

I mean Willie May A. or Steve B. Have we had a good hitting 1B?

Look we are talking about the major leagues. People that can hit are what you are looking for. I would take Big Poppi and Albert any day. Big bats are hard to find. If I am building a team I want four or five big bats in my first few picks.

I still remember when Freddy Tatis was tearing it up at 3B for the cards, and the media couldn’t stop gushing about this “Puh-Joles” guy in the minor leagues. I thought we should trade him because clearly Tatis was the 3b for the next 10 years to come.
Good thing I’m not a GM. And that Bobby Bonilla pulled his hammy.
Great post Joe.

Geoffrey, something is way off in some of your numbers. Those numbers imply that Santana and Johnson face only three batters over the minimum per nine innings!

Santana has faced 664 batters in 161 innings. The minimum number he could have faced is 483. 664 - 483 = 161 batters over the minimum, for a ratio of exactly one batter per inning over the minimum.

I’ve got Johnson’s figure at 1.28.

And the most jaw dropping of Albert’s career resume: 1 MVP award. hard to believe.

You know, every August around this time i get to thinking “man, I miss redbird nation…”

glad to see you online somewhere, Brian.

Actually Mikey, Johan’s at about 1.12 batters over the minimum per inning (181 batters over). This stat’s pretty similar to WHIP in general (Johan’s at 1.16 there), though it doesn’t take into account things like errors behind the pitcher and GIDP. Roy Halladay’s under 1 extra batter per inning, owing largely to his heavy sinker.

For kicks, in Pedro’s insane 2000 season, he faced 0.76 batters over the minimum per inning (WHIP of 0.737) and is at 1.02 for his career (1.04 WHIP).

where the heck is miguel cabrera on this lsit?