It was a good idea because the AL at that time was in a huge offensive era, so the other team risking outs by trying to steal bases might help you in the long run. In one-run games, it might not be such a great idea. And in a lower run scoring environment it might not work so well.

I wonder if there would be certain situtations where a pitcher might be better off pitching from the windup, even with a runner on first– say a pitcher who is just way better from the windup has two out and a very slow runner on first.

Some runners are so slow and seem to pay so little attention, you might be able to get away with it without giving up a steal every time. If a pitcher’s much worse in the stretch, maybe it’d be worth it– a pitcher like, say Clay Buchholz lately?

From BP’s glossary:

QuikERA (QERA), which estimates what a pitcher’s ERA should be based solely on his strikeout rate, walk rate, and GB/FB ratio. These three components–K rate, BB rate, GB/FB–stabilize very quickly, and they have the strongest predictive relationship with a pitcher’s ERA going forward. What’s more, they are not very dependent on park effects, allowing us to make reasonable comparisons of pitchers across different teams.

The formula for QERA is as follows:

QERA =(2.69+K%*(-3.4)+BB%*3.88+GB%*(-0.66))^2

Note that everything ends up expressed in terms of percentages: strikeouts per opponent plate appearance, walks per opponent plate appearance, and groundballs as a percentage of all balls hit into play. Andy Pettitte, for example, has a 19.6% K rate, a 7.9% BB rate, and a 62.7% GB rate, giving him a QERA of 3.68. Note further that QERA is exponential, which is appropriate since run scoring is not linear.

I think it would be interesting to correlate SB, CS, CS% and handidness with how well someone pitched out of the stretch. For instance Maddux notoriously holds runners poorly. This is largely a choice he has made. I suspect his performance pitching from the stretch is closer to his performance pitching from the windup than most pitchers. Some righty who holds runners well might have a larger deviation because he pays so much attention to the runners. I think leftys and righties ought to be seperated from each other fof the purpose of such a study.

Nice work. I think an extreme pop-up pitcher would be a power pitcher. Like how people say a fastball “rises”. To generate a pop-up you have to do the opposite of a ground ball, get a pitch to “rise”. I think I would be in favor of incorporating HR/FB and IFFB%. The problem is that HR/FB Does not vary all that much so it really would not have that great of an impact on the standings. The problem with IFFB% is that it dramatically favors relievers.

I think the numbers need to bias towards the groundball pitchers. Think about it, lets say a pitcher averages 7 innings (21 outs). The best pitcher will only have 7.8 strikeouts (average is 5). The rest are either line outs, ground balls, or fly balls. Line drives go for hits an absurd percent of the time so lets forget about that. A fly ball can leave the park so favor the most common out, ground balls. On average 16 “other” outs need to be made, that is more than three times the number of Ks. Of course this would not apply to relievers, as a strikeout is often needed by them.

I’m done rambling, back to work.

I like the idea. However, if “89″ is the league avg., and you’ve got all these guys up there in the 100s and 200s, and Barry Zito is down there only, something is wrong with your math if you think “100″ is 10% above avg. Pitching stats–like pretty much everything else in baseball–are, however you choose to mix, match, and interpret them, still normally distributed, which is pretty beautiful if you think about it. Stats like OPS and ERA (+) work because, if you look at the data points, they are essentially symmetrical, all the way out to the outliers. Your graph would belie the distributive consistency of baseball, which leaves me somewhat skeptical. I suggest you give some more thought to your scale and recalibrate.

Rocketman: I like the standardization approach, because we’re unsure of the scales of K/BB and GF/FB, and you’re explanation of HR/9 is spot on. However, it should be noted that OBP*SLG is generally considered a better measure than OPS, and is the basis for Bill James’ original runs created formula (OBP*SLG*AB, since revised).

As an alternative to standardization, you might consider treating K/9 and BB/9 separately. Walks may have a greater effect on pitchers who have lower GB/FB ratios, so treating individuals with 12 K/9 and 4 BB/9 as equal to those with 6 K/9 and 2 BB/9 may not be appropriate.

Lastly, simply subtracting then dividing by the league average value may not give you the results you’re looking for if there are large differences in the variance of the two stats. If you’re looking for standardization in the statistical sense, subtract the mean and divide by the standard deviation to equate the scales.

Good work from everyone involved.

Ziegler# Z+ Z+adj”

Rocketman, you are a brilliant, brilliant individual. bravo!

And no, no, HELL NO on the crafty righty. That’s a lefty honor. Righties are “warriors.”
Lefties are “crafty.”

Instead of multiplying by 10 to get nice big numbers, how does it look if you multiply by K/9?

Faster than any other pitcher I’ve ever seen, as soon as Lowe has some kind of bad play behind him, no matter the inning, he’s likely to lose it. If it happens with nobody out, then he gives up (say) one unearned run and some earned runs. If it happens with two outs, he only gives up unearned runs. It affects his W/L, his runs allowed, his earned runs allowed.

In Bob Hamman’s auotbiography (he is arguably the best bridge player alive, winner of multiple world championships) he wrote that his bridge game really improved when he stopped worrying about what went wrong on a hand until after the session of bridge was over, and just focused on the next hand. In baseball this is even easier; every game is taped, there are coaches to remind you what you did wrong, and you get to regroup between innings. Lowe just lacks that ability. I bet if you did a study showing the number of runs scored in innings with a defensive error, Lowe would come out as one of the worst pitchers in baseball. And if I were Russell Martin (or even Joe Torre) after each error I would go out to the mound, tell Lowe to regroup, to pretend that error was a bloop single, and get the next guy out. Because when Lowe doesn’t have errors behind him, he’s pretty darned good.