There are so many things you can learn playing Strat-o-Matic baseball (or some other table top baseball game). I used to play a lot when I was in my young 20s, back when I lived in Augusta, Ga., and was not married and got dumped and could not afford to do anything else. We would have intense, marathon Strat-o-Matic sessions, long into the night — there would be hard feelings and yelling and thrown pencils and busted friendships and all sorts of other signs that suggested we were taking that game a tad bit too seriously.*
*This reminds me of Mike and the Mad Dog — who I would say make up the most successful sports talk radio team ever, right? They’re the 800 pound gorilla of New York sports, right? Well, they recently had a rift that apparently intensified to the breaking point over this question: Is Don Nelson a basketball Hall of Famer? I mean, seriously. Nellie? That’s the fight? I don’t know — I just find that be very funny. Here are two guys making millions of dollars, they are absolutely at the very top of their thing, they can’t go any higher, life is good, and they almost break up over Nellie? We really do lose our minds sometimes, don’t we? It makes me wonder if this gets to the heart of human nature, if it’s always something that stupid, if Jerry Lewis and Dean Martin broke up over the Bing vs. Frank question., if Simon and Garfunkel split over Ginger and Mary Ann, if Brad likes his Cheetos crunchy and Jen much prefers them Flamin’.
I would say the four biggest lessons I learned playing a lot of Strat-o-Matic were these:
1. A terrible defensive shortstop will absolutely kill you.
2. Sacrifice bunts often do not work. This is the X-factor in bunting that few seem to talk about. People like to argue whether or not it philosophically makes sense to give up an out to advance a base. Some say yes, some say no, most say it depends on the situation, but the missing piece of the argument is this: Pretty often you give up the out and DO NOT get the base. Sometimes the runner is forced at second base. Sometimes the batter pops-up his bunt. Or the batters bunts into a double play — seen that a couple of times this year. Managing a lot of games, even pretend games, reminds you that it’s important to calculate those worthless outs into the equation.
3. It sucks to face teams that walk a lot. All the stuff we know to be true as fans — that walks wear down pitchers, that they extend innings, that walks will beat you — is magnified by 100 when you’re actually managing games. I HATED facing guys that walked in 1992 — I especially recall facing Frank Thomas and Danny Tartabull.* Those guys drove me mad.
*Only two Kansas City Royals players have ever had a 170 OPS+ or better in a single season. George Brett, of course, did it twice — in his extraordinary 1980 season, and in his should-have-been-MVP year of 1985. The other was Danny Tartabull in 1991. The funny part is that, from what I gather, nobody liked Tartabull in town, everyone felt like he was the master of the meaningless RBI, the king of empty numbers. I don’t know. The guy went .316/.391/.593 with 31 homers back in 1991, when those numbers were beyond monstrous. It would be awfully tough to put up those sorts of numbers and not help the ballclub.
4. You do not play Ross Gload every day.
Of course, it wasn’t Ross Gload when I was playing Strat-O … it was Jody Reed back then. But Gload fits the rule much better. This is certainly nothing personal against Gload, who can be a valuable player. In fact, it is his value that makes the rule go. I’ve already introduced the Ross Gload rule in an earlier post, but let me reiterate it here:
The Gloaden Rule
1. Use Ross Gload correctly, he will help your team win games.
2. Use Ross Gload incorrectly, he will get you fired.
The Gloaden Rule is pretty simply understood. In 2004, when Ross Gload was a 28-year-old rookie, he hit .321/.375/.479 with the White Sox in 234 at-bats. He played four different positions and DH. In 2006, he hit about the same in 156 at-bats, played three positions and even stole six bases without getting caught. In both cases, Gload was used sparingly, and he was a valuable player. That’s how you win with him.
In 2008, the Kansas City Royals play Ross Gload at first base every day. Every day. He’s 32 years old now, he’s hitting .262./.313/.333 with a 71 OPS+. Playing him every day, yeah, that’s how you get fired with him.
The Gloaden Rule seems basic enough — so you may ask: Why would a manager as hardworking and pointedly unafraid of innovation as Trey Hillman play Ross Gload at first base every day? Well, I’ve touched on this before: I believe this is because at some point baseball managers, especially when they are managing losing teams, start to overvalue that dreaded word, “Consistency.”
They can’t help it, really. Baseball is such a mysterious game, if you think about. It’s the only game where really good teams lose 40 to 45 percent of the time. It’s the only game, i think, where if the worst team plays the best team six times, it will almost certainly win once or twice, and maybe more. In baseball, the smart move often fails, the ridiculous on occasion works, a lineup picked out of a hat sometimes scores 10 runs, a terrible team can be in first place after a month, it’s a raging sea of randomness, and I sense that many managers need to have SOMETHING they can count on.
So, no Ross Gload doesn’t hit for any power, and he doesn’t walk, and he can’t run, and his swing has developed to the point where he has no chance against lefties, and he’s at that age where his batting average is heading South for the winter, and the fielding numbers indicate that he’s certainly nothing special as a defensive first baseman. And more than anything he has absolutely no long-term future with the Royals — he’s not part of the plan.
So why is he out there? Well, with Ross Gload, you KNOW what you’re going to get. Consistency. You’re gonna get a guy that’s gonna get you five or six hits every 20 at-bats, maybe seven sometimes. You’re gonna get a guy who catches the ball and looks good scooping balls out of the dirt (lefties have that great look). Consistency. He’s not a good every day player. But he’s CONSISTENTLY not good every day.
He also brings veteran leadership. I know that those words “veteran leadership,” make many laugh, and they should, but I understand the reason why some managers cherish it. Veteran leader do give managers one less thing to worry about. With Ross Gload out there, Trey Hillman must feel with certainty, “OK, if nothing else, my first baseman isn’t going to do anything STUPID.” True, he isn’t likely to do anything that will help you win the game either. But I think that it’s a sport truism that most managers and coaches try harder not to lose than they try to win. It is a part of our sports fabric. Eliminate mistakes. Cut down on penalties. Punt the ball away on fourth and short. Play fundamentally sound. The team that makes the fewest mistakes wins. And so on.
That’s the mindset that makes managers break The Gloaden Rule.*
*While I have invented The Gloaden Rule, I must admit that I do not see any obvious way that I can make any money off of it. Fortunately, I do have a new, get-rich-quick scheme. I was talking to good friend Tommy Tomlinson — who is recovering well from recent open-heart surgery – and I came up with it. You ready for this? I should get a patent before mentioning it here, but what the heck, you people won’t backstab me. You ready? “Airplane Study Centers.” No, listen, it’s brilliant. Let’s say you are studying for a big test — the Bar, the SAT, the CPA Exam, whatever. Normally you buy books or go to overpriced classes or whatever. Well, here’s my idea: You pay a certain amount of money, and then, at the right time, you go to the airport. And once there, you board an Airplane Study Center. This is based on my not-quite-proven theory that people ALWAYS study better on planes, because there’s nothing else to do, and the seats are just uncomfortable enough to keep you awake, and the movies suck. I will get on a plane Monday for Beijing knowing nothing whatsoever about these Olympics, and by the time I land will be able to tell you what color Dara Torres paints her toenails.
I’m telling you — this idea flies. You get on the plane and you study for your test — bigger tests naturally would demand longer flights to, say, Australia. Smaller study flights might land in Cleveland. The fight attendants of course, are all trained tutors if you need any help or a small bag of peanuts. The pilot will occasionally come on the loudspeaker to announce that the Rocky Mountains are on your right and that Clara Barton founded the American Red Cross. I’ve got a way to save the airline industry, people … why are you not listening to me?
So, now I offer youThe Gloaden Rule All-Stars of 2008. To make this team you have to be:
1. Older than 30 — and the older the better (or worse, depending on your perspective)
2. Having a representatively bad year — in other words you don’t qualify for the team if you are actually a good every day player simply having a bad year.
3. A player who, if used more sparingly, would be valuable. But in their current role, they will sooner or later get the manager fired.
4. In the negative VORP.*
*Baseball Prospectus’ VORP is probably the most picked-on advanced stat going. I suspect it is because the acronym sounds like a burp. It’s an easy target for those professionals not living in their mothers’ basements. But it’s a great statistic and one of the most useful going because it attempts to give you something real. As the “Value Over Replacement Player” title would suggest, VORP tries to estimate how much more valuable your player is than the guy stuck in Class AAA. VORP suggests that Matt Holliday, for instance, is 48.4 runs better than the left fielder Colorado could find in Colorado Springs or could get in an easy trade. That’s a lot. Meanwhile, Ross Gload has a -7.4 VORP, which means that the Royals could find a more valuable offensive first baseman in most mid-sized cities throughout the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. A negative VORP is REALLY REALLY BAD. For the record.
Here are your All-Stars.
– Ross Gload, Royals, -7.4 VORP. Of course.
– Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh, -13.4 VORP. I don’t think Sanchez precisely fits here … he was very good in 2006 as a 28-year-old. But even then you could see something troubling — he didn’t walk, didn’t hit for power, couldn’t run. He had a high batting average that one good year (.344), and guys like that can regress very quickly. Sanchez might still have a few hits left in his bad, but he also might be the worst every day player in the big leagues this year.
– Jason Kendall, Milwaukee, -0.7 VORP. Last year, I rather uncharitably called Kendall the worst player in baseball. He has improved. He has a 74 OPS+, which is significantly BETTER than last year. He also matched last year’s total with one home run. He has done a much better job throwing out base runners this year — he has caught 28 out of 65 this year which is a whole lot different from catching 5 out of 57 like last season. Plus you do hear pitchers say they like to throw to him. Still, it’s hard to believe he is on pace for another 500 plate appearance season. Catchers really must be hard to find.
– Jose Vidro, Seattle, -9.1 VORP. I’ve written about VIdro already here, so I’ll add just one word. Inexplicable. That’s all.
– Emil Brown, Oakland -3.7 VORP. OK, I think most of you may recall that before the year began I made a few predictions. One of those predictions was that Tampa Bay would contend for a playoff spot into late August, early September while I was not crazy at all about the Blue Jays. OK, it’s a bit early, but a few of your readers really bashed me on that one, and I want my pound of flesh, people. Stand up, be heard.
I also predicted that Johan Santana would win the Cy Young and pitch the Mets first no-hitter. Well, Santana does have a 2.93 ERA, he’s Top 10 in strikeouts, but he’s not pitching nearly as well as I thought he would. I expected him to to to New York and utterly DOMINATE, Pedro Lite, and that hasn’t happened. And the no-hitter thing almost certainly won’t happen because Santana is averaging fewer than seven innings per start — though he did finally complete his first game the other day. So I’m fully prepared to take my beating on that one.
The third prediction is the one I’ve been following most closely through the year — I predicted that, given the same number of at-bats, Emil Brown would post roughly the same numbers at Jose Guillen. I realized it was borderline ridiculous when I made the prediction, but I wanted to exaggerate just to emphasize the point: The Royals RELEASED Brown. The Royals made Guillen their highest paid player ever. And I didn’t see THAT big a difference between them.
Then, Brown got off to a pretty good start while Guillen was awful at the beginning of the year. So I was beginning to feel pretty good about my Nostradamus-like powers. Then Guillen went on a freaking super-tear — I rarely remember seeing someone hit the ball so hard for so many consecutive days. And I bowed down to the obvious and admitted defeat.
Well, as ESPN’s Lee Corso likes to say … “Did you know my record at Indiana was 41-68-2?” No, wait, that’s not what he says. He says, “Not so fast, my friend.” Yes, Jose Guillen is hitting .153 with one home run his last 27 games. And let’s check the new totals on the tote-board, shall we? Timpani, please!
Jose Guillen: .259/.286/.442 with 14 homers, 71 RBIs, 43 runs in 398 at-bats. His OPS+: 90.
Emil Brown: .244/.288/.384 with 9 homers, 50 RBIs, 41 runs in 318 at-bats. His OPS+: 84.
Whoa, whoa, whoa … suddenly those numbers are not so different, are they? It’s funny, based on my emails I sense that a lot of people in Kansas City are under the misguided perception that Guillen is having a good year on the field. He is not. He had a really good six weeks in the middle of the year. But he’s been so bad the rest of the time that, despite the RBI numbers, his season totals are pretty miserable. A 90 OPS+ for an outfielder signed for $12 million per year is either comedy or tragedy, depending on your perspective.
Take a look at the neutralized numbers:
Jose Guillen: .250/.277/.426 with 20 homers, 103 RBIs, 63 runs in 584 at-bats.
Emil Brown: .252/.293/.390 with 14 homers, 83 RBIs, 68 runs in 484 at-bats.
True, Guillen has a big lead in RBIs, but a large part of that is obviously a function of his place in the batting order and getting 25% more at-bats than Brown. Yes, let me be clear, Guillen IS having a better year than Brown because he’s hitting with a little bit more power, but it ain’t by much, and there are still two months left in the season. The race is back on … Guillen might want to get hot again.
Gary Matthews Jr., -5.5 VORP. OK, so f you’re a baseball general manager just checking out the site, hi, welcome, thanks for stopping by, and I’d like to just offer a quick bit of free advice. If you come across an outfielder who doesn’t walk much but strikes out a lot, a player who hits with moderate power in a really good hitters’ park, a player who out of nowhere hits .313 when nothing in his past predicted that he could, a player whose defensive numbers don’t look very special but who has made a catch or two that got him air time SportsCenter, a player who is about to turn 32 … yeah, don’t sign that player to a five year, $50 million deal. That guy might help you, no doubt about it, but don’t just go crazy to get him.
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57 Comments, Comment or Ping
Alan
Jose Guillen. Wake me up when the nightmare is over.
At least he is not injured (Juan Gone).
Jul 31st, 2008
Ron
Is there any way to define the abilities of a manager and a general manager and add Hillman and Moore to the list?
Jul 31st, 2008
Bill
One thing I learned from Strat-O-Matic is that there are LO-4s and LO-6es like twelve times a game. You might often go to a *real* game and never see one at all, but I guess that just means you weren’t paying enough attention.
Jul 31st, 2008
Mac
I’ll trade you Jeff Francoeur for Gload. At least Gload doesn’t make mistakes and gives the elusive veteran leadershipt. Francoeur sucks, he makes stupid decisions, and he whined about being sent to the minors for three whole days.
Jul 31st, 2008
Jimmy
Anyone else disappointed that the Royals didn’t make a move today?
Jul 31st, 2008
Justin Zeth
I’m surprised Slappy Pierre isn’t on this list. He’s the first guy I thought of. Very valuable as a fourth outfielder, but he’ll get you fired playing every day and is ESPECIALLY horrible batting 1st in the lineup, which of course he always does.
Jul 31st, 2008
Daniel
You know what’s the best part about signing marginal backup outfielders to $50 million deals? When the GM also puts a no trade clause in the deal. I’m not sure if that’s terrible or just redundant, since who the heck would trade for Gary Matthews Jr. anyway?
Jul 31st, 2008
Marcel
Is there some reason why Moore didn’t jump at the opportunity to dump Guillen on the Braves when they asked about his availability?
Jul 31st, 2008
Tony in Hitchin
“This idea…flies”?
Jul 31st, 2008
Justyo
“Airplane Study Center … This idea flies.”
Hilarious.
(Oh and the line about Dara Torres toenail polish might be a bit too much information.)
Jul 31st, 2008
Blackadder
If the rumors that the White Sox are going to play Griffey in CF are true, then, taking into account defense, he will be one of the worst regulars in baseball.
Jul 31st, 2008
TC
I understand he probably falls into the category of a “pretty good player having a bad year”, but Vidro was better than him last year, and only slightly worse the year before, and this year, Vidro is way better than he of whom I speak. Who’s that? Kenji Johjima, who is just preposterously bad, and somehow, going wildly unnoticed as he does it. Anytime anyone mentions how bad Vidro has been, I cannot believe Johjima isn’t also brought up. Vidro beats Johjima in OPS+ by 16 points. SIXTEEN!
Jul 31st, 2008
Windier E. Megatons
@Justin Zeth: This will be shocking, but Pierre’s VORP this year is positive; 2.2, not exactly on the high side, but positive. Of course this doesn’t take his noodle arm into consideration. But the VORP on the right side of zero makes him ineligible for Joe’s list.
Jul 31st, 2008
Ed Armbrister
Griffey almost has to play center because Quentin and Dye aren’t CFs either. They have been playing Swisher there, who probably isn’t any better.
Jul 31st, 2008
Preston
Off topic, but I was reminded of the post from a few weeks ago on retired numbers: I recently moved to the Philly area, and watching the game tonight, I find out they are about to put Juan Samuel on their Wall of Fame - apparently, they add one player a year (a fan vote narrows it from 15 to 5 players, then a committee picks one); this has been going on for 30 years now. Now, I know this isn’t an honor on the level of a retired number, but at this point haven’t we moved from a “Wall of Fame” to a “Wall of Decent Players Remembered Fondly by Local Fans”?
Jul 31st, 2008
Ryan Jones
Last year, Kendall was worse than stated. He only threw out 5 of 57 runners with the Cubs. He went 15 for 74 with Oakland before that. So, overall, he was 20 for 131, which is just abysmal.
Jul 31st, 2008
Jeff P
I had heard that Trey was supposed to be this innovative genius but I gotta tell ya I’m not seeing it. He was supposed to be thinking outside the box but I dont think he can find the exit.
Jul 31st, 2008
Paul White
Some additional candidates:
Geoff Jenkins, 78 OPS+, -3.1 VORP. Once a pretty nice player, and a fabulous Brett Favre lookalike, but now he’s D-U-N done as a regular player.
Paul Bako, 65 OPS+, -5.7 VORP. A good enough receiver to carve out a nice career as a backup with ten, count ‘em, ten different teams, he’s suddenly on pace to get more plate appearances this season than in any other year of his career. With a career OPS+ mark of 62, “regular” is not a role that suits him.
Any of the Astros poo-poo platter of Darin Erstad, Brad Ausmus and Geoff Blum. If not for the fact that these guys are sometimes on the field at the same time, I’d swear they were all the same guy.
Excellent future candidates who aren’t old enough yet:
Jason Bartlett
Michael Bourn
Yorvit Torrealba
Felipe Lopez
Bill Hall
Jul 31st, 2008
Aaron M.
Joe Quote: “Baseball Prospectus’ VORP is probably the most picked-on advanced stat going. I suspect it is because the acronym sounds like a burp.”
If we can’t pronounce it “ops”, you can’t pronounce this “vorp”, you have to say V-O-R-P!!
I think it comes down to syllables saved. You only would save 1 if we allowed ERA to be pronounced “era”. But with O P S and V O R P, you can save 2 or 3. And the “ops is already a word” argument doesn’t fly. How often do you use the word “ops” in your life? ERA and “era” are both used in baseball, so obviously we don’t necessarily want a word used 2 different ways. But what is “ops” in baseball, and for that matter what is “vorp”? I mean if you have to say V-O-R-P, you might as well call it by it’s true name Value Over Replacement Player and then everyone knows what you are talking about.
Jul 31st, 2008
RON 2
I’m not too disappointed they didn’t make a move today. We kept the young studs and the future of the franchise. I like the way they are playing but I think the Royals would be just as well off without Gload and Guillen. I would like to see BB play first or call up Ryan Shealy and give him a look these last couple of months.
Jul 31st, 2008
tex
Erstad, Ausmus, and Blum are all on the field at the same time? No wonder the Astros are losing.
Jul 31st, 2008
Rob
Back pretty much right out of college, a bunch of buddies and myself used to have a Strat-O-Matic league, kind of like Roto, where we would get the new season’s cards in and draft teams, each guy having 2 teams and playing in two leagues that would lead to a World Series We’d be able to draft NL and AL guys together—made the draft a real fun one)—there was some money involved as well–very enjoyable if you have enough guys to pull it off.
And Yes, resoundingly so, catching is VERY hard to find in the day and age….
Jul 31st, 2008
Bobby Mac
If making an inadvertent sexual reference in speech is a “Freudian Slip”, is the following a “Jamesian Typo?” — “Sanchez might still have a few hits left in his bad, but he also might be the worst every day player in the big leagues this year. “
Jul 31st, 2008
David Wintheiser
The thing I learned from table-top games (Pursue the Pennant was my choice) was that it was a hell of a lot easier and more fun to manage when you took a reasonbly good team.
In 1984, I managed the ‘83 Texas Rangers while a friend managed the Baltimore Orioles from the same season; I was nearly burned out after 60 games, while my friend boldly forged on through nearly the full season before finally running out of steam.
In 1991 I learned my lesson and took the 1990 Cincinnati Reds. Much more fun.
Joe Torre, I’m looking at you.
Aug 1st, 2008
Jon Morse
Joe, I have to correct something from the NY Times discussion on “Mexicutioner”:
“I like the name, though I must say that it has a cottage industry in town to take credit for it. That part’s annoying, especially because it does seem that Rany came up with it.”
What’s annoying is that it was in use on Royals Review for several weeks (first used there by TXRoyal on April 3) before it ever showed up on Rany’s blog (suggested in comments by “qm” on May 19). Rany’s certainly responsible for its gaining wider traction; I’m sure Bob got it from there, not from RR, and it didn’t overtake other nicknames as the primary one in use even on RR until after Rany “settled” on it. So Rany certainly does deserve a chunk of the credit, but it didn’t start there, and really is more of a gestalt effort within the community.
But Rany absolutely didn’t “come up with it” and even he admits that.
Aug 1st, 2008
Richard Aronson
Might I suggest Andruw Jones? Overweight, over 30, had his worst season ever last year, and the Dodgers would be thrilled to have Jones hitting like he did last year. Yeah, I have heard the PED rumors, but I’ll say this. As a rule, PEDs don’t make you better, they make you heal faster and grow muscle faster so that the work you put in to be better is more effective. And for that to happen, you have to put in some work. A *lot* of why Jones is making more money per season than I’ll make in my lifetime is because of his gold gloves, but if you show up slow and fat because you stopped doing your off season workouts because you stopped taking your PEDs, you deserve what happens to you. He could at least have shown up in shape.
And in the case of Andruw Jones (and to some extent Juan Pierre) what happened is Manny Ramirez. So I predict that the Dodgers do what they should have done when Jones needed surgery, and give him a *long* rehab stint in the hopes that he might find his swing again (if it didn’t come from muscles he no longer has) because nobody’s going to claim Jones off the wire when the Dodgers send him down. If Jones starts hitting again regularly, maybe drops 20 pounds, then it makes the decision about whether to try to sign Manny for next year a lot cheaper. And if Jones doesn’t, well, Pierre brings more value to the Dodgers than Jones does, and I say that *hating* Juan Pierre. But Pierre is a great base stealer, and will make a good sacrifice bunt (none of those bunting into double plays tonight; he moved the runners along to second and third down one run with nobody out in the eighth) and has a good attitude for the “Me Firsts” like Matt Kemp, who really needs to study guys like Russell Martin and Jeff Kent and figure out that a useful out that leads to a run and a win can be better than a .300 batting average when none of the .700 help the team.
Of course, the Manny trade looks real good for the Dodgers. But I look at Andy LaRoche, and I see a guy who but for a freak throw by a third string catcher would have been the starting third baseman, a guy who was hitting over .300 in spring training IIRC, and has more walks than strikeouts this year, and looks like he could play second in a pinch. Now I see the Dodgers are forced to resign Casey Blake (who’s been fine this year, but doesn’t really have much upside or career left) or count on Blake DeWitt, and they get to choose between way overpaid Nomar at shortstop or fragile Furcal, both of them unsigned for next season, and Kent looks like his home run power has become double power and his double power has become outs, as tends to happens to guys his age who don’t use PEDs, and suddenly a team with a lot of young choices to try and fill all the upcoming holes doesn’t have so many choices. And even though Manny has hit well everywhere, going from Fenway to Dodger Stadium looks likely to cut down on his numbers. So the Dodgers had better make the playoffs this year, because next year doesn’t look so good right now.
Anyway, it sounds a *lot* like Gloaden should be in a platoon, not full time. Some players can’t handle full time play, I don’t know why. But if there’s a role player easier to find than a right handed platoon first baseman, I don’t know it. That’s what Nomar should be right now (if healthy) if only the Dodgers had insisted Furcal have the surgery as soon as he got hurt. Instead, Nomar became the full time short stop, and now he’s trying to heal faster to avoid the DL because he’s brittle. And I completely blame Colletti. It’s the GM’s job to make smart decisions, especially about using the disabled list and forcing injured players to get healthy.
Aug 1st, 2008
Brandon from MO
Ross Gload has made 41 starts in a row (from June 14th to July 30th). His hitting over that time: .284/.344/.385 (in 163 PAs)
That should prove that while Trey Hillman is nutty for putting Ross Gload in as a starter for 41 straight games, Gload hasn’t sucked during “The Streak”
Gload did suck very badly before the streak. Hitting .239/.277/.276 going into the June 14th game.
The hitting numbers for “The Streak” were much higher going from June 14th to July 13th (.327/.389/.416)
But the Gload situation isn’t as bad as the Guillen situation
Guillen hitting..
as a LFer: .264/.293/.410 (150 PA)
as a RFer: .224/.248/.401 (153 PA)
as a DH: .302/.324/.547 (111 PA)
so when Guillen is hurt and unable to field, what does Trey do? START JOSE IN RIGHT FIELD
facepalm
facepalm
facepalm
When Gload hits 50 starts in a row, someone has to bring a sign to note this fact. Watch out Cal Ripken, Ross Gload is hot on your trail!
Aug 1st, 2008
Mike Bagnall
If the Royals want somebody on first base who will do less harm to the team than Ross Gload, it looks to me as though they would have to hire somebody they don’t presently have. Now then, I ask you this. Is playing Ross Gload instead of someone worse really such a horrible decision? Perhaps the Royals are right and Butler should be allowed to concentrate on hitting this season and learn how to play first base on his own time. Maybe they could arrange for John Mayberry to adopt him for the winter.
Aug 1st, 2008
Oddibe Kerfeld
Hey, way off topic here, but I’m curious what Joe thinks of the show My Boys on TBS. I’ve watched most of the episodes I think, but its really starting to irk me now. It is supposed to be about a female sports writer in Chicago, but I can’t recall the last time I saw this character covering a sporting event. Instead she sits at home every night and plays poker with her “boys.” This show just seems odd to me. Jim Gaffigan is funny and there seems to be the potential for humor here and there, but by and large its a flop. It also seems to have “seasons” that last for about 6 episodes. There’s got to be more sports related material out there for them with this show, but it seems like they use less and less of it.
Aug 1st, 2008
Mikey
I also thought Santana would be more dominant.
You know, the longer I live in New York the more I think that the great majority of people who move here - in any walk of life- need an adjustment year. If you look at big acquisitions by the NY teams I think you’ll see that a lot of them didn’t really find their way until year two.
New York is a grind. It has a lot going for it, to say the least, but if you’re used to the relatively comfortable rhythm of Minneapolis, NYC is a big adjustment. Just stuff like getting to the ballpark and figuring out where to eat and so on.
Santana’s had a nice year and he hasn’t had much run support, but I think we will see him really dominate in year two.
Aug 1st, 2008
Brent
Joe:
Great stuff. I have an assignment for you, because I couldn’t find the answer. TP Jr.’s current OPS+ is -3. Normally you don’t see a negative OPS unless the person has less than 10 plate appearances. It is really hard to “achieve.” Now it would appear that he isn’t going to play much the rest of the year, so he conceivably could finish the year with a negative OPS with over 200 plate appearances (if my math is right he is currently at 195 PA, 187 ABs, 5 BB (2 intentional, what were the circumstances of that?!!!), 2 sacrifices and 1 SF) That is truly bad.
Anyway, I was trying to find someone as historically bad as that and couldn’t come up with anyone. I remembered that Roy Oyler, the SS on the 1968 Tigers, was such a bad hitter that the Tigers converted their CF to SS for the World Series, so I checked him out.
SS Ray Oyler 29 111 215 13 29 6 1 1 12 20 59 .135 .213 .186 0 2 8 2 7 3 0 20
The last column is his OPS+. So a guy who hits .135/.213/.186 has a positive OPS+, but TP Jr. does not. Wow!
Anyway, Oyler was the worst I could think of (Oh, I did try the hopelessly bad 2Bmen the A’s had on their WS teams too, you know, the ones that Dick Williams would play all 3 of them and let none of them bat in a game (pinch hitting each time their spot came up in the order), but they were not even close)
Aug 1st, 2008
Art Radley
Jose Molina: OPS+ 56, VORP -7.1
Molina may be a different case since he was only playing so much since Posada is out, but one gets the impression that Girardi really preferred Molina back there, and in fact the bozo Yankee radio broadcasters quoted Girardi to the effect that without Molina the Yankees (+13 at the time) would be below .500. (This after they went on and on ad nauseum about what a great player Molina is, a real clutch hitter, just like they used to go on about Miguel Cairo.)
Separated at birth?:
Jose Molina 2008: .226/.278/.303
Joe Girardi 2002: .226/.275/.291
Aug 1st, 2008
Sabby
I would like to note that this past Sunday, the Mariners played the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays’ only run was supplied by a John MacDonald home run (which I predicted, to my credit - I’m a big Johnnie Mac fan), while the Mariners got runs on a Jose Vidro home run and a Kenji Jojima double. Think about that - three of the worst hitters in the majors combined for 2 HRs and 5 RBI. I’m not saying it means anything, I’m just saying that it’s very frustrating watching your team get beaten by truly awful hitters.
Aug 1st, 2008
Brandon
In the circle I run with, we call this the “Mike Lamb Rule.”
Aug 1st, 2008
John R.
Brent:
First name I came up with: Bill Bergen.
Year/PA/OPS+
1901/326/29
1902/342/30
1903/218/41
1904/347/28
1905/265/32
1906/372/16
1907/143/12
1908/320/31
1909/372/1
1910/273/6
1911/250/-4
Career:3228/21
Career batting line: .170/.194/.201
Honorable mention: Rafael Belliard, 1996: 148 PA, OPS+ of 2.
Aug 1st, 2008
Brent
Gload reminds me of my least favorite Royals 1Bman ever. Partially this is due to unfavorable comparisons to the guy who preceded him and the guy who took his place, but partially because it is with him that I learned that you never want a 1Bman who hits like a shortstop even if he is a “great” fielder, has a funny name in a dirty way, and has famous relatives. Anyway, I give you Pete LaCock:
1979 27 KCR AL 132 408 54 113 25 4 3 56 2 1 37 26 .277 .334 .380 91 155 1 6 7 1 16
Since Pete conspired with Ed Farmer’s fastballs to Al Cowens face and Frank White’s hand to keep the Royals out of the playoffs in 1979, I have never, ever liked a 1Bman who couldn’t remind me of Harmon Killebrew a little bit when he came to the plate, even if that meant giving up a little on defense (see Willie Aikens, e.g.)
Aug 1st, 2008
Marco
D A V I D D E L L U C C I
Aug 1st, 2008
Andy
Joe,
I think Guillen will get hot again, and put this Brown v. Guillen issue to rest.
I know a lot of KC fans are high on Gload. He is the exact type of player K.Citians like to root for, the “blue collar, lunch pail” type. The thing we are missing is the superstar(s) that makes up for Gload’s short comings. If we ever do get that superstar player, and get in contention, I have a feeling Gload (or someone else of his ilk) will reach cult figure status around here.
Aug 1st, 2008
Brent
John R.:
I am guessing Bergen was a catcher. So, TP Jr’s season is comparable to a Dead Ball Era’s catcher’s offense. Very nice. Oh, I see he played for Brooklyn, so TP Jr’s season is comparable to a Dead Ball Era’s catcher’s offense for a bad team. I will do the comps from Baseballreference.com to find more (I see already that Ray Oyler has the 5th most similar career to Bergen, nice to know I was on the right track
)
Aug 1st, 2008
Brain
I was having an argument with a friend about Gload playing every day. He thought he should I thought he should only be used as a utility guy. So I went to look up the numbers for when he was used as a utility player and when he played every day. He only hit for an extra 10 points as a utility player, everything else was pretty much the same. So I went through all of his splits and found that his first half/second half split was the big difference. For his career his has an 81 OPS+ in the first half of the season and 119 OPS+ for the second half. Dude just catches fire the second half every year.
Aug 1st, 2008
Bellylard
I’m thinking Tom Brookens was a guy like this in the 1980s for Detroit.
Aug 1st, 2008
Bellylard
It’s looking like the Mariners are going to corner the market on these guys now that Bloomquist in center so much.
Aug 1st, 2008
Alex
Doesn’t VORP adjust for position? What does that imply for “Catchers must be really hard to find?”
One of the basic ideas behind VORP is that every team ought to be able to find field a team with VORPs all greater than 0. If catchers generally are lousy, the VORP baseline is lower.
So, if there are commonly catchers with negative VORPs playing regularly, there are two possibilities.
* Teams are stupidly playing catchers who shouldn’t see the field.
* VORP does not properly capture the value that catchers deliver to a team — VORP and any other system based on the same general inputs or a subset thereof.
I have no doubt that many (most?) in baseball think that the latter implication is true. If they are wrong, that would lead to the former.
Neyer reports that Bill James thinks that Varitek’s value has been at a Hall of Fame level. Now, Mr. James might not be right on this, but how far off could he be? He’s Bill Fricking James.
If Bill James thinks that all this stuff (VORP and the rest) doesn’t capture Varitek’s contributions, then it likely problematic to use it to question other catchers.
Aug 1st, 2008
Creston
“1. A terrible defensive shortstop will absolutely kill you.”
I dunno Joe. Derek Jeter has a career WARP of 77. So he can’t be all that bad?
(Btw, 77? That’s it? Everyone is convinced that Jeter is a first ballot hall of famer if he quit today. He’s got a career WARP of 77? Barry Larkin has a career WARP of 109, and he’s a doubtful Hall of Famer. Man, is New York adding about 100 WARP or what?)
“The guy went .316/.391/.593 with 31 homers back in 1991, when those numbers were beyond monstrous. It would be awfully tough to put up those sorts of numbers and not help the ballclub. ”
Alex Rodriguez proves every day that you can be a monster masher/player and never contribute to a single win on your team, Joe. That’s just how it is. If the Yankees had a “real gamer” at third, they’d be 88-20 now, and have already clinched the AL East!
Hell, if Scott Brosius was still playing, they’d be 108-0, and the rest of baseball would have already conceded the WS title. For the next five years!
Aug 1st, 2008
Creston
“Doesn’t VORP adjust for position?”
No.
“One of the basic ideas behind VORP is that every team ought to be able to find field a team with VORPs all greater than 0.”
That’d be nice, but it’s not some golden rule of sabermetrics or something. There’s only that many good hitting catchers to go around.
“VORP does not properly capture the value that catchers deliver to a team”
Because VORP is an OFFENSE ONLY statistic. It does not take into account defense AT ALL. So yeah, a catcher can have a negative VORP, and still be a contribution to his team. Jose Molina’s VORP is -8. His WARP is 2.0. So despite the fact that he’s worse than the average AAA callup with the bat, his defense has added 2 wins for the Yankees.
“Neyer reports that Bill James thinks that Varitek’s value has been at a Hall of Fame level.”
This is where I disagree with Bill James. Jason Varitek has been an absolutely excellent catcher, but Hall of Fame is insane. There’s never been anything that Varitek has really excelled at. He’s never been the best in offense, never been the best in blocking the plate, never been the best in throwing out runners. His career WARP so far is 42. To illustrate, Mike Piazza’s WARP is 97, Pudge’s WARP is 107 (!). Posada’s WARP is 68. If Varitek is a Hall of Famer, then we better put Pudge ON TOP of the Hall of Fame.
“If Bill James thinks that all this stuff (VORP and the rest) doesn’t capture Varitek’s contributions”
I think Bill James accurately thinks that VORP doesn’t contribute much of a catcher’s value, no. I don’t think that Bill James thinks that “All of this stuff” (ie sabermetrics) doesn’t capture it.
And Jason Varitek is no Hall of Famer.
Aug 1st, 2008
alex
Corey freakin’ Patterson. The man has some skills: he has some pop, can run like the wind, and is a good defensive player. But as an everyday player, he will KILL you.
Aug 1st, 2008
Creston
I like your Gloaden Rule, Joe, but I’m going to take offense at some of the guys you’ve put up.
Gload : Fine. Negative WARP.
Sanchez : Fine. Negative WARP.
Kendall : Ehm no. He has a 3.5 WARP. Which, I might add, is more than TWICE what Varitek is producing this year.
Brown : Has a 1.2 WARP. It’s not great. But not offensively bad. And he’s pretty cheap.
Matthews : Has a .5 WARP. That’s horrible. The guy is making 10 million dollars.
Allow me to put up guys that are making a ton of money, and have truly horrible WARPs. Just off the top of my head (there might be worse offenders out there)
C : Jason Varitek. 11 million dollars. WARP of 1.6
1B : Richie Sexson. 15 million dollars. WARP of 1.1
2B : Jeff Kent. ~10 million dollars. WARP of .9 (!)
SS : Derek Jeter. 21 million (!!!!) dollars. WARP of 1.6
3B : Adrian Beltre. 12.9 million dollars. WARP of 1.8
LF : Juan Pierre. 9 million dollars. WARP of 1.2.
Alternate : Hideki Matsui. 13 million dollars. WARP of 2.2
Alternate : Gary Matthews. WARP of .5. 10 million bucks.
CF : The incomparable Andruw Jones. 18 million. WARP of .1(!!)
RF : Gary Sheffield. 11 million bucks. WARP of .6.
(That’s cheating a little, I know he doesn’t play RF, but I wanted DH for …)
DH : Jose Vidro. He’s the only designated HITTER who actually sucks worse at hitting than a AAA scrub would.
A magnificent -.7 WARP. For the measly sum of 7.5 million smackers!
Rejoice Dodgers and Mariners fans. Your team each has (had) three of these guys on your list! Let’s have three cheers for Ned Coletti and the late Bill Bavasi!
Hip hip! Hurray!
Hip hip! Hurray!
Hip hip! Hurray!
Aug 1st, 2008
Creston
“I recently moved to the Philly area, and watching the game tonight, I find out they are about to put Juan Samuel on their Wall of Fame”
Juan Samuel, really? The guy who played for Philly for 7 years, was slightly above mediocre with the bat and a butcher in the field? They’re going to put him on the wall? Jesus, was Mickey Morandini not available anymore?
Aug 1st, 2008
Creston
“If we can’t pronounce it “ops”, you can’t pronounce this “vorp”, you have to say V-O-R-P!! ”
You would be the kind of guy that pronounces the BBWAA as the buhbuhwaaaaah, right?
Aug 1st, 2008
Art Radley
> Alternate : Hideki Matsui. 13 million dollars. WARP of 2.2
Matsui had a 131 OPS+ when he got hurt. This list should be for guys who have been available to play, but have just stunk (basically everyone else on that list).
Aug 1st, 2008
Creston
“Matsui had a 131 OPS+ when he got hurt. ”
You’re right, I had actually forgotten about him being hurt all season. Once I remembered I had already posted it.
The other two will suffice.
Aug 1st, 2008
Planet B
I noticed the same thing the other day when I looked up Emil’s numbers to see how he had been doing… realizing not much worse than Jose. Jose better put up or shut up at this point.
Also, you’re dead right about Gload. He is NOT an everyday player. Get Shealy up now! Find out if he should be on the team next year instead of giving more meaningless at bats to Gload, who will only hit a weak ground to the right side anyway.
Aug 1st, 2008
JeffSol
The discussion of players with negative OPS+ made me think of Mario Mendoza, of the famed Mendoza line. I was shocked to find that his worst OPS+, other than 18 PA in his final season, was 20, and his worst for a season of 200+ PA was 1979 in seattle, his one year as a regular, at 25 (and btw AVG. of .198, below his famed line). Man, Pena’s pretty bad, to be 30 points of OPS+ worse thanm Mario Mendoza in his worst season….
Aug 1st, 2008
BeesGal
Forget Stratomatic lineups and player cards. What you need is the Roger Maris endorsed ACTION BASEBALL
Aug 2nd, 2008
bongo
The Mariners would love to have Jose Guillen back. Make it happen.
Aug 2nd, 2008
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