B-Log: Anatomy of a Bomb
Posted: July 8th, 2008 | Filed under: Banny Log | 26 Comments »
Start No. 18: Vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Innings: 5
Hits: 8
Earned runs allowed: 6.
Strikeouts: 6
Walks: 1
Homers: 1
Extra base hits: 3.
Decision: Loss (7-8)
Number of pitches: 102
Number of strikes: 62
BABIP: .500 (8 for 16)
Season BABIP: .300
Well, here would be my advice to every general manager in baseball … the next time a large, power hitting, underachieving first baseman from Santo Domingo gets released by a team, grab him. Hold him. Squeeze him. Try a little tenderness. Seriously. Take a look at these two lines:
Line 1: .266/.348/.461, 58 homers in 1477 at-bats.
Line 2: .241/.331/.459, 86 homers in 1685 at-bats.
Nothing special, obviously, though the slugging percentages showed some promise. You already know both guys got released. The first guy became Big Papi. The second guy was traded twice, released twice, granted free agency, and then he became Carlos Pena, who last year had one of the most remarkable seasons in memory … not only because nobody saw it coming but because a .282/.411/.627 line with 46 homers and 103 walks is pretty remarkable no matter who is doing it. His 172 OPS+, believe it or not, was better than ANY David Ortiz season.
Pena has taken a step backward this year, as many expected. His slugging is down 200 points, his walks are down, he’s hitting .232. He still has a 109 OPS+, which is 35 points higher than the Royals every day first baseman, so there is that. And you can see Pena’s getting hot — he homered off of Joakim Soria on Monday. Still, no question, Pena is not having anything like his season a year ago yet. He’s still a dangerous hitter.*
*Speaking of dangerous … how many fan votes do you think Jose Guillen will get in that Final Fan Vote for the All-Star Game? Three? Immediate family? Yep, the Guillen-o-Meter is pointing back down again. A couple of days ago, apparently, Jose Guillen got into a yelling match with Royals pitching coach Bob McClure. Apparently, McClure was as much at fault or more, but I think we could call Guillen “Landsbury” because he always seems to be at the scene of some tragedy.
And yes, after being duly awed and humbled during the remarkable Guillen hot streak, I am reminded again why I didn’t like the deal in the first place. Suddenly he’s six for his last 46, he’s acting hurt and not running out ground balls, he had to be separated from the pitching coach and he said he didn’t give a (bleep) what the fans thought. I find Jose to be a fascinating study — I really don’t think he’s a “bad” guy in the truest sense, but I also think that he’s trying very hard to prove me wrong. I have definitely learned that when he’s hot, he’s scorching, but when he’s cold and feeling mistreated you understand why nine other general managers traded, released or set him free. The Royals have paid for three years of this, and while I have waved the white flag and admitted that I underestimated Guillen’s bat speed and determination to produce, I have never stopped believing it still could be a long, long three years.
So, now we will try to break down the one at-bat Brian Bannister had in the fifth inning Friday against Carlos Pena. You have already seen the numbers for the game — Banny did not pitch well. But it was a weird outing for him. He struck out six in five innings, which is unusual for him. Banny got eight swings and misses, which is a high number for him, and five of those were strikeout pitches. He says he was working on a few things, and some of those things worked — he pitched up more, I suspect, and got most of his swings and misses up in the zone. Obviously, when you give up seven runs (six earned) in five innings, most of his things did not work.
Banny has told me he’s definitely working harder to get some more strikeouts … the numbers are telling him that, long-term, he will really beef up his strikeout to walk ratio in order to be successful. The numbers are telling him he needs to improve certain parts of his game to win in the big leagues. So he’s working on a lot of things … maybe too many things. I always remember what George Brett said about hitting: He will have people try to think of a number between one and 10 and say just they are flashing a DIFFERENT number of fingers. So say 7, but put up three fingers. Say eight and put four fingers. Say 5 and put up one finger. Do it fast and see how long you can keep it up.
Most people can only do it for two or three rounds before they are putting the SAME number of fingers as they are shouting out. George says this just shows the mind cannot really think two different things at once, not if you want to be successful. Banny’s strength is obviously his terrific baseball mind, but I hope he doesn’t have too many things happening in that mind. He’s been a successful pitcher his entire career. He was very good in the minor leagues (with some strikeouts thrown in) and he has pitched very well in the big leagues. I think it’s actually good for him to tinker some because I think that keeps him fresh and on edge, and if he can improve his strikeout numbers that would be helpful. In my mind, he should keep analyzing number, analyzing himself, all those things that make us love him. But all in all, I hope he also just stays confident and remembers that when he’s spotting his pitches he’s still very tough to hit.
Anyway, he went into the fifth inning in this game down 4-0, and he had been hit pretty good. But this has been where Banny, on most days, has tightened up, gutted out a couple of innings and kept the Royals in the game. He struck out Reid Brignac with a 90 mph fastball on the outside corner — I guess this was Reid’s first game in the big leagues, so he will forever be telling family, friends, whoever that Brian Bannister struck him out twice in his first game. Banny got Akinori Iwamura to foul out. Two outs no problem, only then he threw a low curveball to Carl Crawford who grounded it up the middle for a hit. He threw six pitches to B.J. Upton, and Upton did not swing at any of them, earning a walk. So, first and second, two outs, and here’s Carlos Pena.
And here’s what makes Pena tough: He’s not an easy pattern. There are batters who are first ball, fastball hitters. Jose Guillen is one of those. And there are batters who like to get comfortable in the box, they’re not afraid to be behind 0-1, they feel confident hitting behind the count. You can usually slip a fastball by them early in the count — they’ll give that to you the way most basketball teams will give you the dribble to halfcourt.
Then there’s Pena. He gives you a little of both kinds. MOST OF THE TIME, he likes to work into the count. There’s a reason he walked 103 times last year. He will make you come to him, he LOVES hitting cripple pitches — 3-0, 3-1, 2-0, he will make baseballs explode on those counts. He’s the kind of hitter, at his best, is looking to take advantage of the count and beat you over an extended at-bat.
So you could see why Banny would throw his 89-mph fastball over the plate — he’s hoping to get ahead. Pena will usually give you that. But this is what makes him tough; he won’t ALWAYS give you that. Sometimes the guy transforms and comes to the plate ready to crush the first pitch he sees. Last year, Pena put the first pitch in play 67 times — about one out of every 10 times he came to the plate. But man did he kill those — he hit .484 with 11 home runs on those first pitches. He has a sense about these things.
Banny, I suspect, guessed that he would be seeing the passive Carlos Pena. This is what makes baseball so much fun to watc. The more you look at it … every at-bat is such a little game of Battleship. Banny threw his fastball — catcher John Buck wanted it over the outside corner or, perhaps even, just off the plate. Banny got it a little too up a little too in, and Pena uncoiled and crushed the ball about 8,000 feet to straightaway center. There’s the bomb. And Banny’s tough outing turned into a disastrous one.
Whenever someone hits a home run, you will hear announcers beef about pitch location. And no question Banny missed his spot by a few inches. But I like what former Cy Young winner and everyone’s favorite baseball free thinker Mike Marshall says about that: “It’s not location. We can’t put it in a tea cup every time. When you see someone hit a home run, it was probably the wrong pitch to throw. That’s all.”
Agreed. It was the wrong pitch, wrong time. I haven’t asked Banny specifically, but as a fan it seemed to me that Banny had just walked Upton who had not even swung the bat. He naturally expected to be able to throw a first pitch strike to Pena without much resistance. Yep, he guessed wrong. And when you’re struggling, I suspect, you probably always feel like you’re guessing wrong.
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Brian’s fallen on hard times recently. I hope he snaps out of it—for his and the Royals’s sake. Wow. We need him to be a solid #3 or #4. But a good catcher can help too. I’ve seen this all season long with Geovany Soto in Chicago. I hate to say it, but KC could probably do better than Buck. This is nothing against him personally: he seems like a nice guy. – TL
Is there anything better than coming back here after five days of absence, see there are 5 new posts by Joe, happily reading through them all, then as you are just about to click the last of the new ones, see that he posted yet another new one?
No. No there isn’t. Thanks Joe! You make a workday go by SO much faster.
“I guess this was Reid’s first game in the big leagues, so he will forever be telling family, friends, whoever that Brian Bannister struck him out twice in his first game.”
Thanks for that… I had a really good laugh. I kept imagining this “cup ‘o coffee” guy running around telling everybody that he K’d twice against Brian Bannister, and everybody looking at him like he was crazy… “Brian who? Never heard of him!”
LQTM
(laughing quietly to myself — it’s a lot more honest)
I never heard of Mike Marshall until reading this, so naturally I b-ref’ed him. Apparently Mike appeared in 105 games that 1974 year he won the Cy! He went 15-12 with 21 saves– there’s got to be a story there….
Also, I agree with Creston. My Poz reading last night was quite fulfilling.
Re Smperk @ #4:
No disrespect, but man, this is the sort of thing that makes me feel old. I remember Marshall in 1974 clear as day.
Me too, Tracy.
Most remarkable thing about Marshall’s season was 208 innings in relief.
Of course, back then, compared to Wilbur Wood he wasn’t even working.
Jake, I am not sure if you are kidding about Brignac being a “cup ‘o coffee” guy, but he is not perceived that way within the Rays’ organization or for that matter in most sites devoted to prospects. The Rays consider him an up and coming star and Kevin Goldstein at BP has been thumping for him at least 2 years now. He has appeared on probably every top 100 prospects lists for two years at least and usually in the top 20 or nearby. Last year he was identified as the best prospect in the Southern League (AA), or at least the best shortstop there, a list that included Hu of the Dodgers.
Naturally, he may turn out to be a flop, but there is some consensus that he has a legitimate chance to have a successful major league career.
As for the game, I was there and can report that Bannister was getting hit hard in the first 2 or 3 innings. He did seem to settle down and began striking people out, but Pena’s was not the only hard hit ball; many of the non K outs were screaming line drives. It also seemed to me that he generally got a called first pitch strike on most batters.
With regards to the poll :
Baseball tonight once asked the question “Which big game pitcher do you start in game 7?” Couple of years ago it was.
I think it was Phillips and Desatarasddasa that joined him, but I’m not sure. Steve Phillips said, I believe, Sidney Ponson. Oresetests Desatarradada said, I believe, Derek Jeter.
Maybe not quite those two, but something that insane anyways.
Miraculously, Kruk, yes, the Krukster, the Crazy One, said Bob Gibson. I think Phillips was about to say something about Kruk having to pick a real actual pitcher, but then got hit by a tranquilizer dart shot by the producer, so he just slumped in his chair and was quiet for the remaining 30 or so seconds.
It was the only time I’ve ever seen Karl Ravech smile at John Kruk.
Of course there is the other famous Mike Marshall, too. He’s the one I remember as a kid. I liked that Harry Caray once said during a game that Marshall was going back to LA to get some cocaine for his foot. Steve Stone then had to jump in and tell Harry it was novacaine and not cocaine.
SMPERK, do you have ever some reading to do…
Joe saying that Mike Marshall is “everyone’s favorite baseball free thinker,” is an understatement to say the least…to say the VERY least.
http://www.drmikemarshall.com/
Here’s Passan’s Article about him:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-marshall051007&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
And I know that Joe did a post about him not too long back (I think around the time Bryant Gumbell did an expose on Real Sports about him)
Enjoy!!
wow– awesome stuff. Thanks Bellweather.
I was born in 82, not that it’s an excuse, but I hope it shines some light on my Mike Marshall lack of knowledge.
[...] B-Log: Anatomy of a Bomb Start No. 18: Vs. Tampa Bay Rays. Innings: 5. Hits: 8 … A couple of days ago, apparently, Jose Guillen … over the plate — he’s hoping [...]
FYI, John Castino, who played with Mike Marshall on the Twins, once told my SABR group that Marshall was the best he ever saw at cutting the ball– not a la Mariano Rivera, but with a sharpened belt buckle.
Re: Tracy @ #5
Mike Marshall makes you feel old? Here’s what really makes me feel old. I remember having Ray Boone’s and Gus Bell’s baseball cards as a kid. Their grandchildren have played in the majors. Yikes!
[...] B-Log: Anatomy of a Bomb …one of the most remarkable seasons in memory … not only because nobody saw it coming but because a .282/.411/.627 line with 46 homers and… [...]
Chucko,
Yea, but did you have Warren Hacker? Great name for a Geek Squader…
Is anyone else like me?
I know he’s not from Santo Domingo, but everytime I think of large, power hitting, underachieving first baseman, I think this guy:
.267/.332/.402, 12 homers in 465 at-bats
Wonder what Mike Marshall thinks of Tim Lincecum…
Jus’ Banny being Tranny.
SMPERK, to further your Mike Marshall education you are also hereby sentenced to read Ball Four immediately.
Hey, thinking about Mike Marshall brought another question to mind: Whatever happened to the screwball? Is ANYONE in the majors throwing it now? Seems like until the last decade or two there were always a few prominent screwballers around. Tug McGraw. Fernando. John Hiller. Marshall. Mike Cuellar. And of course Hubbell and Spahn made it to the HOF throwing it. Why has it disappeared?
Pedro throws the screw, I think. At least, he did in MLB 2k7, for what that’s worth… I can’t think of another pitcher off the top of my head who does, though.
Whenever someone hits a home run, you will hear announcers beef about pitch location.
I live in Blue Jay country, although I’m not a fan. But the Joe Carter 93 WS winning homer is an interesting case study on this point. As much as people want to pin it all on Mitch Williams, the fact is that Joe Carter hit a great pitch – down and away, out of the strike zone. (of course that doesn’t let the Wild Thing off the hook for blowing his other save and putting runners on in front of Carter…).
” Guillen She Wrote “
And Perry, don’t forget about the original Screwballer, Christy Mathewson. Of course, he called it “The Fallaway.”
Nothing to do with this article; but I saw your thoughts about the “loveable” Cubs. As a white sox fan who grew up on the north side, I have made tons of money over the years betting with idiot cub fans – yes that is redundant, leave them alone, they are fun to pick on…I firmly believe WC Fields said it best; there’s a cub fan born every minute. They will lose for another hundred years!!