I really cannot stand bad comparisons. They drive me nuts in a way that is hard for me to explain. For instance, the other day I noticed that brilliant reader Aaron wrote a comment about Jackie Robinson. It had a few things in there I might have disagreed with — mainly the oft-made point that if not for Jackie, someone else would would have broken the color barrier (sure, but when?) — but all in all I respected the argument, and I’m always for a variety of opinions on this site.

Except for this one: He compared two batting lines — the lines of Don Mattingly and Jackie Robinson — and said they were essentially the same except “Robinson got on base more.” These are the lines — the first is Mattingly’s:

.307/.358/.471, 127 OPS+
.311/.409/.474, 132 OPS+

Now, let me get this right so as not to defame the innocent — Don Mattingly was a terrific baseball player. He is my all-time favorite Yankee, and while being a Clevelander this is a bit like saying that Atilla was my all-time favorite Hun, it still means something to me. I love Mattingly.

But I’m sorry, I just can’t let that go. Those two lines are NOTHING alike. Jackie Robinson didn’t just “get on base more.” His on-base percentage is FIFTY POINTS HIGHER than Don Mattingly’s. There’s nothing remotely close about that. Nothing similar. Nothing. There are two oceans, a continent and a Nebraska Furniture Mart between a .358 on-base percentage and a .409 on-base percentage. If you Google Mapped the distance between a .358 on-base percentage and a .409 on-base percentage, it would tell you, “You can’t get there from here.” Even if you neutralize the stats, Robinson’s OBP is still 43 points higher than Mattingly’s which is a canyon Evel Knievel could not have jumped.

Then, you throw on top of it the fact that Robinson played second base, he slugged with Mattingly, he was by all accounts of the time a base-running sensation, he didn’t get signed until he was 27, and he was playing under the most intense pressures imaginable … well, yeah, it’s fair to say that I’m not a particular fan of that comparison.

Incredibly, though, since seeing that comparison I have run across a baseball comparison that is driving me even more insane. This comes from my friend Rick Hummel at the St. Louis Post Dispatch, who is one of the great people and great ball writers around. Rick wrote a column in which the lead item says that people who think Curt Schilling should go into the Hall of Fame are missing “a potload of more deserving candidates.” I like the word “potload.” His main argument, while I would disagree with it, is certainly a fair one: Schilling’s career record is 216-146, and that would normally not be viewed as Hall-worthy. I disagree with it because I don’t like the use of pitcher’s won-loss records for reasons that are worth about 10 blog posts. But I certainly concede the point … Schilling only won 216 games and if he does not come back he is very much a borderline Hall of Fame candidate.

BUT … then Rick makes the big comparison. If he had written that Schilling’s career (216-146, 3.46 ERA, 127 ERA+) wasn’t much different from obvious non-Hall of Fame Kevin Brown (211-144, 3.28 ERA, 127 ERA+) or even pointed out the eerie similarities between his base numbers and Bob Welch (211-146, 3.47 ERA, though Welch pitched in a much, much better pitching era as his 106 ERA+ indicates), then I would have been on -board. I think Schilling has some serious advantages over those guys, but I would have liked the argument.

But no. Instead, Rick compares to others who won a lot more games — Blyleven, Tommy John, Jim Kaat and so on. OK, those guys pitched a lot longer, OK, still I’m following. But first, before bringing up Bllyelven, Rick dredged up the name. Oh yeah. He compared Schilling to Jack Morris. I swear, I think sometimes that people just bring up Jack Morris in Hall of Fame arguments because they love seeing me lose it.

It’s bad enough that people keep comparing Jack Morris and Bert Blyleven (and some keep voting for Morris and NOT Blyleven), even though Blyleven was better in every possibly way a pitcher can be better. But in many ways this comparison is EVEN WORSE. OK, well, before I get into why, let’s look at some numbers.

Career ERA: Schilling 3.46, Morris 3.90.
Career ERA+: Schilling 127, Morris 105.
Strikeouts: Schilling 3,116, Morris 2,478.
Walks: Schilling 711, Morris 1,390.
WHIP: Schilling 1.137, Morris 1.296.
Winning percentage: Schilling .597, Morris .577.

OK, so all those go to Schilling by wide margins. WIDE margins. I mean, WIDE margins. Morris, however, won 254 games to Schilling’s 216. How about that? Well, even if you take that serious, to me, the argument has no steam. Morris’ career record was 254-186. Schilling’s is, as mentioned, 216-146.

That would mean that for Schilling to MATCH Jack Morris’ career totals, he would have to go 38-40 with a 6.46 ERA. If that’s the difference between Curt and the Hall, maybe he can come back and pitch left-handed.

But that’s not why I hate the comparison — after all, Blyleven’s numbers crush Morris to an even greater extent.* No … what I hate about the argument is this: Morris’ case revolves almost entirely around him being a “clutch pitcher.” Right? I mean, if you don’t buy into all that clutchiness then basically all you’ve got is a rugged pitcher who threw a bunch of innings for good teams, naturally won quite a lot of games and was, all in all, a little better than league average.

*The difference between Blyleven and Morris includes more than 1,200 strikeouts, 32 shutouts and more than 1,100 innings with zero walks and a 1.36 ERA.

But that’s not the Hall of Fame argument. The Hall of Fame argument is that Morris delivered in the big moments, that he threw one of the great games in baseball history (Game 7, 1991, of course) and that game summarized the grit and steel nerve of his career. The Hall of Fame argument is that Morris pitched to the score, lifted his game, came through in the clutch, was best when he needed to be, and true he may not have had a great ERA, and he may not have dominated like other great pitchers, but when the chips were down, and breaks were going against the boys, and backs were against the wall, and there was no tomorrow, well by gosh, that was when Jack Morris stood tall in the saddle.

And this is why this comparison drives me insane. Because it’s bad enough to have to argue with the myths and judgements of Jack Morris’ unshakeable character. But hell, if THAT’S your argument, then holy cow, Curt Schilling is a MUCH better example. He was a MUCH better postseason pitcher. He pitched the bloody sock game. He and Unit beat the mighty Yankees. The numbers aren’t close.

Postseason
Jack Morris: 7-4, 3.80 ERA.
Curt Schilling: 11-2, 2.23 ERA.

World Series
Jack Morris: 4-2, 2.96 ERA.
Curt Schilling: 4-1, 2.08 ERA.

And so, yeah, that bugs me. Now the argument is that he was tougher than Blyleven but at the same time he won more games than Curt Schilling? Ugh. Suddenly, Jack Morris has become a two-front war.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008 at 6:35 am.
Categories: Baseball.

129 Comments, Comment or Ping

  1. John-Paul

    First comment!!

  2. As a Twins fan I have a special place in my heart for Jack Morris (by the way, I keep thinking of Zack Morris from Saved By the Bell. Yes, I’m very young) but I have never considered him a candidate for the Hall of Fame. Part of that might be that I never consider our players for the Hall of Fame because I think of the Twins as a unit, not as individual players. As awesome as Joe Mauer is this year (and I can only tell from the stats since I’m in Chicago) I still think about the team as a whole and not just him. But maybe that’s just because over the years I’ve seen many, many, many Twins (cough, cough, Knoblauch) get traded to different teams and so very much worse. Maybe they were better as rookies, but it’s still all about the team.

  3. Blackadder

    Setting aside PEDs, why is Kevin Brown obviously not a Hall of Famer?

  4. Mike

    You can’t compare Jackie’s OBP to Mattingly’s. The fact is, you’re comparing 132 to 127, and that’s it. That’s pretty close. Jackie had stuff thrown at him and yelled at him; Mattingly had a non-functioning back. Neither of these issues are really under their control, we have no idea how much the impacted their numbers, so I tend to hold it out of the argument.

    As for position, we don’t know how good Jackie was at 2B, but Mattingly was a damn good fielder. 9 Gold Gloves in 10 years he was eligible is pretty good (especially when his offense tailed off so badly at the end; it’s tough to win a GG when you are not very good at the plate). But, given Jackie played 2B, I’d guess he’d make a better 1B than Mattingly. And the steal numbers are pretty good - he looks like he was a pretty efficient basestealer.

    But still… I guess the point is, Jackie’s baseball skill is somewhat overrated.

    Love the line about Schilling pitching left-handed.

  5. Silence Dogood

    My question regarding Blyleven versus Schilling getting into the Hall of fame is about their relationship’s with the media. Please correct me if I am wrong but, wasn’t Blyleven perceived as un-friendly to the media? Schilling is a media darling with all the quotes and demonstrative opinions which, along with his two World Series performances, will get him in the Hall of Fame, in my opinion. His numbers are not Hall of Fame numbers but, his ability to provide great quotes and plenty of great stories will push him over the finish line while the lack of allies in the media will keep Blyleven out.

  6. Bellweather Johnson

    I’m naming my first son “Potload”

  7. Lou

    Joe!

    That is a pretty bogus comparison of Mattingly and Jackie. Take a look at their best 7 full time years:

    Mattingly - .322 / .376 / .520, 144 OPS+
    Jackie R - .322 / .419 / .497, 142 OPS+

    The OPS+ were calculated using a simple weighted average based upon plate appearances.

    I don’t think it fair to count the tail end of Mattingly’s career when he was a shell of his former self. Robinson himself only had 8 seasons when he played in 120 games.

  8. Mike

    While John Paul makes a stirring, evocative, and lucid argument, I have to respond to Joe’s point instead.

    As a Red Sox fan, I may be one of the biggest Curt Schilling supporters out there. He and Foulke basically sacrificed the rest of the careers with the 2004 post-season, finally bringing the championship back to Boston. But Curt is not a hall of famer. Yes, his “clutchiness” is outstanding, and I believe the sock or some momento from that series is already in the hall. But while he is a great pitcher, the hall of fame should be for only those who are truly worthy. Schilling took a backseat to Unit and Pedro, achknowledging that they were the better pitchers. I just don’t see how better than average = hall of fame. The best argument is the postseason record, and it will be up to the voters to see if thats enough.

    I would love it if Curt made it in, but I’m not holding my breath, nor will I think it some great tragedy if he doesn’t make it. And for some reason, I don’t think Curt will either.

  9. Geez, this one isn’t all that hard, even for HOF voters. I mean, if the Steroids Era did ANYTHING, it should have pounded into the voters’ heads the notion that raw numbers cannot be examined without the context in which they were compiled. Many of them are even using that argument already against Mark McGwire, and in favor of guys like Andre Dawson.

    Well, okay, just follow that thought to its logical conclusion, fellas, and use the neutralize stats feature on Baseball-Reference.com before you compare two guys from different eras. All it is is a handy (and free) compilation of just about every traditional baseball stat ever compiled, and since it’s computer-based, it can perform some basic neutralization calculations with no trouble whatsoever. Seems like a tool HOF voters might be interested in using, but what do I know?

    Anyway, using this handy tool that all HOF voters should have set as their Internet Explorer home pages long ago, we find that the neutral stats for Schilling and Morris are thus:

    Schilling: 224-141, .614 Win Pct, 3202 K’s, 3.15 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
    Morris: 229-204, .529 Win Pct., 2579 K’s, 3.82 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

    If that’s not convincing enough, how about this one: Schilling’s teams won 59.2% of his career starts. Morris’ won 57.3%. And, in case you’re all wondering, Schilling compiled this record with WORSE teams. During Schilling’s years, his teams posted a combined .487 winning percentage in all games he didn’t start. For Morris, his teams had a .531 winning percentage in games he didn’t start. In other words, Schilling’s teams were about 22% more likely to win on days he pitched while Morris’ teams were about 8% more likely to win when he took the mound.

    Pretty much a no contest.

  10. Does a “potload” come from Potsdam or is it a word that should have been used frequently in “Dazed and Confused” but wasn’t?

    Here’s a Zack and Jack Morris connection: The high school in Saved by the Bell was named Bayside and their mascot was the Tigers. Even more, their school logo was a rip off of the Detroit Tigers logo. I wonder why MLB and the Tigers didn’t sue over it. You saw it in a lot of episodes. The only difference was that it read Bayside instead of Detroit.

  11. Jeremy G

    If people continue to use Wins as a HOF credential, then they should start using Wins for position players, too.

  12. Justin

    Re: Jackie v. Mattingly…
    I would think that being a lightning rod for bigotry-fueled hatred would be a little more difficult than dealing with a bad back. I’m not talking about a pure on-field performance standpoint - obviously the deterioration of physical skills is detrimental to a ball player in more quantifiable ways, but what Jackie endured should never be dismissed or underestimated. I can honestly say that I wouldn’t be able to exhibit the same class, dignity and patience that Jackie showed in the face of racism.

    And as for the fielding argument, Jackie played a far more difficult position, and the use of Gold Gloves is pretty weak. Palmeiro won a Gold Glove in a year when he played fewer than 30 games at first. Jeter’s won Gold Gloves. It’s pretty clear that the voters, as often as not, look at offense and reputation more than they actually look at the candidates. It seems like the voting’s almost an afterthought, as though someone goes around to the managers and coaches and says “name a player at every position.”

    Regardless of Jackie’s on-field contributions (which were certainly outstanding), what he endured and what he meant to baseball and society on the whole, he should be a no-brainer for the Hall. Would someone else have broken the colour barrier if not for him? Sure. But he was the right person - in terms of character and strength, with the skill to back it all up - at the time.

    As for the Morris situation, I always get annoyed with the argument that he was the quintessential big-game pitcher. I’m a lifelong Blue Jays fan, and I remember we signed him to a big money contract after his big 10-inning game. Throughout the ‘92 season, every solid outing would seemingly be countered with a mediocre one. We fans waited it out, because we were told that he was signed primarily because he was the kind of pitcher who would be decent enough during the regular season but who would shine in the playoffs.

    Then, the team won the series that fall despite Morris’ outings, in which he would routinely take his team out of it early. His performance was kind of similar to C.C. Sabathia’s last year, except that his team won it all.

    When I visited Cooperstown (admittedly several years back), there was an exhibit that discussed Morris’ 10-inning masterpiece with the Twins. That one game shouldn’t also get a plaque in the Hall.

  13. mick

    If there needs to be a real discussion, the guy isn’t a hall of famer. Schilling was awesome. 5 years from now, he’ll remain awesome, except he’ll be seen as awesome outside the scope of the HoF.

    Remember when Edgar Martinez retired and everybody picked him to be a no-doubt HoF’er? What are the odds he gets in now? When he’s considered in ‘09, I bet he doesn’t catch as much praise. Same will go for Schill. Great players of their generation, not every generation.

  14. mick

    re Mattingling HoF: The dude is behind Garret Anderson in Hits, HR, RBI, 2B. Neither are going to the HoF. Maybe the Hall of Pretty Good.

  15. paddy

    But Morris would be the 3rd guy from St. Paul in the HOF (Winfield, Molitor). That would be cool. Has to count for something.

  16. Aaron

    Mike, why do you imply that we can’t compare OBP, and that OPS+ is the end-all-be-all of stats. The fact remains that OBP is more important that Slugging% (and I would say *much* more important, but I guess that is arguable). I like Lou’s argument a bit more, but even then the OBPs are a ways off (more than 40 points).

    I also wonder how true the assumption is that it’s hard to win a GG when you are not very good at the plate. It’d be interesting to look for correlations there.

  17. I rarely mention other posters in comment threads but I must say Blackadder cracked me up. Kevin Brown. Hall of Fame. Just saying those two things one after the other is hilarious.

    And Mike’s summary - “I guess the point is… Jackie’s baseball skill is somewhat overrated”. Now that’s stating an opinion with confidence. An opinion I don’t share BTW. But okay.

    Anyway, humor aside - IMO - (and I find Schilling’s public persona to be very annoying) - Schilling’s amazing post season performances allow him to be considered for the Hall. I haven’t checked the record books but I daresay he has one of the best winning percentages of pitchers in post season history with 12 or more decisions. He pitched in the steroid era and though he might have played second fiddle to Randy and Pedro as a brilliant poster pointed out above - we must remember that Randy and Pedro and both arguably top ten pitchers of ALL TIME. Not a bad second fiddle to play.

  18. The Mattingly/Robinson comparison doesn’t really hold water, although Mattingly did play second base once. It was the continuation of the Pine Tar game. Billy Martin put Guidry in CF and the Hitman at 2B as a form of protest. Fun, huh?

    I think a better career comparison for Mattingly is Kirby Puckett. They played in the same time period. They played the same number of full years and virtually the same number of games (1785 - 1783). Looking down their lines…Runs (1007 - 1071), Hits (2153 - 2176), RBI (1099 - 1085), OBP (.358 - .360), SLG (.471 - .477) and OPS+ (127 - 124). All eerily close. And both players had their careers cut short because of injuries, granted that Puckett’s was more sudden and jarring. The only real differences are Mattingly walked more and struck out less, Kirby stole (a lot) more bases, Kirby played CF to Mattingly’s 1B (they were both multiple Gold Glove winners)…and oh yeah, Puckett was a World Series hero. Twice.

    I don’t really believe that either should be in the Hall, frankly. And I’m a huge Mattingly fan. I just don’t see how Puckett gets in on the first ballot and Mattingly doesn’t even rate consideration. Does defense and the fact that your team made it to the World Series twice make THAT much of a difference?

  19. Aaron M.

    Yes, I knew that OBP gap was huge when I made the original comparison Joe. The other numbers are very close, and the OPS+ is very comparable.

    They both also had shortened careers, as Mattingly’s back forced him to be very mediocre after 1989. This was the original impetus for the comparison and I don’t think I even mentioned it. His line is .323/.385/.521 in the 8 years before his back flared up. Robinson played for 10 with 2 crappy years at the end of his career.

    For what Jackie accomplished, he definitely deserves the honor. I just get the feeling that had Jackie been 2nd into the leagues he would barely be mentioned. Or maybe it would have taken him 26 extra years to get into the HOF like Doby, who had an OPS+ of 136, finally did in 1998, 27 years after he retired. Or if we were voting on this stat line today, somebody would make the asinine remark “this isn’t the hall of very good.”

  20. Finishing the thought… On being second fiddle…

    Post Season Records

    Randy - 7-9 / 3.50 / 121 innings / 106 hits / 132 K’s
    Pedro - 6-2 / 3.40 / 79.1 / 63 / 80k’s
    Curt - 11-2 / 2.23 / 133.1/ 104 / 120k’s.

    Who would you start a game 7?

  21. JEFF

    responding to MIKE’s point about it being more difficult to win GG when you’re not as good at the plate…wouldn’t that mean it’s easier to win GG when you’re outstanding at the plate? perhaps mattingly won a few he didn’t deserve because of the attention brought to him by his offensive stats? playing in new york didnt hurt either, of course.

  22. Craig

    To the poster Silence Dogood, there are as many media members that HATE Curt Schilling as those who love him. His reputation is that of a blowhard who can’t shut his mouth. I think he has more enemies in the media than friends.

    Absolutely, positively LOVE the data that Schilling would have to go 38-40 with a 6.46 ERA to “equal” Jack Morris. Evaluating a pitcher’s won-loss record to judge his overall performance is like looking at Jenna Fischer’s left toe to judge her smokeshow of an overall package.

  23. The Norm Cash Singers

    Hmmm…. I’ve always made the emotional case for Jack Morris to be in the Hall, in part because it isn’t “The Hall of Guys Who Finished in the Top Three in Very Important Statistical Categories for Seven to Ten Years.” Winning does count for something (and I don’t mean the number of victories a pitcher earns - I mean being The Man on a Winner. Or One of A Few Men on a Winner. It’s the only way you can justify about a third of the Yankees being in the Hall.)

    Of course you need high-end numbers to go along with it, but I think these other factors need to be considered. All of that said, you finally broke it down for me - Jack Morris doesn’t belong in the Hall.

  24. McKingford

    Does a “potload” come from Potsdam or is it a word that should have been used frequently in “Dazed and Confused” but wasn’t?

    Potload - noun; definition: The quantity of cannabis that need be consumed to make a nonsensical argument compelling.

  25. Drew

    [I]That is a pretty bogus comparison of Mattingly and Jackie. Take a look at their best 7 full time years:

    Mattingly - .322 / .376 / .520, 144 OPS+
    Jackie R - .322 / .419 / .497, 142 OPS+[/I]

    Jackie’s 7 best full time years started at the age of 28, Mattingly’s started at the age of 23. That’s a HUGE difference there. Give Jackie those 5 years that he couldn’t have because he was black and this argument is laughable. Well it is already laughable but it would be laughabler.

  26. Danny

    “and while being a Clevelander this is a bit like saying that Atilla was my all-time favorite Hun..”

    =)

    Joe, you’ve subtleties that destroy me with laughter sometimes.
    Good post.

  27. Lou

    @ Drew

    Yes, it is a difference, but really, we can only go by what they did on the field. Obviously, taking everything into consideration, Robinson is deserving of HOF. I was originally trying to argue the point that the stats aren’t similar.

    @ BE EARL
    And I COMPLETELY agree on the Puckett comparison.

  28. Bellweather Johnson

    Actually, on second thought, If I name my first son “Potload Johnson,” it would go down next to Reed Rothchild and Kurt Longjohn as the worst porn names ever (and by worst, I mean greatest)

    Geez…maybe I need to stop using “potload” in Mockingford’s definition’s proper context…

  29. Mike

    Justin - that’s ridiculous. I’m 5′7″ on a good day. I assure you, my physical limitations have a far bigger negative impact on my ability to play professional basketball than anything Bill Russell ever had to deal with in Boston. Maybe Mattingly was a wuss, or maybe he had a crippling condition that would have left a lesser man playing shuffleboard by his 32nd birthday. My point is, we don’t know.

    I also tried to explain how Mattingly earned the GG’s DESPITE his offensive performance, winning them in years in which his lines were:

    .288/9/68
    .288/14/86
    .291/17/86
    .304/6/51

    Really, the voters were rewarding offensive prowess?

    I don’t mean to downplay Jackie’s accomplishments or the adversity he overcame. But the belief that what he had to deal with was “harder” than what other players have had to deal with is unfounded, even if it makes us feel progressive and empathetic.

  30. Chris

    Pitchers win-loss records . . . guh. I thought my head was going to explode earlier this year when some idiot on the Eastern Sports Programming Network made the statement that Mussina passed Bob Gibson in wins . . . and never once mentioned the fact that Gibby pitched five times as many complete games as Mussina. Gah! Somebody please stop this W-L abuse!

  31. Amen Mike! If he didn’t like it, let ‘em go pick cotton! Are you with me?

  32. cf

    I just wanted to point out, something about normalized stats. OPS+ and ERA+ aren’t linear stats. Therefore, a 5 point difference in OPS+ (between mattingly and robinson), is relatively significant. A lot greater than a five point difference in raw slugging percentage, for instance. Scrolling through some old BR pages, I saw a 5 point OPS+ difference between Trot Nixon and Varitek on the 2001 red sox. Same team, same parks, same league averages etc. Their lines (obp/slg/ops/ops+)

    Nixon: .376/.505./.881/128
    Varitek: .371/.489/.860/123

    So in this case, 5 points of OPS+ is worth 21 points of OPS. That’s not going to hold constant, as the formula depends on the deviations from the league averages of both slugging and obp, but my point is, that 5 points of OPS+ is not something that can be regarded “pretty close”.

  33. JojoBebop

    To reader Lou

    The fact that a GG caliber 2nd baseman has basically the same OPS+ as a 1st baseman (albeit also GG caliber) is an argument for Jackie being more worthy for the HOF than Mattingly. How many second baseman have a 7 year stretch like that?
    Another thing that a lot of people don’t point out is how big missing those early years are for Jackie. The man didn’t play until he was 28 years old when most players start their decline and while his first two seasons his OPS was 111 and 118, I think that having those early years he might have been at least league average or maybe better, with most likely, better defense.
    As an aside, looking at the numbers he put up between 30-35, Jackie was a beast of an older player.

  34. Mike

    Matt, you’re a better person than me. Pat yourself on the back for being such a progressive fella, and not spending time thinking about things that people say.

    Aaron, you can’t compare raw OBP due to the eras.

  35. McKingford

    Really, the voters were rewarding offensive prowess?

    No, inertia.

    Seriously, once a player starts winning Gold Gloves, he becomes pretty hard to displace. See, for instance, Rafael Palmeiro - whose 28 games at 1b were sufficient to win in 1999. In other words, the voters thought he was so good a fielder in 1999, that he deserved to win a Gold Glove despite playing only 28 games in the field. His team, OTH, thought so little of his fielding that they thought he only merited 28 games at 1B.

    Besides, you don’t think voters looked at Donny Baseball’s declining numbers and thought, hell, he *must* be a good fielder if the Yankees kept throwing him out at 1B despite Pete Rose-like anemia with the bat.

  36. Mike, it has nothing to do with being progressive. It’s not progressive in anyway to be ashamed of bigotry. It’s not even particularly decent.

    “the belief that what he had to deal with was “harder” than what other players have had to deal with is unfounded”

    This is far more progressive than anything I’ve ever written or thought. It’s progressive in the same way people think the holocaust never happened. It’s progressive because you’ve moved on, forgetting the sixties, Martin Luther King, Jr., and all the UNIMAGINABLE VIOLENCE that people had to endure.

    Progressive then were the people that didn’t shoot at Martin Luther King, Jr., 21 years AFTER Jackie Robinson played his first MLB game. Progressive now are the people that pretend it didn’t happen, or trivialize what it must have been like.

  37. Drew

    If you want to talk about Mattingly and Jackie, the question is this simple:

    Where does Jackie Robinson rank among all-time second basemen?

    Where does Don Mattingly rank among all-time first basemen?

    It’s really not “just a position”. The difference between playing an up-the-middle position and a corner position (especially first base, regardless of Mattingly’s prowess) is enormous. Would Ozzie Smith have even made the major leagues if he played first base? You may be able to make a case that he would, but it would have been an awfully close call.

    And just to throw this out there, in the latest Bill James Historical Abstract I have lying around (and he’s spent a lot more time looking at this stuff than I have), he ranks Don Mattingly as the #12 first baseman of all-time. That’s fantastic. He misses the top 10, sure, but #12 is very solid. Jackie comes in at #4 among second basemen.

    Was Mattingly a poor player? No. And that’s why he’s constantly discussed in the “hall of fame snub” conversations. A little more longevity to his career, and he’d have had a shot at the hall. It didn’t help him, either, that in the very same city there was another first baseman who was racking up the gold gloves and riding an OBP around .400, and for a winning team, no less.

    Mattingly was a damn fine first baseman, nobody would say otherwise. But let’s not sell Jackie short, and say he wasn’t really all that special. The guy was without question among the absolute best second basemen the game has seen, and saying he’s only a hall of famer because he broke the color barrier is as embarrassing and ignorant as saying Ripken’s only a hall of famer because of the streak, another often heard and inaccurate argument.

  38. McKingford

    That is a pretty bogus comparison of Mattingly and Jackie. Take a look at their best 7 full time years:

    Yes, how bogus to look at their entire careers, as is usually the case in HOF comps. Instead we should have devined a preselected criteria known only to Lou…I don’t know why we all didn’t think of this.

  39. Justin

    I expect Joe to be cited by Schilling when he writes a self-serving blog post on the Hall of Fame. Something along the lines of….
    “Man, I’ll tell you guys, I really couldn’t care less about the Hall of Fame. Everyone on the street keeps telling me how I am a no doubter, but I have to remind them that that isn’t why I played. I played to win, and oh man did I win when it counts. The guy who I think has the most credibility when it comes to the Hall of Fame, Joe Posnanski, thinks that I was more clutch than Jack Morris, how about that. I could even pitch with a bloody sock. Try that Roger. But back to the point. I have three rings, so what does it matter if I make the Hall of Fame, it doesn’t really matter to me. I played to win, have you seeen my post-season numbers? Yeah, I bet they stack up pretty well to some of the guys in the Hall, but oh well, if I make it I make it, but I’m not obsessing over it. I mean I don’t really care either way because I know that I pitched in a hitters era, but it doesn’t matter to me………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..I pitched my best when it mattered most, but oh well, what is the Hall of Fame without a three time World Series Champ”

  40. Steve

    re: Robinson vs. Mattingly. As I always like to do, how about a quick and dirty WARP3 comparison? Let’s check out Top 5 years, since both players had shortened careers for different reasons.

    Robinson: 13.9 (1951), 13.1 (1949), 12.0 (1952), 9.9 (1950), 9.3 (1948)

    Mattingly: 11.9 (1986), 11.0 (1985), 10.2 (1984), 8.2 (1987), 7.1 (1989)

    Don was a great player, certainly one of the best in the league 1984-1987, but he’s not particularly close to Robinson value-wise.

  41. Lance Richardson

    “That is a pretty bogus comparison of Mattingly and Jackie. Take a look at their best 7 full time years:

    Mattingly - .322 / .376 / .520, 144 OPS+
    Jackie R - .322 / .419 / .497, 142 OPS+”

    The diffence in value between a first baseman with a 144 OPS+ and and second baseman with a 142 OPS+ is substantial. Factor in the fact that Robinson has a reputation (probably fairly deserved) as one of the greatest baserunners in history, and it ain’t too close.

    Am I the only one here that remembers that Robinson played 1B at the beginning of his MLB career? He won the first Rookie of the Year (an award now named for him) in 1947 for a Dodger team that had Stanky at 2B.

  42. Mike

    So sure, maybe they were rewarding him for his hitting at the beginning of his career, and then it was inertia at the end. And if he was still good at the end of his career, the argument would be that he was still being rewarded for being good at hitting. So pretty much, Mattingly can’t get credit for his GGs. But of course, Jackie is considered a “good” 2B, but what if he’s “good” like Jeter is “good”, in that he makes sportscenter a few times a month, but has terrible range? In fact, we have no quantitative evidence that he was any good at 2B. Pretty much we have no argument either way about fielding.

    Beckett and Clemens had blisters, Mattingly had a bad back, Rocco Baldelli has a mitochondrion disease, and Jim Abbott had one hand. Assigning where Jackie’s adversity fit on that list (in terms of impact on baseball ability) is completely and totally subjective.

    And calling me a bigot because I admit to not fully understanding what Jackie went through and how it impacted him, pretty much makes this conversation over, doesn’t it? I don’t think we’re going to have much luck convincing each other of anything.

  43. Orange Julius

    Yeah, but on XM the other day I heard the expert argument that essentially said this: “Jack Morris would pitch great for 6 innings, then with his team safely ahead he would just throw (lob, underhand?) fastballs over the plate thereby explaining his inflated ERA and lack of strikeouts.”

  44. Lou

    Dudes - I don’t think anyone is arguing that Mattingly is A) HOF worthy, or B) he is more HOF worthy than Robinson.

    Joe P said the stats weren’t comparable and he’s wrong. They are comparable, and taken in a vacuum of caring about era only, Mattingly’s are a tad more impressive.

    When you take position and culture into account, the gap for Mattingly becomes insurmountable.

    @McKingford - I didn’t cherry pick. I was trying to exclude Mattingly’s downside because he played in more seasons (14 vs. 10).

  45. I don’t find Jack Morris to be a HoF pitcher, nor do I find Schilling worthy either.

    Don’t get me wrong by being a bitter Yankee fan (for both 01 and 04) who is enamored with your love for Donnie Baseball. But pitching is an entirely different criteria when it comes to the hall. If DIzzy Dean can go in only win 150 games and make it in why not Schilling right? I feel it’s wrong, Dizzy won 30 games in a year. Schilling’s best is 23. Schilling wasn’t even the best pitcher in the game when he was at his pinnacle, which, just to remind everyone, lasted only about 5 (98-02) years.

    For a pitcher to make it to the hall it’s either going to take Johan Santana-like dominance where you’re undoubted as the Cy Young winner for half a decade. How many Cy Young’s does Schill have?

    Now you have all the reason you need to see why he’s not HoF worthy.

  46. Drew

    Oh Mike.
    So what you’re saying is that none of us is qualified to determine which was more difficult - being a black man in the 1940’s vs. having some ouchies on your hand or having one arm or having a bad back or having Rocco Baldelli-ism? Or are you saying, wait, what are you saying?

  47. Drew

    Mike-

    In fact, there is absolutely data that can be used to look at historical fielding information. Fielding Runs Above Average are a pretty reasonable way of looking at things, and they can be adjusted to take ballpark, league, and era into account, so you get a fairly apples-to-apples comparison. Jackie Robinson’s career adjusted FRAA is 109, not all of which was accumulated at second base (note that Jackie played a fair amount of third base and outfield). Mattingly’s FRAA come in at 40, in a substantially longer career. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that a first baseman’s fielding value is intrinsically lower, but given that Mattingly showed several seasons with a negative FRAA, it’s entirely likely that to some degree his fielding prowess was overstated. I remember that in his time, Mattingly was considered a very good fielder, and it’s reasonable to think that the statistics don’t necessarily show everything (though it’s worth noting that his cross-town rival Keith Hernandez had a career FRAA of 88, and only one season (his rookie) with a negative FRAA). But to say that there’s no way of ever knowing if Robinson was a good fielder or not is simply not accurate.

  48. Drew

    2 different Drews there, by the way.

  49. Remember when Abbott threw that no-hitter? I couldn’t believe how many jeers he had to endure from all the two-handed people in the stands! They were all yelling, “Give up a hit, you damn [socially relevant insult]!” I mean, what a freak!

    Robinson was hated, maligned, threatened, battered, assaulted, and more. You’re citing blisters. Seriously, who wasn’t rooting for Jim Abbott?

    Subjective would be technically correct, in that it is my opinion that life-threats and daily assaults (not to mention the scrutiny of the nation, and the hopes of a race) can be more stressful than blisters. But only the truly progressive can misuse “subjective” to such a degree that the incredibly obvious is meaningless because it isn’t factual.

    Welcome to the world of today, where common sense is ignored and all relevant thoughts must be notarized.

  50. Mauichuck

    Gee Mike I was gonna use your argument to show why Bert Blyleven doesn’t belong in the HoF. Is it OK with you if I just substitute Bly for Schill and re-post it?

  51. 2 different Mike’s too…

    and BTW, am I the only one here that thinks comparing someone who played 40 years later stupid??

    The adversity that Robinson went through and still having what we can only take as a borderline HoF career (through comparison with Mattingly being so close, yet far) numbers made him worthy?

  52. @Orange Julius

    I don’t know which expert said that, but his career splits by inning beg to differ. It looks like he was MORE effective in the late innings than he was in the first 6 innings when looking at opponent’s OPS+. I don’t know why Baseball Reference doesn’t have the splits by inning for ERA, but here are the opponent’s OPS+ splits for his career”

    Innings 1-3 104
    Innings 4-6 100
    Innings 7-9 92

  53. Dan Whitney

    The average OPS+ of gold glove winners since 2000 is 116.7, and that’s with Brad Ausmus and Mike Matheny dragging things down. So, yeah, there’s probably some correlation to offense and gold gloves (See Jeter, Derek).

    If you want the spreadsheet of my quick-and-dirty, let me know and I’ll email it to someone who can do something more with these numbers.

  54. Lou

    I think the fact that some fielding models show Mattingly was not such a good first basemen is an indictment of how poor some of the fielding models are - we have a ways to go.

  55. Mike

    Dan, that’s incredibly interesting. You’d expect the opposite, right? (we’ll call it the Adam Everett postulate). If you contribute a ton on the field, you don’t have to be nearly as good with the bat.

    I’m not sure I understand the methodology of FRAA - we may have play-by-play data back into the 50’s, but we certainly don’t have zone data, which is about the best way of figuring out someone’s glove skill these days (and still far from perfect).

  56. Creston

    Did you really just call Rick Hummel a great baseball writer? Rick Hummel of stltoday.com?

    The guy whom, when TLR started batting the pitcher eight, attributed the Cards’ increased scoring of 0.8 runs per game SOLELY to that stupid gimmick? Completely ignoring that Rick Ankiel had a 9 billion OPS at that point, and that dead weights Adam Kennedy and Juan Encarnacion were on the DL, replaced by guys that could actually swing a bat. That Rick Hummel?

    The Rick Hummel who called the Adam Kennedy signing a great, GREAT move? Ignoring the fact that Kennedy had been in a never-ending downward spiral since 2002?

    That’s just off the top of my head. I’ve finally stopped reading Rick Hummel’s ‘columns’ because they’re indicative of the “I can’t be bothered to spend FIVE SECONDS to look something up” mentality that pervades the BBWAA. Rick Hummel leads the charge.

    I’m sorry Joe, but Rick Hummel and the words great ball writer should never, EVER be uttered within one paragraph of each other anymore.

  57. Steve

    Speaking of Jim Abbott, how did he ever get two hits (in 1999 with the Brewers)? Did he just hold the bat with his left hand and swing it one-handed? Did he lay down a bunt?

    He got 3 RBI with only 2 hits, so they both couldn’t have been bunt hits, right?

  58. Creston

    “That would mean that for Schilling to MATCH Jack Morris’ career totals, he would have to go 38-40 with a 6.46 ERA.”

    That is my favorite statistic of the month. Hell, the YEAR. That should be a quote on your blog’s title, or something. It should be a quote on ESPN’s front page.

    It’s just absolutely hilarious. Bravo!

  59. Creston

    “If people continue to use Wins as a HOF credential, then they should start using Wins for position players, too.”

    Oh God, please don’t give them any ideas. I can already see the Kevin Kiernan articles entitled “Nobody Wins as many games as Derek Jeter!”

  60. Creston

    “Winning does count for something (and I don’t mean the number of victories a pitcher earns - I mean being The Man on a Winner. Or One of A Few Men on a Winner. It’s the only way you can justify about a third of the Yankees being in the Hall.)”

    I’m curious about two things.

    1) On which team was Jack Morris actually The Man?

    2) Which 1/3rd of the Yankees are in the Hall of Fame pretty much only because they had great teammates?

  61. Jon

    Haven’t read through the comments so I don’t know if this has been mentioned before.

    But don’t forget that Robinson played first base his first season in the majors and played 197 games at first overall.

    (His BR page also indicates he played 256 games at 3B as well as well as significant time in the outfield)

    Robinson wasn’t much of a one position player so I think we can make the comparison that Mattingly was better defensively. Which could arguably swing back some of the OBP in his direction.

  62. Buchholz Surfer

    You actually could figure Wins for position players with WPA. Award the Win to the hitter on the winning team who had the highest WPA for that game. It’d be interesting to see which hitter led the league in Wins like that.

  63. Eric J

    OK… Mattingly is looked at as a borderline HOF guy; peak people like him all right, career people laugh in his face. He won’t get in. Jackie was (at worst) just as good as a hitter, a better baserunner, and played a far more demanding position (and very well, according to Win Shares). He might not have made the Hall of Fame if he didn’t break the color line, but he’d definitely have deserved to.

    Incidentally, 132 is Joe Morgan’s career OPS+. Yeah, it has early career and decline phase in it. Ryne Sandberg is at 114, Charlie Gehringer 124, Frankie Frisch 111. Jackie was a better hitter than all of those guys, and played the same position. So yeah, he’s a Hall of Famer on baseball playing merit, and easily.

  64. Couldn’t agree more with ya, Matt.

    This comment - “the belief that what he had to deal with was “harder” than what other players have had to deal with is unfounded”

    Knocked me off my chair. Unfounded? UnFOUNDED? The literal definition of unfounded is: ‘Not based on fact or sound evidence; groundless’

    I daresay there’s some pretty sound evidence that what Jackie Robinson had to “deal with” was “harder” than other players and beyond that basic truth - to call the argument in and of itself ‘groundless’ is just well, moronic.

  65. This from literally 1 minute of “research”

    “Then a few hits came, a few stolen bases and some fine fielding plays at first, a position he had never experienced before. The racists sent the hate mail, screamed from the stands and called out obscenities over an anonymous hotel telephone. That’s the way it had always been for blacks, hooded men in the night, rarely one on one in reasoned discussion about who it was that made people white or black after all.

    Things got hot when the Dodgers played in Cincinnati, a southern border town with a history of antagonistic attitudes toward people of color. One death threat letter came into the clubhouse. When Robinson took the field that day his shortstop and captain, the previously mentioned Mr. Reese, sauntered over to him, put his arm over his shoulder and talked for a few seconds the way pals often do. No big deal. No extreme measure. Nobody in the press box screaming “stop the presses.”

    “That meant so much, so much,” Jackie Robinson told me years later. “It was just a kind and incredible gesture.”

    http://www.evesmag.com/robinson.htm

  66. Eric J

    Here’s another way to put it… the neutralized stats of two players, from Baseball Reference:

    Player 1: .296/.399/.466, 2309 H, 261 HR, 1314 BB, 518 2B
    Player 2: .288/.348/.457, 2460 H, 291 HR, 789 BB, 416 2B

    We could mostly agree that the first guy is better, right? I mean, it’s not a blowout, but it’s a good win? The first guy has an (actual) OPS+ of 128, the second guy 114…

    The second guy is Ryne Sandberg. The first guy is John Olerud. Does anyone here think that Sandberg and Olerud are remotely comparable as players? (I think Olerud’s been pretty underrated myself, but still…) Yet Olerud is solidly superior as a hitter.

    So… don’t compare the hitting stats of middle infielders to those of first basemen. You often wind up saying fairly odd things.

  67. Dan Whitney

    Mike, exactly.

    While it’s not totally unbelievable to guess that fantastic athletes would be good both at the plate and in the field - Albert Pujols is widely considered the best defensive first baseman in the game and I can’t find any argument with that - there have got to be some players out there only making a ML roster due to their fielding skills, a la Chris Gomez of the 90s Padres.

    Without really getting into it, was Aaron Rowand really in the top three best defensive outfielders in baseball last year? Or was his GG a result of the broken nose fence run and his career-high flukey 123 OPS+?

  68. Pop Fisher

    Sandberg and Lou Whitaker are pretty comparable though.

  69. Lou

    One thing we all forget - Don Mattingly is in the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

  70. Mikey

    One of the things that makes this blog fun is the high level of civility in the comments. I think we should really try to keep the pejoratives under wraps.

    That said, I entirely agree with Justyo that the belief that Robinson faced uniquely difficult burdens is far from unfounded.

    Mike, your first post suggested that Robinson’s baseball skill has been somewhat overrated, but I think that among posters here it’s been very fairly rated. The consensus of this site has been that he was *among* the best second basemen ever and I don’t think anyone has argued that he was the best.

    Your subsequent posts imply that it isn’t his skill but his COURAGE that has been overrated, and that his circumstances are somehow comparable to players who battled injury. I can see a certain logic to that argument even though I obviously disagree.

    Injuries are part of athletics. Institutionalized bigotry isn’t, or at least shouldn’t be. When you battle injury, you’re fighting an obstacle that’s part and parcel of pursuing athletic achievement. What Robinson faced were external forces that had nothing to do with sports, and had he responded to those forces in the “wrong” way the whole civil rights movement might have played out differently. I think his circumstances are quite literally unique in American sports history.

  71. McKingford

    Sandberg and Lou Whitaker are pretty comparable though.

    Yup.

    A: 276/366/426 116 OPS+
    B: 285/344/452 114 OPS+

    Since Sandberg is player B and Sweet Lou player A, so it’s pretty damn puzzling how Sandberg is elected to the HOF on his 3rd try, while Sweet Lou fell off the ballot in his very first year of eligibility (meaning he got less than 5%!!).

    When you see stuff like this, it’s tough to resist the urge to attribute skin colour to it.

  72. Lou

    @MCKINGFORD

    Actually, it is easy to not attribute skin color. Sandberg had what HOF voters like - hits, doubles, triples, and home runs. I sincerely do not believe it is a color thing.

    Sandberg’s best Total Bases - 344, 331, 312, 307, 301. Whitaker never reached 300 (294 is his highest).

    Of course, the baseball enlightened know there is more to the story than this. But when both were at their best Sandberg had more of EACH of the total base type stats - hits, doubles, triples, home runs, and that seems to be what voters like.

  73. Eric J

    Sandberg’s peak is higher, and their career values are pretty even. Whitaker was just absurdly consistent, plus he was a middle infielder who could hit, but never had a superstar-looking year. He’s the kind of player you’d expect the writers to miss.

  74. James

    Remember when Edgar Martinez retired and everybody picked him to be a no-doubt HoF’er?

    Um, what? The only people who’ve ever called Edgar a “no-doubt HoF-er” are Mariners broadcasters. I mean, I love the guy and I’d vote for him, but I admit there’s a bit of fanboyism that makes me say that. He’s the very definition of borderline, and even among knowledgeable fans, he’s no slam dunk. If the general population of baseball watchers were polled, I doubt he’d stay on the ballot past his first year.

    I just don’t see how Puckett gets in on the first ballot and Mattingly doesn’t even rate consideration. Does defense and the fact that your team made it to the World Series twice make THAT much of a difference?

    Defense does, when you’re comparing a CF to a 1B. A centerfielder, even a mediocre one, who can hit like a HoF (or near HoF) first baseman is a better, more valuable player than that first baseman.

  75. Lou

    @James

    Re: Puckett. maybe, but I don’t see voters using defense at CF vs 1B as a big sticking point. If anything, Mattingly’s 9 would count higher with the standard voter than Puckett’s 6.

    I think it comes down to WS titles and the fact Puckett left on a high note (.314 / .379 / .515) and he still had play left in him. Where Mattingly was struggling to keep a job.

  76. McKingford

    Except everyone said Trammell & Whitaker were linked at the hip, and that they deserve to go to the hall together.

    Tram: 285/352/415 OPS+ 110
    Lou: 276/366/426 OPS+ 116

    Whitaker fell off the ballot on his only appearance. He got less than 5%. Meanwhile, Trammell remains on the ballot, and after 7 years of voting, his totals appear to be rising. I have a hard time thinking that’s only because Tram played short and Lou was at 2nd.

  77. For the record, I called no one a bigot. I was responding to being called “progressive” for showing empathy for someone who has suffered at the hands of bigotry, and I wrote that there is nothing particularly progressive about that, nothing more.

    Thinking more about it, I would think the best examples I can come up with are those players that have dealt with addictions during their careers. Addictions are a funny thing: the liberal among us will want to label it a disease, and forgive the victim of any responsibility. Obviously, there will be many that will disagree.

    Yet I know of no one who is not rooting for Josh Hamilton. Strawberry and Gooden certainly had their supporters. Even Steve Howe seemed to have more people for him than against him, all the way to the end.

    And even if people were to root against these guys, it would be for at least an arguable reason. I just can’t think of a single person that was dealt with any significant abuse for no good reason at all.

  78. Damon Rutherford

    This would be a great FireJoeMorgan.com piece. I love it.

  79. Wade

    I didn’t read all of this. But, Mike Lowell was just thrown out trying to steal 2nd in the top of the 9th against the Rays when trailing by 1 run. Can someone explain this to me?

    Varitek at the plate, Lowell (1 SB on the year) on first and they try to steal to get in scoring position? If you’re going to run, you have to pinch run. If not, hold tight and look for a freaking gapper or bomb. Jesus H. Christ, looks like Francona’s just giving up.

  80. Snuckles

    Jeremy G:
    “If people continue to use Wins as a HOF credential, then they should start using Wins for position players, too.”

    They used to do exactly that for Pete Rose, back before he… well, you know. I must have heard “Rose played in more winning games than any other player” 25 times.

    ———

    JUSTYO:
    “Post Season Records
    Randy - 7-9 / 3.50 / 121 innings / 106 hits / 132 K’s
    Pedro - 6-2 / 3.40 / 79.1 / 63 / 80k’s
    Curt - 11-2 / 2.23 / 133.1/ 104 / 120k’s.
    Who would you start a game 7?”

    That’s easy. John Smoltz.

  81. Anthony

    This comment has basically nothing to do with this post or the millions of comments. It’s more a question as a result of the poll.

    Why does Hank Aaron not get more love from fans?

    He was an incredible hitter. Not just a power hitter. The guy is third on the all-time hits list. His name is up there on almost every statistical measure of hitting.

    He put up with more racial pressure than any player except Jackie Robinson as he took down a beloved record. And unlike Barry… people actually rooted for him.

    I love Ted Williams’ swing, his mystique, even his persona in the media. I get that he sacrificed prime years to the millitary and that he was one of the greatest pure hitters ever. But how does he exceed Hank Aaron by so much in people’s minds?

    I take Hank Aaron immediately after Ruth and Mays. I just wish The Hammer got more pub.

  82. Mike

    Mikey, I’m not saying his courage is undervalued. I just think it’s incorrect to give some players credit for factors out of their control, and not others.

    The fact is, Eddie Gaedel aside, there hasn’t ever been a player in the majors under 5 feet tall, right? In fact, in recent memory, I haven’t seen a single player under 5′6″ or so (and if there was, presumably with the amount of press that Eckstein gets, I’m sure we’d hear of him). So no matter how you look at it, the fact is that someone was able to be a successful ballplayer with Jackie’s adversity (and most of us believe if it wasn’t him, it would be have been someone else, at a later time). But no one, EVER, was able to overcome the adversity of being too small. And there’s only been one Jim Abbott. And no one (yet) has been able to overcome Rocco’s illness.

    My point is, physical limitations can be a greater handicap than mental or emotional limitations. This is difficult to say, it’s not PC, and it apparently leads to people calling me a bigot, but it’s true. And we have absolutely no idea where Mattingly’s back falls on the physical spectrum of handicaps. But what we know perfectly is what Jackie DID, and what Mattingly DID, so in my opinion if we want to make a valid comparison, let’s stop guessing and just stick to the numbers.

  83. “When I visited Cooperstown (admittedly several years back), there was an exhibit that discussed Morris’ 10-inning masterpiece with the Twins. That one game shouldn’t also get a plaque in the Hall.”

    Or maybe it could be exhibited alongside the bloody sock.

    Some mention was made regarding what Bill Russell went through during his early years in Boston. I’m sure it was difficult, but it wasn’t much compared with what Neil Johnston went through dealing with Russell. Now that was tribulation.

  84. Craig

    Wade, Lowell getting thrown out at second base was a hit and run the entire way. Francona does that with Varitek when he’s slumping - in fact, he did it on the pitch before Lowell was gunned down.

  85. Drew

    Mike, I think the whole point is that with Jackie Robinson, numbers don’t tell the whole story. His numbers were great, HOF worthy, but when you take in the whole picture his career is that much more impressive.
    We’re not guessing that Jackie Robinson had a more difficult life in baseball than Don Mattingly, Josh Beckett or Rocco Baldelli. It’s not guesswork. Jackie Robinson DID have it much, much, much more difficult than any of these guys.
    I don’t necessarily think you’re a bigot, just ignorant.

  86. Jeff Wright

    Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post Dispatch couldn’t readily say that there was a shitload of “more deserving candidates”, nor could he say that there was a shitpot full of “more deserving candidates”, but he could combine the two into a potload of “more deserving candidates”. It’s much more fitting for a newspaper.

  87. Mikey, I did not call you a bigot. You wrote “empathy,” and I rephrased it as “ashamed of bigotry.” I meant them to be synonymous, meaning I meant to call you the same thing you called yourself.

    Your argument has evolved to the point that I have nothing to disagree with anymore. I have no idea how Robinson’s situation affected his play. As he was such a great player and handled everything with such dignity, I would guess probably not at all. Feel free to leave out the circumstances when evaluating him against other players.

    I found many of the metaphors and words you used in reaching this point perplexing, but in the end I agree with the point.

    Robinson was #2 on my list. I feel he was likely every bit the player he could be, that he used all of his talent, and in doing so, thus one of maybe the top 30 or so players in the game. I bump him all the way to #2, because he so easily could have been–really should have been–a colossal failure.

  88. Mike

    Drew… the irony here is that you’re calling someone ignorant while professing your opinion to be complete and undebatable fact.

    No one’s numbers tell the whole story. That’s why this blog’s owner gets paid to do what he does, right?

    Compare Eddie Gaedel’s baseball reference page with Jackie Robinson’s, and tell me which one of them had factors out of their control that made it harder for them to succeed in the majors.

  89. These metaphors do not hold water. Gaedel got out of his talent way more than what he was capable of. Gaedel’s only reason for having a baseball-reference page is the reason you claim prevented him from being a major leaguer. You’ve gotten it completely backwards.

  90. Drew

    Mike, I’m sorry you don’t understand that being black in the 1940’s was tougher than having blisters in the 00’s. I guess you can call that an opinion.

    Another opinion of mine is that getting hit in the face by a baseball would hurt more than being hit in the face by a cotton ball.

    You can argue against either one if you want.

    We weren’t talking about Eddie Gaedel, you brought up the hardships faced by Don Mattingly, Rocco Baldelli, Josh Beckett and Jim Abbott and said none of us could say whether what they faced was more or less difficult than what Jackie Robinson faced. If you don’t see the difference I guess there’s nothing more to say.

  91. Mikey

    Players who overcome physical factors outside their control do get credit for overcoming adversity. They don’t generally get as much credit as Robinson does, but I think that’s appropriate.

    Robinson deserves extra credit because his success or failure had implications far beyond his own career. If Jim Abbott had never pitched in the big leagues, or was a complete failure at the major league level, his failure would not have set back the progress of disabled people generally.

    If Abbott had gone into the stands and taken a punch at a heckler, it wouldn’t have been taken as evidence that disabled people are violent and dangerous. If anything, if Abbott had gone after a heckler ten other guys probably would have jumped in to help Abbott beat the sh*t out of the guy.

    I don’t think it diminishes the accomplishment of people who have overcome physical challenges to say that Robinson’s circumstances were profoundly different. Obviously you don’t agree but the results of Joe’s poll suggest that a lot of pretty smart baseball fans see it that way.

  92. pitchers going into the hall is such a great topic…

    i think Schilling should go if ONLY for the post season numbers. those are glittering!

    to say he took a back seat to johnson and pedro, thats like saying george was behind john and paul! just because he was the #2 guy behind a better hall of famer doesn’t mean he isn’t a hall of famer, too!

    does Glavin go?
    Halliday?
    Petit?

  93. Mike

    Matt… we are on such different wavelengths, it’s comical. If a guy got way more than he should have, and “way more” is a grand total of 1 PA, wouldn’t you say that what he dealt with was more detrimental to his career than what Jackie dealt with? I’d love to cite little Joey Smith out in Anywhere, USA, who never made it due to his size, his eyes, his injuries, his alcoholic father, or whatever, but I don’t know any examples of those guys because… they never made it! I won’t take up any more space on this site in this topic because it’s counterproductive and not our site, but it’s been fun chatting with you guys. See you in the comments of another post :-)

  94. OK, bye bye.

    Anyone else want to compare midgets to Jackie Robinson?

    I just…I…WHAT?? Kobe Bryant is as good as Michael Jordan??

    Eddie Gaedel’s career. Eddie Gaedel overcame adversity. More adversity than Jackie Robinson. Eddie Gaedel overcame more in his career than Jackie Robinson.

    That’s what he wrote, right?

    I’m guessing Mikey’s a lawyer. Maybe someday, all judges will ban together, and decide that wherever Mikey studied law is to be discriminated against. And Mikey will start losing cases. All his cases, for no good reason.

    Then I can tell Mikey that he doesn’t have any problems–I couldn’t even get into law school! Imagine trying to win a case that way!

  95. Incoming Message from Dr. Light

    Glavine definitely, Pettitte possibly, and Halladay is way too early to be discussed (he’s only 31, and 120-61), although I’m wondering who the heck Halladay is behind, unless you’re predicting great things for Dustin McGowan or Jesse Litsch.

  96. Drew

    The better comp for Schilling than Jack Morris is probably David Cone. Using the categories Joe picked above:

    Career ERA: Schilling 3.46, Cone 3.46
    Career ERA+: Schilling 127, Cone 120.
    Strikeouts: Schilling 3,116, Cone 2,688 .
    Walks: Schilling 711, Cone 1,137.
    WHIP: Schilling 1.137, Cone 1.256.
    Winning percentage: Schilling .597, Cone .606.

    Schilling beats Cone out in 2 major categories: He pitched 3 more seasons, and he walked a lot fewer hitters. Both of these are certainly important. Note that Cone averaged 208K per 162 games, and Schill averaged 210, so the strikeout differential is almost entirely attributable to the longevity point made above.

    And as far as the postseason goes, if we want to talk about that clutch (read: small sample size) stuff, Cone was 12-3 with a 3.80 ERA in the postseason, including 5-0 with a 2.12 in the world series, compared to Schilling’s 10-2, 2.23 (3-1, 2.06 in the series)

    Schilling’s got the better career than Coney, but I think the difference is relatively small, certainly much smaller than the difference between Schilling and Morris.

    And as was mentioned above, Kevin Brown’s not an awful comp either. Though I think Cone is better.

  97. Big Bob

    Hulk Hogan is the greatest athelete of this or any generation… Joe please write a piece on the Hulkster and Hulkamania…

  98. Creston

    “there have got to be some players out there only making a ML roster due to their fielding skills,”

    Omar Vizquel
    Adam Everett
    Jason Bartlett
    Brad Ausmus
    Nick Punto

    That’s just off the top of my head in ~ 2 seconds. And I have a really hard time imagining that these guys save as many runs with their glove than they give up with their bat.

  99. Creston

    “When you see stuff like this, it’s tough to resist the urge to attribute skin colour to it.”

    I think there are very very very few writers in the BBWAA that are racist, to the extent that it would affect their vote.

    I also think that there are very very few writers in the BBWAA that actually have a brain and the ability to look up a statistic.

    The latter is far more responsible for crazy HoF entries and rejections than the former.

  100. Creston

    “Why does Hank Aaron not get more love from fans?”

    He’s fourth on the list, behind

    1) The best player ever
    2) The best hitter ever
    3) The guy whom everybody who doesn’t think player 1 is the best player ever, say is the best player ever.

    How much more love does he need to get?

    “But how does he (Williams) exceed Hank Aaron by so much in people’s minds?”

    At age 23, Ted Williams posted a 16.4 WARP. When he came back at age 27, he posted a 16.2 WARP. It’s probably fair to say that at age 24, 25 and 26, he’d have posted a 16 WARP. So if he hadn’t missed those three years to the war, he’d have finished with a WARP of 215, which is 10 fewer than Aaron. I don’t think there was much difference between the two players overall. The fact that Williams was the last to bat .400 probably adds quite a few “Mystique” points.
    He also played for the Red Sox. Which probably adds a ton of votes, since everyone currently seems to just luurrve the Red Sox.

    “I take Hank Aaron immediately after Ruth and Mays”

    So your “lack of love” basically boils down to you voting Hank Aaron third, and him being fourth on the poll? Isn’t that a bit of a silly argument?

  101. Eric J

    Jon… a little late here, and the discussion has apparently moved on to who did or didn’t call someone a bigot. But Jackie’s positional versatility was a huge asset to the Dodgers, not something that should bring him closer to Mattingly. Jackie played first when he came up, because second was taken; he moved to second a couple years later, making room for Gil Hodges, then moved to left and third to make room for Jim Gilliam. Because he could play so many positions well, the Dodgers were able to work less-versatile but still-talented players into the lineup alongside him. Mattingly (and most people) don’t offer their teams that option.

    Another historical example is Pete Rose moving to third, allowing George Foster and Ken Griffey Sr. to both play regularly over an inferior player (Denis Menke? Someone like that). But that gets into Joe’s territory…

  102. Richard Aronson

    Jack Morris was “the man” in Detroit, he led the Jays in wins, starts, and innings (although Guzman was clearly the best starter that year with a lot fewer innings pitched) and he led the Twins in starts and innings. Being the inning eater for a WS champ does tend to help ones reputation, and none of the better starting pitchers on any of those three teams has any HOF credentials at all. Morris was a major part (two or three World Series starts) for three different teams that won the World Series, and that’s fairly rare. In no way am I convinced that he belongs in the HOF, but he’s not extremely far from it. However, I’d rank him behind all the other names listed recently, especially because Morris unfairly gets called a great clutch pitcher. Since so much of Morris’s HOF credibility is post season excellence, here are the numbers:

    Morris (Games Starts ERA WL Saves CG IP H W K WHIP)
    13 13 3.80 7-4 0 5 92.1 83 32 64 1.25

    Blyleven
    8 6 2.47 5-1 0 1 47.1 43 8 36 1.08

    Schilling
    19 19 2.23 11-2 0 4 133.1 104 25 120 0.97

    Smoltz
    40 27 2.65 15-4 4 2 207 168 67 194 1.14

    John
    14 13 2.65 6-3 0 3 88.1 82 24 48 1.20

    Based on those numbers, including W/L%, ERA, and WHIP, Schilling is the pitcher I’d pick to win game seven if I’d bet my house on the outcome. Blyleven would be second, Smoltz third (all three would be excellent) and Morris would be the guy I’d hope the other team would start. It’s also worth noting that Blyleven’s team won every post season series in which he got a start, Schilling’s team’s records were also an excellent 10-2, and Smoltz’s teams were only 12-12 in postseason series (Morris’s teams were 6-1, but Morris himself just isn’t that good, either in record, ERA, or WHIP). John is a different type of pitcher (see: Bill James and the Tommy John type of pitcher) but his ERA says that he’s not far off from the others even if his W/L and WHIP aren’t quite as good as the big three. Plus Schilling, Blyleven, Smoltz, and John all had substantially better post season ERAs than career ERAs (improving by 1.23, 0.84, 0.81, and 0.69 ERA in the post season; Morris’s post season ERA bettered his career ERA by only 0.28) even though one would expect playoff teams to have better offenses.

    So *if* post season quality is one of the tie breakers for HOF qualifications (as opposed to post season quantity) then Schilling definitely gets that nod; he is arguably the best post season pitcher of all time. Blyleven, Smoltz, and John all cranked their game up a notch in the playoffs. Morris pitched about the same as always, and if you remove that one shutout which made his undeserved reputation, pitched worse. If you removed their best playoff game from the other four, they still pitched better in the postseason than in the regular season. Morris’s postseason ERA is more than a run higher than anybody else’s on this list, his WHIP is the worst, his W/L% is the worst; how much more evidence do you need? I cannot give Morris any post season credibility for his HOF membership, and anyone who does chooses to forget all those mediocre games Morris pitched and just remember the only really good one.

    Finally, some flame retardant. John Smoltz was a *superb* post season pitcher. But his W/L numbers have to be helped somewhat by being the #2 or even #3 starter for the Braves most of the time, and with that advantage he was still behind both Blyleven and Schilling in WL%, ERA, and WHIP. It’s fairly unusual to have so many stats all line up the same way when doing pitcher comparisons, but unless you are going to hold it against Blyleven for being on bad teams most of his career you have to discount the counting numbers. Both Blyleven and especially Tommy John started their careers well in advance of the Messersmith free agency decision. Smoltz didn’t leave the Braves (why would he?) but had that option almost all his career, and Schilling too often had choices about which good team to join. If you think Smoltz is on the fence for the HOF, then I would say that his postseason production pushes him over, and in a good way. I just think Schilling and Blyleven get pushed a little farther.

  103. Reuben

    I read something here a few days ago that crystallized my reservations about this whole numbers/HOF approach. The words used were “larger than life” and “transcendant”.

    The HOF should be reserved for the Legends of the Game. And you are legendary when you are “larger than life”, when you are “transcendant.” It’s the Hall of FAME, not the Hall of Numbers. If Reggie Jackson gets 50 fewer HRs, doesn’t he still get in? He was Reggie Freakin’ Jackson. He was a legend, people told stories about the things he did. he got a candy bar named after him (and it may have been a AAA Baby Ruth, but I liked ‘em). For me, it was seeing Frank Robinson hit grand slams in his first two ABs (OK, it WAS vs. the Senators) and doubling in his third at bat for 10 RBI in a game. Or seeing him dive into the RF stands in Yankee Stadium with two out and the winning run at the plate to save the game for the Orioles in 1966 (all you could see was his legs, then he raised his glove with the ball in it).

    By that standard, the Reggies, the WIllies, the Mickeys, the Franks and the Brookses, the Cals, they go in. Yeah, there’s a certain level you needed to play at for a certain period. But just like it took a Joe DiMaggio to hit in 56 straight games, if you were larger than life, if you transcended the game, you’ve already got that.

    So for me, Schilling is an HOFer, and I don’t think it’s close. He was among the best, and he did legendary stuff like the bloody sock game and beating the Yankees in AZ. He led the Sawx to their first WC since before the Russian Revolution.

    And I remember Jack Morris’ 91 WS G7 vs ATL. He was AWESOME. I’m not a fan, but that game made me an admirer. He would not lose that game, period. If I had a vote, he’d get it.*

    Blyleven would not. No moments I’d tell my imaginary grandkids about. If he was HOF quality, he would have. Same for Mattingly. Jackie integrated baseball. He took all kinds of abuse, and he had the discipline to restrain his pugnacious, combative character. Yeah, someone had to do it. That someone goes in. he’s the someone.

    *Another example, for me, is when Randy Johnson came in in relief vs. the Yankees in 1994. “Entering a 4-4 game in the ninth inning, Johnson pitched the 9th, 10th, and 11th innings. He allowed 1 run, struck out 6, and held on for the series-ending win in Seattle’s dramatic comeback.” Yeah, Unit won all kinds of wards and led the league in various categories; THAT was a performance people will talk about forever.

  104. brianS

    to consider the absurdity of the Jackie Robinson/Don Mattingly comparison in questioning why Mattingly is not in the HOF, why don’t we compare Donnie Baseball to Kent Hrbek, an ACTUAL peer, positionally and era-wise.

    .282/367/481/128 Hrby
    .307/358/471/127 Mattingly

    and, uh, Hrbek starred on two WS winners….

    I’m a Twins fan, but even I don’t hear anyone clamoring for Hrbek’s inclusion in the Hall. Let the Mattingly thing go, people.

  105. Anthony

    Creston-

    Thank you for pointing that out. I should have made clear that they (the three) are only inches apart in my mind. It’s not an easy 1-2-3.

    I was looking more at percentages on the poll. Ted Williams was on 60% of “ballots” while Aaron was only on 45%. Again, I never pointed that out, but that was what I was basing my comment on. It’s just a general observation on what seems to be the mindset of many people when they talk ab