Streak is Dead, Long Live the Streak

Posted: June 14th, 2008 | Filed under: Baseball | 14 Comments »

Result: Lost to Arizona 1-0 in 10 innings.
Royals Walks: 4 … Breaks the streak of 20 consecutive games with 3 or fewer walks.
Diamondback Walks: 8.
New streak: 21 consecutive games since Royals drew more walks than opponent.
21-Game New Streak total: Opponents 88 walks, Royals 24 walks.
Record during New Streak: 5-16.

First, the good news, the Royals did finally break out of that three-walk-or-fewer streak that was so annoying and self-defeating that you kind of had to wonder what the hell was going on. The Royals had the fortune to face Doug Davis, who in his career has averaged four walks per nine innings, and he basically DRAGGED the Royals to their four walks. He walked Mark Grudzielanek twice, which has never been an especially easy thing to do, he fell behind 3-0 and issued Mike Aviles the first unintentional walk of his career (Aviles started to swing at a pitch over his head, but held up), he fell behind 3-0 and issued a rare walk to Miguel Olivo. So that streak is broken, and good riddance.

Unfortunately, the Royals didn’t actually SCORE ANY RUNS off Davis, and a more significant streak keeps on going … yes, the Royals did walk four times on Friday, but their pitchers surrendered eight walks. And that makes 21 consecutive games since the Royals drew more walks than their opponent in a game. I have no way of knowing how that streak stands historically but I can’t imagine it’s good.

And there’s something else: In Friday’s post, I suggested that you can’t REALLY blame Royals manager Trey Hillman for this team’s extreme lack of patience at the plate. Sure, he gets some responsibility because he’s the one making out the lineup card, and his OBPreaching obviously isn’t getting through. But, in the big picture, I think the ability to draw walks at the Major League Level is more of a tool than a skill — more like power than it is like, say, the good sense to hit the cutoff man. You wouldn’t blame the manager because his team can’t hit home runs or beat out infield hits. This team was built to hack — the veteran players, Jose Guillen (1 walk per 21 PAs), Miguel Olivo (1 walk per 27 PAs — yeah, 1 in 27), and Mark Grudzielanek (1 walk per 21 PAs) were all wild swingers long before Trey Hillman came around.

HOWEVER, it occurred to me during Friday’s agonizing game that there are some things that a manager can do to send a clear message about having a good hitting approach. Yes, the Royals did walk four times on Friday, but it’s funny, they might have had their worst plate discipline day of the whole streak. Look:

IN THE 1st INNING, the Royals had runners on 1st and 3rd, one out, when Guillen struck out on a pitch in the dirt. Miguel Olivo followed with a strikeout of his own, and I’m not sure that ANY of the pitches he swung at were strikes. Inning over.

IN THE 2nd INNING, the Royals had runners on 1st and 2nd, one out, and Hillman allowed Zack Greinke to swing away. To be fair, Zack seems to be a good hitter for a pitcher. He has a home run and a double in his limited opportunities, and he would have been drafted out of high school as a shortstop. To be unfair — it was a terrible, silly, self-defeating move. I never like giving up outs. But the Royals are the worst offensive team around, and you CANNOT let your pitcher swing at a bad pitch and ground into an easy double play. You just cannot let that happen. Only, of course, that’s what happened.

IN THE 4th INNING, Olivo drew that rare walk to lead off the inning, then Mark Teahen struck out on reasonable pitches, Mike Aviles struck out on a pitch that was way up and in, and Joey Gathright flew out on an outside pitch that was, no kidding, a foot off the plate.

IN THE 7th INNING: The Royals had runners on 1st and 2nd, two outs, and they desperately needed a good at-bat from Alex Gordon. He swung at the first pitch and popped out in the infield to end the threat. So I would say that was not necessarily a good at-bat. We’ll get back to Gordon in a minute — he’s the point of all this — but for now let me say that from what I could tell this was not exactly an example of swinging at a bad pitch. No, this was more an example of swinging at a pitch he could not hit. The ball was just above the knees, outside corner or just off the plate, borderline, there’s just nothing that Alex Gordon can do with that pitch. Plate discipline isn’t just not swinging at balls out of the strike zone. It’s not swinging at low-and-away pitches you can’t hit — especially when it’s the first pitch of the at-bat.*

*That’s what I mean about patience being a tool … I believe there’s a natural ability hitters have for understanding the strike zone, and recognizing the pitch as it approaches, and knowing which pitches can be driven and which pitches are almost automatic outs. A hitter can (and often does) improve this tool, just as a player develops power as he gets older. But to some degree, you either have this tool or you don’t.

And finally, the 10th inning, man on first, one out, Gordon back at the plate. This time he’s facing Billy Buckner, a 24-year-old pitcher just up from the minors, a former Royals pitcher, a guy making his first appearance for the Diamondbacks. And Buckner’s wild, all over the plate, he gets to a 3-0 count. And this is where I fully put the weight of the moment on Trey Hillman. To me, there is no way that Gordon gets the green light here. None. Sure, I do believe a manager must give his players some freedom, but the way this team has hacked, the way this team has bailed out pitchers for three weeks,* and the way Alex Gordon consistently has shown (including barely three innings ago) that he does not have any real grasp for the strike zone, there is no chance I let Gordon swing the bat there.

*The Royals, as pointed out by a couple of brilliant readers, are hitting .259 and slugging .407 with a 3-1 count. That’s almost impossible to believe. The rest of the American League is hitting .349 with a .613 slugging percentage on a 3-1 count. If you can’t hit with a 3-1 count, well, good night and good luck. The Royals are also hitting about 50 points less and slugging about 150 points less than league average on 2-0 counts. It isn’t just that they don’t get into favorable counts … they don’t know what to do once they get there.

But more than all that, I don’t let Gordon swing there because it goes beyond the circumstances of the moment. I’m thinking now that there ARE some things a manager can do to improve his team’s plate discipline, and I mean subtle things that don’t involve benching free-swingers or fining people for unloading on the first pitch. For instance, you MAKE THEM take the 3-0 pitch. They’re not doing anything with it anyway. And that’s certainly within the powers of a big league manager.

Plus, it might remind these players who they are … let’s be blunt, Alex Gordon has not earned the right to swing 3-0. He’s a second year player with talent and a gigantic hole in his swing. He’s hitting third in the lineup because the Royals don’t have another viable option. He’s prone to long, nasty slumps because he strikes out a lot and doesn’t walk much at all. I think there are times he acts aloof, like he’s already arrived, and that’s just not reality. He has not earned anything yet. I realize this part of the game has changed quite a bit the last few years, but in a general way stars are given the 3-0 green light. I get the sense a lot of people think Alex Gordon is a star. I don’t want to judge but it’s possible that Alex even might think that himself. Well, to clarify: He’s not.

Result: Gordon swung at what was probably ball four, a high, outside fastball he could not have done anything with, and he bounced into the 1-6 double play with the Royals best hitter on deck. And the Royals lost the game in the bottom of the inning. It’s true that there’s some second-guessing involved here … if Gordon had hit a double into the gap, I probably would not have written this post. But, seriously, what were the odds of that happening?

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