A Magic Trick: Go Negative
Posted: June 5th, 2008 | Filed under: Baseball, Media, Pop Culture | 32 Comments »
Years ago, a friend of mine taught me this great and very involved card trick. The trick has three acts, there’s a mathematical quirk in the middle, a little bit of card physics and finally, my favorite part, a little misdirection. I can’t go into specifics because my father taught me years ago that a magician, even a bad one, never reveals secrets, plus I may one day see you and want to show you this trick. It’s really all I have. But I can tell you that the best part of magic — at least the little magic I know — is when you can use a person’s own preconceived notions to pull off a trick.
For instance: Select a number from 1 to 11. OK? Got it in your head. OK think about it hard, think about it, think about it, OK something’s coming to me now, something is coming — hey, do you still have the number in your head? — OK, yes, I can see it now, I can feel it now, think about that number, yes, it’s coming to me … OK, your number is seven.* Isn’t that amazing? You want to know how I did that, don’t you? Well, it’s an illusion! It’s magic!
*If your number is not seven, this trick may not seem quite so amazing. Was it a three? Nine?
OK, sorry, I went off the deep end there for a minute. It’s Las Vegas. There’s magic everywhere here. David Copperfield. Lance Burton. Penn & Teller. Pete Rose. It’s amazing. Bette Midler gets people to spend big money to see her perform here. I mean, seriously, that’s magical. There are like 284 different Cirque du Soleil shows here — and it only takes one to freak me out. It must be magic.
There’s so much magic around, so many illusions, so much misdirection … it can make you wonder. Why do slots make so much money? I remember once passing a billboard that boasted a certain casino’s slots had “97% payoff.†That sounded good to me. Then my friend Ed, who is much smarter about these things, said: “Great, why don’t you just go into the casino and give them 3% of your money.†And that’s right. The billboard was BRAGGING about taking less of your money than other casinos. But there are no secrets. Everybody understands on an intellectual level that slot machines don’t pay. They take. They take a lot. They take so much that owners can build more slot machines, which take even more, so that owners can build more slot machines and indoor Gondolas, and they take even more …
It’s like the taxi driver said to me the very first time I came to Las Vegas: “No matter what you’re doing in this town, be sure to take a look around and remember that losers built everything you see.â€
We all know that … so why do people keep on playing the slots? Stupidity? Yes. The edgy hope of winning? Yes. Mostly, I think, it’s misdirection … this slot machine has a Wheel of Fortune wheel on top, and this slot machine just paid off 1,000 quarters, and this slot machine has seven paylines, and isn’t this chair comfortable, and don’t you want a free drink, and hey here’s as small payoff, and listen to all those bells, and yes, you won a little, that was easy wasn’t it? That was thrilling, wasn’t it? Put another $20 in. Sure. Another $50. Sure. You’ll get lucky for sure this time.
Misdirection. It’s very useful. On Wednesday, for instance, I was watching the Royals and White Sox play. And at one point, I announced, “Oh oh, watch this pitch.†And on the very next pitch — the next pitch, I tell ya — Jim Thome hit a 884,372 foot home run to center field. I mean it was a MAMMOTH blast, and everybody in the room looked at me with wonder. Unfortunately for me the only people in the room were my two little daughters, and they looked at me in wonder because they wanted some of my ice cream … but if they had been older and cared about baseball it would have been really impressive.
How did I do it? Easy. Thome is still a masher when he connects. Young Luke Hochevar, who will occasionally leave his pitches up, was pitching. And there was a 2-0 count. Anyone can predict that upcoming calamity*. I always tell people — if you want to look smart at a baseball game, if you want to impress your friends, just say “Oh oh, watch this pitch,†anytime a good hitter has a 2-0 or 3-1 count. There’s a good chance that the batter will crush the ball. Always look for those 2-0 and 3-1 pitches.
But here’s the best part — the misdirection part — I never said what I thought would happen. I just said, “Oh oh, watch this pitch.†Sure, that SEEMS to mean that I think Thome’s about to hit a blast. But it does not have to mean that at all. if Thome pops it up or grounds out there, hey, I can just say, “Yep, I thought he’d be overanxious.†If Thome takes the pitch for a ball, I can say, “Yep, Luke doesn’t want to mess with him.†It’s a can’t miss trick.
*Just as anyone could have predicted that Paul Konerko was going to hit a home run off of Jimmy Gobble to end that game — Konerko ALWAYS homers off of Gobble. I think he’s now 5-for-6 with four homers against Gobble.
There’s another bit of misdirection that you can use in sports, one that works very well for a lot of people around the country. You can go negative. This is something I’ve learned over the years of trying to be a fairly positive sportswriter — the negative guys are right a whole lot more often. Well, it just goes to figure. If a new coach or manager gets hired for some loser organization, you can say: “Oh boy, that’s a terrible hire, that won’t work.†Most of the time, you will be right, it won’t work. If a team is picked by lots of people to, say, win the World Series or Super Bowl, you can say: “Oh, I’ll bet they won’t win the World Series or Super Bowl.†Most of the time you will be right — teams predicted to win it all rarely do. You can say, “I’ll bet Chipper doesn’t hit .400,†or “I’ll bet the Patriots don’t go undefeated†or “I’ll bet Tiger doesn’t win the Grand Slam†and you’re going to be right almost every time … it’s misdirection. The odds are very, very much in your favor, even though it may not look that way.
I was thinking about this today as slot machine bells echoed in my ears and people were emailing me to ask what I think about the Royals draft pick selection of Eric Hosmer. Now, I can be very honest with you here because we’re all friends … I don’t know squat about Eric Hosmer. I just went to our Web site to make sure his first name REALLY IS Eric (it is). I’m supposed to be working on this book (did I mention …) and I’ve tried hard to not keep up with stuff like the amateur draft. OK, yes, I do know a little more than squat about Hosmer … I guess I do know he’s a high school first baseman from Florida who has been compared a lot to Casey Kotchman* but many scouts expect him to hit with more power at a younger age.
*I actually went to see Casey Kotchman in high school with the ruling Royals brain trust … I guess that was seven years ago. He hit a foul ball that went over a light tower, which seemed pretty impressive to me. The Royals took Colt Griffin instead because he threw 100 mph once. This probably tells you just about everything you need to know about why the Royals have lost a billion games this decade.
Point is, I have absolutely no idea how good Eric Hosmer will be. No idea. Between 1989 and 1998, men who make it their business to know picked the following players with the third pick in the amateur draft:
1989: Roger Salkeld
1990: Mike Lieberthal
1991: Dave McCarty
1992: B.J. Wallace.
1993: Brian Anderson (the funny one)
1994: Dustin Hermanson
1995: Jose Cruz
1996: Braden Looper
1997: Troy Glaus
1998: Corey Patterson.
So there you have it. You might get Troy Glaus. You might get B.J. Wallace. You might get something in between (or you might get Corey Patterson, who is sort of on his own track). I’ve talked to scouts … they generally seem to think highly of Hosmer, though there are some doubts. There have to be some doubts. He’s only 18.
So I don’t know what will happen. But here’s the thing: My heart tells me that Hosmer will be great. Scouts like him. He’s got a great swing, a great body, great high school numbers, all that. He’s an advanced htter … those guys have the best shot of making it through the minors quickly. My heart says: Hosmer was a great pick. I tend to write with my heart, which is one reason why I’m so often wrong.
If I want to look smart, though, if I want to play the magic game, I would tell you right now that Hosmer will be a no-doubt bust. And I will almost certainly be right. It’s misdirection again. Players are almost NEVER as good as you hope on the day you draft them. Some become all-out, never-make-it-to-the-big-league busts. Some make it to the big leagues but never play regularly. Some make it to the big leagues and do play regularly but they don’t become stars. Some will make an occasional All-Star team and have solid careers. And the smallest percentage become stars.
And here’s the thing: Right now, at this very moment, on draft day, the only satisfying conclusion to Eric Hosmer’s career would be for him to become a 40-homer star for the Kansas City Royals. And what are the odds that happens? Not good. That’s no knock on Hosmer … that’s just the reality of Major League Baseball.
And this is the enduring challenge of being a fan and an optimist. It’s more fun to be positive. But the negative happens a lot more often. The slot machines just don’t pay off most of the time.
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Joe,
I suspect that a lot of us flock to you *because* you don’t go negative all the time. It’s kind of like finding an oasis of sorts, especially when we follow a team where negativity is so…consuming.
Also, if you make it to Omaha I expect to see that card trick.
Too Close For Comfort? “That’s Entertainment!”, He said, she said. Damn Yankees, No Country for Old Men. “I Spit on Your Grave!”, the Man Who Shot Liberty Valance, Running on Empty, Falling Down, Sleeping with the Enemy..The Lords of Discipline.
Brilliant post Joe
And I agree with Minda. One of the reasons that we like your blog is because you’ll look at the numbers, think about things objectively but still be a fan at heart and try to see the upside. It must be the only way to survive while watching the Royals.
That was awesome, Joe.
And I want to know that card trick.
While I am enthused about Hosmer, the certain knowledge that there’s about an 80% chance he’ll never be more than serviceable lurks like a mugger in the dark alleyway of my brain.
However, the fact that Dayton somehow managed to acquire the rights to no fewer than four players who some draft expert or another listed as potential first-round talent? THAT, I’m unequivocally excited about. We almost certainly drafted a future All-Star today. Only question is, who?
A good perspective on things, especially that quote from the Vegas cab driver. Here’s another one: “Ordinary gamblers think of the possibilities. Smart gamblers think of the probabilities.”
I believe Trey was the only one who didn’t know that Konerko was going to homer off of Gobble and unfortunately his was the only opinion that mattered.
On the other hand some times a guy you drafted in the thirteenth round turns into a future Hall of Fame stud . Like the aforementioned Jim Thome.
That’s what I love about the Major League baseball draft.
Just something I noticed about your soccer team picks, where’s Chelsea? I’m surprised they got no mention at all. Didn’t anyone recommend them, not that I am, but they were the second best team in Europe this year.
This definitely is Royals group therapy. I’m still stinging from the loss last night, which gave the behated White Sox and their nasty fans the sweep.
I began wondering if they’ll ever pull it together again…if all this talk about Moore sending the organization in the right direction is just another load of crap. For some odd reason, though, I feel much better about the future after reading this.
Either you’re a baseball godsend or the devil himself for making me hope a bit longer…
How’s this for going negative on the Royal’s first day of the draft. They took 4 high school pitchers, 2 high school hitters (Hosmer and Alex Lianos) and 1 college hitter.
Talk about NOT playing the odds:
From my study of 1st round picks from 1997 to 2006.
Of the 298(2 were drafted in the first round twice) players drafted:
101 Players were College pitchers.
77 Players were High School position players.
63Players were College position players.
56 Players were High School pitchers.
Of those 298 players 22.8% (68 of 298) were categorized as Star or Impact.
34.9% (22 of 63) of College position players were listed as Stars or Impact.
20.7% (16 of 77) of High School position players were listed as Stars or Impact.
19.6% (11 of 56) of High School pitchers were listed as Stars or Impact.
18.8% (19 of 101) of College pitchers were listed as Stars or Impact.
On the negative side of things:
41.1% (23 of 63) of High School pitchers drafted had a rating of No Value(drafted 2003 earlier and have not appeared in the majors).
31.1%(24 of 87) of High School hitters had a rating of No Value (Chris Lubanski made this list).
20.8% (21 of 110) of College pitchers had a rating of No Value.
15.9%(10 of 63) of College Hitters had a rating of No Value.
So basically there is a 40% chance that the “1st round projected” pitchers we got will never make it to the majors and only 19.6 chance they will become star or impact players. But hey, if they do make it up in 2012 or 2013, they’ll be just in time to see Alex Gordon and Billy Butler leave for free agency.
The Royals need talent in their organization from top to bottom, you can’t, can’t, can’t just keep rolling the dice against the odds hoping for that big payoff.
Smoooooaaaaaaaak!!!!!!!
Joe,
Amazing stuff!
I have a few rambling thoughts:
Congratulations on the Anniversary*/**
*my 10th is also this year
**you took your wife AND kids to Vegas for your 10th anniversary???
Did you bring the babysitter/nanny along with you?
I’ve chosen to not vote in the FC poll as I have no worthy opinions or knowledge.
I have picked up my new favorite term from one of your commentors although I would argue the spelling, my preference is sheople.
Have fun! Only gamble what you can afford. This, of course, is a losing mentality but I look at it as paying for entertainment with the slight chance that you may not pay at all. I guess the better advice is IF you get ahead know when to stop. They don’t like that in Vegas.
Craig Hooten makes the Moneyball point.
When you’re starting with nothing, it is very difficult to try and build with 18 year olds.
Joe, I’m starting a blog, total neophyte, (don’t worry, not even remotely close to a sports blog) and I love this Pressrow theme you’re using. But the designer isn’t supporting it any more and I desperately need some tech help. Any chance you could email me your support person, if you’re not making your own layout changes? If so, huge thanks. -gt
Yep, it’s definitely Moneyball.
Granted the A’s haven’t managed to win the World Series but they’ve had one losing season since 1998 and made 5 playoff appearances despite being in the ballpark payroll wise as the Royals.
They haven’t been right on every pick, nobody is.
In the last 10 years they have hit on Mulder, Zito, Bobby Crosby, Nick Swisher, Mark Teahen, Joe Blanton and Huston Street and Travis Buck(who had better numbers than Billy Butler last year in a similar amount of at bats). They also deviated one year and picked Jeremy Bonderman out of HS.
Whereas the Royals have “hit”(and I use the term loosely for the first 3 and possibly Hochevar) on Jimmy Gobble, Mike Macdougal, Kyle Snyder, Zack Grienke, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon and Luke Hochevar.
PS: Minda’s exactly right. Plus, you do know a little something about how to put words together.
Craig, there is one flaw with your analysis: you are using a pool of first round picks only to demonstrate what we should have done with picks in rounds 1-6. How confident are you that the rates you analyze from first round picks will carry through deeper into the draft?
Craig, don’t think I was mocking Moneyball.
You will notice the A’s of 2008 are more than willing to invest in high school talent. They have that luxury now.
The A’s of 1998 did not, and the Moneyball theory was to stock up on 20-22 year old players in the draft to speed up the process.
“The Edgy Hope of Winning” b y Joe Posnanski – coming soon to a Barnes and Noble near you.
Curtis, it’s a valid question. I’ve never really wanted to spend the time to go figure out the later rounds (it’s a lot of work).
It’s definitely an area that needs to be analyzed more but realistically I would expect the stats to hold up because what we’re basically looking at here is the difference in 18 year olds and 22 year olds and the difference in pitchers and hitters and that shouldn’t change depending on what round they are drafted in.
My issue with high school pitchers is that for the most part, their bodies haven’t matured and they are being “projected” whereas with college hitters for instance what you see is probably what you’re going to get from a mature body standpoint.
Hitters are as a whole, FAR more projectable and typically are less prone to career threatening injuries. Because of this, they tend to have longer careers (I’m theorizing here, The University of Colorado at Boulder did a study but “Pitchers were excluded because of their unique positions, career volatility and propensity for injuries.”).
Obviously, you can’t ignore pitching, it’s half the game (or more), but it’s not that hard to find if you know what you’re looking for (Soria, Bannister and Ramon Ramirez would be good examples from this year’s Royals).
So the point is here, go fill your minor league system with a bunch of good hitters(which is statisically easier), create a surplus and use that surplus to go find pitchers that have actually survived their 18-22 years,have grown into their bodies and have the attributes that you look for in a pitcher.
G Young, I didn’t think you were being mocking, I just wanted to give credit to Moneyball since I hadn’t made it clear before.
As for them drafting more high schoolers now, their first 9 picks this year are college players.
ewww Corey Patterson
.295 career OPB
My number was SEVEN!!
How did you do that, Joe?
I actually picked 7, and almost crapped myself when you said my number was seven…
You, Joe Posnanski, are a spooky, spooky man!
“He’s got a great swing, a great body, great high school numbers, all that.”
This always confuses me, when people bring up a prospects “Great high school numbers.”
“He hit .572 in high school with 4 homers and 38 RsBI!”
“He had an ERA of 0.32 in High school!”
I mean, is this supposed to mean something? It’s HIGH SCHOOL! They squared off against pimply faced scrawny kids who weighed 62 pounds and couldn’t life a 21 ounce bat. Or saw pitchers who threw a 51 MPH ‘fastball’.
The point is that athletically gifted kids will all look like Mickey Mantle in high school, because their opposition sucks. If a team is ever lucky enough to get 2 or 3 athletically gifted kids on their team, they’ll win state championships for three or four years running, because the teams they’re facing have 1 or 0 kids with such ability.
I’m willing to bet that Neifi Perez and Tony Pena Jr OPS’ed 1.800 in high school too.
Now, obviously, there are no other numbers available for these kids, so you have to look at something, and there’s ofcourse a huge difference between a kid who hits .614 and a kid who hits .320. The first may make a major leaguer someday, the latter almost surely won’t. (Primarily because he’ll never be given the chance.)
I just never get the amount of importance attached to high school numbers. Every single article I’ve read about the first round draft picks mentioned their high school numbers as if they were somehow important.
I believe Dave McCarty holds the Twins record for lowest VORP in a season, so there’s always something like that to look forward to.
Does that card trick use only 21 cards?
/the only one I know does.
//it’s a humdinger
It’s not just the high school numbers that the clubs are using to evaluate a prospect. It’s how the kid plays. But you can’t really quantify how good a high school kid is, it’s really much more subjective than that..
Personnally I haven’t seen a lot of Major League players when they were in high school, but I did watch a lot of LeBron James when he was playing sports in high school. He averaged 30 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game his senior year. There were probably dozens of other high school players that put up equivalent numbers that year. But nobody – nobody – had ever seen a kid that big play that well in high school before or since.
So it’s not just the quantifiable stuff that makes a kid a number one draft choice. There’s an awful lot of intangibles too.
It’s amazing the misconceptions folks have about Vegas. KCJoe, your approach, to view as entertainment and know how much you are willing to lose when you start, is the only rational way to play. And I work for a casino company. The thing is, with a few exceptions, no one player really makes or breaks us –we win on volume. I like when players, especially good, loyal players, win. If they never won, they’d stop coming, and over time, there’s no bucking the odds. That said, other than video poker, your chances of finding a 97% payback machine on the strip these days in a nice casino is essentially nil. You’re paying for entertainment and the chance to win — and lots of people do win, there’s just more that don’t.
Love that Vegas line… “You’re paying for entertainment”. That’s what they insinuated at the new Wynn Hotel when they charged me 28 bucks for two scrambled eggs. (Hey, the front signage cost 120 mil – they got to make it back somehow – after all what fun to look at that sign! Wow. You can see it from 500 yards on a bright 120 degree Vegas day. Yippee… I think it says “Scrambled Eggs 28 bucks”.)
Used to be an unspoken deal in Vegas – come and gamble and we’ll cover your room, your meals and your drinks, heck we’re making enough anyway – but it’s not good enough now. The only 3.99 all you can eat breakfast you’ll find now is in Reno.
At Wynn, you’re paying to feed Steve Wynn’s ego….we don’t have $3.99 eggs anymore, but they sure as hell aren’t anything like $28. I’m just talking about gambling when I say paying for entertainment…