.400 and the Hall of Fame
Posted: June 3rd, 2008 | Filed under: Baseball | 40 Comments »
I apologize in advance … the headline makes this seem like it would be about Chipper Jones. But it isn’t. Maybe later.
Everybody has read Moneyball by now … so you have to figure that on-base percentage has never been more popular or more appreciated in baseball history. Pretty much every baseball fan is at least aware of OBP now, pretty much every media type will at least offer a grudging nod to OBP now, pretty much every baseball organization will at least give lip service to the idea that it’s a pretty good idea for batters to get on base.*
*This part’s for Royals fans, mostly — you people who don’t care about the Royals can skip ahead: I must admit … I’ve been frustrated by the way the Kansas City Royals have handled Esteban German the last three years. I’m not as frustrated as Bill James — who wrote an fairly long essay on the subject in Gold Mine — but I am still frustrated. In Allard Baird’s final Winter Meetings, he traded Fabio Castro to Texas for German, and Allard raved about German’s ability to get on base. It was true — German had a .393 career OBP in the minor leagues, and he walked about 97 times per 162 games down there. German did not offer many other gifts — he was about an average runner, he did not bring much defensively (the Royals once put him in center field and he got hit in the face with a fly ball), and so on.
But … he really could get on base. if you’re going to have one skill, as far as I’m concerned, that’s the one to have. German had a spectacular first half-year. In 279 at-bats, he hit .326 and had a .422 on-base percentage. He hit 18 doubles and five triples in roughly a half-season’s worth of plate appearances, and … well, he showed a whole lot of promise. There were a few rumblings within the organization that German was the Royals second baseman of the future. There were also a few rumblings that German was not someone you could play every day because he would wear down, and he was not good enough defensively, and so on.
The Royals and Dayton Moore listened to the second rumbling. Played it safe, I guess. They re-signed veteran second baseman Mark Grudzielanek for a few million, and they kept playing German in that goofy catch-all role that he seems entirely unsuited for. German was not nearly as good in 2007. He hit only .264 in 405 plate appearances, his OPS+ dropped from 128 to 90, and the German cynics crowed, “I told you so.” During the off-season, Moore traded for second baseman Alberto Callaspo, basically eliminating any need for German. They did keep him around, though, and this year, German has only gotten 52 plate appearances, and his numbers are brutal, further convincing the anti-Esty crowd that they were right.
Well, I’m not so sure. I think it is at least possible that the Royals have ruined German because of their own stubbornness. Relatively young players who can potentially put up .400 OBPs are rare commodities. In my mind, you don’t screw around with those kinds of players, you don’t move them around to 12 different positions (especially when they can barely play one adequately), you don’t sit them down for three days, then play them, then sit them down more, then pinch hit hem. You at least give them a chance to play every day to see how they might hold up, right? You surely don’t block them with 37-year-old second basemen …
Especially the last part. This is where it gets interesting to me — the way teams look at BATTING AVERAGE and ON-BASE PERCENTAGE. In 2007, Mark Grudzielanek hit .302. He was named the Royals player of the year. He was given another big contract year. Esteban German, as mentioned, hit .264 in a confused and part-time role and was basically written off.
And yet their on-base percentages even in that one year:
Grud: .346.
German: .351.
I don’t know if German would blossom in a .380-.400 OBP guy if he led off every day. I don’t know if he could be an adequate defensive second baseman if he played every day. I really don’t. But neither do the Royals. And again it seems me that when you’re the Royals, desperate for any offensive weapon you can find, you really should find out.
OK, back to the main point about OBP. There’s no doubt that baseball fans and baseball management types are much more aware of on-base percentage these days than they have ever been in the past. It’s striking, as I research baseball in 1975 (did I mention that I’m writing this book …) how little respect players got back then for walking.
The 1975 Reds, just as an example, scored 100 more runs than any other team in the National League (and 172 more runs than the league average) They did this even though they did not lead the league in batting average, doubles, triples, home runs or slugging percentage. What was the key? Well, two keys: They drew by far the most walks, though, and they stole a lot of bases at a very high percentage .The leader of that team was, of course, Joe Morgan, who had one an amazing year: .327/.466/.508, 27 doubles, 6 triples, 17 homers, 94 RBIs, 107 runs, 67 stolen bases, 132 walks against 52 strikeouts. Bill James figured that Morgan scored 44 Win Shares in ‘75 — more than any player from 1961 (Mickey Mantle) to 1989 (Will Clark).
And the funny part about Morgan is that almost every day he did interviews where he had to try and convince reporters that he did not walk a lot because of his height. That’s what they assumed — “Hey, you’re small, that’s why you walk.” Poor Joe had to explain again and again that being short had nothing to do with it, that he worked for his walks, that he had an advanced understanding of the strike zone, that on-base percentage really mattered a lot more than batting average. And the reporters (as we will) chuckled to themselves and said out loud, “Ha ha — Little Joe keeps on walking because of his teensy weensy strike zone!”
So, it’s not QUITE like that anymore. At least that. Still, I’m not sure even in our advanced state of being that people give OBP its due. I was thinking about this when I saw a story asking whether or not MannyBManny belongs in the Hall of Fame. There’s really no question in my mind that he does belong, but that’s not what struck me.
What struck me was this: MannyBManny has a career .408 on-base percentage.
You know, that’s pretty remarkable. And I’m not sure people realize JUST HOW REMARKABLE it is. In fact, I was not aware how remarkable it is until I did a quick Baseball Reference search. MannyBManny isn’t just a first-ballot, no-doubt Hall of Famer … he should go down as one of the, what, five best right-handed hitters ever.
Take a look for yourself: Do you know how many players in modern baseball history have played 2,000 games and maintained a .400 on-base percentage?
Answer: 22.
That’s it. That’s going all the way back to 1901, going back to Cobb and Ruth and Gehrig and the rest.
In fact, here’s a list:
Hall of Famers
Ted Williams, .482
Babe Ruth, .474
Lou Gehrig, .447
Rogers Hornsby, .434
Ty Cobb, .433
Jimmie Foxx, .428
Tris Speaker, .428
Eddie Collins, .424
Mickey Mantle, .421
Stan Musial, .417
Wade Boggs, .415
Mel Ott, .414
Harry Heilmann, .410
Paul Waner, .404
Charlie Gehringer, .404
Not yet in the Hall
Barry Bonds, .444
Frank Thomas, .420
Edgar Martinez, .418
Manny Ramirez, .408
Jeff Bagwell, .408
Jim Thome, .407
Rickey Henderson, .401
None of the not-yet-in guys are eligible … and all of them seem to have interesting cases. Henderson, I’m sure, will be a first-ballot, 95% guy, but obviously there are all those issues with Bonds. Thomas and Martinez seemingly have had Hall of Fame points taken away because of their time at DH. Thome has never gotten his due, and strangely I have not sensed a lot of enthusiasm among voters about Bagwell. That leaves MannyBManny and the various emotions that he inspires.
Personally — and I’m talking baseball talk here, not steroids or any of that stuff — I vote for all these guys. And I don’t think I have any hesitation. I don’t like magical numbers determining Hall of Fame qualifications — 300 wins, 3,000 hits, 500 homers any of that. But if you are going to have a statistical line, I’m thinking a .400 OBP over a long career is as good a line as any.
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Great list. Thomas and Bagwell are going to make it. Edgar probably will though it may take a while (I don’t think it should, but I’m guessing some of the voters will not be enthusiastic initially).
Two stunning things on that list. Williams .482 is just ridiculous. And Jim Thome. I knew he was a great hitter but yeah, I’d say he hasn’t gotten his due.
Manny is a certain 1st ballot HOF entry and he is good for baseball. I was in my teens in the 70’s when I fell in love with baseball and look forward to your book. 1975 was a great year for a young Royals team and then of course the season was topped by a historic World Series. Could not agree more with your assesment of the Royals handling of German.
I like to think that I’m a somewhat sophisticated baseball fan, but I think that my “Blink” level reactions to the names on that list are an interesting indication of my very human sense of gut-level “feelings” about subjective things like the Hall of Fame.
I looked at that list for five seconds.
Hall of Famer?
Bonds- yes
Thomas- yes
E-Mart- no
MBM- yes
Bagwell- no
Thome- no
Ricky- yes
There were no other numbers in front of me besides those (jaw-dropping) career OBP numbers. No counting stats, batting titles, Gold Gloves, MVP’s, or rings. Just me and my memories and nebulous sense of whether or not a guy “feels” like a Hall of Famer. Just thought it was interesting.
P.S.: all of these guys should probably be in.
P.P.S.: Go Royals! Kicking the White Sox all over their own park while I get to listen to Hawk whine the whole time?…YES!!!
And I said “no” to Bagwell even though I often, as a Cubs fan watching as he hammered the ball all over the yard against us 15-18 times a year, said about him: “crap, bases loaded now, who’s up next?…OH @#$&! Not HIM!!!”
I wonder if OBP would be deemed more important if instead of “batting average plus walks”, the populace thought of it as “ability to not get out.”
Great point Terry. We all ought to just call it that from now on, so the sheeple can catch a hold of its importance.
My eyes popped out of my head when I saw .482. By the way, is anyone else surprised Pujols is not on the future hall-of-fame list? So far he’s a career .423. Granted it’s a relatively short career. Also, small sample size, but this year he’s .486(!) (with a 195 OPS+(!!)). I bet he continues to climb up the ranks.
My favorite OBP team of all time- the ‘49 red sox. Their team batting average was .282, while the team obp was .379. Of course this was largely thanks to williams, but everyone with more than 100 ab’s obp’ed at least 70 points higher than their batting average.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/1949.shtml
Pujols IS on the “Not Yet” list. He’s the only player in his twenties whose rates (ops, win shares, mvp shares, b.a., etc) are so good that he gets in now. I think the author was just trying to simplify his point – not including him on the “Not Yet” list is just a formality….as you say, virtually no other players are in after 7 1/3 yrs (Williams and Dimaggio come to mind as those who might’ve been even if they never played more than 7-8 yrs. Plus Puj has the trophies: MVP, batting title, WS title).
That’s how I see it – I’m sure some might say he has to play a decade, etc…
PS – I know the post emphasized hitters like Manny who’ve OBP’ed over .400 for more than 2000 games, but what hitters have gotten in the HOF in really SHORT careers? I know Campanella got w/ just 4205 AB in 1215 games in 10 seasons…he won 3 MVPs.
Sorry, one more caveat/note. I don’t mean to hijack the thread…
I don’t want to invite an avalanche of opposition on the obviously contentious issue of HOF status. I was just making a “Jim Brown” argument about Puj. I think many would agree, while others would adopt different criteria. Didn’t mean to sound too peremptory in my response to poster Joe, that’s all, especially as I’m a huge Cards fan.
You know, it really does sound like the Royals need an entirely new crowd in their front office, not just a few replacements. When players aren’t sure what their role is…is damages their productivity. Sounds like they had a very good player and just wasted his talent.
And uuhh Grud was Royals POTY??? I can’t see why people think he’s so good. There’s a lot of overrated players. Besides, DeJesus and Butler were better in ‘07 as I remember it. Maybe I’m wrong…maybe I need to go check the stats again.
Hmm, just checked some stats. Who’s Joe Cunningham? http://baseball-reference.com/c/cunnijo01.shtml …he’s got a .403 OBP over 3362 career AB’s in a 12 year career with the Cardinals, White Sox, & Senators. He doesn’t have “HOF numbers”, but it makes me wonder if he was dealt with by management the way the Royals dealt with German. Perhaps you could dub it “Cunningham Syndrome”.
Sorry to comment twice, I just couldn’t find any other way to send you a message.
I know he doesn’t have 2000 games yet, but Todd Helton has got to be a first ballot based on the “good” stats. A .430 OBP and a 142 OPS+ are solid even in Coors.
There was a long argument about whether Manny is one of the top 5 right handed hitters ever at baseball think factory. His career averages are very good, although a lot of that is consistency; he doesn’t have the “peak” of some of the other guys (of course, his peak is absurdly good; this is only in comparison to the best right handed hitters ever.) I would put him behind Hornsby (the best), Foxx, Thomas, and McGwire. The fight for fifth is a nasty one, with Mays, Aaron, Frank Robinson, and Joe D all competing with Manny. I think you should throw in Dick Allen as well. And, now that we are on the subject, Pujols probably has a case.
And yes, Manny is obviously a Hall of Famer, although I do think his poor defense takes him out of the inner circle into merely a solid citizen.
Even though he didn’t quite reach .400 for his career, you have to love Eddie Yost’s career line of .254/.394/.371. It is pretty amazing that someone who was so poor a hitter otherwise could draw so many walks. His 1956 was incredible: he hit .231 with 11 home runs and 17 doubles, but managed to walk 151 times, driving up his OBP to .412!
Weird that a guy that was so good at drawing walks and talked about the importance of drawing walks would be so hardcore anti-moneyball (Joe Morgan).
To stay on topic but at the same time, throw a bone to those who thought this was about Chipper Jones:
Games: 1950
OBP: .406
This brings up an interesting point though – I’m not sure just OBP is good enough. You chose 2,000 games, which is a long enough time to establish that these guys are really good at getting on base. But 7 of those 22 are from the last 15 – 20 years. I would say at least 5 of them get in, and all 7 probably should. But look at the next crop of guys who might meet that criteria:
Helton: I mean the dude is 7th all time in OBP (post-1901), but is he really a HOFer? 142 OPS+ says maybe, but he doesn’t feel like it. I say he’s in, but the voters make him sit for 10 years in the Coors humidor before they let him in.
Berkman: Needs 4 more seasons, but again, doesn’t feel like a HOFer. Mediocre teams, poor defense, no higher than 3rd in the MVP voting.
Giambi: Seriously! If he plays the rest of this season and next, he would meet the criteria. But NO WAY he gets into the HOF.
Some others: Bobby Abreu? No. Chipper? Yeah, I could see that. How about this one:
Brian Giles: OBP .404 (OPS+ 139). Two more seasons and he gets to 2,000 games. Higher career OPS + than George Brett, Rod Carew, Dave Winfield, as high as Reggie Jackson and Griffey Jr. Obviously if he plays two more seasons, that will come down a few points, and his counting stats suck (he will probably barely get to 2k hits and will fall short of 300 HR’s). I’m just sayin’, let’s not get too excited over .400 OBPers. They’re excellent at the most important stat for a hitter. But not all of them should get in.
If you drop from 2000 games to 1000, you could have Roberto Hernandez and his .500 career OBP. And over 300 saves too! How can he miss the Hall of Fame?
Joe, can you ask your buddy Bill James to figure out a way to incorporate [steroid use/no steroid use] into OPS+? I want to know just how good Frank Thomas was. I have a feeling we were watching one of the best hitters of all time but just weren’t realizing it.
/tongue in cheek, but not really.
Bagwell and Helton are an interesting comparison study. No player of the last 20 years was hurt more by their home ball park than Jeff Bagwell. The Astro-dome was one of the greatest pitchers parks in history, and it especially sapped power. In a neutral park, Bagwell’s stat line is crazy-good. Todd Helton has played in the greatest hitters park ever created. He’s still a great hitter, but not nearly as good as he appeared early in his career. I think Bagwell rates as one of the all-time great first basemen, but Helton does not. Bagwell yes, Helton, no. It’ll be interesting to see if voters can figure out park effects (based on Jim Rice, I’ll say no).
That Joe Morgan the announcer would undervalue Joe Morgan the player is one of the great mysteries of our time.
Poor John Olerud misses the list with a .398. That guy was way way better than pretty much anyone (myself included) realized.
Josh-
Let’s chalk it up to modesty. *Ahem*
Brian, you don’t need a steroid adjustment (which I don’t think is possible anyway) to see Frank Thomas as one of the greatest hitters in baseball history. His career OPS+ has come down a little, although it is still extremely high, but his 1990-1997 peak was truly historic, probably one of the top ten stretches of hitting dominance in baseball history.
Right Blackadder – hence the “tongue in cheek” think at the end.
Bagwell and Thomas are both easy HOFers in my book, and I’m one who thinks we have too many HOFers already.
There has been a lot of talk about “tools” and 5-tool players this week on this blog. (Good stuff, btw.) But I wonder, shouldn’t plate discipline be considered a tool? And shouldn’t it be considered more important, far more important in some cases, than the traditional five tools. Who is more valuable, a player with a lot of the five tools but who lacks plate discipline (like Brandon Phillips), or a player with little of the five tools but with great plate discipline (Eddie Stanky, with a .410 career OBP). My gut says Phillips is more valuable, but mind thinks it might just be Stanky: there is nothing more important than not making outs.
I’d vote for Bagwell even though I think for a few seasons he was on roids. He was a tremendous hitter, a good fielder, and people forget that he could run, too. For what it is worth, he was always a team leader, a stand-up guy, and a good person in the Houston community. He should make it, as will Biggio.
[...] his stats that really makes his case as well as anything else is his on-base percentage. Reading Joe Posnanski’s blog, I noticed this. Of the 22 players in baseball history who have had a career on-base percentage of [...]
That Joe Morgan story only adds to present day mind numbing ignorance. He just doesn’t want to “admit” to agreeing with anything in Moneyball even though he does….. probably also because he never read the book and thinks Billy Beane wrote it.
People saying no on Bagwell just baffles me. Baffles. I guess it’s because he played in Houston, they never went anywhere, it wasn’t until Clemens and Pettite showed up that they finally won a playoff series (and Bagwell didn’t play in most of those) etc.
Who cares about Houston, right? Roy Oswalt has been one of the top 5 pitchers in the NL for the last five years (this year excluded), I don’t think anyone knew who he was.
And yet, Baggs! Has a career OPS+ of 149 (!!). 7 straight years of 100+ walks and 30+ homeruns. 9 total years of 30+ homers. 9 years of 100+ RsBI.
He wasn’t spectacular with the glove, but he was good enough. During his peak he was even an excellent base runner and a decent base stealer.
No Hall of Fame? That’s it?
I need to subscribe to reference’s BPI index. I think Bagwell probably ranks top ten in OPS+ for first basemen. Maybe top five. Can someone who has a subscription run that?
I’ve done a quick glance on the OPS+ career leaderboard, where Baggs ranks 34th. That’s all players all time. Quickly, I think that ranks him fifth among first basemen, but I may have missed one or two names that don’t immediately ring a bell as to their position.
It’s probably worthy to note that his career 149 OPS+ is higher than that of :
Giambi,
Vlad,
ARod
Chipper
Helton
Sheffield
Piazza
Ortiz
Griffey Jr
And so on.
For those who said no on Frank Thomas, that even more flabbergasting. Career OPS+ of 157. In pure OBP, he’s 20th ALL TIME!
Btw, here’s another guy who plays in Houston that nobody’s ever heard of. Lance Berkman. Rob Neyer fell out of his chair when Berkman had his insane month and Richard Justice said Berkman would go to the Hall of Fame.
“Berkman?! REALLY?!”
Then he looked up the stats. Oh. Wow.
How’s his 27th all time career OBP look? (so far).
“By the way, is anyone else surprised Pujols is not on the future hall-of-fame list? ”
He hasn’t played 2000 games yet, which was Joe’s cutoff point.
To be fair, neither has Lance Berkman.
“probably also because he never read the book and thinks Billy Beane wrote it.”
Everybody knows a computer wrote Moneyball. It was originally titled “Computerball : How Computers Will Abduct Your Sister And Rule The World After The AI Wars.”
I also saw someone say that Berkman doesn’t “feel” like a Hall of Famer. Have you LOOKED at the guy’s stats? If it wasn’t for Pujols playing in the same division, we’d be talking about him as the best first baseman in baseball right now.
He has a career OPS of .983! His lowest ever season was .896, which was last year when everyone said he was in a “horrible” slump.
Seriously, it has to be because these two guys play(ed) in Houston, and nobody ever watches any Houston games. Lance Berkman = AWESOME.
Speaking of Frank Thomas, why hasn’t anyone talked about the evolution away from the Lau/Hriniak hitting philosophy of the late 70s to the early 90s(leg stride toward pitcher, take top half off bat after contact) back towards the Ted Williams 40s to the late 60s philosophy (never swing at a ball/powerful hip turn/leave top hand on bat)? I think the two best examples of this change are looking at Frank Thomas’ swing in his first few seasons and comparing it with Albert Pujols today.
Also, whatever happened to Walt Hriniak?
[...] his stats that really makes his case as well as anything else is his on-base percentage. Reading Joe Posnanski’s blog, I noticed this. Of the 22 players in baseball history who have had a career on-base percentage of [...]
[...] Joe Posnanski added an interesting post on .400 and the Hall of FameHere’s a small excerptGerman did not offer many other gifts — he was about an average runner, he did not bring much defensively (the Royals once put him in center field and he got hit in the face with a fly ball), and so on. … [...]
[...] .400 and the Hall of FameI apologize in advance … the headline makes this seem like it would be about Chipper Jones. But it isn’t. Maybe later. Everybody has read Moneyball by now … so you have to figure that on-base percentage has never been more popular or … – [...]