Night and Day, You Are The One
Posted: May 15th, 2008 | Filed under: Banny Log | 27 Comments »
So, I promised to get back to you on this quirky Brian Bannister day-night split issue. First, just as a reminder, here are Banny’s day and night splits for this year.
Brian Bannister by day (this year):
– 4-0, 0.62 ERA, 29 ip, 12 hits, 3 runs, 2 earned runs, 0 homers, 7 walks, 18 K.
Batting average against: .126; OPS: .320; OPS+ -10(!)*, Babip: .156.
Brian Bannister by night (this year):
– 0-4, 8.02 ERA, 21 1/2 ip, 33 hits, 19 runs, 19 earned, 5 homers, 5 walks, 11 K,
Batting average against: .344; OPS .960; OPS+ 158(!), Babip: .350.
Obviously it’s a very small sample size. Still it’s weird and, as mentioned here, his career numbers (also a relatively small sample size, though he is 10-1 during the day) are also quite skewed toward day baseball.
So, I asked Banny about this (through the magic of phone texting*) … his answer in a moment. First a quick look at the whole question of day-night splits … I have always been led to believe that it’s easier for hitters in the daytime. I think that’s just something as baseball fans you grow up believing. Well, it only makes sense. You would expect the light to be better.
*I don’t know … sometimes I wonder why old farts my age do not want to embrace new technologies. I keep hearing about people who hate phone texting … it’s moving us apart and all that. You know what? I love the phone text. I’m really not bothered at all that people aren’t talking as much as they used to talk … it seems to me that before there was a lot of POINTLESS talk going on. You wanted to call someone to ask one question, and you ended up having to talk about a lot of about the weather and gas prices and shallow family updates (“Yep, the kids are growing up all right!â€). If I want to talk to someone, I can do that. But if I just want an answer, whammo, phone text … one question, one answer, no fuss. Nobody types more than they had to in a phone message — it’s a monument to conciseness.
To me this is like the pay-at-the-pump technology — I have heard some people say, “Well, this just makes us the kind of society where people don’t talk to each other as much.†No, it makes us the kind of society where I don’t have to deal with the person in the gas station who, in my general experience, had absolutely ZERO interest in my life except for what pump my car was at. Which is understandable. The days of people going into the filling station to talk to Goober about happenings around town are pretty far back in the rear view mirror. I swear, I think sometimes people just make up reasons to hate progress.
But, as Bill James often asks: Is it true? Do hitters have more success in the daytime.
And as Bill James often finds out: No. It’s not true.
Major League Baseball averages for day games, 2000-2007: .265/.335/.425
Major League Baseball averages for night games, 2000-2007: .267/.335/.426
There you go. So … forget that whole line of thinking, please. Teams scored very, very slightly better at night, are just slightly more likely to hit doubles and triples at night, and strike just an itty-bitty bit less often at night. Everything else, best I can tell, is identical. I don’t think this says batters hit BETTER at night … it seems likely to me that more often starting players play at night (managers seem likely to use backup catchers and rest some of their stars in a day game after a night game). I would guess that if you could ever remove the noise, day and night work out to be the same thing.
I think that if you really consider the factors, this makes sense. Lights are now so much better than they ever were before. Maybe hitting during the day was an advantage, you know, when they were playing night games in the Negro Leagues and the lights were roughly about the same height as Eric Montross. Plus, these players play more than twice as often at night so that becomes more the norm. Plus, there are advantages to hitting at night too — less glare, maybe, a more consistent light, and whatever else.
In other words, I don’t think any crazy day-night splits can be easily explained by baseball talk like “He hides the ball better at night†or whatever. Many point to the strange case of Bronson Arroyo, who ever since he has arrived in Cincinnati has had extreme night-day splits.
This year:
Night: 2-2, 4.46 ERA
Day: 0-2, 15.43 ERA
Last year:
Night: 8-9, 3.93 ERA
Day: 1-6, 5.35 ERA
2006
Night: 9-5, 2.52 ERA
Day: 5-6, 5.29 ERA
Well, a couple of things. For one … before he got to Cincinnati, he had not shown this nutty day-night tendency. So maybe it’s a lifestyle change. Maybe the day problems gotten to his head. Maybe he has vampire issues. Maybe it’s just a weird fluke. Or maybe there’s something deeper. I don’t really know. But I have a strong suspicion this doesn’t have much to do with hitters seeing the ball better against him during the day or whatever.
To Banny. I texted him the question: So what’s the deal with the day-night split? He texted me the sort of answer that, once again, explains why he’s the coolest guy in the game:
“The hitters tell me my fastball looks faster when they’re still a little hungover.â€
So there you go. And then, because he is Banny, he delved a little deeper. “I don’t change anything,†he wrote. “The reasons have to do with:
1. Facing lower OPS lineups during the day.
– There could be something to this. Look at the lineups he’s faced in day games:
April 2: Threw seven shutout innings against Detroit — Edgar Renteria was the only Tigers player who got a hit the whole game (he got three). This was more or less the regular Tigers lineup, but Curtis Granderson was out, and Jacque Jones was still with the club.
April 8: Five tough innings against New York — really fought off the Yankees, allowing five hits and four walks. Derek Jeter did not play.
April 14: Complete game three hitter against Minnesota, which played without Joe Mauer and Michel Cuddyer.
May 11: Eight innings, two hits, zero runs against Baltimore … Brian Roberts did not play.
2. The difficulty of sweeping a team.
– Brian believes, a lot of people believe, that most teams play differently when they’ve won the first two games of a series (or, in the case of Baltimore, the first three). Maybe they get content. Maybe they lose a little edge. I’m not sure I completely into this … I haven’t really studied how teams do in third games after they’re won the first two. I probably wouldn’t know how to study it. I do know that Pete Rose says the same thing … he said what those great Reds teams had (did I mention this book … oh, never mind) was a killer instinct and this sort of unquenchable desire to win games just because they just really, really liked winning games, and really, really hated losing them.
Anyway, Brian has pitched a couple of times with his team facing a potential sweep, and he thinks that’s given him an edge. And he’s been on the other side of it too, and that’s given the other team an edge.
3. And it’s a small sample size, plus the day conditions have generally benefitted my pitching style so far this year (No Texas and hurricane conditions).
- This part is definitely true. Banny’s struggles at night are, in large part, due to two games. He got hit pretty good by the California Angels … I thought the Angels basically attacked Banny early in the count, had a good plan, and hit him a little bit. The other tough performance was in Texas, a home run park, and the wind was howling out, horrible conditions for any pitcher and especially Banny. He has given up five homers all year, three of them in that game. In those two games combined, he pitched 9 2/3 innings and gave up 12 runs. Take away those two games, Banny’s ERA is 1.99 this year.
Which just goes to show you how small a sample size we are dealing with here. I think it’s something worth watching because, hey, it’s baseball, and it’s Banny. But my opinion is that this is more or less just small sample size talking.
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I love how you referred to the Angels as the California Angels. I realize ESPN probably won’t do this because of the Disney connections, but we as a people need to make our voice heard on this issue. The California Angels is the only way in which that team should be referred.
Something I’ve recently discovered about day/night splits, is in 1st Inning Scoring. In the past 15 days, teams are scoring in 51% of the 1st innings, but at night they’re scoring in 58% of the 1st innings. That’s a pretty big difference. A few days ago, the daytime number was 46%…it’s been quite a week in the 1st inning.
Good stuff, Joe. Thanks for sharing. Like you said at the end, all those things make sense, but it’s still weird.
One minor correction: Michael Young plays for Texas. Maybe you meant Brian Roberts?
Jaret Wright has had a career like that (or the opposite of that, actually).
Day: 6.10 ERA in 284 2/3 IP
Night: 4.67 ERA in 688 IP
But texts are pointless for the teens using them. My neighbor had over 16000 in a month! That’s one every 2.7 minutes! He had a friend that more than doubled that and sent 38000! That’s like 1 a minute, WITHOUT SLEEP!
In your case, texts are good. When I see someone that can’t stay in their lane driving down the freeway, instead of automatically thinking they are drunk I have to assess the type of car and guess is it a drunk, or a teen texting? I love passing these cars and seeing the driver face down into his/her lap typing whatever “important” message they have now, that’s more important than getting to their destination safely. If you have that much to say, maybe you could actually call someone?
i never even really knew anything about bannister before i started reading your blog, and i can now say that he is one of my favorite players in the mlb
I agree with Aaron. I text sometimes and find it useful (I’m 37). The college kids I teach text constantly. They text in class. I had a kid texting while visiting my office hour to discuss why he was failing. I think that is what people object to.
I do agree that pay at the pump is great, but I think it came after the switch away from talking to Goober. So, the change to impersonal service came first, then it was automated. My dad, forever and ever, bought gas from a single station in a small town. The guy who pumped it owned the station, had a garage as part of the station and really, sincerely talked with his clients. He refused to install pay at the pump and it was great. His station was like a barbershop for cars. He died recently and already it has become just another place to buy gas. Inevitable, but sad.
Thanks for the answers from James. I’m surprised, but that isn’t unusual.
I like Banny’s first explanation the best. And while the hungover part was (probably?) in jest, there might be something to the idea that guys are out of their usual routine when they have to play day games and some might not be as focused and prepared to play.
I always saw the ball better at night. For me, I think it was the white of the ball showed up better against a night sky under the lights. (Then I went to a college with no lights at their field).
I don’t like cell phones in general, but it has more to do with the billing than the convenience. So the reason I don’t text is I don’t want to be charged for a new thing on top of the $90 I pay a month for my wife not to answer her phone.
California Angels—-thanks for that poke in the ribs -Joe -at team names which could be another blog post.
LOL’d at the California Angels line. Joe, I think saying “California Angels” — or making some reference to them — should be a requirement in all future blog posts.
It can be your Gary Coleman “Whatchoo talkin’ bout, Willis?” punchline.
Everybody needs one.
Here’s one other angle that I haven’t heard. Day games are usually “get away days” for at least one team, if not both. For sure the visiting team may be a little more aggressive at the plate, umpires usually call a little bigger strike zone, and pitchers tend to throw more strikes. Everybody just want to get on the road.
Maybe some of this plays better for Banny than other pitchers.
Just an idea. I’m curious what the average time of a day game is vs. night games.
In general, isn’t the quality of the opponents’ lineup lower during the day? The whole day off on a day game following a night game? Aren’t their fewer superstars in the lineup on Monday get-away days than other days of the week?
I was gonna make KCJoe’s suggestion; I think the getaway day is the main cause, but Josh-in-DC and Banny himself might be onto something too. Like the thesis to any good civics paper, it’s probably a combination of factors.
DiceK is another good example of this; not nearly as extreme a split, but he gets more K’s and much fewer BB’s during the daytime; for a guy who’s always nibbling around the zone, an expanded zone and aggressive hitters trying to get away make a nice difference.
Ignoring yesterday’s Tigers/Royals afternoon game, in which the Royals lineup (Buck, DeJesus, and Gordon resting) drilled Rogers, I still think the lineup difference is the best explanation. Day games usually have the backup catcher, and a couple other starters get a rest. But as long as we’re going with a small sample size, most day games are played on Sundays, so I think it would be useful to compare Sunday day games vs. ODOTW day games. Also a lot of get-away games are played at night, so we (i.e., someone else) could compare getaway day games vs. getaway night games.
Day lineups do tend to have some inferior hitters (namely backup catchers), but the data reveals that teams hit practically the same in day and night games, so in the long run the difference isn’t very pronounced. However, in an isolated situation it could make a pretty big difference; resting Victor Martinez for Kelly Shoppach, for instance, completely changes the dynamic of the lineup, and removes the second most dangerous hitter from the lineup.
My theories are that hitters bat better at night, but worse players play in day games.
I don’t have the time or the inclination to test any of this in a rigorous way, but there’s no reason why the two factors, one a plus and one a minus, couldn’t cancel themselves out and leave us with the same overall level of offense in day and night games.
Does anybody have a calculator? I’ve almost got it…
“Major League Baseball averages for day games, 2000-2007: .265/.335/.425
Major League Baseball averages for night games, 2000-2007: .267/.335/.426″
Those lines actually surprise me. Not because there’s no difference between day and night, but because average OBP is only .335. I was always led to believe that .360 was average. A guy who gets on base at a .360 clip is actually quite a bit better than average.
I ‘ll take that “hungover” as reason No.1.
Ever since “The Long Season” was published before Civil rights movement became everyday life, we ‘ve heard how bad professional baseball players party and drug themselves (with things legal and illegal, recreational and tobacco).
Of course Wrigley needs to adopt more night games, and Jeter would tell you why.
Major league players are paid big to get a life as well, I guess…
Joe, I hate to burst your bubble, but the version of your book that goes for $5.99 is the Kindle version. Kindle is amazon.com’s ebook reader. The actual physical version is still more expensive. Hey, are you still sending signed stickers?
Will I know everything Pete Rose has ever said if I continue reading this blog? If the answer is yes- that’s awesome.
Just leave out Joe “well when I played” Morgan.
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this is completely off-topic, but could someone please tell mark grace to stop saying “gas” every 17 pitches during dbacks games? i know that has nothing to do with anything, but i need somewhere to vent. every time i hear it i shiver the same way i did each time i saw wiley wiggins touch his nose during dazed and confused. surely someone reading this blog is a dbacks fan and feels my pain.
No posts in two days? Joe must be caught up in the drama of the great Royals-Marlins rivalry.
avg obp slg ops
Day .309 .372 .510 .882
Night .303 .368 .479 .848
Splits for one of my favorites who would down a few after games. Apparently no hangover effect for George Brett.