Comments on: Banny Log 05.11.08

By: Moneyball from below? « Away Games: A Minnesota Twins Blog

Moneyball from below? « Away Games: A Minnesota Twins Blog — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 20:08:20 +0000

[...] Royals were already sabermetric fan favorites due to the presence of Brian Bannister, who famously said: Just had to let my Babip regress before I started dealing [...]

By: Brian Bannister Loves the BABIP | Sportsaholic Daily

Brian Bannister Loves the BABIP | Sportsaholic Daily — Fri, 30 May 2008 18:19:59 +0000

[...] not a direct comparison, but it’s certainly valid. Anyway, Joe mentions a hilariously awesome text message exchange after the game. It was like that. Banny was mostly working fastball as he does when he’s [...]

By: arkada?l?k

arkada?l?k — Tue, 20 May 2008 16:46:58 +0000

tenks

By: The Curling News

The Curling News — Tue, 13 May 2008 18:40:15 +0000

Nice curling story, Joe. We remember the encounter well.

See you in Vancouver…?

By: Mark

Mark — Tue, 13 May 2008 10:50:02 +0000

Intuition, mine included, violently rejects the notion that a pitcher’s BABIP does not reflect an underlying skill. Sure, the issue isn’t completely settled, but I think it’s safe to conclude that, insofar as high-BABIP and low-BABIP pitchers exist, the difference between the extremes is not very great over large sample sizes.

The issue is this: if one pitcher has a career BABIP-against of .285 and another has a BABIP-against of .292, that fact by itself reveals very little about the expected success of either pitcher. Looking at K-rates, BB-rates & HR-rates on the other hand, will leave little doubt as to who’s good and who isn’t. Greg Maddux isn’t great because he’s suppressed hits on balls in play, he’s great because he’s struck out 3.38 batters for every one he’s walked.

Not every strikeout is because a pitcher’s stuff is hard to make contact with (even Livan Hernandez strikes out batters, after all), but one can easily see that the league leaders in Ks are about the same from year to year. Same with walks. Look at hits allowed, though, and you’ll see wild fluctuations.

Baseball is crazy complex and any statistical analysis of it necessarily starts with abstracting a very narrow slice of reality. Here, it doesn’t matter if a pitcher manages to induce a lot of weak contact, because the chaotic chain of events following that contact means that this skill doesn’t show up in stats.

By: Snowman

Snowman — Tue, 13 May 2008 04:34:19 +0000

I don’t think anyone who has ever seen more than a handful of Maddux starts can truly believe a pitcher has no control over his BABIP. Limited control, I’d go along with, but not zero percent.

People who understand stats better than I tell me that studies have proven this to not be true, but it has always seemed to me that the difference is in the line drive rates. When it comes to liners, your fate is in the hands of the three old crones and where your defense is positioned. But if hitters aren’t making solid contact and all your balls in play are soft bleeders, a greater percentage of them should result in an out. And some pitchers certainly do give up more liners than others.

By: Dan

Dan — Tue, 13 May 2008 03:59:39 +0000

I skimmed both articles because its late and their long .

I can see both sides. There is some definitely randomness that makes some ABs into a single thru the left side and some into a GIDP.

It just seems inutitive that a good pitcher that won’t allow hitters to square up a ball will get more outs on balls in play . On the other end of the spectrum, if a pitchers serving up meatballs, he’ll still get people out, but not at the rate that he’d like. The .290 just doesn’t correlate to my limited observations.

Maybe we can’t solve this tonight…

By: Preston

Preston — Mon, 12 May 2008 23:05:28 +0000

Tom Tippett actually showed fairly convincingly that pitchers do have some control over BABIP in the following article:

http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/ipavg2.htm

Key quote: “In a sample of 351 pitchers with at least 6000 career balls in play, more than 12% of them posted results that would happen less than 1% of the time by chance.”

By: Steve S.

Steve S. — Mon, 12 May 2008 22:07:38 +0000

Joe … In golf, if I lie 20 feet from the 18th hole after four strokes, and my competitor is six inches from the hole shooting for a three, am I quitter if I concede his putt, and thus the hole, and even the match? No, and in fact I’m a jerk if I make him putt it. But I still enjoyed the story.

By: Brad

Brad — Mon, 12 May 2008 21:09:44 +0000

Joe – If you don’t concede it is considered unsportsmanlike. Curling is one of those odd games where everything is based on calling your own fouls and playing pair. We Canadians have some different sporting traditions.
Plus if you concede the game, you to start drinking earlier. Add this to the fact that the winning team buys the first round, it’s a win win for all those around.