Rage, rage against the Intentional Walk

Posted: May 9th, 2008 | Filed under: Baseball | 23 Comments »

Took the family to the Royals-Orioles game Friday night, our first family ballgame of the season. It’s an exciting time. Elizabeth, our oldest, is 6 now, closing in on 7, and she’s beginning to get her bearings around a baseball game. She has started to ask, “What’s the score?” every so often. She constantly wants to know what inning we’re in (partly, of course, because she knows the hot dog race is in the fifth). She knows the difference between the two teams, is beginning to get the basic concept of how runners get on base, what a pitcher is trying to do, what a home run represents.

“Daddy,” she said, “cotton candy just melts right on your tongue.”

“It sure does.”

“It’s amazing! It just melts away. It just disappears!”

“Yes, it does,” I said.

“And also,” she said, “I cannot believe Mr. Hillman intentionally walked Markakis in the fifth with two outs.”

Well, she is my girl. I think I made it brutally clear how much I despise the intentional walk in a recent blog post when I said that I would have fired Toronto manager John Gibbons roughly seven seconds after he intentionally walked Tony Pena Jr. I appreciate now that firing him would have been unfair. Instead, I would like very much to have a few Jaywalking* tickets printed up and send them to managers for bad intentional walks.

*I know someone in Cincinnati who got a Jaywalking ticket. It can be a tough town on those adventurous street crossers. Frank Deford once wrote of the town that Cincinnati is the sort of place where people don’t just follow the Don’t Walk signs — they follow the Walk signs too.

I would begin this week with Trey Hillman’s intentional pass Friday night. I cannot begin to even tell you how many different ways I despised that walk.*

*Yes I can, actually.

The situation: The score was tied 2-2 in the fifth inning. Two men were out. Freddie Bynum was on second base, thanks to his base hit and an error on the pickoff throw. Gil Meche was pitching. Nick Markakis was at the plate. Aubrey Huff was on deck. Markakis was intentionally passed.

I despised the walk because it came in the top half of fifth inning. The stinking fifth inning. The game wasn’t even official yet. As far as I’m concerned there should be a rule — unless there’s a pitcher coming up or some rough American League equivalent — you are not allowed to intentionally walk anybody until the eighth inning.*

*The rule would further state that any football coach who orders a two-point conversion before the middle of the fourth quarter will be immediately suspended and sentenced to spend six weeks in solitary confinement where he will be forced to listen to old Paul Tagliabue press conferences over and over.

I despised the walk because it came with two outs. There was no strategic reason to do it — the only reason you walk Markakis there is because you believe you can’t get him out. I hate this because it’s wimpy, wussy, weak candy-ass baseball. I hate this because it shows no faith in your pitcher or your team. I hate this because it’s telling your offense, “Boys, I don’t really expect us to score again tonight.” I hate this because Nick Markakis, while he’s a fine player, ain’t exactly Ted Williams. I hate this because you’re putting another runner on base, which not only could haunt you but SHOULD haunt you if the baseball gods are paying attention.

I despised the walk because Huff — like Markakis — hits from the left side, which means you don’t even get the nominal “righty-righty” pitcher advantage. Also Huff is a professional hitter with a little power — he’s not Markakis, but he’s not Mark Belanger either. I don’t have the math capabilities necessary but someone reading probably does — if you sent Nick Markakis up 500 times with a runner on second and two outs, and and you Aubrey Huff up 500 times with a runner on first and second and two outs, which scenario do you score more runs. I have a guess.*

*It was brought to my attention afterward that Meche has had more success against Huff than Markakis and this could have played into Hillman’s decision-making. Well, I looked it up. Markakis was 2-12 with five strikeouts (and a homer) against Meche. Huff was 3-18 with seven strikeouts. I’m not really seeing much difference there.

I despised the walk because people pay a lot of money to go to baseball games, and they carry kids through vast parking lots, and they pay $20 for popcorn and lemonade, and maybe they want to see if Gil Meche can get Markakis out in that key situation. I’m all for playing to win the game, but chess has not been an interesting spectator sport since looney-bird Bobby Fischer played Boris Spassky for the right to not have to shave, bathe or say another sane sentence for the rest of his life.

And inevitably I despised the walk because Huff cracked the three-run homer that put away the game — and I cannot help but realize that’s EXACTLY WHAT THE ROYALS DESERVED. That’s the biggest problem of all with a bad intentional walk; it sets you up to subtly pull away from your own team. I know as a fan, it embarrasses me when my team is not tough enough to try and get a player out in a key situation. Sure: I get the intentional walk when it’s in the late innings, when it sets up a crucial double play possibility, when it sets up a dominating pitching matchup, something like that. I don’t often agree with it. But I get it.

But to walk Markakis to face Huff with two outs in the fifth inning of a 2-2 game? I don’t get that one at all. Elizabeth didn’t say that stuff, of course, but she really didn’t like the walk either. It delayed the hot dog race. And that made it very wrong.

* * *

Postscript: A couple of people — including the excellent analyst Rany Jazayerli — point out that this was only Hillman’s second intentional walk of the season. That’s the fewest in baseball. This fact doesn’t make this particular walk any less egregious, but it is certainly worth noting that Hillman seems to be avoiding the intentional walk, and that’s a good thing. In fact, his avoidance of the intentional walk all year makes me wonder even more about this one — maybe Meche wanted the intentional walk there. I don’t know.

I actually think Hillman’s game management early this year has been OK. The team’s not scoring any runs, but to be blunt there is no managing technique that can turn a .309 on-base percentage with 19 home runs in 35 games into a run-scoring machine. True, he has tried to run too much with a team that really lacks speed, and the Royals have really hurt themselves on the bases. But I understand the frustration. There aren’t too many ways for the Royals to score.

* * *

Postscript II: Well, while we’re talking a little Royals baseball …

Emil Brown: .274/.301/.385, 3 homers, 29 RBIs, 21 runs scored.
Jose Guillen: .189/.226/.323, 3 homers, 15 RBIs, 13 runs scored.

Not exactly the clash of the titans, but I think it’s clear who’s out front.

Obviously, it’s early. I don’t think Guillen will hit anything resembling .189 the rest of the year. He’ll get hot, probably sooner than later, and I suspect he will get his average up into the .260s or .270s with 15-20 homers and 75-80 RBIs. Of course, even that is not exactly 12 million worth; this is a continuation of the point that I tried to make during the offseason — guys like Jose Guillen historically don’t age especially well. This is because, well, baseball players IN GENERAL don’t age all that well. Last year, only 36 everyday players in baseball were older than 32 — barely more than one per team — and while some (Oh-wee-oh Magglio,* Chipper, Posada, Thome, Helton) had terrific years, most were pretty average or lousy. This is a tough game to play when you’re 32 or older.

*I’m trying to get the Wizard of Oz chant started for Miguel Olivo in Kansas City — “Oh-wee-oh, O-lee-vo! Oh-wee-oh …”

Well, Guillen turns 32 in one week. And players like him seem to age especially poorly.

Here are the 10 Baseball Reference comps for Jose Guillen:

1. Juan Encarnacion. Same age as Guillen; sadly we’ll never know how we would have aged because his career seems to be over after the horrible on-deck circle incident. I was at that game, by the way, but I did not see it live because precisely when that happened, Scott Baker was throwing a perfect game against the Royals, and I was trying to keep up with that on television.

2. Kevin McReynolds. He was the guy I compared Guillen to — after age 32, McReynolds’ OPS+ were 93, 91 and then he retired.

3. Joe Rudi. Terrific player who hit the wall at 32. After age 32, Rudi’s OPS+ were 90, 64, 79.

4. Mel Hall. One of my favorites. He was out of the game at age 31 — though he did come back for a brief and misguided 26 at bats with San Francisco at 35. He hit .120 and his OPS+ was -26.

5. Jermaine Dye. He is still a story in progress. He had a resurgent and monstrous year when he turned 32, and then he hit .254/.317/.486 last year — though with some home run power. That bandbox in Chicago might help him stay above water for a while. Guillen, meanwhile, moved to one of the tougher home run parks in the game.

6. Dusty Baker. Aged very well, as a hitter — was very good at 32 (132 OPS+) and 33 (130 OPS+) and was productive is a as a platoon player through his 36th year. Is Guillen at all like Dusty Baker, though?

7. Jacque Jones. Off the cliff. Had 87 OPS+ at age 32, and has been released this year at 33.

8. Torii Hunter. He’s about the same age as Guillen and seems to be holding up pretty well so far this year.

9. Luis Gonzalez. An anomaly, he had his best seasons after he turned 31. It is not for us to ask why.

10. George Hendrick. Actually had perhaps his best season at 33, and was valuable as a part-time player at 36.

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