Tuesday, May 6th, 2008...7:01 am
Keltnerizing Fred Lynn
I’ve looked at this a little bit, and I’ve become convinced that the 1975 Boston Red Sox had the best young outfield in baseball history. I mean this in a very specific way. There are a couple of other outfields that, as a unit, have put up better career numbers. There are certainly other young outfields that put up better numbers over one season. But here’s where I think the ‘75 Red Sox outfield is different — I think all three guys have compelling Hall of Fame cases.
The key word to me is “compelling.” I don’t know that I would vote for JIm Rice, Fred Lynn or Dwight Evans as a Hall of Famer. But that’s not the point — that depends on individual standards, where you draw the line, etc. But the one thing that gets lost in the Hall of Fame arguments — and I lose this sometimes too — is that anyone you even mention seriously for the Hall of Fame was a really, really, really good player. Andre Dawson? Really good player. Bert Blyleven? Really good player. Jack Morris? Um. No, I’m joking, he was a really good player. If you are in the Hall of Fame discussion, you are one of the best to ever play this crazy game.
Everyone who cares knows where I stand on Jim Rice as a Hall of Famer, but I have not been as clear in saying that I believe Rice was a really, really, really, really good baseball player. He was a ferocious 1970s slugger, an underrated outfielder and, yes, it’s funny and cliche by now but he was an intimidating guy at the plate. It really is true that when I talk to a 1970s pitcher — not too long ago, I was having this discussion with Paul Splittorff — he will have some “Jim Rice hit a titanic home run off of me” story. Rice is going into the Hall of Fame next year, and that will make a lot of people happy, and it will make some people yelp, and lost in the noise will be this: Rice won’t be anything close to the worst player in there.
Dewey, in my mind, was a better all-around player than Rice. Their career numbers in many ways are awfully similar (same number of hits, Evans had more doubles, more homers, twice as many walks, 70 fewer RBIs but 200 more runs scored, his OPS+ is 127 to Rice’s 128) and Dewey was a better outfielder with that legendary arm. He also made one of the most famous plays in World Series history — that catch of the Joe Morgan blast in Game 6 of the World Series. I’m not arguing if he belongs in the Hall of Fame. My point is only this: Does he have a Hall of Fame case? Sure he does.
Then there’s Lynn. Because Fred Lynn was so good, so young, lots of people have a tendency to look at what his career could have been or should have been and maybe even would have been had it not been for the injuries and getting traded away from Fenway Park and all that. He got about 1,100 fewer career plate appearances than Rice, and because of this his counting numbers are not as good*, though his OPS+ is actually the best of the three at 129.
*Also Jim Rice himself has borderline Hall of Fame counting numbers which is, in my opinion, why he has been kept out of the Hall of Fame this long. I know people have argued that Rice has been kept out because some media members don’t like him, because he was occasionally surly, and all that. Others suggest he’s been kept out because his numbers were inflated by Fenway Park and his on-base percentage isn’t overly impressive. I think all that might be overthinking things. Rice had 382 homers not 400. He hit .298, not .300. He had 2,452 hits, not 3,000. You could even say he drove in 1,451 runs, not 1,500 — though that’s probably not a landmark numbers.
There’s a lot of talk about what the Hall of Fame is, but I think as much as anything it’s a counting house — and if you get 3,000 hits, 500 homers (non-steroid division), 300 wins, you’re in. If not, then your case will be reviewed. Rice has just been under review for a few years.
Interestingly enough, though, I think Lynn might have the most compelling Hall of Fame case of the three. Again — I’m using the word compelling.* Rice has better numbers and a big reputation. Evans has better numbers and an all-around game. But Lynn … well, I’ve been thinking a lot about him lately. I think he’s sort of a combination of the two. He was charismatic and respected like Rice, but he was a great all-around player like Dewey. He was the one guy of the three who I think was, in fact, the very best player in baseball for a stretch of time. Plus, he was the centerfielder.
*You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
For fun, let’s ask those Keltner List Hall of Fame questions that Bill James created a long time ago:
1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball.
Yes and Yes. In 1975 — though in retrospect Joe Morgan was clearly and quite overwhelmingly the best player in baseball — Lynn put up one of the great rookie seasons of all time. He won the MVP, rookie of the year, a Gold Glove and led the league in slugging, OPS, runs, doubles. You could argue plainly that he was the best in the game in 1979. And yes, many people regarded him as the best while he was playing.
2. Was he the best player on his team?
Yes … certainly those two seasons. The Rice-Lynn dynamic was interesting for a lot of reasons — it’s very rare for two players of that caliber to come up at precisely the same time (not even mentioning Dewey) and with one being white and the other being black in Boston in the mid-1970s … like I say, it was a very interesting dynamic. Someone could do a book about that outfield. I think Lynn when healthy was the best player on that team.
3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?
Yes and yes. Here’s a list for you — OPS+ for centerfielders from 1970 to 1993 (last year before the strike and the offensive explosion). Not that OPS+ is the end-all stat, but it gives you an idea of the competition:
1. Fred Lynn, 129.
2. Eric Davis, 128
3. Andy Van Slyke, 125
4. Rick Monday, 124
5. Kirby Puckett, 123
6. Cesar Cedeno, 123
7. Lenny Dykstra, 122
8. Dale Murphy, 121
9. Chet Lemon, 120
10. Amos Otis, 116
The point here is that after the great era of centerfielders — Willie, Mickey, Duke, the Clipper, Doby, all those guys — the 1970s and 80s did not have many Hall of Fame caliber centerfielders. What the 1970s and 1980s DID have were incredible DEFENSIVE centerfielders — Cesar Geronimo, Paul Blair, Garry Maddox, Gary Pettis, Devon White, Rick Manning. Lynn was one of the few who crossed over and was an offensive and defensive force.
4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
Not a great number of races, though he was obviously a huge factor in 1975, he had a pretty good year in the year of the Boston Massacre, and he was good in ‘82 when the Angels won the division. The guy does have a lifetime .407 batting average in his three playoff appearances. And his Red Sox teams consistently won 90+ games, though a lot of that was due to the guy to his right.
5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?
Tough question because Lynn’s prime happened so early — and injuries made him prematurely old. Still, he was an effective 400 at-bat guy when he was 34, 35 and 36 years old. At 37, he was below average, and he was done at 38. He stopped playing center field at 36.
6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
No. There’s a pretty long list in front of him, but a lot of this is because Lynn crashed into a lot of walls and could not stay healthy.
7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?
No. None of his 10 comps on Baseball-Reference are in the Hall of Fame.
8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?
No. He has 1960 hits, 306 homers, and so on. His numbers do compare pretty favorably to some Hall of Famers — Chick Hafey, for instance, or Earle Combs or other players you had no idea were in the Hall of Fame. His numbers also compare favorably to to a few Hall of Fame middle-infielders and catchers. But no, the career numbers are not quite there.
9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
I don’t know about “significantly” better but yeah, he was a terrific outfielder those early years, and he made a lot of amazing catches. And even though nobody really cares, we’ll mention here that he was also good in the All-Star Games, back when the All-Star Game was not a farce.
10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?
Hmm. Good question Bill. If you consider Andre Dawson a centerfielder then I’d say the Hawk is probably a better Hall of Fame candidate because of all those counting numbers. I’m a big Dale Murphy fan. Bernie Williams isn’t eligible yet … I would say Lynn is right there, though.
11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
He was MVP in 1975. He should have been MVP in ‘79, I think. He got votes in two other years, but wasn’t really a factor. The thing with Lynn is that at age 29, he got old. He still had some productive years in California and Baltimore, but only “productive.” As the line goes, he was too young to be so old. Is that a country song? And if not, why not?
12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?
He played in nine All-Star Games and probably had that many All-Star years. I’m not sure where nine All-Star games places him in the Hall of Fame race … Rice had eight All-Star appearances. Dewey had three. I can’t find the list right not, but I’ll bet most of the players with nine All-Star appearances are in the Hall. Lynn did win the All-Star Game MVP in ‘83.
13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?
The young Lynn — absolutely.
14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
I’m not sure … did they pad any walls for Fred Lynn? He hosted This Week in Baseball, I remember.
15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?
Absolutely. How could you not love Fred Lynn? I despised the Red Sox and even I loved Fred Lynn.
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43 Comments
May 6th, 2008 at 8:53 am
What about Jonny, Carlos and Jermaine?
There’s three “compelling” HOF cases there by the time they’re done.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:08 am
I think that sound you all just heard was Paul White’s head exploding at the thought of Fred Lynn having a more compelling HOF case than Jim Rice.
Paul, you alright Buddy?
May 6th, 2008 at 9:24 am
I’m almost certain that the centerfield wall at Fenway was padded as a response to Lynn crashing into it violently during the 1975 World Series.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:25 am
To me, it’s just more the case of showing Rice not quite HoF material, rather than Lynn is. That whole outfield belongs in the hall-of-very-good, unless you want a HoF twice its current size.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:31 am
I’m still alive, Brian, thank you for the concern. I’d even agree with Joe, to a point. I think Lynn’s top two or three years were better than Rice’s or Evans’ (with the exception of Rice’s 1978 season). When he was healthy and motivated, Lynn was, clearly, the best of the three.
The problem I always had with Lynn was that he wasn’t healthy and/or motivated nearly enough. I add “motivated” here because there were many loud grumblings among Red Sox fans and in the Red Sox clubhouse that Lynn was esentially the first version of J.D. Drew - a marvelsoulsy gifted ballplayer with natural, effortless ability who simply would not play on any given day if he had so much as a nagging hangnail bothering him. Sure, some of his injury issues were caused by slamming into walls. But enough were of a mysterious variety that his teammates questioned his desire to play.
Plus, let’s not fail to mention the hammer that is generally used on Rice’s HOF case - Lynn was a completely different ballplayer outside of Fenway Park. For his career, he posted a sick line of .347/.420/.601/1.021 inside Fenway, and .264/.343/.449/.792 everywhere else. That’s an even more drastic split than Rice’s.
Those two factors alone keep me from calling Lynn’s HOF case “compelling”. To me, I don’t think any of these guys has a case that could be called “compelling”, in that I don’t look at their respective bodies of work and feel compelled to support their election to the HOF. As Joe said, I have to consider each of them, and may even end up supporting their election, as I do with Rice and Evans, but I don’t really feel compelled to support any of them.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:03 am
To answer your question, yes, it is a country song: Garth Brooks, “Much Too Young (To Feel This Damn Old)”.
May 6th, 2008 at 11:39 am
I remember Lynn playing around with the fans during batting practice at Comiskey Park when he was an Oriole He was joking around with them and golfing baseballs into the stands. Everybody was laughing and having fun. Then the game started and he was booed louder than Ripken or Murray.
May 6th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Princess Bride reference thrown into a long PosPost? Sweet!
May 6th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
If you ever get the chance–ask Fred Lynn or Jim Rice about Reggie Niles—the third OF in their 1973 Bristol and 1974 Pawtucket triumverate—both will tell you he was the best of the three of them, and met his fate in a sad way…bet Rob Neyer knows nothing of him, because sadly Reggie’s OPS never hit Neyer’s computer screen….
May 6th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Oh, And Jim Edmonds is today’s Freddie Lynn–when it comes to comparable skills and the ability to not stay injury-free
May 6th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
I’ll take Murphy without a second thought, though I’m prejudiced.
May 6th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
Even further evidence of why Jim Rice does not belong in the Hall. Hardly anyone thinks Fred Lynn belongs in the Hall and his body of work is very, very similar to that of Jim Rice.
Oh, and Peanut M&M’s beat Regular M&M’s every day of the week and twice on Sunday. It’s really not close (although I prefer Almond M&M’s the best).
May 6th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
Speaking of stud young outfields….I gotta throw out the Indians troika of the early 90s: Belle, Lofton, Manny.
May 6th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
Dewey was the best of the 3, but yeah that was monster young OF.
May 6th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
In fact, Peanut BUTTER m&m’s rule the m&m galaxy.
Okay #9, I’ll bite — I’ve never heard the name, Google turns up nothing but a name on Bristol’s roster in ‘73 and ‘74, and b-r comes up empty — care to expand at all about Reggie Niles?
May 6th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
A vote for Dark Chocolate Peanut M&Ms.
#15 - In the early 90s my dad ran a Dairy Queen. About that time they launched the Peanut Butter M&M Blizzard. Sales were so bad that they had to put the bags on clearance sale, and finally threw them out.
May 6th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
By the way, Joe, only one Pozerisk in the Deadspin column?
May 6th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Somebody mentioned the Indians earlier, but that reference isn’t complete without a nod to super-4th outfielder (no, not Burnitz or Giles) Bill Selby!
You hit a grand slam off Mo Rivera and we’ll talk about you, too.
May 6th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
#16- one reason among many Peanut Butter are my favorite. They’re delectable AND you can frequently find huge caches of them for cheap.
May 6th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
There’s not much in The Sporting News about Reggie Niles. He had a 19-game hitting streak for Bristol in 1973. He and his two roommates (none of whom played in the major leagues) combined for a .338 average for Winston-Salem through 5-6-72. Other than that, the only mentions of him are in game stories.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
Um, Banny’s given up 13 hits tonight. I’m only looking at the box score, so I’m really hoping Joe’s going to convince me that he got unlucky, but he’s lost three straight decisions and is on his way to the fourth.
May 6th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
Funny thing about baseball - if, in the mid 80’s a Delorean lands on my street and a dude gets out and says he’s from 2008, and that Puckett, Molitor, Murray, Fisk, Boggs, Yount, Perez, Carter and Sandberg were in the Hall of Fame, and Jim Rice wasn’t, I’d have known immediately that it was just a mirage.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
I’d be more surprised if the Delorean guy told me Eckersley was in the Hall.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
Re: #22
Rice could take Perez or Puckett, mmmmaybe. The other seven comparisons are wipeouts. Fictional 1980s You amazes too easily.
May 7th, 2008 at 1:33 am
Who’s Fred Lynn?
May 7th, 2008 at 1:42 am
Freddy Lynn’s country song:
“It Ain’t the Years, Boy, It’s The Miles” by Chris Ledoux
May 7th, 2008 at 6:43 am
Lynn was underrated, but I believe Dewey was a bit more so. Fred Lynn has received a groundswell of support recently due to the new era-adjusted stats that favor guys like him (OPS+, VORP), but Dewey was extremely valuable with the glove and roughly Lynn’s equal at the plate over his career, yet he’s never sniffed Cooperstown. Hell, he’s never sniffed Oneonta.
May 7th, 2008 at 7:12 am
Did he introduce any new equipment?
If I recall correctly, Lynn was one of the first players to use Nautilus and similar weight training equipment to improve his strength. There were a number of stories about it during the ‘79 season.
One of the interesting things about Dewey was that while he was a good hitter while Lynn was with the team, he didn’t become a great hitter until Lynn left for California. I don’t think there’s a cause and effect there, because Evans was notorious for tinkering with his swing, but it makes you wonder what might have happened if he’d figured things out sooner.
May 7th, 2008 at 7:25 am
Good article, but I think you gloss over something to make a point: Davis and Van Slyke were every bit as good as Lynn defensively (Van Slyke was probably better). Davis also stole 277 more bases than Lynn at a rediculous 84% success rate.
If you want to write a “if not for injuries” article, I think Davis would be a better subject.
May 7th, 2008 at 10:31 am
Oh do I love Eric Davis.
While Joe started with “best young outfield,” he really talked about what those guys did with their careers, even after they weren’t playing in the same outfield.
Belle, Lofton, and Manny were great, but by the time Manny came up for good, the other two guys were 27.
Davis, Kal Daniels, and Paul O’Neill were pretty decent for the ‘87-89 Reds. Daniels’ career was ruined by injuries, but as a purely “young outfield,” they were pretty special.
May 7th, 2008 at 11:54 am
“For his career, he posted a sick line of .347/.420/.601/1.021 inside Fenway, and .264/.343/.449/.792 everywhere else. ”
I think that should pretty much sum up Freddy Lynn’s HoF eligibility.
No.
May 7th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
I know at some point around the mid-70’s, pretty sure it was ‘75, Amos Otis crashed into the wall at the K and broke his face. I don’t know when they began padding the walls there, but I’ve always thought that was the impetus.
May 7th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Not to go all historical here, but what about the Red Sox’ famed outfield of Duffy Lewis, Tris Speaker & Harry Hooper? They all were 24 years old when the Red Sox won their first world title in 1912. Also, Speaker and Hooper ARE in the Hall of Fame.
May 7th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
“Lynn was a completely different ballplayer outside of Fenway Park. For his career, he posted a sick line of .347/.420/.601/1.021 inside Fenway, and .264/.343/.449/.792 everywhere else. That’s an even more drastic split than Rice’s”
If Lynn had signed an extension after ‘79, and stayed with the Sox, the Sox win in ‘86, Lynn’s in the Hall, and we areen’t having this discussion.
“Everyone who cares knows where I stand on Jim Rice as a Hall of Famer, but I have not been as clear in saying that I believe Rice was a really, really, really, really good baseball player.”
That warms my heart. Joe, I’ve just forgotten everything bad you’ve ever said about him.
The comparison between Lynn and Edmonds is an apt one, but when the chips are down, Edmonds plays, and Lynn doesn’t.
Evans was a great outfielder, but didn’t figure it out at the plate until Hriniak told him to stop thinking so much. The guy was a rally killer for a few years there.
May 7th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
Early in his career Evans was, admittedly, a mediocre hitter. Later in his career, however, he was teriffic, starting in about ‘81. With his walks, power and defense, he was, during the ’80’s (with the exception of ‘83, Dewey’s down year and Rice’s last real good one), clearly superior to Rice. And as for rally killer, I think averaging over 32 GIDP over a 4 year period with mediocre OBP pretty much defines the term “rally killer”
May 7th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
If Lynn had signed an extension after ‘79, and stayed with the Sox, the Sox win in ‘86, Lynn’s in the Hall, and we areen’t having this discussion.
The Red Sox wouldn’t have had Hendu, so maybe they wouldn’t have won and Donnie Moore would still be alive.
May 7th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Not sure if you saw this, from earlier this year:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/remembering-fred-lynn/
May 7th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
On the subject of young outfields, how about the Bonds, Bonilla, Van Slyke trifecta on the Pittsburgh teams that won three straight divisions but never a pennant?
I’m using “young” somewhat liberally with Van Slyke, I know.
May 8th, 2008 at 6:39 am
Re#24 - “Rice could take Perez or Puckett, mmmmaybe. The other seven comparisons are wipeouts. Fictional 1980s You amazes too easily.”
My point, albeit a tacit one, was that Rice totally dropped off the table at the age of 33. I don’t know whether he was a smoker, or his vision went, but four or five more years of 85% of his normal production gets him to Cooperstown easily.
My main point was that during those first ten or so years of his career, if you were to ask any baseball fan on the street who the top 5 players were, Rice would be on practically every list.
If not, he wouldn’t be on this list;
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/mvp_cya.shtml
I don’t think I’ve ever used MVP shares as a tool, but hey.
My point being that he was always in the MVP conversation, and that during that period of time, he was considered superior to all of the players mentioned in post 22. Granted, most players on that list made their bones in the late 80’s and 90’s but my point stands.
And for the record, I grew up a Cardinal fan in Missouri, I’m not a Boston honk.
May 9th, 2008 at 8:40 am
I’m with Alejandro (#15 and 19) on Peanut Butter M&M’s ruling the M&M galaxy . A bag of them and a box of popcorn at the movies…..whooeee baby!
May 9th, 2008 at 9:55 am
+1, Alejandro….+1
May 9th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
I always liked that Blue Jays OF with Moseby, Bell and Barfield. The Expos with Cromartie, Dawson, and Valentine wasn’t too bad for a couple of years. The A’s with Tony Armas, Dwayne Murphy and Rickey Henderson were not too shabby. None of them were Rice/Lynn/ Evans caliber though.
May 9th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Not sure how we define “young” but the idea that that BoSox OF compares to the Pittsburgh Bonds/Van Slyke/Bonilla one is pretty specious. I say this despite the fact that I hated that Pirate team, that kept beating the Mets, and Dwight Evans is one of my favorite players, stemming originally from Strat-O-Matic in the early 80’s. Some may have considered Lynn the best player in baseball, but Bonds almost unquestionably was. I just see Bonds as so superior to any of the other players under discussion that he easily carries the day despite the fact that Lynn was better than Van Slyke and Dewey better than Bonilla. The A’s OF is underrated to an extent as well for the same reason — Rickey is head and shoulders the best player in most comp sets.
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