Saturday, April 26th, 2008...6:42 am
Proof that the Baseball Gods do exist
One thing I know about myself is that I would be a horrendous baseball owner. I have thrown enough Strat-o-Matic Cards across the room to know that. I would demand trades, second-guess decisions, make outrageous statements to the media, orchestrate player revolts … I mean, seriously, how much fun would it be to be an owner if you DIDN’T do stuff like that?
I say this because on Friday night, if I owned the Toronto Blue Jays, I would have done something that I have envisioned many times … I would have fired a baseball manager right in the middle of a game. It would not have been fair. It would not have been right. They would have ripped me in all the Canadian newspapers. There would have been ”Steinbrennerski Strikes Again“ headlines from Toronto to Vancouver. But I can tell you right now that I would have fired Blue Jays skipper John Gibbons when he intentionally walked Tony Pena in the eighth inning.
Really. Fired him. Right then and there too. I would have called him on the dugout phone and said, ”I need to see you right now.“
Now, I need to say up front that I hate the intentional walk. Hate it. Loathe it. Despise it. I appreciate that there are times for it, and I expect that it ”works“ more often than it fails because pitchers get outs more often than they allow hits and walks. Runners on second and third, one out, tie score, ninth inning, I get the intentional walk there. When managers were walking Barry Bonds every day, it was infuriating to watch, sickening to watch, pathetic to watch, but I at least understood — Bonds had, for any number of reasons, crossed some line where he was officially too good. And so on.
Still. I abhor the strategy in almost every instance except the most obvious ones. It goes counter to every single thing I believe about baseball. The game is about challenging people. The game is about pitcher vs. hitter. The game is also about entertaining millions of fans — let’s not get away from that. And finally, I’d say most of the intentional walks I see are INCREDIBLY STUPID strategic moves. The kind that make my teeth hurt.
I’ve never seen a more offensive walk than Friday night. Never. Toronto trailed the Royals 5-4 in the eighth inning. The Blue Jays trailed 5-4 because that gutty shortostop David Eckstein dropped a double-play throw from the pitcher. No matter. They trailed 5-4, and the Royals had runners on second and third, and there was still one out, and Tony Pena Jr. was at the plate. I mentioned this in the last blog post, I believe — I like Tony Pena a lot. Great kid. Got a lot of the energy and joy for baseball his old man has. And he’s a terrific fielder. And he’s smart enough to adjust, at least I think so. But facts is facts: Tony Pena Jr., at this moment and time, is the worst everyday Major League hitter I’ve ever seen. I mean the worst. There are numbers to back this up — .148/.172/.164 would be three of those numbers — but this is truly a case where seeing is believing. His swing is now longer than the Bill Clinton autobiography. He starts it on a Tuesday, it ends on a Thursday. It lasts longer than that ”Deal or No Deal“ show. It’s a long, long swing.
And with that sort of swing, he’s an out. That’s all. An automatic out. Every so often when a pitcher lets his mind wander, Pena Jr. will fights off a bad pitch, bloop a hit the other way, but it is almost always a mistake pitch. I assume (and hope) that he will make those adjustments I mentioned, shorten the swing, punch a few balls into gaps, and all that. But right now, at this moment, if you don’t make a mistake to Tony Pena Jr., he’s out. Period.
And John Gibbons, after pitcher Scott Downs fell behind Pena 2-0 count, had him walked.
I’m just telling you … I’d have fired somebody. I’m just telling you that intentionally walking Tony Pena Jr. or any other light-hitting middle infielder hitting .150 would be a fireable offense on my team. I’d have that written on a clubhouse sign.
And Gibbons (or whoever) would tell me how the walk set up the double play, tell me how by walking Pena they got the lefty-lefty matchup they wanted, tell me that in that situation, down two balls, you HAVE to walk Pena because any major league hitter becomes dangerous ahead 2-0 in the count and blah blah blah. Thank you. Please have your desk cleared by 9 a.m. tomorrow morning.
In this case, the Baseball Gods were as offended as I was, and the next batter — David DeJesus — scoffed at the whole leftty-lefty thing and drilled a single that scored two runs. Then Alberto Callaspo hit a single that scored another. The Royals snapped their losing streak and won 8-4. It was just. It was right. I’m not an owner, and it’s good thing. All I can say is: I implore you, Canada. Somebody stop John Gibbons before he walks again.
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46 Comments
April 26th, 2008 at 7:42 am
Canada speaking. Motion passes.
April 26th, 2008 at 7:44 am
My husband and I were vastly entertained by that intentional walk. We’re still chuckling about it this morning. So it did have some entertainment value–of a different sort than you mentioned.
April 26th, 2008 at 7:50 am
Here in Atlanta I screamed the same thing to my wife, well really to the tv, but she seemed mildly amused anyway and also echoed Joe’s sentiments about liking Tony Pena since he played for the Braves briefly and seemed nice. But really, wtf, are kidding John Gibbons that is the worst tradeoff possible and it bit you in the ass bad. If you got Pena, and then DeJesus later, you face Soria with a chance. Even their commentators were sick over it.
April 26th, 2008 at 8:11 am
Just for fun, career numbers against lefties:
Tony Pena: .257/.276/.341
David DeJesus: .266/.343/.380
Not the best time to chase the lefty-lefty matchup.
For my money, the worst intentional walk I’ve ever observed came in a Cubs-Mets game last year. Bottom 9, tie game, Reyes on second and Endy Chavez on first, Wuertz (a right-hander) pitching. Piniella orders an intentional walk to Carlos Beltran to bring up Carlos Delgado. Note that there’s no platoon advantage gained here, since Delgado’s a lefty. Then note that the walk moved Reyes from second to third. Lou was saying that Beltran had a better chance of getting a long single or XBH than Delgado had of reaching base at all (or drawing a wild pitch).
Delgado walked, forcing in the winning run.
April 26th, 2008 at 8:13 am
I had the same reaction. If you pitch to Pena, you’re virtually assured of an out, and what’s more, it will probably be a nonproductive out. Not that I’m complaining though. Gibbons can walk Pena all he wants.
April 26th, 2008 at 8:20 am
I (watching updates online) was on the phone w/ my dad (in KC, watching game on TV, and he said, “They just walked Pena intentionally!” I told him that he must have missed something, that Pena probably got hit by a pitch. Then my gamecast reloaded: Tony Pena, Jr. walked intentionally. I still didn’t believe it, until my dad heard Ryan recapping the inning. I was thinking the exact same thing you wrote, Joe. Any team that walks Tony Pena on purpose deserves to lose the game, perhaps more than any team ever.
April 26th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Yesterday when you mentioned Tony Pena’s numbers, I had to look them up to see just how low his OPS+ would be. It was -20. I didn’t think negatives were possible for non-pitchers. But with that walk (his second of the year), he’s up to -9! And his OBP is now higher than his Slugging.
I’d find this whole siutation a lot funnier except I can’t shake the feeling that if the Mets were playing the Royals, Willie Randolph would have done the same thing.
April 26th, 2008 at 9:31 am
Thank God for stupidity.
April 26th, 2008 at 9:45 am
Hey Joe, love the post. Agree wholeheartedly!!
Question: When is Bill James or one of the myriad of brilliant Joaldo posters going to come up with a managerial winshare formula? Be nice, if possible to see such a metric.
Does one exist?
April 26th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Goodness gracious, that was the worst intentional walk I’ve ever seen. I was still in denial after he took the base, thinking, “Maybe they just pitched out too many times. This can’t possibly be an intentional walk.” I was still in denial on the ride home from the K. When I woke up this morning, I was convinced it was all a wacky, hilarious dream.
It wasn’t.
MY PREDICTION: This will be the year TPJ finally surpasses Angel Berroa as a minor OBP deity.
April 26th, 2008 at 11:14 am
Best quote from the game:
“This shows what type of team we are,” DeJesus said. “We’ve lost seven in a row and we could have bent over after that three run inning that they had. In the eighth inning, everyone did something right.”
Now bent over joins the pantheon of sport cliche’. “We took it one game at a time, gave a 100%, and then the Jays bent over.”
No, no, no, a 1000 times no.
April 26th, 2008 at 11:40 am
Neyer talks about Bill James’ managerial stat on ESPN . . .
April 26th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Amen! I hate the intentional walk (along with most traditional baseball strategy).
April 26th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Thanks John (12) for the tip - decent article. I’ll check out James’ site for how he derives his “expected wins”.
April 26th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
You’re right, Joe, an owner should be able to stipulate a few fireable offenses. I would cut any player who slid into first base.
April 26th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
TJ’s hitting problem is so obvious I can not believe Barnett hasn’t straightened it out yet or anyone else noting/commenting on it.
HE COCKS HIS BAT BELOW HIS SHOULDER WITH THE PITCHER IN THE WIND UP.
TJ is NOT Gary Sheffield and there is no mystery why he cant get the bat around. The bat needs to get elevated well above the shoulders for him to get in the hitting zone. If it’s a nervouse habit to bounce the bat like that, then fix it now. I rant at the TV with every at bat.
April 26th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
About the intentional walk. I had to miss the game on TV and read about it the next day. I must have re-read that part a half dozen times. Even cleaned my glasses once. I mean I had no context of the situation or of the results that followed. I just couldn’t believe TJ would EVER be intentionally walked. Talk about a brain fart on Gibbons part.
April 26th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
The first two pitches were in anticipation of a squeeze. Tony Pena, Jr. when he had a plate appearance last season in which the count got to 2-0, hit .350/.447/.600.
April 26th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
GregJP: He had 32 at-bats in that scenario.
SSS
April 26th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
The Lord gives, and the Lord taketh away. The Lord has taken away the bad coaches and managers from KC, and given them to other teams—the Blue Jays apparently being one of those others. - TL
April 27th, 2008 at 9:09 am
Maybe they were just trying to make up for all the walks Frank Thomas took with him when they cut him?
April 27th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
“I would cut any player who slid into first base.”
I would too, although I’ve wondered why the same thinking doesn’t apply at home plate. Why aren’t players taught to just run full speed through the dish?
I’ve always felt that on the famous Derek Jeter cutoff-and-flip in the 2001 NYY-OAK division series Jeremy Giambi was right to try to tun through the plate. He was just too slow.
It’s confusing to me how you can get from point a to b faster by sliding into point b than by running through it. You don’t see Olympic sprinters sliding through the line of the 100 meters.
April 27th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
I was at the game Friday night and I couldn’t stop laughing when they thought Tony first was going to lay down the Suicide Squeeze. Whoever did their scouting reports on him should be fired. He hasn’t put a good bunt down all season on the first pitch. The runner would be dead at the plate, or doubled off on a popup bunt. Second, when they decided to just put him on to get to the better matchup in DeJesus (who had over a .400 BA at the time) I laughed so hard I almost cried.
This is the bonehead move that the Royals always made in the past, but not this time, no sirree. And the Blue Jays were PUNISHED for their sins.
April 27th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
Mikey,
The point of sliding usually isn’t to get there faster, it’s to make it more difficult for the defense to tag him.
April 27th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
Snowman’s right.
When coming home, sliding makes it harder to put the tag on. If you cross the plate standing up, there’s a lot of surface there to tag.
On other bases, sliding lets you get to the base at almost full speed without overrunning the base.
First base is the only base where it isn’t a tag play and there is no need to worry about running past the base. Therefore, sliding into first is almost as dumb as intentionally walking TPJ. (but not quite)
April 28th, 2008 at 6:41 am
A couple of years ago I was at a game when the Royals were in one of their usual funks, but it was close and late in this particular game and the situation called for a bunt. The backup catcher was up (I forget who it was, but one of those interchangeable backup catchers that makes the league minimum and barely hits his weight). The catcher pops the first bunt attempt into the air and it was caught easily for an out - embarrassing. I thought at the time that Baird should have called down to the dugout and ordered that the catcher be pulled from the game and then told to pack his stuff and get out.
I know you can’t really do that because the guy was respected by his teammates or whatever, but it would have sent a message to a team that needed to get some messages.
April 28th, 2008 at 7:06 am
Remember when the Jays and Royals were on top of the world? Still don’t forgive Jim Sundberg but wish we were looking down on a few more teams!
Bring back Cito.
April 28th, 2008 at 8:42 am
A 2-0 count is an enormous advantage, even to a horrible hitter as Pena is. Click on my name for more.
April 28th, 2008 at 8:44 am
Yeah, I know that’s the thinking, I’m just not sure I buy it.
April 28th, 2008 at 10:33 am
For his career, Tony Pena’s got a .302/.426/.488 line after a 2-0 count, though admittedly that’s only in 54 plate appearances. Still, he basically turns from an automatic out into Brian Giles or Todd Helton. I’m not saying you’re wrong, as I probably would have taken my chances with Pena on the 2-0 count rather than DeJesus with the bases juiced, I just though you might not have considered that.
April 28th, 2008 at 10:48 am
Someone on my blog is suggesting that a 2-0 count is the same as an 0-0 count, if the result of a 4-0 count is still win-neutral (as would be the case in most IBB situations). So, it’s possible that it doesn’t turn anyone into a great hitter, if the pitcher will continue to pitch at 2-0 and 3-0 as if he was at 0-0. Something to think about…
April 28th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Nice article, but here’s the real proof the baseball gods exist..
The Red Sox winning the World Series.. twice!
nuff said!
April 28th, 2008 at 11:39 am
This is how much this blog site means to me. I was watching the Canadian telecast of that game, rather casually, since I’m not, and never have been a Blue Jays fan, though I will confess to a long term soft spot of the Expos, even though I’ve been a Red Sox fan, thanks to Yaz in ‘67 replacing Sandy Koufax (I was a left handed little league pitcher) as my baseball hero/god. (Should I have pozterisked that last sentence?) At any rate, the first thing I thought of was “Joe Posnanski must be a) thinking who incredibly stupid that was, and/or b) laughing uncontrollably. I love this blog. I love that I’m now looking for Royals results and box scores immediately after I see the Red Sox ones. Thanks Joe.
And Jeremy Giambi should have slid - he had full view of Jeter making his play and flipping the ball and quite obviously a slide was his best choice.
April 28th, 2008 at 11:42 am
I would have fired Gibbons two years ago, when he was going around offering to fight my players. The guys I pay xx million dollars a year to so they can be healthy and play a game. And he wants to fight and potentially injure them.
But yeah, walking a guy who’s making an out 83% of the time is beyond crazy. Ofcourse, at least 70% of all managers in baseball have absolutely no business being managers in baseball.
April 28th, 2008 at 11:50 am
“The catcher pops the first bunt attempt into the air and it was caught easily for an out - embarrassing. I thought at the time that Baird should have called down to the dugout and ordered that the catcher be pulled from the game and then told to pack his stuff and get out.
I know you can’t really do that because the guy was respected by his teammates or whatever, but it would have sent a message to a team that needed to get some messages.”
That’s kinda harsh, isn’t it? It’s one thing to can a guy because he missed a sign, because that’s just plain laziness. But firing him for failing on a bunt? You’d quickly be left with no players. If the pitcher throws a high slider, you’d better be one mean bunter to try and get that thing down right.
Also, typically your backup catcher is on your team because he can catch and spell your catcher a day a week. Not because he’s the world best bunter.
April 28th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
It reminds me of a year or 2 ago..Opening day at Citizens bank park. Charlie manual Intentionally walks Albert Pujols(sp) to pitch to Scot Rolen….2nd pitch grand slam. the fire Charlie chants started again.
April 28th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
How is it quite obvious that a slide was Giambi’s best option? Posada tagged him at the ankle. The slide would have done nothing to avoid the tag. He only would have reached the plate more slowly than he did.
April 28th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
Creston:
You are right, of course, but the Royals have been one of the fundamentally worst teams in the big leagues for a while now and the failed bunt in that situation just seemed to exemplify this shortcoming. A team like the Royals, who are always behind other teams from a talent standpoint, need to do all of the little things right to have a chance. My suggestion was an extreme and overly-drastic attempt to remedy this situation, which is why (like Joe) I wouldn’t make a good manager/GM/owner.
April 28th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Watching the game Friday night, I had to go answer a phone just when Pena was at bat. I got back just in time to see ball four sail wide. I could only think it was some sort of bizarrely, blooper-reel-wide wild pitch. I still can’t make it settle into my brain that someone actually walked Tony Pena Jr. intentionally, three days later.
April 28th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Mikey - bad word choice on the “obviously” on my part - better to have used “IMO” - which is that Posada swept at him, and had he slid, with a hook slide, he would have been under the tag.
April 28th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
I saw the Nats do something similarly stupid and should have had Manny Acta fired in game. The Cubs reached a 2nd and 3rd, 1 out, down 3-2 in the 8th. Geo Soto was coming to the plate (0-3, 3 K), Ronny Cedeno on deck, and the pitcher’s spot third. Soto has been hitting OK this season, but is still a young catcher who hadn’t touched a ball all night. On deck is Ronny Cedeno, a tough guy to double up (who was also batting .800 with 11 RBI with the bases loaded THIS SEASON).
Naturally, Acta chose to walk Soto, who finished the series a staggering 0-8, 8 K and 1 IBB, and then for good measure, bring in a reliever to walk in the tying run.
The Nats deserved to lose another, but earned a reprieve, as Wil Nieves (30 yrs old, 0 HR since making his MLB debut in 2002) chose a good opportunity to pop his cherry.
Just another manager who has no grasp of the game, just does what he thinks everybody expects him too.
April 28th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
John Gibbons = Buddy Bell. Old baseball men think they are playing the percentages with the left-left matchup, but as someone noted above, DeJesus does quite a bit better against them than Pena. And if I had time to look it up, I’ll bet those numbers were affected by an abysmal rate against lefties when he played through a hurt shoulder a couple years ago.
Now back to the Buddy Bell comparison. I have to admit, I miss the guy. Two years ago the Royals were playing the Reds in Cincy, tie game in the 8th, Adam Dunn coming to the plate with a runner on and down by 1. Who does Bell bring in? Jimmy Gobble. Good call, right? Nope. As Gobble trots in, Dunn’s splits flash on the screen. He hits .100 higher against lefties with even more power. I predict to my buddy a dong, Todd Coffey close-out and Royals loss. Like clockwork, Dunn hit the first pitch from Gobble out on a line in under a second. Coffey closes it out, Royals lose another thanks entirely to Buddy. At least if a team is going to be bad, we should have the privilge of cyncially predicting boneheaded moves by the manager.
April 28th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
THANK YOU for trashing an intentional walk. I didn’t see the game, but feel the same way about a stupid IBB once every two days or so. It is the dumbest strategy in baseball, has been for years, and Bill James needs to do research and find out how often it fails. I would guess 40 percent of the time.
April 28th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
1) I agree with Mikey, Giambi didn’t deserve the heat he got over not sliding. Jeter however, didn’t get the heat he deserved for being totally out of position to cover second.
2) #41, I dislike the intentional pass, but Acta is totally justified in your example. Geovany Soto might have been struggling at the time, but he’s got a career line of .316/.392/.535 who had an OPS over 1.000 in the minors in 2007. Ronny Cedeno on the other hand has a career line of .254/.283/.361. There is simply no reasonably way to crucify Manny Acta for preferring to face Cedeno over Soto with the game on the line. Acta, more than any other manager in the game, imo, has shown an understanding of trying to gain platoon split advantages, properly valuing outs, and in general being open to rational baseball moves. He’s not perfect, and he’ll make mistakes, but it’s because he’s human, not a bad manager.
April 30th, 2008 at 8:46 am
Probably the discussion here is over, but I mentioned during the HOF debate that using IBB to discuss HOF candidates is a ridiculous metric, because the IBB would appear to be about 5000 times more prevalent in today’s game then at any other time in the history of baseball.
“Old baseball men” may be an easy way to pin somebody with excessive use of the IBB, but the truth is the IBB was never used as much in the past as it has been the last 10 to 15 years.
April 30th, 2008 at 11:18 am
Amen, Joe! I was watching that game and laughed out loud in disbelief when the last guy in the league that should receive an IBB had one ordered up. Bring the infield in, ’cause the next batter’s 3 times more likely to drive in someone.
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