You may know that Cleveland’s C.C. Sabathia won his 100th game in 2007, and as such became the first pitcher in 16 seasons (and only the third born in the last 50 years) to win 100 major league games before turning 27. It should be mentioned right up front that this is not technically accurate — Sabathia actually won his 100th game a couple of months after he turned 27 (on July 21st).
But baseball stats judge you by how old you are on June 30th — it’s sort of like like how they judge thoroughbred racehorses. Everybody has one birthday. So, Sabathia was 26 on June 30th, according to the numbers he’s considered to be 26 all season.*
*And I’ll be 41 this whole season, which you will note is old. This is a depressing year for me. Not only am I older than every single member of the Royals — that almost goes without saying anymore, unless Julio Franco stops by — I’m also one month older than Royals general manager Dayton Moore. Also, it appears I really will have to do that colonoscopy at some point. Isn’t there any way to get back to, say, 35. I was OK with 35.
Anyway, we’re getting away from the point, which is still that Sabathia has won a lot of games at a very young age and, as such, it would seem he has a very real shot to win 300 games, maybe even more. That’s certainly what I would have thought. And then I just caught a quick passing mention in Baseball’s Gold Mine that showed, in fact, that brilliant young pitchers are, in fact, VERY UNLIKELY to win 300 games in the big leagues. Maybe it’s a coincidence. But take a look at the last 10 pitchers to have won 100 games by their 26th year.
1. Dwight Gooden.
Wins by 26: 132.
Total wins: 194 wins.
Well, we all know this sad story. Doc never won more than 12 games in a season after his 26th year — and he only managed 12 once. He is the pitching tragedy of my lifetime — he was certainly the most electrifying young pitcher I ever saw. That 1985 season — 24-4, 1.53 ERA, 268 Ks, 228 ERA+ — is one for the ages.
Here’s a little tidbit I love passing along: in 1985, Gooden allowed three runs in six innings against St. Louis in the opener. His next time out he threw a shutout — and from that point his ERA NEVER rose above 2.00. It got as high as 1.89 in late May, but it went back down from there. Gooden’s four losses were all what we now would call quality starts — 7 innings, two runs; 8 innings, 2 runs; 7 innings, 3 runs; and 6 innings, 2 runs. He also had two nine inning, 0 run no-decisions. So as good as the year was, it could have looked even better.
2. Fernando Valenzuela
Wins by 26: 113
Total wins: 173
Had a couple of OK seasons after hitting 27 years old — won 13 twice — but nothing approaching great. Looking back, it’s understandable — look at those innings. He threw 285, 257, 261, 272, 269, 251 in the six years leading up to his 27th year. It’s no wonder he broke down. I’m never been a big fan of pitch counts, but for guys like Tommy Lasorda (and proteges like Dusty Baker) they might not be a bad thing*.
*In 2003, under Dusty, Mark Prior threw 120-plus pitches nine different times — five of those in September alone (he finished the year throwing 131 pitches at Pittsburgh, and 133 more at home against Pittsburgh). That same year, Kerry Wood threw 120+ pitches 13 times, including four after August 27 (he also had a 141 pitch outing against St. Louis). Remember that Wood was only 26 and had already dealt with arm problems, and Prior was only 22 and pitching his first full year in the Majors.
Here’s what strikes me about it: This was only five years ago. And yet, the landscape has changed so much that something like that happening now (even with Dusty back as manager) seems almost unimaginable — 2003 looks almost like the days before child labor laws or something. Heck, these days a manager gets crucified and has to explain himself for allowing a young pitcher to throw 120-plus pitches even ONCE (and if ANYONE let a young pitcher throw 141 pitches, he would get taken away in a straitjacket).
Take a quick look at the 25 and under pitchers from last season:
Fausto Carmona (23): Threw 120+ pitches once (in a 9 inning shutout)
Justin Verlander (24): Threw 120+ pitches twice.
Oliver Perez (25): Threw 120+ pitches once.
Cole Hamels (23): Threw 120+ pitches zero times.
King Felix (21): Threw 120+ pitches once.
Adam Wainwright (25): Threw 120+ pitches once.
Tom Gorzelanny (24): Threw 120+ pitches twice.
Jered Weaver (24): Threw 120+ pitches zero times.
Scott Kazmir (23): Threw 120+ pitches zero times.
Dustin McGowan (25): Threw 120+ pitches once.
This is not to say that Dusty Baker was wrong (though I think he was) or that the current way of handling things will keep young pitchers healthier (which we don’t know yet). The point is that in just five years, perceptions have changed immensely. I think that, yes, even in 2003, everyone thought Dusty was abusing his pitchers. Now, though, it looks absolutely monstrous.
3. Frank Tanana
Wins by 26: 102.
Total Wins: 240
Had to totally reinvent himself from a Sam McDowell type to a Jamie Moyer precursor to get to 240 wins. I will write a full Tanana post at some point this summer because he’s the favorite pitcher of a friend of mine, but it’s worth saying that in 1977 Tanana threw 14 consecutive complete games (five of them were shutouts) and considering that he was a strikeout guy, an effort pitcher at that time, that had to mean a LOT of pitches on a 23-year-old arm. I mean, seriously, 14 consecutive complete games. Those managers back then were like the slave masters in “The Ten Commandments.” I wonder if they had whips.
4. Bert Blyleven
Wins by 26: 122
Total Wins: 287
Blyleven, like Tanana, had two very distinct periods in his career. He missed almost the entire 1982 season (31st year). Unlike Tanana, though, he did it more or less the same way — with lotsa lotsa curveballs. Blyleven actually came closer to winning a Cy Young Award in the years after his injury — he twice finished third. And even with his incredible longevity, of course, Bly still did not win 300, and because of this and other absurdities he’s still not in the Hall of Fame.
5. Don Gullett
Wins by 26: 105
Total Wins: 109
We’ll have lots to say about Don Gullett in The Machine, my 2009 book about the Big Red Machine (no link for that yet, but we still have a link for THIS). In 1975, Gullett went 15-4 with a 2.42 ERA despite missing more than two months with an injury. Most people around the team will tell you he would have been runaway Cy Young Winner — and probably would have won 23 to 25 games — had he not gotten hurt.
6. Vida Blue
Wins by 26: 110
Total Wins: 209
He was Dwight Gooden before Dwight Gooden … and how does that trivia question go again? Who is the last American League switch hitter to win the MVP award? I believe that’s right. It’s Vida Blue. … how about Dick Williams throwing Vida 312 innings at 21 years old. Holy cow. Between April 13 and July 21, Blue started 22 games and threw 196 2/3 innings — I mean seriously, that’s 200 innings in three months. At some point, the government has to step in. Vida threw 17 complete games, and two of the five non-complete games he pitched 11 innings.
Vida obviously had his issues but, you know. they might have handled that a little better. And then they wondered why he was hurt the next year.
7. Joe Coleman
Wins by 26: 105
Total Wins: 142
He won 20 games as a 24 year old (286 innings), won 19 as a 25 year old (280 innings), won 23 as a 26 year old (288 innings). The next year he threw another 285 innings, but they were ineffective, and the next year he threw 201 brutal innings, and that was really about that.
8. Catfish Hunter
Wins by 26: 115
Total Wins: 224
Well, here’s our first Hall of Famer … though most would tell you he was a very, very borderline choice. Hunter’s career path is a little bit different — he actually threw ridiculous innings after he turned 27 — the next three seasons he threw 318, 328, 298. Yep, that finished him.
9. Jim Palmer
Wins by 26: 100
Total Wins: 268.
And here’s our first legitimate, no doubt Hall of Famer. You almost wonder if Palmer is an anomaly: He threw a ton of innings and he was still very, very good from 29-32. He did fade pretty dramatically after that — though he had a nice comeback year at 36. Still, we do not have a 300 game winner on the board yet, do we?
10. Denny McLain
Wins by 26: 117
Total Wins: 131
Obviously this is another guy with issues … but from a pure health perspective he blew up after throwing back-to-back 300-inning seasons. I wonder how many guys in the live ball era were able to sustain 300-innning workloads for more than a couple of years in a row. McLain’s last really good year was actually his 25th year — in fact, among the post-deadball era guys McLain’s 114 wins by his 25th year trails only Dwight Gooden. Here’s the Top 5, including deadballers.
1. Walter Johnson, 151
2. Christy Mathewson, 150
3. Dwight Gooden, 119
4. Joe Wood, 117
5. Denny McLain, 114.
And here are the next few 100 game winners by 26 (with career totals):
Milt Pappas, 110 wins by 26;
209 total wins.
Don Drysdale, 123 wins by 26;
209 total wins
Robin Roberts, 114 wins by 26
286 total wins
Hal Newhouser*, 141 wins by 26
207 total wins
*I had no idea that he was a cousin of Ken Macha. Is this something I should have known?
Bob Feller, 112 wins by 26
266 total wins*
*But, of course, if it had not been for the war, if I’m not mistaken, Bob would have won 948 games.
Dizzy Dean, 121 wins by 26
150 total wins*
*That’s always shocking isn’t it? Dizzy Dean only won 150 games.
Mel Harder, 111 wins by 26
223 total wins
Lefty Gomez, 101 wins by 26
189 total wins
Wes Ferrell, 116 wins by 26
193 total wins
Pete Donohue, 109 wins by 26
134 total wins
We’ll stop with players players born in the 20th Century. As you can see — none of them won 300 games. Surprisingly few of them even came close. In fact, if you want to find a player who won 100 games as a very young pitcher and held on to win 300, you have go all the way back to Walter Johnson.
I’m not at all sure what this means. But I do think it’s fair to say that it means something … and that planning for the C.C. Sabathia 300 victory party might be a bit premature.
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43 Comments, Comment or Ping
D.B. Cooper
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/356407_cooper26.html?source=mypi
Uh oh.
–
Great point about Dusty and perceptions. Have you read what he said to Hal McCoy yesterday? He said that with the Cubs, he regularly removed the “young guys” after 5 innings of shutout ball — due to a 100 pitch limit — then had to defend himself to the media for doing so. Is Sinbad available to fact-check this story?
Mar 25th, 2008
Adam
C.C. could be the first member of the 300-300 club. That is, wins and pounds.
Mar 25th, 2008
Aaron M.
The Bill James Handbook has him at an 8% chance of reaching 300 wins. The only pitchers higher are Randy Johnson, Johan Santana, Smoltz, Jamie Moyer, Roy Oswalt, B Webb, Mussina, Pettitte, and Lackey.
Just looking at the numbers though seems to me Moyer is unrealistic (he’s 44, needs 70 wins, he’s not going to pitch til he’s 55). Smoltz needs 93 and is 40. Mussina is 38 and needs 50, and Pettitte is 3 years younger, but 49 more wins back of Mussina. I guess Mussina and Pettite aren’t as unrealistic as the others though.
The list should be RJ, Santana, Oswalt, B Webb, Mussina, Pettite, Lackey, CC.
More to the point of the column, I think CC could be good for a long time. He doesn’t seem to be a flameout, or an arm problem waiting to happen. If I had to bet money on a guy under 30 hitting 300 wins it would be Santana or Sabathia. Santana is way more likely to be first pitching for a team like the Mets though. In fact, I bet they both hit the number.
Mar 25th, 2008
Jeremy
Wow, that’s flat-out stunning. If you had asked me an hour ago what the track record of pitchers who won 100 games by their 26th year would be, I would have been coyly pessimistic, but I never would have imagined a list almost devoid of Hall of Famers and 300 game winners.
I can only draw one conclusion. Matt Cain will win 300 games and go to the Hall of Fame.
Mar 26th, 2008
Snowman
Very interesting stuff, but I have to admit that I kept waiting for an Emil Brown Pozterisk to rear its head.
Now I’ll have to go back and reread it without that expectation.
Mar 26th, 2008
El Lay Dave
Thank the stars for baseball-reference.com. Here’s a list of all 300+ IP seasons since 1919, the year Babe Ruth ended the dead ball era. There are 153 of them; the list is alphabetical.
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/VEGx
The last 300+ inning pitcher was Steve Carlton in 1980 (at age 35!); Dallas Green was old school!
The longest consecutive run, by my eyeballs, seems to be Robin Roberts from 1950-1955, and he was pretty darn effective.
Mar 26th, 2008
MonkeyHawk
Actually, Ray Chapman ended the dead ball era.
Mar 26th, 2008
El Lay Dave
If we’re going to go tacky, let’s go for the throat here. Has Mike Coolbaugh revived the dead ball era?
Mar 26th, 2008
gogiggs
Except that Ray Chapman did sort of end the dead ball era. His deadly beaning was a catalyst for the rule that kept fresh, clean baseballs in play, on the theory that he might not have seen the pitch that killed him in time to avoid it. Before that baseballs were not routinely replaced and large portions of games were played with balls that were scuffed, discolored and deadened from being hit. MonkeyHawk *may* have been going for the morbid joke, I have no way to know, but his statement is substantially correct.
Regarding C.C. and is chances for 300 wins: obviously, the odds are against any given 27 year old winning 300. I’d bet against it if I had to bet.
That said, I don’t think he is really a good comp with those other guys because, up until last year, the Indians have really protected him from heavy workloads. He only topped 200 innings once before last season and he’s never topped 120 pitches more than twice in a season. Even last year when his innings went up to 240+, his pitch counts were almost all in the 90-110 range. The Indians even took him out of one game after 8 innings and 100 pitches despite the fact that he was throwing a 6-hit shutout.
I know the Indians are not the only club, probably weren’t the first club, to start trying to protect their young pitchers by carefully managing his workload, but if C.C. does end up winning 300 games, he might end up being seen as the starting pitcher equivalent of Bruce Sutter, in terms of impact on how young starters are used.
Mar 26th, 2008
Mauichuck
I’m not worried about CC’s arm, it’s his knees that are in jeopardy - 300 pounds crashing down 100 times a game is what’s gonna end CC’s career .
Mar 26th, 2008
Oddibe Kerfeld
I watched some of the game yesterday morning from Tokyo before heading to work. I think it was around 6:15 am cdt when Selig told the ESPN broadcasters that “you won’t recognize Major League Baseball in the next 10 years.” I know this is hyperbole and he was speaking about opening up China and other markets to baseball, but shouldn’t someone do a story about this? This is after all the commissioner of the Selig Steroid era. I don’t want MLB to change so that I won’t recognize it in 10 years. I think most baseball fans don’t want that to happen. Hasn’t Bud done enough damage already? What more could he do to make the game unrecognizable? Also, I’m all for baseball in Japan, but does it have to be the opening games? As a kid I lived for opening day and would rush home after school to turn on the games. Now the games are coming on when kids are still asleep. Does anyone really feel like the baseball season has started?
Mar 26th, 2008
Andy
Interesting article (Is that what these are called? Articles? What’s the proper terminology? Post?). I wonder if maybe too much weight is given to “100 wins” because it’s a nice round number. Clemens and Maddux (Greg not Mike) had by my count, correct me if I miscounted, 95 wins prior to turning 27. Both of them reached 300 wins.
I definitely think you’re on to something though. Keep it coming brother, this is great stuff.
Mar 26th, 2008
Bowzer
Hey Joe, ease up on Bob Feller. I know he can be a braggart, and sometimes an a-hole, but he may have had 80-100 more wins if not for his time away in the military. And who knows what Ted Williams final numbers would be.
Just wondering—are all of the players from the Big Red Machine still living?
Mar 26th, 2008
TC
Scanning B-R’s Play Index a bit, it would seem that the biggest reason pitchers with 100 wins at 26 don’t make it to 300 wins is injuries. The guys were severely overworked at precious young ages, and by the time they were 30, they were toast. A few (like Blyleven) were just plain unlucky.
Looking at the last few pitchers to reach 300 wins, and to see how many wins they had at 26, we get this:
Pitcher - Wins at age 26
Roger Clemens - 95
Tom Glavine - 73
Greg Maddux - 95
Nolan Ryan - 69 (and 70 losses!)
Steve Carlton - 77
Don Sutton - 83 (85 losses)
Phil Niekro - 2 (3 losses)
Tom Seaver - 95
Gaylord Perry - 24 (30 losses)
Warren Spahn - 29
Early Wynn - 47 (53 losses)
Lefty Grove - 23 (25 losses)
Pete Alexander - 69
I suppose we’ve gone back far enough. It seems to me that, generally, pitchers with more than 50 wins are the best bets, whereas at about 100 wins, the pitcher has probably been overworked.
Mar 26th, 2008
Mikey
Good post Oddibe. I agree that comment by Selig deserves some follow-up. I certainly don’t want the league to be unrecognizable in 10 years.
I fully agree that it doesn’t feel like the season has started, and while I see a certain value in playing games that count in Japan I also feel like not enough is being said about how this undermines Opening Day, which is one of baseball’s greatest assets.
On balance, I actually like Selig and the job he’s done more than most fans, but that comment gives any fan reason to be uneasy.
Mar 26th, 2008
MikeJ
The Selig line was probably a throwaway, but in Bud’s defense he probably figured that nobody was watching anyways.
Mar 26th, 2008
Andrew
There are a few Big Red Machine members who have passed on
Clay Kirby (1974 and 1975) in 1991
John Vukovich (38 ab with the 1975 Reds) last year
Willie Smith (55 ab with the 1971 Reds) in 2006
Bo Belinsky (3 games pitched with the 1970 Reds) in 2001
Roger Freed (6 ab with the 1974 Reds) in 1996
Greg Garrett (2 games pitched with the 1971 Reds) in 2003
Joe Hague (1972 and 1973 Reds) in 1994
John Noriega (8 games pitched with the 1970 Reds) in 2001
Jim McGlothlin (1970-1973 Red) in 1975 (leukemia)
Mar 26th, 2008
Paul White
I’m of the opinion that WWII actually lengthened Feller’s career.
He pitched four full seasons prior to entering the service after the 1941 season. In those seasons, he averaged 41 games, including 37 starts, and 309 innings. His workload of innings was actually trending up -
277.2
296.2
320.1
343.
In his first full season back, 1946, he threw an incredible 371.1 innings as a 27-year old, and, sure enough, never again posted an ERA+ over 130, and never again cracked the 300-inning mark. After age 30, Feller never even broke the 250 inning mark, and never broke the 200-inning mark after age 32. His last truly exceptional (ERA+ over 120) AND durable (over 200 innings) came at age 31.
Now imagine that WWII never happened and he pitched his age 23-26 seasons, throwing his usual workload (at that point in his career) of 330-350 innings in each of them. I’m supposed to believe that a guy who was finished as a HOF pitcher by age 31 would have had a LONGER career if he added 1200+ innings to his arm before turning 27?
I don’t think so.
Mar 26th, 2008
Paul
TC, really interesting follow-up. In that instance, it seems that the number 100 becomes slightly arbitrary, as Seaver and Clemens would have looked like “sure things” at age 26 and were only slightly behind the curve.
Mar 26th, 2008
Mills
Joe —
You ever been out to Bob Feller’s museum out in Van Meter, Iowa? You know, its not too far from Des Moines…
Mar 26th, 2008
El Lay Dave
On comment 9 by gogiggs: fair enough. In the middle of the night, morbid joke interpretation came way faster than any further thought. Although by the time of Chapman’s unfortunate death in August 1920, Babe Ruth had put up a 29 HR season in his last year in Boston and had hit 42 of the 64 he would hit in the 1920 season.
Mar 26th, 2008
Tim Lacy
JP,
Great post, as usual. Two things:
1. I was sure Saberhagen would be on your list. What were his numbers by age 26?
2. On Dusty and the 2003 Cubs, the landscape hasn’t changed since then: it had changed well before then. Dusty’s riding of his horses flew in the face of all smart trends in baseball occurring prior to 2003. Everyone in Chicago held their breath when Dusty did this. I remember Phil Rogers writing, either in the season or very shortly after, about how anomolous this was in 2003—and about how potentially damaging it might be. On this point, Rogers was a prophet.
For the Reds’ sake, I hope Dusty’s changed. If not, in five years Cincinnatti fans will be making the exact same complaints about Mr. Toothpick as we are now in Chicago.
- TL
Mar 26th, 2008
Snowman
That comment Dusty made a week or so ago (I forget exactly how he worded, but it could be paraphrased that he was going to try to get Dunn and Votto to stop taking so many pitches because he hates called third strikes) more or less leads me to conclude that he has not changed enough.
Mar 26th, 2008
Scott P.
Dusty’s riding of his horses flew in the face of all smart trends in baseball occurring prior to 2003. Everyone in Chicago held their breath when Dusty did this. I remember Phil Rogers writing, either in the season or very shortly after, about how anomolous this was in 2003—and about how potentially damaging it might be. On this point, Rogers was a prophet.
I think this is a post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. The 2003 Cubs had three workhorses:
Carlos Zambrano: has pitched well since 2003
Kerry Wood: Suffered chronic injuries both before and well after 2003, with or without Dusty.
Mark Prior: Let’s break him down (no pun intended):
Shoulder injury in 2003 after colliding with Brian Giles — not Dusty’s fault.
Achilles tendon injury 2004
Slight elbow strain 2005
Comeback line drive off elbow by Brad Hawpe 2005
Strained shoulder 2006.
So no throwing problems until 2005, no serious throwing problems until 2006. How can one blame this on what happened in 2003? There’s no logical connection. But I’m sure that when Prior falls and fractures a hip in 2048 that that will be blamed on Dusty as well.
Mar 26th, 2008
deathsinger
Tim,
Saberhagen had 97 wins at the end of his age 26 season. He won his initial start of 1991 before his 27th birthday for a total of 98 before he turned 27.
Mar 26th, 2008
John Peterson
I read somewhere a theory that for every inning a pitcher throws before he’s 26, he loses 8 innings off the tail end of his career.
Something shocking like that.
Mar 26th, 2008
Dan England
Interesting post. Really. Seriously. And yet…
It’s March. Please, please, please write something cool about the tournament. Maybe you’re saving that for the paper. Kansas. Jayhawks. March.
Please.
Please?
Mar 26th, 2008
Tim Lacy
Deathsinger: Thanks! I figured he wasn’t far removed from JoeP’s calculations.
ScottP: Being an historian, I’m quite familiar with the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, and when your contemporaries are warning you about these things, then it’s not an imposition. Chicago got luck with Zambrano: he’s a quarter horse. But Wood and Prior, and some of our relievers if I remember correctly, ended up “stressed,” to say the least. But hey, if you want to defend Dusty, you go right ahead. Good luck with Cincinnati and all that. - TL
Mar 26th, 2008
Mike Williams
Two Royals-related comments about pitcher abuse:
1) Saberhagen was abused severly in 89, pitching the 8th and 9th inning when the Royals already had a 7,8, or 9 run lead some games.
2) Chad Durbin’s career was nearly ruined (or at the least was severly altered) by Tony Muser, who inexplicably let him throw over 140 pitches in a game at very young age. The game was at Oakland, if I recall correctly)
Mar 26th, 2008
Steve Buffum
Have you seen Buster Olney’s piece on Sabathia?
http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3310783
He’s a pretty easy guy to root for.
Mar 26th, 2008
Creston
Even in 2003, people were calling Dusty straight A insane for letting Wood and ESPECIALLY Prior throw that many pitches. Maybe it was all the coverage it was getting that pushed the whole stupidity of the idea in the forefront or something, but it’s not as if nobody knew that was a bad idea before 2003, then Dusty ruined 2 great pitchers and suddenly everyone went “Ooohhh!”
I think Homer Bailey is a really smart kid, getting himself demoted to AAA so he can stay the hell away from Dusty.
Mar 26th, 2008
Creston
“Does anyone really feel like the baseball season has started?”
Not to me it hasn’t. Games at 4am played in Japan is not a )*%&#$)*%#*)% Opening Day!
And yes, Bud Selig needs to be stopped, and quite frankly, put out of power/my misery. For all the credit that Bud gets for bringing so much money to baseball, I wonder how much of that he really had anything to do with. So just because America has gone through a substantial period of economic growth, and people have tons of disposable income, we’re going to unanimously hail Bud Selig as the cause for baseball now making 6 Billion bucks a year? That’s Rick Hummel level thinking there.
Bud has let
- steroids
- the wild card
- interleague play
completely destroy any sense of competitive balance in baseball, but no, let’s hail him as baseball’s savior!
Blergh.
Mar 26th, 2008
deathsinger
Mike Williams,
you wrote
1) Saberhagen was abused severly in 89, pitching the 8th and 9th inning when the Royals already had a 7,8, or 9 run lead some games.
That happened one time all season, first game of doubleheader. Saberhagen had three outings all year in which he compiled 130 or more pitches (130, 135, 138). He had 6 other games in which he pitched more than 120, but less than 130 pitches.
Mar 26th, 2008
Creston
“I think this is a post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. ”
Oh, one of those. I make those all the time myself…
“Carlos Zambrano: has pitched well since 2003″
He also in no way had the same workload that both Prior and Wood had.
Zambrano threw 123 pitches on April 22nd, and 121 pitches on April 27th. He then threw 123 pitches on June 22nd, and that’s it. Most of his other games, he pitched anywhere between 90-110 pitches.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=zambrca01&t=p&year=2003
How this compares to Wood’s 13 times 120+ pitches is beyond me.
What’s the latin word for that? “Ergo In No Way Related Hoc?”
“Kerry Wood: Suffered chronic injuries both before and well after 2003, with or without Dusty.”
So if you’re a manager, and you have a guy that’s already been injured several times, here’s what you do : You ride that guy to death! Isn’t that what every manager would do? Heck yeah!
How is this not Dusty’s fault? Dusty figured “Well, Wood’s been injured once already, so I can just kill him and nobody will blame me, since it’s obviously nothing to do with me!”
I’m not really sure I see the logic here.
“Mark Prior:
Shoulder injury in 2003 after colliding with Brian Giles — not Dusty’s fault.
Achilles tendon injury 2004
Slight elbow strain 2005
Comeback line drive off elbow by Brad Hawpe 2005
Strained shoulder 2006.”
Agreed that Prior has been unlucky with some of his injuries. But, since 2003 he’s been having MAJOR throwing problems in spring training, to the point where he consistently was going to start opening season on the DL. Now, some of the things he was put on the DL for were different, but his arm/elbow/shoulder have been spaghetti since 2003. I’m not going to go through the bother of trying to find all these old spring training articles, but this isn’t just some fairy tale made up by Dusty Haters. Mark Prior has had consistent arm problems since Dusty rode him to death in 2003.
Sorry.
Mar 26th, 2008
Creston
I wish I could edit a post.
Zambrano threw 6 120+ outings, I failed to scroll down far enough. He threw 120 on August 7, 121 on August 12th and 129 on Sept 14th.
He did have quite a lot of 118s and 119s in the final two months as well, so Dusty rode him pretty dang hard too, though I still say Prior and Wood got ridden harder.
I think Zambrano’s just been lucky.
Mar 26th, 2008
Jacob
Well, part of that was that Zambrano wasn’t as far along mentally/emotionally as Prior and Wood. He had so many famous meltdowns on the mound. He’d get a bad call, an error, a couple of duck-snorts, and then the wheels came off. Ironically, the fact that he lost his mind a few too many times might have prevented him from losing his arm…
Mar 26th, 2008
more anchovies
I saw Jim Palmer win two games against the Royals in one day. Spring of 1970.
Mar 26th, 2008
yg bluig
If Feller gets an * for WWII, Dizzy Dean gets one for the 1937 all-star game.
That’s where he broke his big toes on a come-backer. He came back too soon, changed his delivery and blew out his shoulder.
Interesting list, though.
Maybe in this day and age, it’s unrealistic to expect guys who are on pitch counts at every level from HS to through the minors to go 120 pitches + at the majors.
Mar 26th, 2008
ajnrules
I saw the tidbit about Dwight Gooden, and I couldn’t help but remember that back in 2005, Roger Clemens kept his ERA below 2.00 the ENTIRE SEASON. His ERA after his first start was 1.29, and never rose above 1.89, even after he started allowing 5+ runs per start. Of course, we all know he was high on HGH at the time. XD
Mar 26th, 2008
ToyCannon
Frank Tanana was allowed to throw over 600 professional innings before his 21st birthday. If anyone every slagged an arm it was the Angels.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/T/Frank-Tanana.shtml
He was the best young LHP pitcher I’ve ever seen. At this moment Clayton Kershaw is the closest thing I’ve seen to a 20 year old Tanana.
http://www.sportshubla.com/2008/03/12/the-minotaur-is-unleashed-the-kershaw-express-is-born/
Mar 27th, 2008
Goetzo
I know how you feel, Joe. I realized I must be at least middle-aged this year when the Royals hired a manager that was younger than me.
Mar 27th, 2008
Shawn
Don’t forget, Mr. White, that a lot of what Bob Feller did in the military was pitch. A lot of people forget that, while many of these guys were in the military, they were still playing ball. Fighter pilot Ted Williams was an exception.
Oh, and to note, 300 innings in the low offense 1960s and 1970s was a lot different than the same number now would be. Fewer hits and fewer runs require far fewer pitches.
Mar 27th, 2008
Ticket 4 SuperBowl
Nice message.
I am sure you will like my diary..
See ya
Apr 7th, 2008
Reply to “I See See A Bright Future …”