Fun Tournament Stuff …
Posted: March 24th, 2008 | Filed under: Other Sports | 35 Comments »
I love the NCAA Tournament. I know all the bad stuff about it — the crapshootiness* of it, the way small conference schools often get jobbed by the tournament committee, the way great seasons get ruined because of a couple of badly-timed missed jump shots and so on. Well, nothing’s perfect. I still love the tournament because unlike most other playoffs systems, there ARE surprises, there ARE teams like Davidson and Villanova, there are spectacular moments and fantastic finishes and clashing styles and that are both heartbreaking and thrilling, depending on what team you happen to have in your bracket. Also there are terrible mascots and bands trying to play louder than each other. What more could you want?
Point is: It’s often exciting. Sometimes, I think we’re too busy looking for “fair†systems in sports. I’m all for fairness. But I also see the value in an EXCITING system, one that often gives us the thrilling outcomes. I don’t like the wild card in baseball at all — I mean AT ALL — but I cannot deny that it has added some drama to September for many fans. Conversely, I think that the BCS system is crappy not only because it’s unfair (it is) but because lately it only seems to give us Ohio State getting blown out in horrible, unwatchable national championship games. What’s fun in that? If ithe BCS would just give us the USC-Texas game every year, it can be as unfair as it wants to be.
*I think this blog should be in part dedicated to adding words (or dusting off old words) to the English language. You know Shakespeare, according to Bill Bryson’s wonderful book “Mother Tongue†coined 2,000 words. So, far I only feel good about adding one word, the Pozterisk (PAHZ-tur-isk: Noun, a symbol used to mark pointless and illogical digressions placed inconveniently in the middle of blog posts) and let’s face it that’s not exactly Shakespeare’s homicide, excellent or leapfrog, is it? I better get cracking. And yet, I will be quick to concede that “crapshootiness†does not seem likely to take off. We’ll keep working on it.
In the meantime, Bryson (who is, by the way, absolutely brilliant — and as a little tidbit his father was a sportswriter in Des Moines) recommends a couple of old words that should be brought back from the dead.
Velleity: Describes a mild desire, a wish or urge too slight to lead to action.
So. for instance, if you’re in bed at 11 p.m., like I was last night, and you’re KIND OF hungry, you KIND OF want to go downstairs and maybe pour yourself a bowl of Cocoa Puffs or something, but you don’t … that’s a velleity. Or if you hear that Royals manager Trey Hillman KIND of wants to have Ross Gload hit in the No. 3 spot, you hope that’s a velleity.
Ugsome: A late medieval word meaning loathsome or disgusting.
We must bring this back. I suggest we begin by saying, “Juan Pierre’s swing is ugsome.â€
ANYWAY, I love the tournament. So, I want to offer you three links … maybe more later.
1. You have to go Bill James’ Online and read Bill’s breakdown of tournament seeds. If you are not a member of Bill’s Online and you can afford the few bucks a month, you HAVE to become a subscriber. The stuff on there is incredible.
In this case, he comes up with a formula that basically determines how often, say, a No. 1 seed should defeat a No. 2 seed, or a No. 7 seed, or a No. 16 seed. It’s great stuff. And so, using his formula, I have figured out each of the remaining 16 team’s chances to go to the Final Four. I have two lists — the first if the opposite game goes according to seed (in other words, UCLA will play the winner of No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 7 West Virginia. The first percentage assumes that Xavier wins). The second list assumes an upset (West Virginia beats Xavier).
Here we go:
Percentage chances for teams to make the FInal Four (if opposite game goes according to seed):
UCLA: 64.3%
Kansas: 64.3%
Memphis: 46.2%
North Carolina: 44.8%
Texas: 24%
Tennessee: 24%
Wisconsin: 20.4%
Xavier: 17.6%
Stanford: 11%
Louisville: 10.4%
Washington State: 9.5%
Michigan State: 8.1%
West Virginia: 7.7%
Davidson: 3.9%
Western Kentucky: 2.2%
Villanova: 2.2%
This does not add up to 400%, by the way. The reason for this is … I don’t know, this isn’t Stand and Deliver. I’m sure I did it wrong. Just take it for what it’s worth.
Percentage chances for teams to make the Final Four (if opposite game is an upset):
Kansas: 77.6%
UCLA: 72%
Wisconsin: 56%
Memphis: 54%
North Carolina: 52.5%
Xavier: 48.2%
Texas: 41%
Tennessee: 39.4%
West Virginia: 26.6%
Stanford: 21.4%
Louisville: 19.2%
Davidson: 16.8%
Washington State: 12.5%
Michigan State: 10.8%
Villanova: 4.1%
Western Kentucky: 3.1%
The bottom line, apparently, is that Kansas and Bill Self will never have a better opportunity to get to the first Final Four.
2. Over at Favorable Ratings, we take a look at John McCain’s tournament bracket so far. Not bad. Not great. But not bad.
3. This is absolutely hysterical, but then what else would you expect from McSweeney’s? I love my McSweeney’s too. I’m going to talk with Dave Eggers about sports for this blog someday. I have to meet him first, I guess. I put him in my Soul of Baseball acknowledgments, and still … nothing. Maybe he was waiting to get the paperback.
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I think this blog should be in part dedicated to adding words (or dusting off old words) to the English language.
When I think Joe Posnanski, I think neologist.
I threw a new word out in a blog post about a week ago that I really like. Truveat, it’s like a caveat only more true. I don’t know if it makes sense but I like it.
The best part of the tournament is the first two rounds, just for their sheer frenzy. In no other sport are there 48 elimination games in four days. Forty-eight great seasons come to a sudden end over the course of four days.
Because language is malleable, I suggest that “ugsome” be changed to “Hugsome” in honor of Bob Huggins. The definition (loathsome or disgusting) need not change.
I love the way that soccer works; you have a league, which is a straight-up double-round-robin; completely fair, but often unexciting, and then you have a cup. Single-elimination, unseeded, completely random draw, including randomly drawing home field advantage. I love the FA Cup.
If you look at this year’s cup as being like the NCAA tourney, the Final Four is one #4 (Portsmouth) and the best of the rest is a #7. Awesome upsets, especially Barnsley beating both Liverpool and Chelsea – equivalent to beating two #1s in Sweet 16 and Elite 8 (yes, you can’t do that in the NCAA; but the FA Cup is unseeded)
I’d like to propose a new definition for the word “Martian”. I’m sure it was really quaint back in the 1950s to throw around “Martian” in the expectation that we should have a word to describe the people, or beings, or creatures, or whatever we would find whenever we inevitably landed on Mars. Well, we’ve landed on Mars, and found bupkis. It there are real Martians out there, they did a great job disguising themselves as rocks and sand. So, with that possibility proving to be a dead end, I say we reinvent the word. No need for a perfectly good word to rot away just because its original definition didn’t pan out.
From now on, in honor of Kansas State head basketball coach Frank Martin, I say “Martian” should be defined as: “Any person who looks like a serial killer, but isn’t.” Sure, maybe “Martinian” would be more grammatically correct, but where would the fun be in that?
(Note: I reserve the right to change this definition again if Frank Martin turns out to be an actual serial killer. Which is possible.)
It’s so easy to create new words while blogging. Chillaxing is one, though it may not have started with a blog. You’re Chillin’, but you’re relaxing, so you’re Chillaxin’.
Your book is awesome. The Nancy Story had me laughing out loud on the train.
Bill Bryson is great! Glad to see you know your fellow writers. As a guy that grew up in Des Moines, its nice to see one of our own make it to the height of his profession.
I* would like to say** that “Pozterisk”*** is a neologism**** worthy of Webster’s.*****
*And just who am “I,” anyway? (Tip o’the hat to Admiral Stockwell.)****** Just another anonymous blog reader hiding behind a pseudonym because I’m likely to say something political or impolitic or inflamatory******* that’ll provoke some crazy to stalk me and give be the Alan Berg******** bon voyage.
**I always hated the construct “would like to say that….” Like my high school English teacher********* said, “If you want to say it, just say it, damnit! “
***One of the nice thinks about “Pozterisk” is it’s not not only a neologism, but an eponym. That should get you extra points.**********
****I just like saying neologism. It sort of justifies my liberal arts education.*********** Now if I could just get the pizza smell out of my car after my shift.
*****How is it ol’ Webster lost his copyright on the dictionary? Anybody can publish a list of words and call it “Webster’s”
******Did you know his full name is “James Bond” Stockwell? No wonder he had an indentity crisis.
*******I wrote a send-up of the NRA’s rhetoric advocating 2nd Amendment rights for convicts in prison. (What part of “shall not be infringed” do you not understand?!) Funny how guys who really, REALLY, REALLY!!! want a lot of guns don’t have a sense of humor.
********People who can’t take a joke, meet a guy who couldn’t take a bullet.************
*********She was my first great English teacher. Her name was Miss Hackney. I should’ve gotten the hint.
**********I’m assuming the people at Webster’s***** work on a point system. Maybe you can bribe them.
***********The most important lesson I learned was if you don’t pay your on-campus parking tickets long enough, they’ll eventually give you the diploma anyway.
************Actually, he took several.*************
*************Too soon?
As much fun as it is to use OSU as a club to bash the BCS, let’s not forget OSU/Miami ‘02*, which might classify as the “greatest” (excitement + import) bowl game of the past 20 years (though Boise State/OU is the most exciting).
classify = qualify, apparently.
Thank you D.B., I too believe the Buckeyes get a bad rap on this stage. No one wants to remember that they were serious underdogs vs. The Canes. So, they have lost ugly twice…..but at least they were there.
It’s about time we got a tournamet post. I thought we were going to see baseball posts all year long, despite the fact that this is the best time of the year for basketball fans and baseball HASN’T EVEN STARTED YET.
I mean, if this were Chiefs season, I’d understand, but Kansas is pretty good, right?
By the way, hi. I’m that guy who worked for the Salina Journal who wrote you a few times to tell you how good you are. I’m now in Colorado. I still read you every day. Keep up the good work and thanks for the blog. As far as making money, sell an ad or two. Your paper does it. Sheesh.
More Hawks, less average walks. Say it with me.
Oh and Bill Bryson’s “A Walk in the Woods” is one of the best books I have ever read, and I’m the Adventure/Outdoors writer for the Greeley Tribune, so I sort of know what I’m talking about.
I, too, like Bill Bryson.
And I may have mentioned this in a comment section on your blog before, but I’ve tried to get an answer from Dave Eggers (a friend put me on the phone with him, as he tends to do when he’s in line for something or around some famous person like Dave Eggers or Peter Buck) as to whether or not the ending of “A Heartbreaking Work…” actually meant anything. Now I reread the end of that book three or four times and scoured the book for any possible foreshadowing or motifs that point to the ending meaning something. I came to the conclusion that the ending was a cop-out, and he didn’t know how to end the book, so he went that route and gave us an obtuse ending that “could be left to interpretation”. His response to me query was, “Maybe you should read the book again,” to which I replied, “But if I read the book again, then won’t have the time to buy and read your new one, and wouldn’t you rather have another book sold?” And then he skirted to reposing of the question, which leads me to believe that the end of the book meant nothing.
Or maybe I’m retarded.
I did like the rest of the book, but I really suspect the frisbee stuff on the beach was merely gobbledygook.
And yes, I said “me query” on purpose…
i think its always fun to watch the buckeyes get the snot beat out of them – helps keep the pomposity of a school that feels the need to call itself THE OSU in check.
I like “crapshootiness”. It could catch on. There are philosophers who write about the philosophy of luck. I bet they could use a word like crapshootiness.
And I’ll try and do my part in daily conversation. Hmm…I kind of like the crapshootiness of reading the comments on your blog. You never know what subject will be addressed.
Paul – Your definition of “Martian” was gold, pure gold.
Joe – any chance you could run weighted averages on those Final Four percentages? For example:
Chance of Kansas making Final Four = (Chance of Kansas beating Villanova) * ((Chance of Wisconsin beating Davidson) * (Chance of Kansas beating Wisconsin) + (Chance of Davidson beating Wisconsin) * (Chance of Kansas beating Davidson))
I think that’s why the chances don’t add up to 400%.
Yeah, if you WEIGHT the two chances for each team as shown below and then add them ALL up, it’ll be 400%:
Chance UCLA makes Final Four =(chance they beat WKU) *((chance they FACE Xavier * chance they beat Xavier) + (chance they FACE WV * chance they BEAT WVU)) = (.9) ((.616)(.714)+(.384)(.821)) = 67.93%
Basically same as above with fewer parens and the numbers from BJO added in.
Sorry if already mentioned….
The chances add up to 400% because 4 teams make the final four.
Never mind. Ignore the last comment. I need to learn how to read.
Bill Shakespeare had nothing on Dr. Seuss.
I absolutely agree w/you Richard. The FA Cup this year has been incredible (Liverpool losing to Barnsley withstanding). Havant and Waterlooville making the 4th round? (This is analogous to a DII team qualifying for the DI NCAA tourney) 3 Championship teams in the semifinals with Portsmouth?! as the favorites.
That’s ridiculous.
By the way that semi final pairing would be analogous broadly to three 14/15/16 seeds making the final 4 and then the favorite being a 4 seed.
@ other Jon:
Nah, that’s overstating it. Remember, the EPL only has 20 teams (1-5 seeds); the 24 Championship teams would be analogous to 6-11 seeds. Portsmouth’s really a 3.
Of course, this doesn’t take into account the financial disparity between the divisions — but in many ways the NCAA Division I tournament has the same sort of divisions (i.e., there’s usually a couple of very real talent gaps within the field along the S-curve, usually right around the 4/5 seed line and the 12/13 seed line).
Emil Brown, of all the Emil Browns in the world, you are the Emil Browniest.
I didn’t get the Emil Brown comment until I saw that Brown hit an RBI double this morning in the 10th to bring the A’s within one with one out and Brown on second, except that Brown made a base running blunder between second and third, and got tagged out, thus two outs and nobody on. Brownie, Brownie, Brownie.
That baserunning blunder by Brown was absolutely craptastic.
The only problem with getting excited about the upsets in the FA Cup and comparing them with the NCAA’s is that some of these teams do not put their best players into FA Cup matches, citing ‘fixture congestion’. That type of strategy would be unheard of in the NCAA’s.
Why can’t anyone in an Oakland uniform run the bases? And, can I thank Billy Beane for this?
Yes, I suspect that in the far future Oakland will hire Tejada and Byrnes to teach base running the Oakland way.
Craptastic is a perfect example of another word that needs to become real – except it needs no definition (the definition of a perfect word BTW).
I loved watching Brown run the bases in white and green. One of the prettiest sights my eyes have seen.
“Crapshootiness” is brilliant. An earlier contender for neologism of the year, I think.
Word I created in an e-mail this week:
Horribosity. Because horribleness just doesn’t seem to capture it.
I also considered Horridosity, because horrid doesn’t get nearly as much play as horrible, and it should, it should. Unfortunately, I was responding to an e-mail asking me to comment on whether something was horrible or not, so Horridosity was out. Too bad.
I found your mistake:
Duke 39.4%