Joe Posnanski

The problem with doing a “Part I” to anything is that people for some reason expect a “Part II,” which is kind of a drag. I’ve been halfheartedly working on some poems for a National League preview, for instance, but I’m just not sure I’m going to get that done. I should post some sort of challenge — like, I’ll finish those poems if readers get this Amazon number into the Top 1,000 or something like that. We could make it a sort of community effort*.

*Speaking of new efforts, we might in the next few weeks be adding a fun new music feature to this blog. This new feature, as you might imagine, will bring me the same exact cash reward that this blog has always brought me, precisely $0.00, but it could be fun. We’ll keep you informed.

Anyway, here is Part II of the Prospectus Answers — this is where we go to the best-selling and incredibly fun Baseball Prospectus with one question on each team and try look for our Magic 8 Ball answer. We left off with the Los Angeles Dodgers, so here are the Brewers:

Milwaukee Brewers: Will the Brews get 100 home runs again out of their four infielders?
Prospectus: Don’t Count On It.

The real question with the Brewers probably revolves around Ben Sheets and whether he will pitch a full season — he hasn’t thrown 157 innings in three consecutive seasons — and the Beep pretty clearly does not believe that will happen (PECOTA has him going 9-7 in 145 innings). But the home run thing is more fun to consider. Last year, Brewers infielders hit 126 homers. But with Braun going to the outfield and Hall coming in, the dynamic has changed.

3B: Bill Hall, projected 19 homers (+5 from 2007, but -15 from Ryan Braun’s numbers).
SS: J.J. Hardy, projected 17 homers (-9)
2B: Rickie Weeks, projected 16 homers (same)
1B: Prince Fielder, projected 38 homers (-12).

So, the Beep is projecting the infielders to hit 90 home runs — but I think they still get to 100. I’m looking for a big year out of Weeks, and I think Fielder could go for 50 again. The Beep also projects 39 homers for Braun, though that was when they expected him to still be a third baseman. As an outfielder, who knows?

Minnesota Twins: Does Francisco Liriano return to something resembling his 2006 form?
Prospectus: Signs point to yes.

Liriano was so electric in 2006 — 12-3, 2.16 ERA, 144 Ks in 121 innings — and it was just heartbreaking as a baseball fan to see him go down with the injury. I can’t remember ever rooting harder for someone to come back from injury, because he was SO much fun to watch. Obviously, you can’t expect him to come all the way back this year after missing 16 months — you would certainly expect that the Twins won’t LET him come all the way back.

But the Beep sees good things. They project him to go 6-5 (with a save), a 3.00 ERA, 103 Ks in 94 innings, and that would be terrific. I think it will be very interesting to see how the Twins handle Liriano this year. The guy is still only 24 years old (how about him being a minor piece in the A.J. Pierzynski-Joe Nathan trade?) and you don’t want to make any mistakes. He has pitched tentatively at times this spring, and who could blame him?

New York Mets: Is this the year Carlos Beltran wins the National League MVP award?
Prospectus: Outlook not so good.

It’s no secret that I heart Carlos Beltran. He is one of my five favorite players that I have had the chance to watch every day as a professional sportswriter. Those five, off the top of my head, would probably be:

1. Carlos Beltran
2. Barry Larkin
3. Johnny Damon
4. Deion Sanders
5. Rey Sanchez

Now, when I say “favorite players to watch” I mean something different from best players or even most exciting players. I’m talking here about players that I just connected with as a fan, players that I would come to the ballpark excited to watch for some reason.

– I loved watching Rey Sanchez play shortstop because he had the most remarkable shortstop hands I ever saw and because as much as anyone I could THINK with him on the field. I would see a ground ball hit in his area and know immediately whether or not he could get to it (or would even try). It’s really fun when you have a fan-watching-relationship with players*. It goes without saying, however, that I did like watching Rey Sanchez hit.

*One of my two proudest moments as a baseball observer happened when I was sitting with Bill James at a Royals ballgame and Michael Tucker was at the plate. I had my run-ins with Tuck, but I had a certain respect for him — he usually played hard and when he got hot he was quite a ballplayer. He also was a very loyal newspaper reader, which is admirable and also why we had our run-ins. Anyway, I’d gotten to know him too. I turned to Bill when Tucker had two strikes and said, “He will watch a fastball go right down the middle for strike three and then he will gripe at the umpire for a long time.” Boom, fastball, down the middle, strike three, and Tucker griped. I think whatever respect Bill has for me is based on that moment.

The other proud moment came in the All-Star Game, 1998, when Dean Palmer was the Royals lone representative. The Star sent two of us — me and Dick Kaegel — to the game, one of many times when Kansas City had more reporters at the All-Star Game than players. Anyway, Palmer — who had a very good year, I should say — came up in the eighth inning, and I turned to Dick and said (a little too loudly — my voice can carry like that): “So Dick, do you want to write about this 6-4-3 double play or should I?”

Next pitch (I think — might have been a couple of pitches later) Palmer hit into the 6-4-3 double play.

– I loved watching Deion play because he was a different player and person on a baseball diamond than he was on the football field. He had a certain seriousness when he played baseball — at least that’s how I saw it. And he was fun to watch because of his speed and athleticism. I’ve had scouts tell me he was the most amazing baseball talent they had ever seen in high school. If he had signed to play baseball and left football behind I think he could have been a batting champion and a guy who stole 100 bases in a season. And — being Deion — he probably would have developed power too. Of course, when he goes into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, I doubt he will look back with regret.

– I loved watching Johnny Damon play because as much as any player I’ve seen — with the possible exceptions of Ichiro, the buff Barry, a young George Brett — when he got hot, it was flat impossible to get him out.

– I loved watching Barry Larkin play because virtually every game during the 1994 and 1995 seasons he seemed to do something exceptional to help the Reds win. The numbers tell that story — in 1995 he hit .319/.394/.492, hit 15 homers, stole 51 bases, scored 98 runs, hit .345/.453/.591 with runners in scoring position and won the Gold Glove, all in a strike-shortened 131 games. As good as the numbers are, though, watching him play every day, it became almost funny after a while to see just how often the Reds would need something and Larkin would deliver. Larkin is a Hall of Famer for me, by the way.

And then there’s Carlos. I never saw a player who could do so many things and make them look so effortless. I remember Royals GM Allard Baird telling me often — and Al was not the time to gush — that Carlos was one of only two or three players he ever saw who could “be as good as he wants to be.” That’s a cliche, of course, but not the way Allard said it — he really and truly meant that if Carlos wanted to hit 50 homers in a season, he could. If he wanted to steal 75 bases in a season, he could. If he wanted to hit .370, he could.

I’m not sure it’s that easy — Carlos always made things LOOK easier than they were — but I do know that he’s one of the few guys out there who can hit .276/.353/.525 with 33 homers, 112 RBIs, 23 stolen bases (in 25 attempts), win a Gold Glove in centerfield and have many call it a down year. And those many are right — for Carlos it probably WAS a down year, a year hindered by injuries again.

The Beep projects a similar but somewhat diminished year in 2008: .276/.363/.501, 27 homers, 92 RBIs, 92 runs, 14 steals. That’s probably hits close to home. But you never know with Carlos — this might be the year that leaves everyone gasping for air.

New York Yankees: Joba? Is he a starter? A reliever? A dominant force? A confused young guy?
Prospectus: Reply hazy, try again.

PECOTA projects Joba to go 9-6 with a 3.39 ERA, 15 starts, 50 relief appearances, 162 Ks in 145 innings. In other words, he will be all of the above.

Oakland Athletics: Is Eric Chavez finished as a great player?
Prospectus: Signs point to yes.

I’m probably overselling it a little bit — the Prospectus authors say that Chavez’s future is uncertain because of all the injuries … but his PECOTA numbers (.244/.326/.421 in 437 at-bats) tell a pretty simple story.

You know one thing that’s weird about Chavez is the way his walk totals have fluctuated in his career.

In 2001, as a 23 year old, he walked only 41 times in 604 plate-appearances and nine of those were intentional. That’s hacker stuff.
In 2002 and 2003, he walked a bit more, 65 and 62 times respectively.
In 2004, he led the American League with 95 walks.
The next year, with almost 700 plate appearances, he walked only 58 times.
In 2006, he was back to walking a lot again — 84 walks in 576 plate appearances.
And last year was a busted year because of injuries, but again his walks were quite a bit down.

I’m not even beginning to guess what it means. I just think is odd. Anyway, Chavez was a great player from 2001-2004 — four Gold Gloves and an OPS+ ranging from 126 to 134. I don’t know if it’s injuries or wear-and-tear or something else or a combination, but he has not been the same player for three years, and he’s 30, and the Beep does not see a comeback season. Coming off off-season back surgery, that seems a very solid prediction.

Philadelphia Phillies: Will this Ryan Howard thrill-ride go on for a long time?
Prospectus: My sources say no.

PECOTA gives us another Ryan Howard special year in 2008 — .273/.381/.574 with 44 homers and 122 RBIs. BUT the authors have a warning:

“Howard’s PECOTA comparables (Ed. note: Mike Epstein, Cecil Fielder, Calvin Pickering, Mo Vaughn — YIKES!) suggest the system doesn’t expect him to have a long battery life, a reflection of his late start and old-player skills. Still, Howard is a better hitter than any of those guys and is going to be fun while he lasts.”

Pittsburgh Pirates: Matt Morris? Are you freaking kidding me? MATT MORRIS?
Prospectus: Concentrate and ask again.

There have been dumber moves in baseball history, I suppose. There have certainly been more damaging moves — this one doesn’t even get into the Top 500 of those. And still … I don’t believe there has ever been a move in the history of baseball that made less sense than when the Pirates airlifted Matt Morris out of San Francisco and agreed to pay him the remaining $13.7 million on his contract. There has to be something else to this; maybe the owner really liked watching Matt Morris pitch or something. I don’t know. Morris’ 6.10 ERA in Pittsburgh did not make the deal look any better, but that was a given.

PECOTA has Morris going 6-9 with a 5.02 ERA and 127 innings. I hate to say this because Morris seems like a solid guy — but I think the Pirates would take that. Morris was a very good pitcher until he was 27, and he has been fading fast ever since. It’s not an uncommon story.

St. Louis Cardinals: So, do you like the Chris Carpenter contract?
Prospectus: NO!

From the Beep: “Hey, here’s an idea. Don’t give a pitcher with a sketchy health record what amounts to a three-year contract extension for $50 million that doesn’t kick in for two more years. Leapin’ lizards (ed. note: Yes! Leapin’ Lizards!) there’s 400 innings to be navigated! Giving Carpenter a five-year contract was a ridiculous idea in Dec. 2006, and looked worse when the righty blew out his elbow just six innings into it. He didn’t have Tommy John surgery until July and will miss most of the 2008 season. The contract leaves the Cardinals spending tens of millions of dollars they would not have had to spend if they had just waited.”

San Diego Padres: Is Khalil Greene a good defensive shortstop?
Prospectus: Ask again later.

I have said many, many times that I love the Beep. Love it. Love the the thought the Prospectus authors put into the game. Love the stats they come up with. Love the way they break things down.

That said, I do not understand their defensive ratings. I’m not saying they’re good or bad. I’m not passing judgment — I’m not qualified to do that. I’m just saying that I don’t understand the system. I mentioned in the last installment that the Beep — like everyone else — mocks Hanley Ramirez’s defense. And yet his defensive projection for 2008 was a very respectable +2. I don’t know.

Same story with Greene. After an interesting blurb on Greene (it says that last year he was apparently the first shortstop in baseball history to have less than .300 on-base percentage AND have 70 or more extra-base hits), the essay goes on to say this: “Our system doesn’t do his defense justice: It’s very good.” I looked up and saw that last year, the Beep system said Greene as a -7 at shortstop, which is dreadful, and the projection this year is -2. I wish they had explained why Greene scores low defensively … and why they think he’s better than that.

San Francisco Giants: Will Tim Lincecum have a dominating year?
Prospectus: Most likely.

I’m a huge Lincecum fan and I’m desperately rooting for him to be a superstar for one simple reason: Many scouts passed on him because they think he will get hurt. I appreciate that this is a part of scouting too — you have to project the long-term health of a pitcher, this is a huge part of baseball. There’s just too much money involved. A lot of people also thought he was too small. And that he projected as a reliever. And so on.

And yet … I sometimes wonder if scouts — and all of us in whatever jobs we might have — sometimes try to look beyond the obvious. This guy’s stuff is so good, so electric, so freaking unique that I would sure like to take a chance on him. The Royals took Luke Hochevar, the Rockies took Greg Reynolds, the Pirates took Brad Lincoln, the Mariners took Brandon Morrow, the Tigers took Andrew Miller and the Dodgers took Clayton Kershaw, all before Lincecum. Now, some of those guys could pan out and become stars — Kershaw sure looks good, for instance. BUT … those teams all looked past Lincecum for these alternate reasons. And I think that might have been a mistake. It’s sort of the way I feel about 2 foot putts. Ask a kid who has never played golf to try a 2-footer, he’ll probably knock it in. Ask a longtime golfer, he will analyze it, study the breaks, and quite possibly lip it out. You can overanalyze anything.

The Beep has Lincecum going 8-8 with a 3.58 ERA, 133 Ks in 140 innings. That’s pretty good. But as the writer points out, it could be better than that. “He has big leap potential and could very well be the best pitcher in the NL this year … and go 12-10.”

Seattle Mariners: Another big year for Raul Ibanez?
Prospectus: Outlook not so good.

The real question with the Mariners, of course, is how good King Felix Hernandez will be (PECOTA has him going 11-10 with a 3.97 ERA) but I’m thinking more about my friend Raul. He’s a wonderful guy, a real success story, and his oldest son was born on the exact day that my oldest daughter was born. It’s a strange thing to say, but I’m proud of him — proud of the way he stayed with the game and became one of the more productive hitters (we’re talking 95 RBIs per season the last six year) and one of the really solid every day players in the game.

PECOTA sees him falling off some this year — .277/.345/.451 with 17 homers and 79 RBIs — and that’s probably fair. Raul will turn 36 in June, he’s not hitting lefties much, and the Prospectus defensive ratings had him -17 in the outfield — Raul was never a great outfielder but for years he was able to get by with a lot of determination and good sense. Eventually, bad legs will overcome those things. In any case, people have written off Raul Ibanez before, and he’s come through. It’s been a terrific career, and I’d have him on my team anytime.

Tampa Bay Rays: Can Carlos Pena do THAT again?
Prospectus: Don’t count on it.

Last year still looks like a misprint — .282/.411/.627 with 46 homers and 121 RBIs? That’s beyond incredible.

PECOTA has Pena hitting .259/.372/.500 with 33 homers and 99 RBIs this year. That’s still a very nice year — and would be considered a HUGE comeback year for a guy whose career in 2006 looked to be over. But it’s still quite a comedown from 2007.

Texas Rangers: Um, maybe something about Hank Blalock?
Prospectus: Ask again later.

I’m getting tired, so maybe that explains why I really cannot think of anything I want to know about the Texas Rangers. Then again, I don’t recall having any real curiosity about the Rangers when I wasn’t tired.

I have wondered about Blalock. I thought he was going to be a real star after his first couple of seasons when he posted 117 and 113 ERA+ at third base. Hasn’t happened. Hasn’t come close to happening. He did hit well last year and showed signs of living up to his talent level, but then had a surgery I still don’t understand — the Beep says it was something about his ribs.

Anyway, PECOTA is not especially kind to Blalock: .263/.332/.437 with 15 homers in 455 ABs. Considering that he’s 27 now — that should be his prime year — that’s not especially promising.

Toronto Blue Jays: Will the departed Troy Glaus have a better year than the imported Scott Rolen?
Prospectus: You may rely on it.

The real question may be which guy gets to 500 at-bats first (or at all) but here’s what PECOTA says:

Rolen: .263/.328/.430, 13 homers, 59 RBIs, 55 runs, 462 ABs.
Glaus: .258/.364/.472, 21 homers, 71 RBIs, 60 runs, 489 ABs.

That second line looks quite a bit better. Rolen has been a spectacular fielder while Glaus has been a good one, so that could be a difference. But the Beep defensive numbers don’t even give Rolen that. They have him -1 in 2008; Glaus at the neutral 0.

Washington Nationals: Is there room on this team for a couple of other troubled character guys? Does Mike Milken play baseball? G. Gordon Liddy? Anton Chigurh?
Prospectus: We feel that Elijah Dukes is quite enough.

And Paul Lo Duca … AND Johnny Estrada (there’s a reason this guy has been traded three times already and not offered a contract by the Mets AFTER one of those trades) … AND Lastings Milledge … AND so on.

Well, they just don’t make stuff like they used to*.

I have two friends in baseball who do not know each other, who do not look at baseball the same way at all, who would probably not especially enjoy each other’s company — and both have told me independently that Wily Mo Pena is going to hit 40 home runs this year. The Beep does not see it that way — they have him hitting 18 homers — but I thought it would be nice to say something nice about the Nationals and my old friend Jim Bowden.

*This is not entirely true about not making stuff like they did. As my friend Mike Vaccaro points out, nobody has ever improved on the “switcheroo.” Here we are all these years later, and we’re still pulling the “OLD switcheroo.” Nobody ever talks about someone pulling a “new switcheroo” or a an “improved switcheroo.” Nope. The old switcheroo was good enough for our parents, and it’s good enough for us now. This is in direct contrast to the pentathlon … the old pentathlon was so outdated that they had to modernize it.