Joe Posnanski

I love my Baseball Prospectus. I love that this year’s book is roughly the size of a ‘77 Ford Pinto. I love that the writers throw around their statistical abbreviations and acronyms without any embarrassment. I love that they manage to stuff more stuff into a 2 x 9 inch player’s profile than my daughter Elizabeth can stuff in her school backpack. Breakout? VORP? MLVr? You betcha.

Oh yeah. I love the Baseball Prospectus. Or BP. Or as I like to call it, “The Beep.”

So, I’m telling you right up front that if you are one of the four baseball fans who doesn’t own it, and you love reading about the game (why else would you be here?), you need to go buy your copy right now (you know, after you buy THIS). In the meantime, though, I thought it would be fun to go through all 30 teams and ask my Prospectus one key question about each team. Because in addition to the fun writing, the great stats, the good projections, the Prospectus also serves as a baseball Magic 8 Ball.

Here we go with the first 15 teams:

Arizona: Is Randy Johnson done?
Prospectus: Don’t Count On It.

Though PECOTA — the Prospectus’ deadly accurate projection system — only projects Johnson to throw 75 2/3 innings, it projects for him to be quite effective in those innings: 5-4 record, 3.94 ERA, 78 strikeouts and 22 walks. It also gives him a 37% chance for a breakout year — breakout being at least 20% better than the last three seasons. The authors suggest that if Arizona gives him the Roger Clemens treatment,* he could be “the best five inning starter in the game’s history.

I’m not sure who the other five-inning starters are in the game’s history, but I think the point is made.

*By ”Roger Clemens treatment,“ I mean reduce his innings. I suspect most people would probably have a very different image when looking at the words ”Roger“ ”Clemens“ and ”Treatment.“

Atlanta: Will Jeff Francoeur, with his newfound “patience” walk more than in previous years?
Prospectus: My Sources Say No.

I asked this of Bill James — to me there are certain stories that we see every year. Oh, look, Jeremy Bonderman has found a change-up. Oh look, the Yankees insist that Derek Jeter is a great defensive shortstop because of his game awareness. Oh look, lots of teams are going to concentrate more on fundamentals. And so on.

Well, one of those annual stories will be: Oh look, Francoeur has developed patience at the plate. I just don’t buy it. Look, he’s a good player, a good defender, a tough competitor, a clubhouse presence, a 100 RBI guy, whatever. Let him be. The walks thing just isn’t happening. For one thing, even if he really DID develop some patience, it would never last. It’s like what running back Priest Holmes used to say about cornerbacks. He said that sometimes, early in the game, a cornerback will be aggressive and come flying up and hit the running backs with surprising force. But, he said, by the fourth quarter “They turn back into cornerbacks.” That’s how it is. Running away from contact is in most cornerbacks’ nature. And Francoeur is a hacker.

The second thing that bothers me is that anytime someone talks about walking more — well, to me, that just undervalues the skills it takes to walk. What Barry Bonds or Frank Thomas or Jim Thome or so many other greats have been doing ain’t easy, and it ain’t just about a guy deciding during an off-season, “Hey, I should be more patient.”

BP says Franky NoWalks hits .284 with 22 homers, 84 RBIs, 108 strikeouts … and 35 walks.

Baltimore: Can Daniel Cabrera harness his talent?
Prospectus: Reply hazy, try again.

I pulled that question directly off the Orioles Web site because, quite frankly, I have absolutely no questions about this team and no curiosity. It’s a shame — I love Baltimore as a town, and as a baseball town. But this team. Yuck.

PECOTA gives Cabrera a 29% chance for a breakout season and a 66% for improvement. Of course improvement over a 9-18, 5.55 ERA season isn’t really anything to dance about. The author isn’t overly impressed with Cabrera’s overall makeup (unless I’m misreading the description: “There’s still talent there, but mostly there’s slack”). Unusually, the Beep seems of two minds on Cabrera — usually you can tell exactly where they stand. I suspect Prospectus is pretty content with the 10-11, 4.54 ERA year that PECOTA projects.

Boston: Will Dustin Pedroia continue to be the same kind of player he was in 2007.
Prospectus: You may rely on it.

I’ve heard a lot of baseball people say that they expect Pedroia to take a sizable step backward in ‘08 — there’s only so much you can do with scrap, right? Prospectus doesn’t see it that way … they have him at .295/.361/.430 which is slightly down from ‘07, but not much at all. And they expect the counting numbers to be about as good or better — 39 doubles, 2 triples, 10 homers, 70 RBIs, 81 runs. If I were him, I’d take that right now*.

*And wouldn’t it be great if baseball was like that, if it was like “Let’s Make a Deal,” and you could get statistics offered at the beginning of the year and decide whether to stick with those or play it out. Actually, now that I think of it, no, that really wouldn’t be especially great.

Chicago Cubs: Will Kosuke Fukudome put up similar numbers to what he put up in Japan?
Prospectus: As I see it, yes.

Last year, Fukudome hit .294/.443/.520 in Japan with 13 homers in 348 plate appearances.

PECOTA projects: .289/.401/.504 with the Cubs with 15 homers in 465 at-bats.

He has hit .351 in Japan before with as many as 31 homers in a season, but it appears that the Beep doesn’t see him hitting for an excessively high average or banging 30 homers. No, it sees him settling in a a J.D. Drew or lefty Kevin Youkilis type, which isn’t a bad thing at all to be.

Chicago White Sox: Just how old is Jose Contreras anyway?
Prospectus: Better not tell you now.

In a fun essay that tries to explain the whirlwind that is Kenny Williams, the Beep said that last year Contreras looked like a “pitcher of indeterminate age who had been used up.” That seems about right. The guy might be 40. He might be 50. He might be Satchel Paige’s older brother.

What I liked about the essay most was that it gave Kenny credit for that 2005 miracle — I thought many people refused to give him credit because what he did SHOULD NOT have worked. More or less every move made leading into that World Series triumph was, at best, odd and, at worst, insane. But, hey, things worked. It wasn’t easy to understand why he traded for Juan Uribe with his sub-.300 on-base percentage, but Uribe came to Chicago,* showed a little power and, for a while anyway, played good shortstop.

*Here’s a fun Uribe stat for you: Since coming to Chicago, he has stolen 15 bases and been caught 27 times. That seems more than a trend … last year he stole one base and was caught nine times. NINE TIMES. Those have to be busted hit-and-runs, right? I mean at this point, nobody’s letting Juan Uribe attempt any steals, right?

Back to Williams. As the Beep points out, he signed Tadahito Iguchi, which was a very positive move in 2005. He traded for Freddy Garcia when many thought he was done, and Garcia gave them a solid 116 ERA+. He traded for the ancient Contreras after he was a complete bust in New York, and got 15 pitcher wins and posted a a 125 ERA+. He summoned a bullpen from the army of the undead, signing Dustin Hermanson and Cliff Politte for relatively little, traded for Neal Cotts and Damaso Marte, found Bobby Jenks at the Sizzler dessert buffet table. That bullpen gave up 347 hits in 401 innings and posted a 3.23 ERA.

Prospectus does go on to say that the moves have stopped working and will likely never work again … it was sort of a Buster Douglas knocking out Mike Tyson sort of mirage. No matter. Buster Douglas DID knock out Mike Tyson, and I think Kenny should have gotten more applause. Sadly, it’s too late now because the White Sox look bad.

Cincinnati Reds: Will the Reds deal Griffey early in 2008?
Prospectus: Very doubtful.

Bill James in his Gold Mine has a fun essay about “targeting,” which shows how many more players in baseball history have had 100 RBIs (100) in a season vs. 99 RBIs (79), or hit .300 (195) vs. .299 (107) or won 20 games (251) vs. 19 games (216). It’s extremely rare, except around those target numbers, to find MORE people with the higher numbers. Well, that’s human nature.

Griffey is seven home runs shy of 600. He’s from Cincinnati. Because of this, the Reds are really in a position where they probably feel like they CANNOT trade him, even though he still has value, even though his contract is a burden, even though he would probably fit better in the American League where he could play at least some DH which might help avoid some injuries. It certainly would make a lot of sense, for instance, for Griffey go to back to Seattle, where his bat and persona could make a huge difference in a team that sees itself as a real contender (and should). Obviously, the Yankees would be in play too. The Reds could get something pretty good, I think.

But, again, can a team trade a hometown hero seven homers shy of 600? No. “It’s unlikely that Griffey’s going to be dealt anywhere in the immediate future,” the Beep says, “but once that milestone is reached, all bets are off.”

Cleveland Indians: Will Travis Hafner bounce back?
Prospectus: My reply is no.

It was actually this question that gave me the idea to do this post … the question is right on the cover of the Prospectus. There’s a picture of Hafner and the words: “Will he bounce back?” My usual problem with questions like this — when they’re on the cover of books or in headlines or whatever — is that often they go unanswered in the body of work. “Can Obama Win Pennsylvania?” That’s a headline. To me the story should then say, “No, he cannot,” or “Yes he can.” But the story never says that. The story gives you all uncertain polling information, all sorts of blah quotes from both sides, and then it explains that he might not have to win Pennsylvania in order to WIN Pennsylvania and other vague sentiments.

Not the Beep. Will Hafner bounce back? Beep says “Nope.” I mean, they couch it a little better. The words are: “It’s possible that Hafner doesn’t have another of those (great) seasons in him.” And “Concerned about Hafner’s huge drop in production last year? You should be.” The chart is even more clear: PECOTA has him hitting .274/.383/.490 with 28 homers and 97 RBIs this season. That’s an OK season — well, it would be out of this world for someone like Tony Pena Jr., but it’s nowhere near Pronk’s .308/.439/.659 year of 2006. And PECOTA also gives him a 36% chance of collapsing, which means it could be worse.

The Beep says he’s 31 old player skills and points out that Boog Powell, Hafner’s top comparable, was done at 31.

Colorado Rockies: Will the Rockies continue to compete?
Prospectus: Signs point to yes.

The Beep: ‘As much as last season’s breakthrough might have seemed like a Cinderella story, the Rockies have finally arrived, not as come sort of peculiarly adapted mile-high construction, but as an organization that put together all of the working parts necessary to create a well-balanced ballclub that can contend at any elevation.“

So there you go. I have to admit; I kind of thought they were a bit of a fluke and will take a step back this year. But I always trust Prospectus more than my own instincts.

Detroit Tigers: Is Dontrelle Willis finished as an effective starter?
Prospectus: Don’t count on it.

I love Dontrelle Willis. I mean, seriously, what’s not to love? He’s fun, has charisma, gives you innings, pitches his guts out, outperforms his stuff and so on. He really struggled in 2007, though, and since a lot of people in the game thought he was winning with smoke and mirrors anyway, they think he’s run out of tricks. He’s only 26 years old, but I know a lot of people in the game who are pretty sure he’s finished.

The Beep though expects a rebound. PECOTA has him 11-11 with a 4.55 ERA, which may not seem like a huge rebound, but it’s a whole lot better than 10-15, 5.17 in a pitcher’s park in an inferior league. The Beep suggests that pitching in front of the National League’s worst defense last season did not help him at all and that Detroit’s superior defense (even with Miggy Cabrera coming over to the Tigers with him) could make him, ”the biggest winner in the winter’s biggest trade.

Florida Marlins: Hanley Ramirez is a REALLY bad shortstop, isn’t he?
Prospectus: Concentrate and ask again.

Last year, Ramirez scored -7 runs in Prospectus’ defensive rankings, which is really, really bad. To give you an idea, Derek Jeter only scored a -5, and we all know that when it comes to defensive statistics, Jeter generally scores roughly about the same as a blind barcalounger (as opposed, you know, to the sighted barcaloungers). So to score WORSE than Jeter is difficult to do. In John Dewan’s plus/minus system, Ramirez scored -37, meaning he made roughly 37 fewer plays than an average shortstop. You can bet Dontrelle Willis is happy to get away from this guy.

However, in the Beep 2008 projections, they have Ramirez scoring +3 runs defensively and that’s really quite good … Tony Pena last year played more or less every day almost entirely for his defense, and he scored a +3. I don’t know if this is just a blip in ths system or what — certainly the Beep authors make it very clear in their essays that Hanley is a brutal shortstop on his way to becoming an outfielder — but if he scores a +3 defense in 2008, he might make a play as the best player in the league.

Houston Astros: Woody WIlliams?
Prospectus: Don’t count on it.

I loved this headline on MLB.com: “Williams left to wonder what’s wrong.” Hmm. He’s 41 — and I say this as a 41-year-old man myself who woke up this morning with something wrong with my neck. He’s a fly-ball pitcher who gave up 35 home runs last year. I’m not sure there’s a lot of mystery here.

Also in the story, it said that manager Cecil Cooper is “a little bit” concerned that Williams had a 15.26 ERA in his first three spring training starts. Yeah, you know, I’m a little bit concerned that Mrs. O’Leary’s cow kicked over a lantern. The Beep says: “This is not going to end well.”

Kansas City Royals: Will Brian Bannister continue to have success?
Prospectus: Very doubtful.

Damn. I appreciate that Banny relied on a .264 batting average on balls in play last year, but the Beep is downright mean to my guy. Not only does PECOTA predict a 6-8 record with a 5.15 ERA and 59 strikeouts to 42 walks (ugh), but it gives him a 55% collapse chance. You mean, mean, mean Baseball Prospectus people.

I’m hoping (and expecting) that next year, the Beep will allow Brian to write a “How I beat the system,” essay when he wins 15 games with a sub-4.00 ERA. I’ll even co-write it with him. Maybe we’ll make it a book. Bannyball.

Los Angeles Angels at Anaheim in the Garden of Good and Evil: Twenty walks this year for Howie Kendrick?
Prospectus: Outlook not so good.

PECOTA has Kendrick walking 18 times in 499 plate-appearances which, believe it or not, would be a HUGE increase from last season, when he walked 9 times 354 plate appearances.

I’m fascinated by guys who walk this little, I can’t tell you why. There’s something about that persona, that, “I don’t care what this pitcher throws, I’m swatting,” attitude that entertains me. Kendrick has walked 18 times in 646 major league PAs, and in the minors he walked 77 times in more than 1,500. I remember when the Royals had Mark Quinn, and the guy simply refused to take a walk, refused, it just wasn’t in his nature. When he finally did walk, someone set off fireworks at Kauffman Stadium. Seriously. I still find that amusing.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Could Nomah be doing more damage to the Dodgers?
Prospectus: My sources say no.

First, there are the Nomar Garciaparra PECOTA numbers for 2008: .283/.337/.411. Those are roughly the numbers he put up in 2007, and they’re brutal for a major league first baseman, which is where he started last year, and not really much better for a Major League third baseman, where he finished the year.

I always liked Nomah — as a younger player he was one of the best right-handed hitters I ever saw. He hit the ball harder on a regular basis than just about anyone. And the guy had a very nice rebound year in 2006, and I was happy for him then too. More and more, though, that’s looking like a last hurrah, and even in that rebound year, he only played 122 games.

The big problem with the Dodgers love affair with Nomah is not Nomah’s startlingly average numbers, but that all along the way, he has been blocking good prospects. At first base, he was blocking James Loney, who didn’t get the call until June and then hit .331/381/.538 the rest of the year. Keeping him in the minor leagues so that Nomar could waste at-bats (Loney hit .380 in AAA the year before at age 22) was criminal.

Then they moved Nomah to third, apparently so he could block Andy LaRoche, another big-time prospect. Fortunately for the Dodgers, LaRoche busted his thumb on a pickoff play this spring, so he’s out, so the Dodgers can put Nomah out there at third base without guilt (assuming Nomah gets healthy).