Joe Posnanski

I’m a big fan of the bubble in college basketball. To me, the NCAA Tournament bubble has to be the most famous bubble in America now. Sure, you have the economic bubble, the Dot Com bubble, speech bubbles, soap bubbles, double bubble, Hubba Bubba, bubble wrap*, bubble baths, the bubble boy from Seinfeld (“Sorry, the correct answer is Moops!”), the bubble that naive people live in and so on. I think the NCAA tournament bubble has taken the overall lead.

*I cannot tell you why I find this to be strangely enjoyable.

In any case, the reason I like the NCAA bubble is that it can create savage arguments, fistfights, get friends to stop speaking to each other, etc. And this year’s most savage bubble talk revolves around the Kansas State men’s basketball team. You probably know that Kansas State has the most electrifying player in college basketball this season, the presumptive No. 1 pick in next year’s NBA draft, Michael Beasley. This guy is so good he just racked up 39 against Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse* in a game where he was in early foul trouble and didn’t even seem to think he played all that well. He’s averaged 27 points and 13 rebounds as a freshman — it’s ludicrous, really.

The seven coolest places I’ve ever watched a college basketball game:
1. Allen Fieldhouse
2. Pauley Pavillion
3. Carmichael Auditorium
4. Cameron Indoor Stadium
5. Rupp Arena
6. Assembly Hall
7. Gallager-Iba.

Honorable mention: The old Ohio State arena, Vanderbilt, the old Mizzou arena, the old Mineshaft of my school UNC Charlotte.
Place I’m dying to see a game: The Palestra.

Coolest basketball thing I’ve ever seen: It was actually a college game, but the cool thing didn’t have much to do with basketball anyway. It was at a huge high school basketball game — Lower Richland vs. Eau Claire in Columbia, S.C., packed arena, 12,000 or more, to see high school sensation Stanley Roberts, who would go on to a decent NBA career. Then he was a phenomenon so there wasn’t an empty seat in the house. The place was absolutely electric.

But here’s what I remember … halftime of that game, and there was a double-dutch jump rope exhibition, which was pretty entertaining. One of the girls in the exhibition was a bit heavyset — her job seemed to be rope twirling. She didn’t do anything else. The exhibition was wrapping up, and then she got ready to jump. The place buzzed — I’m telling you, it was incredible. And then she jumped in, and she was AMAZING, and I can tell you that I’ve been to Super Bowls, to Rose Bowls, to Michael Jordan’s comeback, to Duke-Carolina and Kansas-Missouri games that went down to the last minute, to Yankee Stadium when Derek Jeter hit the November midnight home run, to the Olympics when Rulon Gardner beat the unbeatable Russian and Michael Johnson ran faster than anyone has ever run and Muhammad Ali lit the torch, to the Masters when Tiger Woods reinvented golf. I have NEVER AGAIN heard it as loud as that day in Columbia, S.C. when that girl jumped into the double-dutch rope.

The trouble is, that while Beasley has been a revelation, Kansas State’s season hasn’t been all that special. It has had some nice peaks — the Wildcats FINALLY beat Kansas at home after a disheartening 25-year gap — but it’s had some uninspiring valleys too. The Wildcats are now 18-10, they have that one nice victory over Kansas, they have one nice road win at Oklahoma, and they have one blowout victory over Texas A&M, a victory that loses impact by the minute as A&M collapses and … well, that’s about it. They also have road losses at Nebraska, Missouri and Texas Tech, they were destroyed at Xavier and beaten pretty good by George Mason. They are 3-6 against Top 50 RPI teams, and if A&M continues to tumble out of the Top 50 … that suddenly becomes 2-6 which, my accounting background tells me, is worse. They have lost four games in a row and are limping to the finish line. They also have one of the toughest schedules in America. It’s a mixed bag.

If Kansas State was a normal baseball team, it would be plopped right on the NCAA bubble. You only have to go back to last year — when the Wildcats won 22 games, won 10 games in the Big 12 conference, won a tournament game and … got left at home. This year, if they win their last two games they will be 20-10 aft the end of the season with 10 victories in the conference. Very bubbly.

The Wildcats are also ranked 42nd in the RPI. To give you a little history:

2007:
41. Florida State, left at home despite winning 20 games.
43. Drexel, left at home despite 22-8 and 7-3 in final 10 games.
44. Purdue, goes to NCAA Tournament with 21-11 record.
45. Utah State, left at home with 22-11 record.
46. Clemson, left at home with 21 wins and five Top 50 victories.
47. Vanderbilt goes to NCAA Tournament with 19-11 record.
48. Alabama, left at home with 20-11 record.

2006:
41. Kentucky goes to the NCAA Tournament with 21-12 record.
43. St, Joe’s left at home with 18-13 mark.
44. Texas A&M goes to NCAA Tournament with 21-8 record.
45. Arkansas goes to NCAA Tournament with 22-9 record.
46. Utah State goes to NCAA Tournament with 22-8 record.
47. Michigan left at home with 18-10 record.
49. Maryland left at home with 18-12 record.

2005
41. Texas goes to NCAA Tournament with 19-10 record
42. Iowa goes to the NCAA Tournament with 21-11 record
43. Miami (OH) left at home at 18-10.
45. Wichita State left at home with 20-9
46. Buffalo left at home with 22-9
49 UAB goes to NCAA Tournament with 21-10

2004
41. Arizona goes to NCAA Tournament at 20-9
43. Utah State left at home despite 24-3 record
45. South Carolina goes to NCAA Tournament at 23-10
46. Texas El Paso goes to NCAA Tournament at 22-7
47. Richmond goes to NCAA Tournament at 20-12
48. Georgia left at home at 16-13
49. Notre Dame left at home at 17-12

2003
42. Seton Hall left at home at 17-12
43. Gonzaga goes to NCAA Tournament at 23-8
46. Colorado goes to NCAA Tournament at 20-11
47. Indiana goes to NCAA Tournament at 20-12
48. Texas Tech left at home with 18-11 record
49. Boston College left at home with 18-11 record.

2002
43. Villanova left at home at 17-12
44. Mississippi goes to NCAA Tournament at 19-10
46. Arkansas left at home at 14-15
47. South Carolina left at home at 17-13
48. UNLV left at home at 20-9
49. Virginia left at home at 17-11

As you can see, being in the 40s in RPI is risky business. By my count, since 2002, just 17 of 49 teams in the RPI 40s got at-large bids. It does seem to help if you:

1. Come from a major conference.
2. Win 20 games or more.

Kansas State has the major conference. And the Wildcats will get 20 wins if they take care of business this week, beat Colorado at home on Tuesday and win at Iowa State on Saturday. My guess is if they win both those games, they will get in with reasonable comfort (they also could, conceivably, sneak into the high 30s in RPI where their odds improve dramatically).

However if Kansas State would happen to lose at Iowa State — unlikely, but not impossible considering some of the Wildcats’ road losses already this year — then I think the Wildcats are on the outside looking in and will need to impress some people at the Big 12 Tournament. (I’m assuming that Kansas State will beat Colorado by about 70 points at home Tuesday night … I’ll be there and I have a hunch that the Wildcats are about to unload some frustration. Obviously if Kansas State loses that game then they have BIG problems.).

OK, so that’s fairly typical bubble talk. What’s different about this team? It’s Michael Beasley. The question here is … even if Kansas State loses this week, even if the Wildcats have a less-than-inspiring NCAA case, even if the committee would leave them at home under normal circumstance, well, these aren’t normal circumstances. Would the tournament committee leave the most exciting player in college basketball at home? Would they really have their tournament without the biggest star in the game? Kansas State, in my mind, can put the question to rest with two victories this week. But another stumble … and the committee will be very much on the spot.