Crazy Preseason Prediction #3
Posted: February 20th, 2008 | Filed under: Baseball | 74 Comments »
You might recall that last year, my crazy preseason predictions included:
1. The Gil Meche signing — despite the beating the Royals took nationally — was a good signing.
Result: It’s too soon to project victory on this one — Gil signed a five-year, $55 million deal — but I sure like the way the polls are looking. Meche set personal bests in innings pitched, ERA, struck out 156 and walked 62, and he did it under quite a bit of duress. People were watching him, just waiting to call him a bust, and instead he took a pretty big step forward. The guy has electric stuff — one scout told me on Wednesday that he has Top 5 stuff in the American League* — and he really seems to be more confident and comfortable this year. Don’t know what that means, but there is pretty much no doubt in my mind that if he was a free agent now coming off of LAST season, he would get more than $11 million per year.
*The scout told me — and he was sort of talking off the top of his head — that in no particular order the starters with the best stuff in the American League are: Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander, Erik Bedard and Gil Meche. I suspect if he had time to think about it and really look over rosters, his list would have looked different, but I thought it was telling that Meche came to mind. In my mind, the guy with the best stuff in the American League — at least from what I saw last year — is Cleveland Fausto Carmona. He’s a guy who I watch and say, “How in the hell are you supposed to hit THAT guy?”
2. Ambiorix Burgos will break the hearts of New York Mets fans.
Result: My friends* will tell you that I’m almost never right about anything. If you think about it, that doesn’t really make them very good friends, does it? Let me put that on my list: Get new friends. OK. But they’re right. I’m wrong — wait, I figured this out the other day — 92.6% of the time. No, I’m sorry, that’s wrong.
I bring this up because frankly, I could not have been more right about Ambiorix Burgos. Finally. I got it. You might remember Burgos came to Mets’ spring training last year, and on one of the early days he was blowing 100 mph fastballs by hitters and leaving everyone slack-jawed. I got an email from my dear friend Mike Vaccaro that basically wondered how in the hell the Royals could have traded a guy with THAT GOOD an arm.
My reply: Just wait. I’d seen Burgos’ act up close and personal. And on my blog at that time, I also asked: “By the way, what kind of goof throws the ball 100 mph before the end of February? I’m not crazy, right? Isn’t this like walking up to a doctor and saying, ‘Hey, would you mind cutting my ulnar collateral ligament? Thanks.’”
What happened? Burgos got sent down to Triple-A early. Then he needed to have elbow ligament replacement surgery.
I don’t like to brag, but man … when you’re like 1 for 284,372 on predictions, you better play up that one.
*You know who has a lot of friends? John McCain. Have you noticed that? And no, I’m not talking about any of the recent talk. I’m saying that everywhere he goes, he keeps saying, “And when that happens, my friends, they will raise your taxes,” and “My friend, you don’t want to know what would happen if we pulled out of Iraq now,” and “Let me tell you my friend, that the McRib sandwich is indeed an excellent sandwich, I believe that my friends at Esquire got that one right.” There is no doubt in my mind that the “My Friend McCain” drinking game is going to be huge this election season … though perhaps not as huge as the “How many times will he say ‘hope,” Barack Obama drinking game.
I’m also aware that longtime reader and genetic baseball wonder Oddibe Kerfeld has claimed to be able to tell from my various posts that I am a Barack Obama supporter. I will not confirm or deny this. I can only tell that I am withholding my endorsement until someone offers me a cabinet post.
3. Todd Helton will hit .400.
Result: Yeah, uh, that didn’t exactly happen.
OK, well, it’s a new year, and so far in this baseball preseason you will note that I have predicted:
1. Emil Brown, given the at-bats, will post more or less the same numbers as Jose Guillen.
I made this crazy prediction when I was in an emotional state. The Royals signed Jose Guillen for $11 million per, and I just wasn’t crazy about the signing. Then, the Royals released Emil Brown, who provided a font of column-writing humor with his occasional outfield dropkicks and home plate celebrations after hitting warning track fly balls AND was probably better offensively and defensively than people generally wanted to believe. It was too choice a prediction for me to avoid.
Now, I have to admit that I have since spent some time watching Jose Guilen at spring training here in Surprise and … the guy’s got a quick bat. I’m no scout — no, really, I’m not — but he does seem to whip that bat through the strike zone. This gives me pause … I must concede that after watching Emil for two years and watching Guillen for just two days, to my lyin’ eyes, there really is no real comparison between their offensive talents. Guillen is on another talent planet.
But, hey, once you make a bold and crazy preseason prediction, you have to stick to it. Plus, Guillen can always go wrong — he is suspended for the first 15 days and he’s always a threat to go cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs during a losing streak. So I have no choice but to stick with the prediction, but I will say here and now that if indeed Emil puts up better numbers than Guillen, I won’t boast about it next year with the same enthusiasm as my Ambiorix Burgos prediction, because I don’t really believe it anymore.
2. Johan Santana will win the National League Cy Young and throw the Mets first no-hitter this year.
This obviously is not a crazy prediction — I suspect most people think Santana will have a big year. Still, I think the no-hitter part is pretty bold. And I really want to make it clear here: I have this hunch that Santana will have an INCREDIBLE season for the Mets. I’m talking a Pedro type, 22-3, 1.74 ERA, give-me-the-MVP-too type of season. He’s the best pitcher in the game, he’s going to perhaps a better pitching ballpark (it’s close) and I just think he will be the type to really light it up in the New York mayhem.*
*I’ve been trying to think of a few good Johan Santana back-page headlines to suggest to the good folks at the New York Post and Daily News and have to say that I’m striking out right now. The problem is — you know how sometimes you have something in your head already that won’t let anything else in. Like you’re trying to think of think of the guy’s name from the movie “Fargo,” only you keep finding yourself thinking “Steve Balboni?” Well, that’s my problem here — I keep trying to think of good backpage headlines for Santana, only instead I keep thinking about the cruel but apt back-page headline for Royals invitee and Japanese icon Hideo Nomo, which is, of course, “Sadly, He Can’t Pitch Nomo.”
So, now it’s time to unveil my next crazy prediction. I get the sense that this is actually a pretty trendy prediction right now, but I can’t help it.
3. The Tampa Bay Rays will contend for a playoff spot into late August, early September.
I’m, no doubt, writing this off emotion. Here’s what happened: I was looking through the Baseball Weekly Spring Training previews while eating my tuna melt at JB’s in the greater Surprise area. You may wonder what the tuna sandwich has to do with anything … I’ll tell you: It was delicious. Maybe it’s just because I was starving, you know, after my horrible U.S. Air non-eating experiences. But I have to tell you, it was a good tuna melt, you know, the bread was warm and toasted just right, the tuna was not too dry and not too mayonnaisey (yes, that’s a word), they didn’t flood the thing with cheese which is always a major tuna melt error. Delicious. JB’s didn’t pay me for this endorsement.
Yes. Delicious. Yum.
Oh, wait, I’m sorry, where was I? Oh yeah, so I’m reading Baseball Weekly, and it has those fun charts that show you who is competing for jobs at each position. And I come across … the Toronto Blue Jays. I’ve long been a quasi Blue Jays fan; I think when you’re 10 years old (as I was in 1977) and expansion happens, you just subconsciously pick your favorite expansion team. I chose the Blue Jays over the Mariners in part because I didn’t know what a Mariner was. Also we went as a family to Toronto either that year or the next, and we went to some really cool museum of technology that was the first place where I saw the pool table where no matter where you hit the cue ball, it will bounce back and hit other ball. That had a large impact on me. Also, later, I liked Jesse Barfield.
In any case, I started casually looking at this year’s Toronto’s team. I noticed that they’re picked to finish third again, and I nodded, my gut feeling has long been that you can pencil the Blue Jays into third place until the year 2084. Then I looked at the team and I realized, much to my surprise, that I CANNOT STAND the way this team is put together. I mean, I really, really, really despise the philosophy behind this team. Frank Thomas? David Eckstein? Reed Johnson? Lyle Overbay? A.J. Burnett? Let me just say: Ugh. And I don’t know what to make of Vernon Wells now — I was always a fan but he was brutal last season. I don’t know what to make of Scott Rolen now — he’s got injuries, and he has that 89 OPS+ last year. B.J. Ryan’s coming off the injury. Really, you take away Halladay and Alex Rios, I’m not sure they have another championship caliber guy* on this team.
*I want to take a few words here to explain my philosophy on “championship caliber guy” because we’ve been talking about it here at spring training (and also I don’t want people to think I dislike Dusty McGowan or Aaron Hill or whoever else , I like McGowan and Hill quite a bit).
To me, when you look at a team, it’s fun to go around and ask, “Is this person a championship caliber guy?” Meaning — well, let’s take Kansas City’s David DeJesus as an example because he was the one we were discussing down here in Surprise. The question is: Can you win a championship with David DeJesus?
There are, best I can tell, four answers here.
1. Yes.
2. No.
3. It depends on his role.
4. It depends on what he has around him.
Simple enough. The first answer is, “Yes, you can win with DeJesus,” the second is, “No you can’t.” The third and fourth are qualifications you often hear. For instance, with DeJesus, you might say, “Yes, you can win with him, but not if he’s playing center,” or, “You could win with him if he platoons and gets about 400 at-bats,” or “You could win with him if both your corner outfielders hit 35 home runs,” or whatever.
Well, my idea of a true championship caliber guy is … no qualifications. No exceptions. No excuses. Is Albert Pujols a championship caliber player? Yes. Is Angel Berroa? No. To me, last year’s Red Sox team had eight championship caliber players in key roles — Manny, Papi, Lowell, Varitek, Drew, Beckett, Schilling and Papelbon. That’s an enormous number. Maybe my next post will go through each team and list off how many CCG’s are on that team. In Boston, after those eight, lots of guys — Matsuzaka, Pedroia, Youkilis, Wakefield, several relievers — played at championship level. But there’s a difference with that. I don’t know if that makes any sense at all. But I’m moving on now.
I don’t want you get to the idea that I’m burying the Blue Jays. I think it’s certainly possible that those veteran guys like Rolen, Thomas, Eckstein will have good years, Burnett too, and the Blue Jays will have a nice year (and finish third). I’m just saying that I don’t like the makeup of the team. It’s not the kind of team that I would like to root for as a fan.
On the opposite page of the Blue Jays (in every way) was the Tampa Bay Angel Rays. And let me just tell you … I LOVE LOVE LOVE LOVE this team. I mean, Baseball Weekly picked them to finish last (again) and to finish 30th in baseball (again) and so on. I don’t see it. I looked at the players, and here’s what I see.
In left: Carl Crawford is a major stud, one of my favorite players in the game.
In center: B.J. Upton, who put up a 136 OPS+ last year, banged 24 homers, stole 22 bases, and is only 23 years old.
At third: Evan Longoria. I was talking to another scout down here (what do you think I do at spring training — I pretty much talk to scouts 24 hours a day) and he said that Longoria is the best prospect in baseball, bar none. Better than Cameron Maybin. Better than Jacoby Ellsbury. The best … a guy he says can be BETTER than David Wright. Sure, it’s scout talk but … that’s three potential franchise players in the lineup.
At first: Carlos Pena. Make it four. Here are the first basemen in baseball history who have had a .400 OBP, a .625 slugging, 45+ homers, 120+ RBIs in a season and 100+ walks.
– Lou Gehrig (4 times)
– Jimmie Foxx (2 times)
– Mark McGwire (2 times)
– Carlos Pena
– Willie McCovey
– Hank Greenberg
– Ryan Howard
This is only to get the point across that Pena had a remarkable 2007 season. Some think he will go backward– and maybe he will. I don’t know, though. He’s in pretty good company. He’s not quite 30. He may have figured it out.
No. 1 pitcher: Scott Kazmir. Just awesome. Twenty three and led the AL in strikeouts. The Koufax comparison’s looking better and better.
No. 2 pitcher: James Shields. And here, as Bill James said, is Drysdale to Kazmir’s Koufax. He’s a big right-hander who strikes people out and throws inside and seems fearless. And he’s 26.
To me, that’s six big-time players — that’s as good a young core as anywhere in baseball, isn’t it? And then you throw in starter Matt Garza … I’m not as much in love with him as some people are, but there are those who see him as a dominant starter. Throw in Rocco Baldelli, who can’t stay healthy but is still only 26 and not so long ago people were saying he was better than Crawford. Throw in pitcher David Price, last year’s No. 1 pick who had the jaw-dropping slider and could be in the big leagues this year. I mean, heck, I don’t know, I just think there’s an awful lot to get excited about with this team.
Baseball Weekly might be right about the Rays still being the worst team in baseball. As mentioned, I’m usually wrong. But if given the choice, I would MUCH rather be a Rays fan than a Jays fan right now. And I just think this team will get rolling, a little bit like the Brewers did. Of course, the Rays have that crazy Yankees-Red Sox division, which means they will probably have another dreadful September. But I’m on record. August 25th, there’s pennant fever in the I-4 Corridor. You heard it here first. And last.
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Joe, your predictions seem more off-your-rocker than last season… but that’s probably due to hindsight.
Regarding the Santana no-no bid: I think he’ll be as big of a no-brainer for the Cy this season as A-Rod was for MVP last season, but he’s only thrown 6 CG’s his whole career.
I’m also not high on the Blue Jays for the playoffs, when you consider the Eckstein/Rolen combo. And why would J.P. Ricciardi sign Eckstein when he already traded for a similar player in Marco Scutaro and had a young, promising SS in John McDonald? No sense really
I’d like to ask one thing of you, Joe. Please don’t forget the Devil Rays. It sickens me to think that they’re not the Devil Rays anymore. Please keep calling them that. For me.
Devil Rays forever!
Bay Ray? What the hell? Who decided that needed to happen?
John McDonald young and promising? If that’s sarcasm I don’t get it.
Anyway, I think you’re both right and wrong. The Rays won’t finish last — they will finish ahead of the Orioles — but they won’t be competitive.
I’m a Jays fan and I’m pretty excited about a front 4 of Halladay/Burnett/McGowan/Marcum, but I can see how the offense isn’t too exciting.
Joe, you’ll be pleased to know the Ontario Science Centre is still around. I think the pool table is still there too:)
Joe has a man-crush on Emil Brown. Joe feels jilted in that D. Moore broke them up.
I predict Joe will develop a man-crush for Trey Hilman. – TL
The basic tabloid Santana headline will be a riff (heh) on Carlos.
You know, “Supernatural!”, “Black Magic Hurler”, “Forget About [the opposition]“, etc.
Of course, given that I would root for the Devil’s Own Nine against the Mets, my most fervent hope for the season is that he blows up in some way, in which case it would have to be:
Oy Vey (como va).
Perhaps in his Atlanta-LA manifestation J.D. Drew was championship caliber but in his Boston manifestation?
I maintain no respect for a hitter that can’t hit at least .280 in Fenway.
I’m on board with all Joe’s predictions. I just get the feeling with the DEVIL Rays that it’s a little too early for that much optimism. I mean they still have to learn how to win right? Or is that just the excuse the Royals make?
My crazy prediction? Royals finish 3rd right around .500. And if Cleveland and Detroit somehow fall apart, then maybe, just maybe… But wow, those 2 are way too strong this year. There’s always next year I guess.
How is Crawford a huge stud? Crawford has a poor eye and little power. It doesn’t mean he isn’t a fine player hitting .300/.350/.420 with 50 sb has value, but it doesn’t make you a franchise player.
Also, on Evan Longoria vs. David Wright
David Wright at 21 hit .293/.322/.525 in 263 ab for the Mets
Evan Longoria at 21 hit .307/.403/.528 in 381 ab for the Rays AA affiliate and .269/.398/490 in 104 ab for the Rays AAA affiliate.
Also, Longoria has nowhere near the baserunning or fielding skills of Wright.
Further,
Jay Bruce hit better than Longoria at the same level despite being a year younger and can play center field. How a scout could put Longoria ahead of Bruce is mindblowing.
I’m with you with most of this stuff, but I really don’t think JD Drew can be listed as a championship caliber player…. if I remember right wasn’t it a platoon situation in RF for a while? Although I guess that could have been cause JD was injured. Again.
Also, can we not agree that O’s are clearly worse then the Devil Rays and the Blue Jays. I mean if they trade Brian Roberts, can you even name their starting infield without looking?
As a Red Sox fan, I am way more concerned about playing the Devil Ray’s 18 times a year as oppose to the O’s.
I appreciate the stats rush, but, as a Mets fan, I have to say that the prediction was quite nearly unconscionably McCain-conservative (yes he is one, he just also has a history of letting it out of his pants on dubious occasion [not a political issue for me, but I think for THEM] and angling backwards sometimes at the truth [not a conservative virtue since Reagan]…but I digress, and McCain has been a great national leader on the issue of campaign finance reform over the years and unless Barack gets ahold of that he’s not going to have as much time to talk about Iraq…
Yes, Santana will throw a no-hitter, in Shea, this year, but it will be the Mets second. Maine will throw the first, and third (at Petco), perhaps walking seven.
Jeanne Dixon flashback.
Augh…
You quickly forget
the Sox silent assassin
H Okajima
Perhaps in his Atlanta-LA manifestation J.D. Drew was championship caliber but in his Boston manifestation?
I maintain no respect for a hitter that can’t hit at least .280 in Fenway.
I reject the notion that batting average means all that much, but since that’s your chosen metric, I’ll just point out that JD Drew hit .284 in Fenway last year (and .281 for his career), and leave it at that.
Joe,
I’m right on the Obama vote. We read you so much that its easy to put the clues together. It’s like “micro-targeting.”
I think whoever the next president is should name you as the Blog Czar. You could help ensure that the internet remains basically free of governmental inteference and can work to promote lengthy blogs that are enjoyed by baseball fans around the globe. I think this department would be a much better use of taxpayer dollars than half of the federal agencies we currently have. Of course, Ron Paul would scream that its illegal because no where in the Constitution does it say the Govt can have a website or even a computer. Dennis Kucinich would oppose it because he’d rather have a Department of Peace (no joke) and perhaps a Department of Veganism and Mushroom Consumption.
That guy in Fargo, by the way, is Steve Buscemi, also Mr. Pink in “Reservoir Dogs” and Tony Blundetto on “The Sopranos”. So your brain wasn’t all that far off.
I agree with you Joe about the (fill in the blank) Rays. They will be just like the Brewers were in 2007. Quick start, but no recent history of success meant they will fold in “..the heat of the chase for the gonfalon….”
Dennis could be the official Dashboard Icon.
JD Drew as a championship caliber player, Joe? I’m not so sure about that. Though I think that has more to do with his injury history than his tools.
BTW, did you notice that JD has a new gimmick for staying healthy this year? Bowling. Apparently it strengthens the back. Last year he said that he slept in a hyperberic chamber, this year bowling.
He went from King of Pop to Kingpin in about a year.
And I agree with the D-Rays pick for third. Headline will be something like “Rays of Sunshine” or “Rays of Hope” or “Rays the Roof”.
But the Blue Jays look like a car with four wobbly wheels and I think that this is the year that they come flying off. And despite what the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo says, I’m thinking that JP Ricchardi might be a bit overrated.
And the less said about the Orioles the better. The beltway baseball fan has a chance to see 200 losses this year. Though it would be interesting to see which AL/NL fan base will see more losses: Baltimore/Washington or Oakland/San Francisco?
I’ve never understood referring to the Nats and the O’s as “Beltway” teams. Look at a map: Baltimore has its own beltway. Fun fact: Baltimore is a real city and not a suburb of Washington, DC.
That said, both teams will be dreadful.
I’m a little disappointed in this Bill Simmons-esque “championship caliber guy” nonsense coming from someone as otherwise-brilliant as Joe. What on earth can that possibly mean? The real answer for every single player in the world has to be your #4, right? I mean, can you really win with a team made up of Pujols plus seven Neifi Perezes and twelve Livan Hernandezes? Obviously not. That, then, is a “qualification” and an “exception” (and, when the Cardinals lose with a team just a little better than that this year, will also be an “excuse”).
I guess I understand the impulse to use nonsense terms like that, but all you really mean by “championship caliber guy” is “great player.” Why not just say that?
I had the same reaction as Bill to “Championship Caliber Guy.” It sounds like Simmons (not in a good way), and doesn’t seem to mean anything more than “great player.” I love you, Joe (I even bought the book this week), but I’m not feeling this one.
Even beyond the nomenclature, I’m not sure I even agree with the premise – I immediately thought of Todd Benzinger catching the final out of the 1990 W.S.
The 2006 Cards won a championship with a decidedly non-championship-caliber shortstop . . . who even won the series MVP. From what I can tell, Pujols was the only “championship caliber” player in that lineup.
The 2005 White Sox won with three guys with an OPS+ > 100 — and one was Tad Iguchi.
I think that’s a good call on the Rays finishing third, Joe. I also like this kid Andy Sonnanstine as a #4 starter. He seemed to really find his groove over the last couple months last season, winning 5 of his last 7 starts, including beating the Sox and Yanks once each. And since pitching Wins are mostly meaningless, let me qualify that: in those 5 Ws, he gave up 3, 2, 0, 2, 1 earned runs each, and struck out 29. Not bad for a #4 starter.
Of course, the real question with that team will always be the bullpen. But as a Sox fan, I don’t automatically chalk up 12 easy Ws against them in a season anymore.
When I hear “championship caliber player,” I think of that question in the Keltner Test: could you win a pennant/championship if this guy was your best player?
Of the 8 guys Joe listed for the Red Sox, I’d say…2 fit that description. Papi and Beckett. Papelbon is an amazing closer, but if he’s your best player, then I don’t think you have a pennant-winning team. MBM obviously used to fit this description, but at his age (and with injury concerns) I don’t think he fits the bill anymore.
Really, does any team have more than three guys who fit this description? If Pronk becomes Pronk again, the Indians might have four (Hafner/Sabathia/Carmona/Sizemore), but after last year I wouldn’t put Hafner in that category anymore.
Oh, and obviously this only works if you’re using a fairly realistic team. I mean, if Victor Martinez is your best player and Dustin McGowan is your best pitcher, then you probably aren’t a contender. But if everyone on the team hits like Victor and everyone pitches like Dusty, well, that team is going to cruise to the pennant, right?
The thought of having seven Neifi Perez’s on a team just made Dusty Baker happy.
Me, as a Cards fan, not so much.
My friends, of course Mr. Posnanski should be secretary of the internet.
Also, my lobbyist friend is pretty hot eh?
Also, not only is Shea a good pitcher’s park but it is excellent for strikeouts, which is kind of unfair to the other team with Johan on the mound. He will miss that place after they tear it down.
Steve – Steve – is there a better catcher in baseball than Victor Martinez ?
Me, I still count four Championship Caliber guys on the Indians without Hafner. Marinez is ahead of Sizemore by a nose.
I LOVE the fact that you LOVE the Rays. The fact that BA is too blind to see the talent in Florida as a whole is just another example of the blinders that people use when looking “objectively” at baseball. This is the same reason people think Jeter is better than A-Rod.
Example 1: I have been lobbying my Fantasy Baseball league to include OPS as a stat in place of stolen bases. Stolen Bases!! C’mon!! One league member in particular doesn’t even want to attempt to comprehend the value of SLG let alone OPS. This is unbelievable to me. It’s not like I’m asking the league to start counting WARP3 or anything.
Example 2: Maybe it’s a FLA thing, but why can we not admit that Hanley Ramirez was the best SS in the majors last year? I can understand when average fans still want to tout Rollins (understandable), Reyes (even more so) or Jeter (inexcusable) as the best in the game, but when sportswriters fail to see this…wow.
The Rays are going to surprise some people this year, but not me (or you, apparently). I can definitely see them contending into late August (much the way the Royals did in 2003).
My bold prediction: The Rays will win their season series against either the Yankees or the Red Sox, and by a wide margin…and yes…the Jays suck.
It’s kind of a stretch to say that Ambiorix Burgos broke the hearts of Mets fans.
Oh, here’s this guy who throws really fast but doesn’t know how to pitch.
Turns out he can’t pitch.
Whatever.
It was more like that.
Game 7 of the 2007 ALCS. First Inning. Bases plugged. Here’s the pitch… What? Huh?
JD Drew just did what?
One hit. And instantly worth every penny of the 70 million. Has there ever been a single hit that changed the perception of a guy overnight like that? That to me, makes Drew a (CCG) even though, I agree, the phrase is more fun than official.
Oh man. A tuna melt sounds really good right now. I had a tuna melt a couple of weeks ago and they put capers in it… there is nothing that can resist the ruining power of capers. The don’t taste good in anything.
Mr. Hanley Ramirez is a complete butcher at SS, who posted a -37 in Plus/Minus for fielding in 2007. Almost as bad as Ryan Braun (-41 P/M) but at a more crucial defensive position. Ramirez is probably the best offensive shortstop, but he’s got a ways to go on his fielding.
Regarding my earlier McDonald comment: he’s one of the best defensive shortstops in the game already (the only one who’s unquestionably better than him is Tulo) and his offensive upside is greater than Eckstein’s. So I guess while “promising” is pushing it, he does look a lot better than Mr. Scrappy
Josh, Mea Culpa.
Though in fairness to me, all you Mid-Atlantic states/districts look the same to me.
=)
How do you hit Fausto Carmona? The same way the Sox did in the ALCS. Wait for him to throw a strike. The guy really only has 1 pitch. It’s a great pitch (sinking heavy fastball) and that pitch gave Kevin Brown $105 million but patient hitters can get to Carmona.
Aaron B.-
The only players unquestionably better with the leather than McDonald are Tulo AND Adam Everett. Everett being better than Troy.
Justyo, that Drew grand slam pretty much made my year, but let’s get it right. That was the first inning of Game 6, not Game 7.
Game 7 was all about Kevin Youkilis and my boy, Dustin Pedroia.
[i]I reject the notion that batting average means all that much, but since that’s your chosen metric, I’ll just point out that JD Drew hit .284 in Fenway last year (and .281 for his career), and leave it at that.[/i]
I also reject the notion that batting average means that much. I was noting that a player who cannot hit over .280, or slug over .425 while playing half his games at Fenway probably isn’t that good of a hitter. I believe his away stats of .259/.356/.406 bear me out on this one.
Forgive me Greg! I have blasphemed! (It was before coffee)
Joaldo! Great post, my friend.
A few NY backpage suggestions:
“Jo-Hitter”
“Smooth” (Santana reference as ursus has already suggested)
“This guy’s better than Rafael”
“He took it in the butt” (May have already been used)
“Steve Balboni”
“I was noting that a player who cannot hit over .280, or slug over .425 while playing half his games at Fenway probably isn’t that good of a hitter. I believe his away stats of .259/.356/.406 bear me out on this one.”
Fair enough, thanks for clarifying. However, I believe anyone with a career OPS+ of 132 before changing leagues for the first time is actually a hell of a hitter, and a one-year drop to a mark of 105 in his first year in the new league isn’t necessarily a sign that he’s lost that talent. (Though it is probably grounds to keep him off Joe’s current list of CCGs.)
Putting aside the term “championship-caliber player,” I guess I’ve been having a similar thought, which is that the biggest factor in winning it all may just be depth of good players.
I think Joe’s exercise would be really interesting. Go through each roster and just count up the number of guys who are better than average, and that’s it. Albert Pujols counts as +1 and Chone Figgins counts as +1. And see if the team totals are predictive of anything.
I thnk the exercise would be particularly interesting for a team like the Mets. They’ve gone out and added the best pitcher in baseball – and they have four legit superstars, in my view – but the Phillies and Cubs and Rockies may have more good players top to bottom. Who would you rather be?
From ESPN.com:
“Mets reliever Ambiorix Burgos had more than $270,000 in jewelry stolen from his hotel room earlier this week, but has recovered most of it — albeit by bizarre circimstances.
Burgos, who had a black leather jewelry bag in his hotel room, noticed Tuesday that it was missing and reported it missing to Port St. Lucie, Fla. police, according to The New York Times.
Hours later, an unidentified man returned the bag to the front desk, saying he had found it outside, then ran away. Most of the jewelry was still in the bag, but about $30,000 worth of bracelets, chains and watches were missing, according to the report.
Burgos said that in the future, he will store his valuables in a safe, The Times reported.”
Guess it’s just not his day all-around…at least he can take solice in the fact that he’s still the greatest pitcher ever named Ambiorix.
I’m crushed. The best sportswriter in America, a guy who I’ve come to rely on the fact that he DOESN’T rely on baseball cliches, comes out with “championship-caliber player” in his latest blog entry.
Next thing you know he’ll be measuring for “professional hitters” (usually slow, aging, white first basemen that are nice to the media, like Sean Casey) and “the grittiness factor” (usually platoon players, or those that should be platoon players, who don’t have any noticeable above average skill and whose athletic ability is just limited enough to look like they’re always trying extra hard).
Aaron B, you have helped me make my point.
My point wasn’t to say that Hanley Ramirez was the best SS last year (though I think he was…and so does VORP), but rather to say that the majority of the media would not recognize this for the same reason they will never consider the Rays a viable contender: not because of the lack of talent, but because of reputation.
Furthermore, you made your point by referenceing Plus/Minus for fielding, which is what 99.9% of sportswriters or fans would never even consider in their arguments. Much like when analyzing The AL East, most people would see the names on the Jays roster and probably assume (like the uninformed, unwashed masses that they are) that they would finish better than The Rays.
Bravo Aaron B, but I’ll still take Hanley’s bat over Tulo’s glove.
The Jays team is dependent on pitching and defence. On days when Rolen, MacDonald, Hill, and Overbay take the field, that may be the best groundball defence in all of baseball. Eckstein would be a step down but Mac is coming off a career high with the glove while Eckstein had a career low. He’ll provide a lot more with the bat than Mac and might rebound in the field.
You add quality flyball chasers and strong arms like Johnson, Wells, and Rios in the outfield and this team is going to be good at catching the ball. It is perhaps the single biggest seperator between the Jays and Rays, the latter of whom have never been great defensively.
The Jays rotation starts with three big righthanders in Halladay, Burnett, and McGowan, all of whom have serious stuff, McGowan’s peripheral stats putting him on par with Roy Oswalt. Shaun Marcum put in tremendous work as a 4th starter until injuries and fatigue started derailing him. And Janssen or Litsch could do a productive Carlos Silva impression out of the 5th spot. The Jays have depth in the rotation while the Rays have two good pitchers and question marks thereafter. Price is a good prospect but not a major league pitcher yet.
Then you look at the bullpen. Ryan is looking healthy so far but Accardo gets completely overlooked? This guy was one of the better closers in baseball last year, features mid-90s stuff and a quality splitter. Ryan plus Accardo is dominant late inning relief. Then you mix in good depth like Janssen from the right (if he doesn’t start) and Downs from the left side and you have a great pen.
The offence is a big question mark but you have to appreciate the amount of injuries and down years this team suffered last year (when they still won 83 games). Overbay is one year removed from three straight .850+ ops years.
The Rays are going to be a fun team to FOLLOW because of the tremendous young talent they sport. But their pitching and defensive depth is nowhere near on par with the Jays’. Their offence has a CHANCE to compete with the Jays offence but not if most of the Jays’ players return to career norms. The Rays need two of their last three starters to break through to have a realistic shot at a playoff run.
I’m sorry, I HAVE to ask because just last night I got into a huge discussion with my friend on whether or not its normal (and delicious) to dip tuna melts in ketchup. I’m in the ketchup camp and he’s a non-believer. I think you’re the deciding vote on this one, Joe.
p.s. Coming from a Mariners fan, Guillen might surprise you… in a good way.
No way McDonald is better offensively than Eckstein. McDonald has no offensive skills whatsoever.
Also, Adam Everett might have something to say about best defensive shortstop in baseball.
Ramirez had -22 fielding runs and 42 batting runs.
Tulowitzki had 28 fielding runs and 6 batting runs.
By the way, Jesse Barfield now has his own Blog
http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/barfield/
Hmm… do you think this will look like a good trade by the end of the year?
Justin Huber
for
Jose Guillen + $36 million
I hated the Meche signing, absolutely despised it. But it didn’t take long for me to come around, opening day to be exact. And now I sponsor his b-r page.
Although I agree with Thomas (#23) about Sonnanstine who is rapidly becoming my favorite player on the Rays, I think it is a bit misleading to state that he won 5 of his last 7. He actually got a no-decision and loss in his last 2 games, and in the nine games within which he got those 5 wins, he gave up 7, 5, 5, & 4 runs in the other four, never going more than 5.1 innings in any.
I think that will be typical of his career in that I expect him to keep his team in most games but have starts when he gets bombed. My hope-and optimism-is that those games will be fewer as he gains experience. Rather than about 50-50 which was essentially his performance at the end of 2007, I think he will only get hit hard in perhaps 1/3 of his starts and thus be a very solid #4 starter.
If any of you Rays supporters want to put your money or some other kind of wager where your mouth is, I’ll happily wager on the Jays to finish ahead of them.
The Blue Jays have the talent this season to overtake NYY & BOS. With a rotation led by Pat Hentgen Dave Stieb, a bullpen anchored by Duane Ward, as well as young hitter Ed Sprague.
I expected big things from Jonny Gomes, but he never panned out. Of course, he hasn’t even had 400 AB a season. It’s just the drop from 2005 is remarkable. He went from .282/.372/.534 139 OPS+ & 21 HR in ‘05 to .244/.322/.460 105 OPS+ & 17 HR in ‘07 (and that’s an improvement over ‘06). He’s had some nagging injuries and such, but it seems like a waste.
I’m not at all happy about the coming uniform changes in Tampa/St.Pete. The D-Rays uniform of the last few seasons is one of my favorite ever. The shade of green was beautiful. Now they’re going to be just another team in dark blue and white. Yippee! I’m sure the Padres, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Cubs, Indians, Mets, Royals, Yankees, Blue Jays, Brewers and whoever else will be happy to welcome you to the club.
I love watching Fausto Carmona pitch. Whenever I watch him pitch I count the “faustos”. See, Carmona throws a wicked sinking, inside fastball to righthanders. I assume it looks like a strike and maybe a ball you can get around on and pull, because people swing at it. The thing is, if you’re a righthander, you can’t hit it. If you’re lucky, you miss it. If you’re unlucky, you hit it and drive it down into your shins/ankles/feet and spend the next 30 seconds or so wincing, hopping, limping and walking it off. That’s a fausto.
Wait, is Baseball Weekly still around? I thought they became Sports Weekly 5 years ago or so. I dropped my subscription when that happened because all they did was focus on football and NASCAR and put a few pages on baseball in the back. Sad.
Ah Bob, I see you’re right. Somehow I missed those last 2 starts (b-r split them off below that second line of the stat headlines, and I was too inept to look at dates). I was working off the memory of seeing Sonnanstine pitch a solid game to beat the Sox while looking really good, then throwing a couple good innings in his next 2 starts against them before getting shelled, as you mentioned.
This Jays bashing is silly. Two words why the Jays will compete for a playoff spot in September and the Rays will just falt out suck. Pitching. Defense.
To Chris: you clearly know about plus minus… yet seem not to have looked at how the Jays score on that system. They’re the best in baseball (w/McDonald at SS and Johnson in LF – mark my words JMac will play a lot of SS if Eckstein does get back his defense this year – it was above average prior to last year).
The Rays are a really flawed team. Garza and Longoria aren’t going to really improve that, especially subtracting out Young (and Dukes who’ll probably be the best hitter the Rays system produces if he gets his head straight, big if).
To see the Rays as better than the Jays is to be blinded by high ceiling prospect type gibberish. The team still has no bullpen. The team still has not good defense.
The Jays offense is less than inspiring, but with that pen and a staff that’ll just get better this year (Purcey will probably end up on the Jays by July and be a lights out power lefthander).
The Jays are easily the 4th or 5th best team in the AL. The Rays? The 4th or 5th worst.
Oh, just discovered the blog via google reader. Great by the way.
There’s no doubt in my mind that the Orioles finish in last place.
Hopefully McPhail won’t give Trembley too many veterans to play over young guys and all the young guys will actually ignore Terry Crowley and we get some progress towards, I dunno, 2011 or something.
The Rays are nowhere NEAR the worst team in baseball. Put them in the Pathetic Leagu… excuse me, National League East, and they go to the playoffs. Not only that, but they give the Mets and Phillies a run for their money.
But they have to play the Yankees and Red Sox 38 times, and the Blue Jays 19 times, and the Tigers/Indians/Angels around 15 times, and hmmm, I wonder why their record isn’t so good.
Switch the Rays with the Pirates or Astros, and I’ll predict the following :
1) The Rays win 90 games.
2) The Pirates/Astros lose 130.
I wonder why everyone is harping on JD Drew as “not a championship caliber guy” but are apparently all okay with Jason Varitek? His good years are long behind him as well.
“The 2006 Cards won a championship with a decidedly non-championship-caliber shortstop . . . who even won the series MVP. From what I can tell, Pujols was the only “championship caliber†player in that lineup.”
Well, Scott Rolen did put up a .887 OPS, 126 OPS+ that year, despite being injured for half a season. I also think that Chris Carpenter’s 144 ERA+ and 1.069 WHIP would tend to qualify him. I agree that they were nowhere near the best team, but it wasn’t JUST Pujols playing.
“The 2005 White Sox won with three guys with an OPS+ > 100 — and one was Tad Iguchi.”
You might want to mention the Team 3.61 ERA if you’re trying to figure out why the White Sox won the world series that year. It wasn’t because of Ozzieball, or Smart-ball, or Scotty Podsednik ball.
It was because they had four starters with an ERA+ of 144, 116, 125, 128. They also had six relievers with an ERA+ of 220, 232, 224, 119, 120 and 164. That MIGHT have had something to do with their world series win. Maybe even more than their rather decrepit offense.
Yet everyone and their dogs in the BBWAA ofcourse believe that the reason the White Sox stunk the next year was because they didn’t bunt enough.
“My bold prediction: The Rays will win their season series against either the Yankees or the Red Sox, and by a wide margin”
Is that really such a bold prediction? Weren’t they like 11-8 against the Yankees in 2006? I think everyone wrote the Yankees off at one point when they lost another series to the Rays 3-1 and were at that point like 5-11 against them or something. Then the Yankees swept their last series against them which kept them in the race with Boston.
I’m pretty sure that the Rays have already won their season series against the Yankees before. I’ve tried to look it up, but can’t find it, and can’t be bothered to go through individual daily results for a whole year.
The season the Rays went 11-8 against the Yankees was 2005. Baseball-Reference.com has stats like that on their team pages.
“The Rays are nowhere NEAR the worst team in baseball. Put them in the Pathetic Leagu… excuse me, National League East, and they go to the playoffs. Not only that, but they give the Mets and Phillies a run for their money.
But they have to play the Yankees and Red Sox 38 times, and the Blue Jays 19 times, and the Tigers/Indians/Angels around 15 times, and hmmm, I wonder why their record isn’t so good.
Switch the Rays with the Pirates or Astros, and I’ll predict the following :
1) The Rays win 90 games.
2) The Pirates/Astros lose 130.”
First of all that is the most uninformed comment in this whole comment section. Losing 130 games would require a record of losing that has only been achieved once since 1900 (the 1916 Philadelphia A’s).
No team is that bad.
Also if they switched to the NL East they would have to play the Braves, Mets and Phillies 16 times. None of those teams are very easy. Also, the AL West is as competitive a division as you will find.
There is league disparity but it’s not NBA bad yet.
That was meant to say NL West.
I don’t think the Rays are that flawed a club. They finished 8th in the AL last year in runs scored, but their pitching staff got absolutely shelled. Their moves this off-season, coupled with the development of their young pitchers, should help them rectify that problem to a certain extent.
Both their bullpen and defence were historically awful last year. Bartlett is a major upgrade over Josh Wilson and Brendan Harris. Getting Upton out of the infield helps on two fronts (he was a butcher at second and appears to be excellent in center). They have added Percival, Miller and a few other fungible arms to the pen.
Most importantly, I think a number of their starters are ready to take a big step forward. Sonnanstine, Howell, Jackson and Garza could all potentially take a big step forward in a similar way to James Shields this year. The Rays aren’t likely to be better than Toronto, but I think they will flirt with 80 wins.
First off, I must admit I am a Redsox fan from Central Connecticut who grew up with obnoxious Yankee fans. (No Mets fans, being a Mets fan in Central CT is like being a fan of RC soda). With that said I think everyone needs to take a step back on Johan Santana this year. I would like to point out that recent history is against big name starters coming to NY, at least in the first season. I excluded anyone who started their career in NY (Lieter, Cone) and obvious poor choice signings (Weaver, Pavano, Wright) and came up with 7 guys since 98. Here they are with ERA the year before and then the first year in NY.
Clemens 2.65 -4.60
Johnson 2.60-3.79
K Brown 2.39-4.09
Vazquez 3.24-4.91
Glavine 2.96-4.52
Pedro 3.90-2.82
Hampton 2.90-3.14
Sure enough the one person who bucks my trend completely is Pedro, God love him. But for everyone who thinks Santana is going to take his game to another level, you might need to wait a year. I don’t know what the media attention is like in Minnesota, but I know it’s brutal in NY.
Pedro is also the only one on that list that went from the AL to the NL. And thats why people are predicting Santana to dominate. The Yankees are irrelevant in this conversation.
Johan Santana is much too short to dominate NL elite mashers such as Eddie Taubensee and Mark Whiten.
Jo-hanna from Heaven
Clemens, Johnson, Brown and Glavine were all 35+ when they came to New York (Johnson 41), so I don’t think you can really draw any conclusions there. On average pretty much any group of player with an average age of 38 is going to decline.
Hampton went from a 2.90 ERA to a 3.12, which is technically, I guess, a decline, but not an especially worrrisome one.
Which leaves us with Javier Vasquez which isn’t much on which to hang a theory.
Also Vazquez went from NL to AL which blows the theory up.
Some things random thoughts:
1.) Ron, what’s wrong with Royal Crown cola? Sure I haven’t had it in maybe 20 years, but I don’t remember it being that bad.
2.) As subjective as “CCG” is, I’m in the “J.D. Drew is not one” camp. And while as wishy-washy as it is, I would read it if Joe broke down each team. Could be fun and generate a discussion or eight.
3.) I need to remind myself to read this blog more often.
nice call on the rays