I would love, love, love to be able to do the following for every team in baseball. Unfortunately, even though the audience of this blog has grown exponentially over the last three months — this ridiculous little blog has now had more than a half million hits — and my pay for it has grown exponentially as well, that pay grand total still equals $0.00. This is not quite enough to take on a 30-team project. In fact, it has very much made me question, yet again, what in the hell I’m doing here.
But it’s just that way — some people are addicted to drugs, some to alcohol, some to cigarettes, some to fame, some to The Wire … it just so happens I’m addicted to writing about sports and whatever stupid thing pops into my brain.* It’s a sad thing, and you people are enablers. Shame on you. I have no idea how you sleep at night (especially if you have not bought one of these).
*So, in the Billy Joel song “My Life,” — which I despise because as you know I despise all Billy Joel songs, but a song I have also memorized because if you’re my age, Billy Joel is inescapable — there’s a little verse that begins, “They will you tell you, you can’t can’t sleep alone in a strange place.” Other than the awkward “you you” construction in the middle, I’ve always thought this was the best verse Billy Joel has ever written.
“They will tell you you can’t sleep alone in a strange place. Then they’ll tell you, you can’t sleep with somebody else. (Again that you-you thing). Ah but sooner or later you sleep in your own space.”
And then, what to me was the delivery line, the best line Billy Joel had ever written:
“Either way, it’s OK, you wake up with the smell.”
I just thought that was way above Billy’s general shlock. That to me had a slightly gritty edge that you generally are not going to find in a lyricist who had people wearing younger men’s clothes. Either way, it’s OK, you wake up with the smell. I always gave Billy credit for that one. That’s a solid knock. That song would come on the radio, and I wouldn’t turn it off because of that line (and because it was the opening theme song for “Bosom Buddies”).
And then, not too long ago, I discovered something … he’s not saying “Either way, it’s OK, you wake up with the smell,” which, as mentioned, is tangible, unaffected, tough. No. Hell no. He’s singing, “Either way, it’s OK, you wake up with YOURSELF.” Get that? You wake up with YOURSELF. That plain sucks, OK? That’s like some Dr. Phil thing. I mean, look, Billy Joel has had a whole helluva lot more success in his life than I have or ever will have, and Scenes From An Italian Restaurant will be remembered long after my pathetic little words are dust and cache (he was also smart enough to actually get PAID for his scribblings). But come on. Wake up with yourself. Man. Makes me sick. I will say, though, I listened to the song again recently, and it still sounds like he’s saying “You wake up with the smell.” Maybe he is, and he just wrote the other lyric down to sate and placate his Dr. Phillish fans. Maybe deep down it is still rock and roll to him.
Anyway, here’s what I did. I took two separate projections for the 2008 Kansas City Royals players — ZIPS and the projections from the 2008 Bill James Handbook — and tried to use them to write one of those intensive Bill Mazeroski Baseball type previews. The Royals went 69-93 last season and actually played five games under the pythag, which means … hell, I don’t know, something. They have a new manager, a slightly renovated stadium (with more renovations after this year), a new $11 million cleanup hitter, some bullpen help and several rookies becoming sophomores — what does it all mean?
Lineup*
*I’m guessing a little bit at the lineup … not sure where Royals new manager Trey Hillman will line them up. I’m hoping he tries a couple of things — I have a couple of odd suggestions for him ignore in here. But hell, we all know lineup order is about two percent more important than squat, so we’ll just go with more or less what they did last year.
CF, David DeJesus
Zips: .287/.355/.431, 11, 55, 81 runs.
BJ: .281/.361/.407, 9, 62, 95 runs.
Comment: The projections are about the same, and they’re fairly consistent with what DeJesus has done in his career. He’s had an interesting career — at least to me. The Royals really viewed him as a fourth outfielder for a long time. Then they started viewing him as a potential minor star* — maybe a Jose Vidro type batter, maybe Corey Koskie, someone like that. Then the new regime came in, and I don’t think they knew what to think.
*When I was young — we’re talking 20-25 years ago — I used to go to baseball card shows, and I loved it how the non-rookie cards were divided up into three categories: Stars, minor stars and commons. For baseball card scavengers like me and my friend Robert — we were always looking for Bert Blyleven rookie cards among other things — you could tell quite a lot about the dealer by where he put his players. Ben Oglvie to me was the canary in the card box. Oglvie was a very fine hitter who had one exceptional season, 1980, when he hit .304/.362/.563 with 41 homers, 118 RBIs and led the American League with 19 intentional walks. If a dealer left Oglvie in his commons box (as most did), you could guess that he wasn’t really paying close attention and you might be able to find a bargain or two in his commons. If a dealer had Oglvie in the minor stars box (where he belonged) then he has spent time carefully dividing his cards and you probably weren’t going to find any bargains. And if the dealer put Oglvie in the stars (as a few did) then you knew the guy was trying to rip you off (or he was from Milwaukee).
David’s an odd player, a centerfielder who holds his own out there even thought really can’t run. He’s a terrific baserunner but all efforts to turn him into a base stealer have been more or less futile (As one smart aleck said: “I love David to death but the only way to make him a base stealer is to shorten the distance between the bases”). He’s a solid hitter who looked like he would get on base a lot — I think people were thinking .380 or .390 OBP — but that really hasn’t happened yet. His slugging percentage also dropped 70 points last year as he played his first 150-game season.
I think the Royals grandiose attempts to sign Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones tell you that they would probably like to upgrade here (and either move DeJesus to a corner or get something for him in a deal). I like David a lot as a player, and I really have for quite some time. He happens to play in a division with Grady Sizemore and Curtis Granderson, which is a tough comparison for anyone. But I think you can win with a guy who does everything well enough. Now should he be leading off? I don’t think so. I actually have a different and somewhat loony thought on that one.
2B: Mark Grudzielanek
Zips: .292/.332/.402, 5, 49, 55 runs.
BJ: .285/.329/.387, 6, 41, 60 runs.
Comment: Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was. The projections for Grud are more or less identical, and if he stays reasonably healthy you can flat count on those numbers — nothing more, nothing less. Solid defender, scrappy opposite field hitter, tough guy who bounces back from injuries. It’s probably his last year as second baseman of the Royals (figuring that Alberto Callaspo takes over next year). His only glaring weakness as a second baseman is his inability to take a walk … but as someone pointed out, if he could take a walk, the Royals would not be able to afford him. I’d love to see him moved down in the lineup to bulk up that lower third — not sure how he’d respond to that though.
LF: Mark Teahen
Zips: .279/.351/.431, 13, 72, 87 runs.
BJ: .290/.363/.450, 11, 67, 75 runs.
Comment: Here’s my crazy idea — I might lead off Mark Teahen. There are quite a few reasons for this, the first being that for three years now I’ve watched the Royals trying to reinvent this guy. They keep asking him to hit with more power, hit with more power, hit with more power — and he had a little stretch there in 2006 where he did hit with more power, which just encouraged them more. They put him in the No. 3 spot for most of last year, and he spent most of the year trying (and struggling) to prove he was a legit No 3 hitter.
Thing is, my gut tells me Mark Teahen is not that kind of player. He’s definitely an uncanny base runner — one of the best I’ve seen. He runs like George Brett ran, stretching singles into doubles, going first to third, stealing bases at a pretty high rate of success. I don’t think he’s especially FAST — probably slightly above average — but as we all know, speed in baseball is like height for a quarterback. It might help, but in the end it’s really not the determining factor for success. Anyway, Teahen can really move when he gets going, and he’s got those instincts. He also has shown, at times, an ability to get on base (going back to the minors). He strikes out a ton, and always has, but I do wonder if could cut those down if the club was no longer hammering on him to hit the ball out of the park. I don’t know.
Anyway, I think in baseball, people get an image of a player in their mind and they keep trying to force that player into the image. If I had to rank Mark Teahen’s strengths as an offensive player I would say they are:
1. His base-running skills.
2. His ability to go the opposite way with pitches.
3. His ability to hit for average and get on base.
4. His adjustability.
5. His power potential.
The Royals, it seems to me, have that list turned inside out. Anyway, you would hope the Royals aren’t reading this right now, and even if they are I don’t expect them to say, “Hey, we never thought of that. Let’s DO it!” I suspect the Bill James projection will be pretty close as it will be another year of the Royals trying to make Mark Teahen something he is not.
RF: Jose Guillen
Zips: .270/.333/.438, 19, 79, 73 runs.
BJ: .274/.333/.455, 23, 88, 77 runs.
Comment: The projections are about the same — and they would be my projections for Guillen too. Something like .270-.275 average, somewhere in the 20 homer range, something like 85 RBIs. I couldn’t tell you if the Royals would see this sort of year as:
1) A huge disappointment.
2) A semi-disappointment.
3) About what they expected.
4) Better than they hoped.
My guess is No. 2. I think the Royals would like to see 25-plus homers, 95-plus RBIs and 0.0 thrown helmets. We’ll see. I’m also curious to see how many at-bats Emil Brown will get in Oakland.
DH: Billy Butler
Zips: .288/.360/.471, 18, 80, 67 runs
BJ: .297/.365/.473, 17, 90, 73 runs
Comment: By both projections, Butler’s the best hitter on the club, and I think that’s probably right. The kid can flat rake. As he matures, he could become a Miggy Cabrera type hitter, I think — he really could (I know, you just clipped out that last sentence out and plan to sent it to me in two years with a “This is how insane you are,” type note. Fine. You have to be bold on the blogs, people. I already predicted that Todd Helton would hit .400 didn’t I? I’ve already written that Billy Joel’s song would have been better if it was “Either way it’s OK you wake up with the smell.” By the standards on this blog, the Miggy Cabrera comparison is like a 3.2 on the outrageous scale).
The thing about Butler is that he will be 21 years old on Opening Day, he’s a .336 hitter in the minors (.336/.416/.561 despite being the youngest guy at pretty much every level), and when he came up last year he was absolutely matching up with the best pitchers in the game (guy hit .385 off of Sabathia, went three-for-five against Kenny Rogers and four for eight with a homer against Justin Verlander — I mean that’s pretty much the gamut). He’s the one guy who could, I think, outperform even those fairly lofty expectations if the pressures and adjustments to life as a DH/occasional first basemen don’t mess him up). Butler does not seem the type to let pressure or adjustments affect him.
3B: Alex Gordon
Zips: .264/.339/.453, 21, 77, 71 runs.
BJ: .277/.349/.471, 20, 76, 80 runs.
Comment: There’s a pretty wide gap between those the two projections. Bill James’ people clearly see Alex taking that next step up — decent average, get on base some, hit with some power. Zips, at least the way I view it, has him settling into a different pattern, as a fairly low average guy who will run into a few home runs. Neither really sees him as the next George Brett (who in his 24th year hit .312/.373/.532 with 32 doubles, 13 triples, 22 homers, 14 steals and 300 total bases) which is what Kansas City fans really would like to see happen.
I don’t know what to think about Alex right now. I don’t think he has any sort of serious bust potential — he’s going to be a very solid Major Leaguer at worst. But the star thing? It’s a big year for him. He has this little hitch in his swing, he strikes out a lot, his plate discipline more or less went to hell last year after he got off to the astonishingly bad start. On the other hand, he’s always hit, I like his baseball personality, I think he has absolutely no doubt in his ability (which I think is helpful), and I’m very award that in the last 100 games or so, after that awful start, he did hit .285/.330/.478 — which is awfully good for a rookie third baseman. I lean right now toward the Bill James projection … I think he takes a step forward in 2008, and stardom might still be in his future. But hey, I’m an optimistic guy.
1B: Ross Gload/Ryan Shealy
Gload Zips: .292/.332/.447, 7, 38, 34.
Shealy Zips: .268/.336/.439, 13, 49, 48
Gload BJ: .307/.346/.465, 9, 49, 40
Shealy BJ: .260/.340/.447, 11, 45, 35
Comment: You know, in both case, the Zips have the Royals getting 20 homers about 90 to 95 RBIs out of their first base slot. The Royals take that RIGHT NOW. Or at least I would. Last year Royals got 12 homers, 80 RBIs, and that was with some Alex Gordon, some Billy Butler, some Mark Teahen at first base.
I like Ross Gload. Everybody likes Gload. What’s not to like? Solid as they come, plays some good defense at first, gives you the professional at-bat, hits you the sac fly when you need it, doesn’t seem to complain much (or at all). The problem with Ross Gload and players of his charms is that managers, inevitably, fall in love, overexpose, and at the end of the day find they have given 318 at-bats to a first baseman with a .318 on-base percentage and seven home runs. I’m one of those people who believe that managers’ strategic moves are largely overrated. On the other hand, there is what I am now coining as the Ross Gload Rule.
– Use Ross Gload correctly, he will help your team win games.
– Use Ross Gload incorrectly, he will get you fired.
Buddy Bell certainly had his own charms as manager, but sticking with young players was not one of them. Buddy seemed to give up on Ryan Shealy on about, I don’t know, Day 3 of spring training last year. Shealy has always been one of the players who divides opinions. On the one hand, the guy killed the ball in the minors — .315/.394/.584 in six seasons. Some of that was light air, perhaps, but the guy clearly had something. He came to Kansas City in 2006 and for 50 games or so showed some pretty good things — .280/.331/.451 in about 200 at-bats and coaches raved about his “approach.”
On the other hand, scouts generally seem to think Shealy has a slow bat. Their feeling was that he would not have the bat speed to catch up with the high fastball or adjust to the down and away breaker.*
*My feeling as a pretend scout has always been on this — nobody except Vlady, Pujols, Manny and that ilk can hit the high fastball and adjust to the down and away breaker. The key for the humans is laying off those pitches, and Shealy showed reasonable restraint, at least that first year. I feel the same way when I hear people say, “Oh, he will become a good pitcher when he harnesses that mid-90s fastball and can throw his breaking ball consistently for strikes and command his split-fingered baseball.” Please. Who can do that? Christy Mathewson? Fastball command and something to disrupt timing wins you 12-15 in the big leagues and gets you $10 million per year.
Anyway, Buddy appeared to agree with the scouts and, from what I can gather, he more or less lost confidence in Shealy very, very early last year. Now, to be fair, Shealy got off to a TERRIBLE start. Mid-May the guy was hitting .148. Still, you hate to see a manager give up on a young player in May, especially a young player that seemed pretty important to the Royals future (they did trade two relatively young pitchers — Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista — to get him). Anyway, Shealy sort of plodded along, then he got hurt and did not play a game after June 25. So there’s really no way at all to judge what the Royals might get out of him this year.
I’ll say this though: I think the Royals hired the perfect manager for a guy like Shealy. Trey Hillman seems the type to me who leans on young players, who sees them as challenges, who will get in their faces, sure, but also will stick with them through bad times. Teams like the Royals can obviously use some breaks — a surprise season from Ryan Shealy would be a nice one.
C: John Buck
Zips: .232/.301/.394, 15, 53, 44 runs.
BJ: .242/.312/.428, 19, 60, 51 runs.
Comment: A lot of people, yours truly included, could not fathom why Buddy Bell gave 169 at-bats to veteran catcher Jason LaRue even though the guy hit .148 for the season. LaRue in 2007 was as bad a semi-regular hitter as I’ve seen (and he was apparently just about as bad in 2006). Buddy liked his defense. And as mentioned, Buddy always felt safest of all when surrounded by veteran baseball players.
Anyway, you have to be fair. After May 24, John Buck hit .186. There are those who think it is because John was baffled and discouraged by his role, others who think the league adjusted to his new hitting style (he was hitting .310 on May 23), still others who think the guy can’t hit. The point is that as bad as Jason LaRue may have been, Buddy wasn’t exactly benching Johnny Bench.
John is a personal favorite, and I would very much like for him to emerge … and by emerge, I think the Bill James numbers are reasonable. If he could whack 20 homers or so, drive in 60 or so, hit .240-.250, I think that’s a guy you might win with. I think he’s probably average defensively, but he throws OK, he blocks the plate, he seems like he can earn pitchers’ respect. Pair that up with a guy like Miguel Olivo, and the Royals could get 25-30 homer pop out of the catcher’s spot (and a very low on-base percentage, but hey, Joe Mauer ain’t available). I think you take that. What would be bad would be to see John go into an extended funk because I think the Royals are not sold on him yet. A bad year would probably be his last as a starter in the big leagues.
SS: Tony Pena
Zips: .270/.294/.354, 3, 36, 53 runs.
BJ: .268/.291/.357, 3, 43, 57 runs.
Comment: Tony Pena is a very smart player. He gets that from his old man. He knows that if he fields his position well — he’s capable of winning a Gold Glove, I think — and hits .250 to .270, there will be a job for him. It really won’t matter if he never walks or strikes out a bit too much or ever hits for any sort of power or continues to put up the 66 OPS+ seasons that he had last year. Hit .268, field your position, you will have a job. Moneyball and the stats revolution haven’t changed the game that much.
And I’ll say the romantic in me would like to believe that a brilliant defensive shortstop who doesn’t hit is a good and cheap way to help your club win. It always seemed to work for me in Strat-o-Matic.* Having a 1e12 at shortstop seemed like a lifesaver. The guy always seemed to turn the double play. The guy always seemed to get to the ball in the hole. I never was the type to do intensive Strat-o-Matic stats but from afar it seemed like a great defensive shortstop saved my team about 483,996 runs per year. I know that’s how it must feel to big league managers too. I also realize that it’s probably just perception and that for every great defensive play my shortstop made, there were probably two weak grounders he hit to second base with runners in scoring position.
*I realize that it’s probably not too wise in the same post to reveal my former baseball card geekdom AND my genuine love for Strat-o-Matic, but I’m assuming you already guessed that I wasn’t Homecoming King. The thing about playing Strat-o-Matic is how much you learn about the game — or, more to the point, how much differently you SEE the game as a manager/coach rather than just a fan. This is true in baseball, but it’s ESPECIALLY TRUE in football. My friend Chardon Jimmy and I used to play titanic Strat-O football games that had the intensity of the Fischer-Spassky match. Believe me, if I could have videotaped his coaching signals, I would have. I cannot even imagine how I would have dealt with the media after one of those losses. Not well. I’d have have spewed that “Playoffs?” rant, I’m sure.
Two games in our blood rivalry stick out, and you are certainly more than welcome to skip this paragraph because nothing is more boring than listening to someone else’s Strat-o-Matic football coaching story. There is a point, though. One game, he won when Dan Fouts twice (maybe three times) hit passes into double coverage. The second game, I pulled a shocking upset when I cleverly (if I do say so myself) built a surprise offense around Bengals quarterback Donald Hollas, and Jimbo did not adjust until it was too late. The first game taught me the lesson that sometimes you can make the right coaching movies, and the other team will still beat you, and that sucks. The second game taught me that I am a genius.
Fourth outfielder
Joey Gathright
Zips: .270/.344/.328, 1, 38, 72, 31 SBs, 15 CS
BJ: .285/.365/.348, 1 40, 72, 34 SB, 14 CS
Comment: Again, the two projections are pretty different. By Zips, Gathright is at best a fourth outfielder — a fast .344 OBP outfielder with absolutely zero power, a so-so stolen base percentage and only moderate defensive talents isn’t helping you at all. But by the Bill James’ projection, you have something closer to value — a .365 OBP, a little bit better stolen base percentage. I’m thinking you might lead off a guy like that, especially if he could punch up that OBP into the .370s.
I really can’t tell you which projection will be accurate. Last year, Gathright started in the minor leagues, worked on plate discipline, then came up and in 228 ABs slapped and slashed his way to a .371 OBP and looked pretty good*. He might have walked a little more, struck out a little less — and he was an atrocious base stealer (9 stolen bases, 8 caught stealing). But he did show at least a few signs of having Otis-Nixon-like-value. That would be great name for a band. The Counting Crows are coming up but first … the Otis Nixon Like Values!
*I have a reader who is the world’s biggest Joey Gathright fan. He thinks Gathright’s a poor man’s Ichiro, and has some sort of nickname that would indicate that (Ichiroey, maybe). He is obviously a bit out there, but I like fans who go overboard because that’s how I was with those 1970s Cleveland Indians. I’m pretty sure I made some comparison between Rick Waits and Steve Carlton that was supposed to be flattering to both men.
Alberto Callaspo
Zips: .270/.333/.407, 10, 52, 60, 16 SBs,
BJ: .284/.339/.403, 3, 31, 27, in limited at-bats.
Comment: I have not seen Callaspo play yet, and the only thing I know for certain about him as a baseball player is that he almost never strikes out. In more than 2,600 minor league at-bats, the guy has struck out 141 times. That’s plain absurd. From what I hear he can’t really run, and he probably won’t hit with much more than gap power, and he’s probably average with the glove. So the guy needs to flat stroke to play in the big leagues. The Royals think he will hit — I have heard the Placido Polanco comparison — and he’s the second baseman of the future after this year.
I’m guessing with the addition of Callaspo, the Royals may not have room on the roster for Esteban German, who was affectionately known for a while as “Lil’ Papi,” and was a personal favorite. German could play almost every position, none of them well, and two years ago he put up a .326/.422/.459 in 279 at-bats. Some of that magic wore off last year — the average dropped 60 points, the on-base percentage 70 points — and the feeling seems to be that he wears down over a season. The problem with trying to keep German on the roster this year is that he can’t play shortstop (well, he CAN play shortstop, but … so can I), and the Royals will need someone to give Tony Pena some time off. We’ll see where that goes.
Final thoughts: The Royals scored 706 runs last year, 13th in the American League — just ahead of the anemic White Sox. Using projections and my own bizarre calculations, it seems to me that they have a chance to score 60 to 90 more runs this year. Obviously that would be a huge jump, but I think it’s possible. And if they score that many more runs, I think that’s good for eight to 12 more games that they might win (assuming pitching stays the same).
The keys for this offense beyond the basic health issue seem to be those three young guys — Mark Teahen, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler. If all three just live up to the projections, the Royals will score more runs. If two out of three fall below expectations … it could be another long year for the Royals offense. But to an optimist like me it’s like this — if any of the three really exceeds expectations, then there’s a chance the Royals might be an effective offensive team even though it’s a good bet that they will be bottom three or four in home runs, probably bottom-bottom. I do see some hope. Always.
Soon: Pitchers.
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54 Comments, Comment or Ping
will
If I didn’t already love this blog your hatred of Billy Joel would have sold me on it.
Feb 10th, 2008
Aaron B.
Good post Joe. And here’s my prediction/projection for the Giants this season.
Pain
Least runs scored of any club since 1980.
Feb 10th, 2008
Old Man Duggan
The Giants will be awful. Is Rowand going to bat third? Fourth? Either way, awful.
As for the Royals, my hope is that they trade Grudz around the break and get prospects in return to make way for Callaspo full-time. By that point, I’d imagine that Aviles will have proven himself worthy of spelling Pena for a game or two a week.
Like the thoughts on Teahen batting lead-off (and therefore moving Butler to third). The lineup might actually look all right if DDJ was at the bottom of the order.
As for Alex, I seem to remember having read that Hillman wants him batting 6th because he likes having one last guy batting after the heart of the order to drive those runs in, and Alex was his guy.
Feb 10th, 2008
ChuckO
Joe, the last person to entertain me so well while writing about sports was the early Bill James of the Baseball Abstracts. It’s no wonder your blog readership is growing. You might want to consider putting ads on your blog so that you can make yourself some money from it.
Feb 10th, 2008
Levi Stahl
No longer having to hear Billy Joel songs wafting excruciatingly from dorm room windows is one of the many unexpectedly pleasant aspects of post-collegiate life. Yet more than a decade later, I’ll still sometimes wake up with “Uptown Girl” in my head. Evil.
Feb 10th, 2008
John Roberts
Joe.
You are being unrealistically critical of Billy Joel. You obviously do not recognize his musical genius. He has proven repeatedly that he can write shlock in any musical style. Now, that’s virtuosity. By the way, when’s the BRM book coming out?
Feb 10th, 2008
Clayton
I’m open to advertising, here. NOt everwhere.
Billy Joel wrote about 10 really cool songs in the mid-late 70s, mostly on Piano Man but also some even cooler ones on The Stranger (c’mon, Joe, you saw the Taxi where they sang Vienna, you weren’t moved?) I sure as hell was, and I more typically enjoy despising the complacency of the masses…
No, your attack on Billy J is misplaced, however ridiculous he looks in Yankees paraphranalia, he’e one of us…astray, ok, one of us
Feb 10th, 2008
Rick Denison
You know abut mondergreens, right, Joe?
“There’s a bathroom on the right”
“I’m not talkin’ ’bout Bolivia”
“Just brush my teeth before you leave me”
Et cetera.
Jon Carroll at the San Francisco Chronicle has written some funny columns about mondegreens (see: http://www.sfgate.com/columnists/carroll/mondegreens.shtml), or just Google to the Web site of your preference.
Feb 10th, 2008
Paul White
Billy Joel is the greatest songwriter ever…If you’re from Long Island. Otherwise, he sucks.
Regarding Tony Pena Jr. - In 536 PA’s last year, he created just 47 runs, which, of course, is terrible. But in roughly the same number of plate appearances in 2006, Angel Berroa created 36 runs. So, in other words, Pena created about 30% more runs while playing markedly better defense, all while making one-fifth the amount of money. And he’s three years younger. As bad as Pena was with the stick last year, he was worth about four more wins than Berroa, which probably puts Berroa’s hideous 2006 season into proper perspective more than anything else.
Feb 10th, 2008
Mike
I’d say Helton and/or Pujols were my candidates to hit over .400 next. And of course Ichiro.
You need four tools: don’t strike out very much, hit for power, hit line drives, and walk a lot. Helton used to have all four but lacks the power these days. Pujols has all four, though I don’ t think he walks or hits line drives quite enough. Ichiro obviously lacks the power and walks,
Williams was really the ideal in all four; not striking out allowed him to put the ball in play a lot. Line drives and home runs allowed those balls to go for hits as much as possible. And walks helped keep the sample size down so thst regression to the mean would be suppressed.
Unless Ichiro learns much much more patience, I think Pujols may be the only current player who really has a shot at it.
Feb 10th, 2008
Sirk
Joe,
I’m an avid Strat player as well. I agree that it is a great teaching tool.
Growing up in the 80’s, I already had a firm grasp of important concepts like OBP and WHIP, despite never having read Bill James. While everyone was still focused on the basic stats back then (Avg/HR/RBI), I was more enamored with guys like Brett Butler and Andre Thornton, who would get on base all of the time. It seemed to me that if the Tribe had more players like that, and fewer guys who walked 30 times in 600 ABs, they would have been better off.
And I remember Jack Clark’s 1987 card seemed like the greatest thing ever…not only did he slug a bunch of homers, but there were walks all over the place. It was beautiful. By the 90s, those type of players/cards would become common thanks to guys like Bagwell and Thomas, etc, and the importance would become mainstream through “Moneyball”, but as kid, I grasped the importance of that stuff on my own through playing Strat.
Plus, for a while, as a kid with plenty of time to spare, I had an almost encyclopedic knowledge of every player’s strengths and weakness….not in a “he can’t lay off the high heat” sense*, but in terms of the overall type of player they were.
(* I am referring to non-Tribe players, so I’m not counting things that become obvious when you watch a team play every day, like “With two strikes, Cory Snyder will always swing at the down-and-away breaking ball that bounces into the left-handed batter’s box.”)
Sirk
Feb 10th, 2008
Eric Stephen
Joe, I love reading your writing. I can’t say I’m a huge Billy Joel fan, but I do love “The Stanger.” Also, in 8th grade my English teacher made one person each day sing in front of the class — she was pretty sadistic. I sang two songs that year, and the first one was “We Didn’t Start The Fire” (the 2nd was “One More Minute”, my favorite Weird Al Yankovic song) because it was more memorization than singing and helped soothe the paralysis of “singing” in front of the class.
Regarding the Royals, I have an irrational love for the 1980s powder blue uniforms, so I think the Royals’ decision to bring those uniforms back for select games in 2008 will lead to an improvement of at least 5 wins!
Feb 10th, 2008
Daniel
Joe, I will continue to non-financially support this blog since I enjoy it so much, but I love Billy Joel. He’s amazing. That’s all.
Feb 10th, 2008
John
The Stranger is one of my favorite albums. Everything BJ has done since then, not so much. I agree with Clayton, the Vienna episode of Taxi was classic. Come to think of it, almost every episode of Taxi was classic. It’s a show that couldn’t happen today. The producers would have linked Alex and Elaine in the first season and the show would have turned into a sucky romantic comedy (ala Friends).
Feb 10th, 2008
Mean Dean
Wow, this is great to see all these people who understand that Billy Joel is a schlockmeister. I grew up and live in NYC, so I have had him shoved down my throat forever.
A 1e10 shortstop in Strat-O-Matic will save you about 36 runs over a full season, compared to a 4e10. (One wishes it were that easy to measure defense in real life.)
How about Justin Huber? He seemed better than Shealy to me to begin with. But they went out and got Shealy anyway. Then even after Shealy flopped, they still didn’t go back to Huber.
Feb 10th, 2008
Josh in DC
Really, Joe — did you think you were REVEALING that you collected baseball cards? I think we all safely assumed that was the case.
Feb 10th, 2008
Jeff P.
Nice idea about putting Teahen at leadoff but I doubt KC will be that creative.
I think the projections for Guillen and Butler are probably going to be close but I think Gordon is going to approach .300/25/100. Also I read where Hillman plans on batting him 7th so my question is what righthanded pitcher in his right mind would pitch to Gordon with Buck and TPJ coming up?
I’d like to see Shealy get the majority of pt at first base, if he slumps then I’d like to Huber or Butler there.
Feb 10th, 2008
Tim
If the Royals pitching staff can throw out a league average ERA, with this offense, they should be able to finish ahead of the Sox and Twins in the central. Well, Sox definitely, I don’t really know about the Twins.
Feb 10th, 2008
Minda
Joe, your assessment of Teahen is the best one I’ve read anywhere, ever. I think it was the numbered list of his strengths that really did it for me.
It seems like people jumped all over Teahen after this season, and it wasn’t entirely fair. People said things about how he had an awful, career-low year; I even heard someone say he was burnt out and/or washed up. I think what all of these people are forgetting is that he has had a very, very short career so far. The guy is YOUNG; he hasn’t had enough time to show who he really is as a player.
Is he the player from 2006, or is he closer to his 2007 performance? I seriously doubt Hillman will push him to be a “power guy” so the answer is probably that he is neither.
Joey Gathright’s inability to run bases is one of the most perplexing mysteries I’ve come across in the last few seasons of ball. I have never seen someone who can run that fast. The guy is an athlete, but he makes some of the poorest baserunning decisions. It’s shocking that his sheer speed isn’t enough to cover up a few more of those miscues, but I hope Hillman rides him for that until he figures it out. I’d love to see him become something more than a 4th-outfielder-when-there’s-room-on-the-40-man type of guy.
Someone (comment 6 I think) asked when the BRM book is coming out. I think Joe said in an earlier post that it would be March of ‘09. And if I were the betting type (I am), I’d bet that it will be AWESOME.
Feb 10th, 2008
Dustyn
Decent article, but Callaspo is probably a above average defender at second base, unlike you state in the article. I’ve also heard he’s fast, but just flat out sucks at stealing bases.
Overall though, nice work. I’d like to see Teahen hit for power myself, instead of what you want him to do. He’s got the ability, and he’s shown it before, last year he didn’t get to train his upper body, he did get to this offseason and he’s said it himself in an interview with royals.com. He said he wants to try to go back a little more to driving the ball like 2006.
Feb 10th, 2008
Craig Hooten
I was a Shealy skeptic from day 1, even though I wanted to be wrong.
Here’s the thing, he had outstanding minor league numbers at every stop. However, those numbers were an illusion. He was 2 years too old for every level he played at AND he played in hitters leagues and in hitters parks coming up. In my opinion he is a 21st century Joey Meyer (88-89 Brewers).
Feb 10th, 2008
James
It’s just like “What About Bob?” when he says there are those who love Neil Diamond and those that don’t.
Anyway, we are about the same age, but I happen to love Billy Joel. In fact, My Life is the first song I memorized all of the words to. Now, I have thousands of songs stored in my head.
Feb 11th, 2008
MonkeyHawk
I lost interest in Billy Joel after “Piano Man.”
I loved the Billy the Kid cut; a four-minute movie.
I’m looking forward to how Hillman runs this team. I suspect — or maybe just hope — he’ll get these guys to excel. I realize that the stats indicate a Manager only makes a difference in a half-a-dozen games over a season. But I also remember Casey Stengle’s line about the Manager’s job: “It’s a matter of keeping those players who hate you apart from those who aren’t sure.”
The Japanese experience, with players demanding more practice, might collide with a more laid-back attitude of American players (i.e., don’t get too high, don’t get too low).
But my gut tells me Hillman might be the kind of leader who finds out where his team wants to go and gets in front of the crowd.
Kansas City fans are shallow enough that there might be some big crowds early on, just to see the new scoreboard. But if the team wins early, and competes relatively deep into the season, this might be a fun season.
Feb 11th, 2008
D.B. Cooper
Boy, I had blocked that LaRue ‘06 out of my mind. As a Reds fan, I’d always liked Larue - he played hard, played a lot, and played pretty darn well behind the plate for a guy who started out as a 3b.
But man, that season was tough to watch. Just brutal. Then he somehow went and got worse.
Feb 11th, 2008
Ed
joe, i recommend you read the fourth chapter of chuck klosterman’s sex drugs and cocoa puffs.
Feb 11th, 2008
Ed
oh, and in case that doesn’t mean much for you it’s a chapter devoted to billy joel.
Feb 11th, 2008
Pete Ridges
Has anyone ever heard the phrase “You can’t sleep alone in a strange place”, outside of the self-serving Billy Joel song? Me neither. I mean, Joe, you’ve been in a lot of hotels, does the receptionist ever say “I’m sorry, sir, you can’t come in, because you’re new to this town, and You Can’t Sleep Alone In A Strange Place”. Sounds to me as though someone had criticised Billy Joel for something like, I don’t know, sleeping with a woman not his wife, not that a singer would ever do that, so he made this up.
The whole verse is like politicians saying “some people say I’m soft on crime, but some say I’m too tough. So that proves I’m just right.”
Feb 11th, 2008
Byron
Joe, you must be a hell of a writer, because after I was done your Royals preview I was thinking that they’re going to compete for (and probably win) the wild card. Nice job.
And with my wife being from New York and me being from Boston we argue over the big things (Sox-Yanks, Pats-Giants, Bruins-Rangers) and the one biggest argument is over Billy Joel. She loves him, I hate him.
I guess Paula Abdul and MC Skat Cat said it best, “Opposites Attract”.
Feb 11th, 2008
Carter
Joe, love the preview, and while Helton could have hit .400 (maybe) a few years ago, you can’t dismiss Holliday’s chances at the magic number in the future either. He, more than Puggles or Ichiro has a real chance out there, or up there, in Coorsville.
The Royals seem to be moving in the right direction, but I’ll wait until the pitchers preview to make my final judgment. One minor quibble is that, as much as I love the BJHandbook, the projections therein are a bit off in terms of playing time, since they make them so far in advance of the season. Might that be what’s affecting the difference between Gload/Sheely projections? And part of the Gordon difference? Just a thought….
Feb 11th, 2008
Andrew
Joe,
Royals Preview part I is fantastic, can’t wait for part II. Great writing as usual, keep up the good work.
Feb 11th, 2008
Andy
I like your thoughts on Teahen hitting 1st. In my opinion, the biggest acquisition for the Royals this offseason was Trey Hillman. If we don’t see shuffling of lineups and a new approach on getting runs across the plate, I will be disappointed. Our line up hasn’t changed that much from last year (remove E. Brown & Sweeney, insert Jose Guillen).
Feb 11th, 2008
Pat
Great work as always.
I’m a Billy Joel fan but was disappointed with his show at the Sprint Center a few months back.
I love that the Royals are bringing back the Powder Blues. However, I don’t understand why they aren’t wearing the entire ensemble (they are wearing white pants with a powder blue jersey.) I don’t get it.
Feb 11th, 2008
Oddibe Kerfeld
Do you think Kucinich would have done better in the primaries if Al Nipper had come out and endorsed him like Schilling did for McCain?
Feb 11th, 2008
Bowzer
Why not try Teahen at shortstop? He has been above average at 1B, 3B, and RF. Ripken wasn’t exactly Ozzie Smith in the field, but he played good defense for a lot of years. I think Teahen could do the same. And the Royals would have one less weak bat in the lineup.
Feb 11th, 2008
marbotty
Sorry to break it to you, Joe, but the outrageous scale only goes to 3.4.
Actually, I think you’re right on the money with Butler.
“What’s the matter with these white-walled tires?”
Feb 11th, 2008
Snowman
I think the perfect athlete endorsements for Kucinich would be Mark Fidrych, Bill Lee, and Dutch Daulton.
Feb 11th, 2008
Justyo
I remember having tickets to see Billy Joel in Madison Square Garden on what turned out to be the same night as Game 4 of the 1986 World Series. The Sox were up 2-1 in the series and I was very torn about whether or not to even attend the concert. I liked Billy, didn’t love him - more of a Zep guy - but loved to go to concerts and was interested in seeing Billy at MSG for the sheer spectacle of it. However, in 1986 us Sox fans were in the depths of another era, the misery era, one that seems like a dream now and here we were in the World Series with a lead. So I was torn. Anyway, my buddy said he’d bring his transistor radio and suggested we could steal glimpses on the TV’s in the luxury boxes and Hell, it was MSG they would have to have the score up somewhere. So we went. And I, being a born and bred Bostonian was glad to be kept abreast of the score all night (every inning) by none other than by Billy himself, who was sporting a Mets cap and jersey at the start of the show. (Did I mention my buddy was a Mets fan too?) Only problem was the Mets were leading all night. I also remember Billy Joel rocked. Rocked. Later he stopped the show to announce the Mets had scored two in the seventh and were now up 5-0. Maybe that was his inspiration but that concert was so good I’ll even admit to (Hmmm…. should I really do this) humming along to “She’s always a woman”. He was really feeling it. Anyway, on that night, in that sold out standing room only arena, every New Yorker was a Met fan and when the game was over and Billy announced the victory the place exploded. I therefore have to give Billy credit for two things - being a true baseball fan and seizing the moment one night in 1986 and entertaining the Hell out of me.
Feb 11th, 2008
Perry
But I thought Billy Joel was a Yankees fan? Didn’t we used to see him wearing Yankee stuff on album covers, in the Stadium during the ‘77-’78 WS, etc.? So he’s a Sports Bigamist as well as a schlockmeister?
Feb 11th, 2008
Justyo
Hey Perry, honestly I was unsure of his team pedigree or his album cover but after a minute of research I found this… From a Cleveland paper with a picture of him with Chief Wahoo.
===
Don’t spread this word around to Barfield and the rest of the Indians, but even though Joel was wearing an Indians cap for this appearance, he’s really a Yankees fan.
“Originally, I was a Brooklyn Dodgers fan,” he said. “But then when they moved, it broke my heart, so I switched teams. I went to the [darned] Yankees. But I grew up in Long Island, so, if the Mets win, I win. If the Yankees win, I win.”
Feb 11th, 2008
Snowman
No man should ever have to go to the [darned] Yankees. The Dodgers should all burn in [a fire] for putting someone in that position.
Feb 11th, 2008
Terence Reilly
You made the font too small with your recent changes. Your readers are getting old.
Feb 12th, 2008
JT
I love this blog, but it has had more set changes than the Pat Sajak Show.
Feb 12th, 2008
Alan
For your Gathright guy, they say power at the corners. But I saw Joey win some games last year with his feet in left field. He gave you a dimension no one else on last year’s team had; even at the plate.
He’s like the speedy tailback who keeps running for one yard; two yards; one yard. And then, all of a sudden, he breaks one. There’s always the potential for something exciting to happen.
I like baseball players the best. But speed can kill.
Bunt. Slap to the left side. Walk. Steal. And , all of a sudden, you have yourself a player. Maybe Hillman will help him continue to improve.
Purchased the book, tonight. It was time.
Feb 12th, 2008
Greg P.
I saw Billy Joel in concert in May 1979. He was good then. My tastes have improved since I was in college, though. I can’t believe I went to see Billy Joel and The Ramones in the same month. Wow.
Feb 12th, 2008
Greg P.
PS - how come the date/time stamp is 5 hours ahead of where I am?
Feb 12th, 2008
Brian
I actually like Piano Man. It reminds me of being the drunkest I’ve ever been (in a good way).
Feb 12th, 2008
Bill
In my book this spring I argued that the time had come that Esteban German had to play. In my view, it just is no longer sensible to suggest that Mark Grudzielanek is a better player than German. If the only way they can play German is to bench Grudzielanek, then. . .bench Grudzielanek.
Obviously you are closer to the team than I am, so I’m not dismissing the possibility that you could have it right.
Feb 13th, 2008
Jeff P.
I wish they would bench Grudz and give German a chance to play everyday. But I wanted to see Huber play everyday last year and that didnt happen either.
Feb 14th, 2008
Chris
Bench Grud??!! Bench Grud!!?? Are you crazy?? The guy has a Gold Glove!! Don’t you know anything about baseball?? The only factors worthy of determining a players value are Gold Gloves and All-Star appearances!!
Feb 14th, 2008
Tim Lacy
Grudzielanek plays because of acceptable stats, but more for his leadership and experience. The Royals need this but, yes, it’s too bad he’s blocking the chance for German. …I love German’s stats, but I can’t vouch for his leadership and experience. Perseverance, yes, for his time spent in the minors, but not the other two intangibles. - TL
Feb 14th, 2008
Shawn
I’m assuming Chris is joking with his comment, but the Gold Glove seemed more like a career achievement award or a recognition of how difficult it is to play that many games with so few errors.
However, the stats guys seem to think Grudz has pretty much the worst SS range in MLB and players with lesser range tend to make fewer errors (except for Derek Jeter who manages quite a few while also managing to let every other ball through the infield. Actually Jeter’s fielding brings up another player who should be starting for the Royals, Joey Gathright. It would have happened to SS far superior to Jeter, but watching Gathright continually chopping the ball to Jeter and then watching everybody’s favorite - or at least Peter King’s - player just laugh each time because he had no play was probably the highlight of last season.)
German’s stats tanked during the second half of last season, but I would have liked to see any other member of the Royals do better in his situation. Clearly undervalued by Bell who tried to play him only in times of great necessity - which on the Royals is two out of three days - German had to constantly play different positions, different spots in the order, and unlike Bell’s favorites, any single bad game could put him on the bench for a week or two until calamity struck again.
Is it any surprise that German doesn’t look like a great fielder and has trouble keeping his OPS up in those circumstances? During the first month of the season when he was playing pretty regularly, German was the Royals best hitter. He has spectacular plate discipline and good speed on the bases. It would be surprising if he failed to contribute on most MLB teams, but to be continually pushed aside on a team as offensively-challenged as the Royals is a real tragedy.
Hillman is the most exciting development for the Royals in a long time, and considering his former experience, it would seem possible that German and Gathright will get their shots.
Also, for those of us who have been posting in favor of German on the Star’s message board for ages, having someone with Bill James’ pedigree place his voice in our camp is a truly wonderful occurrence.
Feb 14th, 2008
Tim Lacy
Joe,
When will Part II make its appearance? I ask because I think the Royals will win enough games to be 5 over .500. The key is pitching because I think Hillman’s small-ball strategy will take a lot of offensive pressure off the players. In sum, they’ll score more because they actually have a small-ball plan to score—a plan Buddy, God bless him, never seemed to have. It’s paradox, I know, but these million-dollar bodies still need something to soothe their minds—to politely paraphrase Crash from Bull Durham.
- Tim
Feb 15th, 2008
Tim Lacy
By the way, is your “proudly powered” statement below a joke?! I just noticed this disturbing little link. - TL
Feb 15th, 2008
Craig Scholes
I have been saying the same thing about Gathright for a year and a half, he is my favorite Royal, I only wish I had came up with the poor mans Ichiro. I have seen the video where he jumps over a car like infinity times.
Mar 25th, 2008
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