I was going to begin this post by listing off all the things are as fun as tallying up Pozcars ballots, but … actually, I just did. There are more painful ways to punish yourself, I’m sure, than creating a fake award and then totaling by hand (or by spreadsheet) the 254 voters. For instance, here’s one way to make it more painful — you can forget to tell people to send in their ballots in ALPHABETICAL ORDER. That way people will send in a ballot that looks like this:
Alan Trammell
Harold Baines
Lee Smith
Dale Murphy
Pete Rose
Bert Blyleven
Tim Raines
Goose Gossage
Tommy John
That might not look like much to you. But to me, seeing the T followed by the B followed by the S followed by the M — you know that scene in falling down where Michael Douglas loses it in the fast food restaurant. Yeah. Like that. I want to thank those of you who, for whatever reason, sent in your ballot in alphabetical order. There is a place in organizational heaven reserved for you and you alone.
OK, a few Pozcars stats. There were 254 voters from at least 10 countries, and these include some ultra famous baseball writers, an TV actor, a comedian, a couple of best-selling authors, at least one trademark lawyer (who offered to help trademark The Pozcars™), a wise reader who bought up the www.pozcars.com domain name, another wise reader who apparently started a facebook Pozcars group and lots of shmoes like me. It’s clear to me that the Pozcars voters are the most qualified voters in all the world no matter what we happen to be voting on.
For those of you who wrote in late to ask for a Pozcars vote, I’m apologize, but my meager organizational skills forced me to lock you out on this vote. But I will open the registration process again for the next vote (assuming there is a next vote). And for those of you who boldly sent in your ballots without an invitation, I did try to include your vote. And for those of you whose votes were somehow lost in the system because of my own computer incompetence, I apologize. The good news for you is, I’m sure I miscounted the ones I already had, so I’m sure I would have missed your vote anyway.
With that, we will now unveil the Pozcars final vote totals in completely random order — to honor those people who made my life miserable. I know, it’s not your fault — I didn’t tell you to put them in order. I know. I can tell you that three players received the 75% necessary to be inducted as Pozcars Hall of Famers in 2007. They will be honored in some fashion that I have not yet come up with — maybe I’ll send them T-shirts assuming we ever have those made.
Who are those three Pozcars Pioneers? It’s all so exciting, isn’t it? I only wish that Alyssa Milano were here right now to play host (sadly, she is not one of the voters yet — got all these offers from you folks and not one friend of Alyssa Milano wrote in. Sheesh. You people).
* * *
Quote from Pozcars voter Bill James: “I’m reserving the right to be outrageously angry about the outcome no matter who is elected.”
* * *
Jim Rice received 31.89% of the vote.
I’m a little surprised his total is this low because I do believe a disproportionate number of readers of this blog are Red Sox fans. Then again, at least from a few of the comments I received, some Red Sox fans don’t believe he was a Hall of Fame either.
A request was put in to give Jim Rice the Morris treatment — that is, break down his famed 12-year prime from 1975-86 (when, overall, he led baseball in like 294 offensive categories) and see if he was actually among the best players in baseball year after year or if, like Morris, he just piled up his numbers by being an OK player consistently. Unfortunately, I don’t have the time to really do this right — so I’m just going to use Win Shares. If you are one of those people who don’t like Win Shares, you should probably just skip to the next section.
I went into this believing that Rice’s case is significantly different. Morris was never, not even for a single year, a great pitcher in my opinion. Rice, I think, was a truly great hitter for a few of those 12 years. But let’s let see what the numbers say.
1975: Rice had 20 win shares, which tied him for 60th in baseball.
1976: Rice had 17 win shares, which tied for 92nd in baseball.
Yikes, 28 walks in 581 at-bats, Rice was a big-time hacker in those early years.
1977: Rice had 26 win shares, which tied him for 20th in baseball.
1978: Rice had 37 win shares, second in baseball.
You know I realize that Win Shares are not the end-all, and plenty of people might think they’re hopelessly flawed and worthless and all that. But it still amazes me that Jim Rice’s world-class 1978 season, a season that seemed impossibly dominant at the time, ranks SECOND in Win Shares to another guy on the Hall of Fame ballot. I don’t know — you be the judge. Who had the better season?
Jim Rice: .315/.370/.600, 25 doubles, 15 triples, 46 homers, 121 runs, 139 RBIs, 213 hits, 406 total bases, 157 OPS+.
Wow, pretty stout.
Dave Parker: .334/.394/.585, 32 doubles, 12 triples, 30 homers, 102 runs, 117 RBIs, 20 steals, 23 IBB, 166 OPS+.
Hmm. Consider defense too — you could probably call them co-best players in baseball that year.
1979: Rice has 28 win shares, tied for 11th.
1980: Rice had 16 win shares, tied for 111th.
1981: Rice had 15 win shares, tied for 44th.
1982: Rice had 21 win shares, tied for 51st.
1983: Rice had 24 win shares, tied for 21st.
1984: Rice had 19 win shares, tied for 92nd.
1985: Rice had 14 win shares, tied for 141st.
1986: Rice had 28 win shares, tied for 9th.
And there you go. It seems from this quick breakdown that in the 12-year period we are talking about Rice had one legendary season, two near-MVP-type seasons and three or four more good solid seasons. He had three or four mediocre to bad seasons too.
From 1977-79, he was a beast — but was that run legendary? Maybe not. He had a grand total of 90 win shares over those three years. Win Shares still places him third in baseball behind Dave Parker (101) and — this one will get you — Ken Singleton (96).
Ken Singleton?
Rice (1977-79): .320/.376/.596, 93 doubles, 36 triples, 124 homers, 342 runs, 383 RBIs, 153 OPS+.
Singleton (1977-79): .305/.417/.502, 73 doubles, 3 triples, 79 homers, 250 runs, 291 RBIs, 157 OPS+.
I’ll give the edge to Rice, but when you consider the huge gap in OBP and ballpark, it’s close. Over the entire 12 years, Rice tied for seventh in Win Shares (with Eddie Murray), which is pretty good, but there are a couple of non Hall of Famers ranked in front of him. One is Keith Hernandez, who I think should have his Hall of Fame case reopened, especially if Don Mattingly starts gaining traction. The other is an outfielder — Jose Cruz.
All in all, Rice had a much better peak than Jack Morris. Was it a Hall of Fame peak? Not for me to say. Exactly 68.25% of Pozcars voters say no.
* * *
Brady Anderson received 1.18% of the vote.
One of the three people who voted for Brady Anderson — former major league pitcher Al Fitzmorris. Why? “Because of Brady Anderson, I got to meet Ashley Judd.” Now THAT’S a Pozcars voter.
* * *
Dave Concepcion received 9.06% of the vote.
Just how good a fielder was Concepcion anyway? Was he Top 5 all-time? Was he as good as Aparicio, Rizutto and some of the other great defensive shortstops in the Hall? Better? I ask because offensively, for a shortstop in a low scoring era, Davey has his strong points. He was an above-average hitter (by OPS+) six times in his career, he stole 321 bases at a pretty high percentage, he hit 100 homers in his career along with almost 2,400 hits. Of course, that’s not a Hall of Fame career unless Concepcion was a truly legendary defensive shortstop, spoken in the same breath with Ozzie and Pee Wee. Well, was he? I don’t know. I’m working on this 1975 Reds book. I’ll try to find out.
* * *
Mark McGwire received 53.15% of the vote.
America remains split. Or Pozcars voters do anyway.
* * *
Chuck Knoblauch received 0.39% of the vote.
Hard to believe, but for a three-year period there — 1994-96 — the guy was every bit of a Hall of Famer.
* * *
Pete Rose received 46.85% of the vote.
Joe Jackson received 52.76% of the vote.
It did surprise me that quite a few Pozcars voters gave Jackson the vote but not Rose. I’m only guessing, but I suspect it came down to three things: The movie portrayals of Jackson as the innocent (or as the Michael Landonesque angel who saved James Earl Jones and brought Kevin Costner and his Dad together); the fact that Jackson’s been dead for more than a half century while Rose signs autographs in Vegas; the fact that Pete Rose lied.
There may be something else, something that I have obviously been thinking a lot about lately. I suspect there is now at least one, maybe two generations of baseball fans who really did not see Pete Rose in his prime, when he was unique, a force of nature, the most irresistible force in the room. Everyone here I suspect knows what a stats guy I am, and yet I think the further we get away from Rose’s prime, the more difficult I think it is to look at those big numbers and find the one-of-a-kind player Rose was — selfish, intense, ferocious, indestructible, generous, obsessive, money-hungry and absolutely more in love with the day-to-day life of baseball than anyone. I would say the biggest goal of the Red Machine book will be to get at the heart of THAT player — before the records, the gambling and everything else.
* * *
Todd Stottlemeyer received 0.39% of the vote.
Jose Rijo received 1.18% of the vote.
Neither one ever won more than 15 games in a season, but Rijo was a substantially better pitcher. The more I think about it, the more it seems to me that pitching victories is the single most flawed mainstream statistic going. It may have made some sense once, back when pitchers threw complete games pretty much every time out, but those days are long gone.
This will lead some people to say, “But winning is really all that matters for a starting pitcher. You have to judge them by wins and losses.” OK, let’s say this is true. I would like to make an official recommendation that pitchers’ record from now on be the TEAM’S record on the days they pitch. That’s it. If we’re going to use a simple and flawed statistic like wins to judge pitchers based on their team’s performance, then let’s go all the way. No more no-decisions. No more five-inning minimum. Let’s just put it out there. You start a game, you are tagged with the win or loss no matter what.
Last year the Reds went 24-10 when Aaron Harang was on the mound.
The Red Sox went 21-9 when Josh Beckett was on the mound.
What does that mean? I’m not exactly sure, but what the hell? It means SOMETHING. It seems to me that if we are already placing wins and losses in a pitcher’s hands, we should just go all the way. Call it the the True Won-Loss Record. This would also mean that relievers would have no won/loss record, which I think would be great — win/loss records for relievers are even more pointless than they are for starters. We need to create a simple mainstream statistic just for them.
Incidentally, True Won-Loss Records are available on Baseball-Reference, but as far as I can see you have to go to the individual’s gamelog page to see them. We’ll have to see if Pozcars voter Sean Forman can help us spread the gospel.
* * *
Harold Baines received 5.51% of the vote.
He didn’t get many votes (14) but most of his voters were passionate. I’m curious — what if Harold Baines had put up exactly the same numbers but had also been an average-to-above average first baseman until the last, say, two or three years of his baseball life? A decent first baseman with 2,866 hits, 384 homers, 1628 RBIs (26th all-time) and everything else. He gets in eventually, right?
I don’t know. We’ll see how the voters treat Fred McGriff.
* * *
BERT BLYLEVEN RECEIVED 81.89% OF THE VOTE. HE’S IN.
Here’s our first Pozcars winner. Circle yourself Bert.
* * *
Rod Beck received 1.18% of the vote.
Shawon Dunston received 1.18% of the vote.
Rod deserved better than Shawon, if nothing else.
* * *
Jack Morris received 8.66% of the vote.
There has probably been enough said about Jack on this site.
* * *
Alan Trammell received 54.33% of the vote.
Lots of people suggested a Trammell-Whitaker double entry into the Hall. You know, in all seriousness, it would be kind of fun if the Hall of Fame could think a bit more out of the box. People would come to see the Whitaker/Trammell plaque. Maybe a Tinkers-Evers-Chance single plaque rather than giving all three of those guys a place in the Hall. Maybe a “Hall of Famers we regret” wing.
* * *
Dave Parker received 5.91% of the vote
Andre Dawson received 37.01% of the vote.
They both won one MVP award, they put up somewhat similar numbers (2700-2800 hits, 500-525 doubles, 75-100 triples, 119-121 OPS+, etc — Dawson had significantly more homers and stolen bases and played one full season more).
Was Dawson a better player than Dave Parker? Most people would say that. Pozcars voters DID say that. Dawson certainly was a steadier performer and a more a complete combination of power and speed. He also did not have the five-year drug-induced gap in the middle of his career, and this is no small thing. I would take Dawson’s career, certainly.
I would also say that Parker’s prime — 1975-79 — he was a better player than Dawson in his prime.
* * *
TIM RAINES RECEIVED 80.31% OF THE VOTE. HE’S IN.
No need to convince Pozcars voters of Tim Raines greatness. Wouldn’t this just be a better baseball world if batting average was eliminated and replaced by on-base percentage? If we could just say, “Tim Raines hit .385” so that people could just appreciate the man? Damn Henry Chadwick for ignoring walks. Damn him.
* * *
Tommy John received 21.65% of the vote.
I think a Tommy John-Dr. Frank Jobe pairing would be perfect in the Whitaker-Trammell wing of the Hall of Fame.
* * *
Chuck Finley received 1.97% of the vote.
Dave Justice received 1.97% of the vote.
Tawny Kitaen and Halle Berry received half of those votes.
* * *
Lee Smith received 20.08% of the vote.
I don’t think anyone quite how to measure relievers — me included. I suspect that now, after his saves record has been broken, Lee Arthur will draw diminishing support. I don’t know if that’s fair or not. It’s worth pointing out here that Lee Smith had a better-than-league average ERA for 17 consecutive seasons, and I don’t know how many other pitchers can say that.
* * *
Dale Murphy received 27.17% of the vote.
Murphy is a guy who, I think, would have been honored by the Old Time Veteran’s Committee (OTVC). He was a truly great player for five or six years, and he was a great guy who represented the game well. The veterans committee would have put him into the Hall of Fame, lots of people would have cheered because they loved Murph, lots of people would have complained about the diminishing standards in the world today, and lots of people would have used Murphy to present their cases for George Foster or Jack Clark or Ron Santo. Yes, I miss the old veteran’s committee.
I do have to say that I’m surprised that the veteran’s committee was never able to get Gil Hodges into the Hall. From what I can gather, he was sort of the Dale Murphy of his time (with the added bonus that he maned the 1969 Mets — I’m really going to push Hodges for a Buck O’Neil Lifetime Achievement Award. Murphy too, maybe).
* * *
Don Mattingly received 14.57% of the vote.
I can only imagine how many people have looked at Donnie Baseball’s career numbers and just wished they were better. Another OTVC choice for sure.
* * *
Travis Fryman received 1.57% of the vote.
Robb Nen received 1.57% of the vote.
I can’t think of anything to say about that.
* * *
GOOSE GOSSAGE RECEIVED 75.59% OF THE VOTE. THE GOOSE IS LOOSE!
Whew, that was close. He was swaying in the Pozcars breeze, but for some reason there was a late charge of Gossage voters, and he got in. I think he will get into that other Hall of Fame too this year.
* * *
OK, that’s it. Here are final results (out of 254 votes)
Bert Blyleven, 208 votes, 81.89%
Tim Raines, 204 votes, 80.31%
Goose Gossage, 192 votes, 75.59%
Alan Trammell, 138 votes, 54.33%
Mark McGwire, 135 votes, 53.15%
Joe Jackson, 134 votes, 52.76%
Pete Rose, 119 votes, 46.85%
Andre Dawson, 94 votes, 37.01%
Jim Rice, 81 votes, 31.89%
Dale Murphy, 69 votes, 27.17%
Tommy John, 55 votes, 21.65%
Lee Smith, 51 votes, 20.08%
Don Mattingly, 37 votes, 14.57%
Dave Concepcion, 23 votes, 9.06%
Jack Morris, 22 votes, 8.66%
Dave Parker, 15 votes, 5.91%
Harold Baines, 14 votes, 5.51%
Chuck Finley, 5 votes, 1.97%
David Justice, 5 votes, 1.97%
Travis Fryman, 4 votes, 1.57%
Robb Nen, 4 votes, 1.57%
Brady Anderson, 3 votes, 1.18%
Rod Beck, 3 votes, 1.18%
Shawon Dunston, 3 votes, 1.18%
Jose Rijo, 3 votes, 1.18%
Chuck Knoblauch, 1 vote, 0.39%
Todd Stottlemyre, 1 vote, .39%
Write-ins included: Buck O’Neil, Dwight Evans (2), Jim Kaat (2), Lou Whitaker (5), Frank White (3), Will Clark, Ron Santo (3), Albert Belle (3), Ted Simmons, Whitey Herzog, Cesar Cedeno, Marvin Miller, Mark Grace, Bill James and Frank Howard. We might put all of them on a new Pozcars ballot once I check out of balloting rehab.
I was going to begin this post by listing off all the things are as fun as tallying up Pozcars ballots, but ... actually, I just did. There are more painful ways to punish yourself, I’m sure, than creating a fake award and then totaling by hand (or by spreadsheet) the 254 voters. For instance, here’s one way to make it more painful -- you can forget to tell people to send in their ballots in ALPHABETICAL ORDER. That way people will ... Read More
Loading ...