KANSAS CITY — Royals general manager Dayton Moore did not deny that the Royals finished a very close second in their efforts to acquire two-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana on Tuesday.
“Come on,” Moore said. “You’re just being stupid now.”
OK, fine. You know what’s funny? I’m here in Phoenix, living that week of Super Bowl madness, and Tuesday afternoon I got at least 10 emails and text messages from baseball people within minutes of the Johan Santana trade announcement. My phone just kept buzzing, and so in about a 20-minute span I went from thinking this was one of the worst trades in baseball history, to a reasonably decent trade, to a horrendous trade, to a somewhat passable trade, to a good trade, back to the worst trade ever. People in the game — at least the people I know — appear to be all over the map on this one.
The deal, as you no doubt know by now, sends Santana to the Mets for four prospects, outfielder Carlos Gomez (22), pitcher Phillip Humber (25), pitcher Deolis Guerra (18), and Kevin Mulvey (22). The deal is contingent on Santana cutting a long-term deal with the Mets — they have a 48-72 hour window to do that. Obviously that will happen, even if Santana asks for a billion jillion shmillion dollars. What, the Mets are going to hold a press conference to announce that they have to send Santana BACK TO THE TWINS? I don’t think so. That press conference would be followed by an announcement that the Mets will be playing next year’s games at the bottom of the East River.
The first person who texted me — the one who actually told me about the deal — is a friend of mine who is a scout. He HATED this deal for the Twins. “What in the hell are they doing?” he wrote, though he can’t really spell, at least on a phone, so it came out more like “Wat in the hel r they doooing?” His big problem is that he’s seen Gomez, the centerpiece of the deal, and doesn’t like him at all. Gomez is a 22-year-old outfielder a whole lot of speed and a body that projects powers. That part sounds good. But my friend thinks he had no plate discipline, swings and misses a lot and, like a lot of those toolsy guys, won’t ever hit enough — reminds me a lot of an old Royals prospect who was, coincidentally, also a Gomez, Alexis Gomez. Had lots of tools. And he might be a carpenter now.
Needless to say my scout friend isn’t especially crazy about the other three guys in the deal either — he just thinks it was a bad deal all the way around. OK, well, I trust this guy’s judgment a lot. So I figure … bad deal.
Then I hear from another friend, this guy’s in baseball management, and he thinks it’s a pretty good trade. Why? For one thing, he likes Gomez, likes his potential, and he really likes the arms the Twins got. He says that Humber has a good arm and is major league ready, and Mulvey has a chance to be a good No. 4 starter, and that while Guerra is young and a few years off, he’s big and has an electric arm — he could be one of those guys who just emerges throwing 100 mph like Zumaya.
Well, that sounds a little better. Then I got an email from a baseball exec who hated the deal, maybe more than the first guy … again, he thinks Gomez is going to be a flop and he can’t believe they did not hold out for Mike Pelphrey, who seems like a better pitching prospect than anyone they got. OK, I had my majority. I was ready to go back to writing about the cranky 1972 Dolphins.
And then, almost simultaneously, I got a call from ANOTHER baseball executive who really liked the move — why are all these people coming at me about this trade when I’m at the Super Bowl? He liked it because he thinks Gomez has a chance to be a star; he thinks Gomez will be a Moises Alou type player (he even said that Bo Jackson’s name was on a couple of reports). He’s also very high on Mulvey, sees him as a very solid pitcher in the Jeff Suppan mold.
At this point my head is spinning. Then I got a text from one more baseball bigwig who said that the problem with Gomez is that he has some makeup issues, and there’s a pretty good chance he won’t ever reach his ceiling. But, this guy still liked the trade because he loves the arms.
So there you go. I heard from some other people about it too, but they more or less mirrored one of the above. Amazing. One trade, at least five different opinions about it. I’ve mentioned that I’m working on a post about the Amateur Draft, and here’s what strikes me about that: Teams spend insane amounts of money to be right in the first round. They hire the best baseball evaluators in the world to work in huge scouting departments. They send in SWAT teams of scouts to look at players — area scouts, cross checkers, special assistants, it’s like a CIA operation. They spend dozens of hours studying films on these guys. They do intensive background checks. And then, of course, they turn over these prize players to the best baseball developers in the world, who spend countless hours honing their skills, developing their attitude, rounding out their talents. And in the end, after all that, most of the players flop in Fresno, become casualties in Corpus Christi, die in Delmarva.
And I mean “MOST.” It seems fair to say that teams should expect to get an everyday player, full-time starter or valuable bullpen arm in the first round — and if that’s true they are wrong about 75% of the time. Why? Players get hurt. Players lose confidence. Players run into unexpected issues. Players don’t develop as expected, either physically or mentally. Players lose interest. Etc. Etc.
But I think there’s something else — baseball is a brutally hard game to predict. And I think this trade proves it. Here you have a major trade involving five players, all with some sort of professional track record, and the opinions about it (again, just from the people I know) are all over the map. I would say there’s a bigger consensus among fans (and I include myself here) — most of think this was a pretty sorry trade for the Twins; based on reports, they might have gotten Jacoby Ellsbury or Joba Chamberlain or some other bigger name prospect. Of course, you never know about reports.
But here’s the thing: If Gomez develops as some think he will — Moises Alou — then he alone could make this a winning trade for the Twins. Remember, they only had one year of Santana left. If on top of that they get some help from those arms, if Guerra turns into a Francisco Liriano, if Mulvey or Humber win 15 in the next couple of years, then it could be a Twins steal, a franchise-making move. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but what do I know? What does anyone know? That’s why it’s a great game. Albert Pujols was drafted in the 13th round. Nobody knows nothing.
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49 Comments, Comment or Ping
gogiggs
I think this is a great trade… for the Indians! Johan Santana is out of the Central (yeah, I know the Indians beat him 5 times last year, but do you want to count on that repeating?) and NOT with the Yankees or Red Sox. Since there was no way Santana was coming to Cleveland, this is pretty much the best result I could have hoped for.
(Santana pitched against Cleveland 6 times last year and went 1-5. Of course, one of those losses was a 2-0 game where Santana struck out 11 and the Twins scored no more than 3 runs in any of the 6 games.)
Jan 30th, 2008
Clayton
“But I think there’s something else — baseball is a brutally hard game to predict. ”
Yeah you right, but as a Mets fan I predict this: Gomez will be an All-Star, Humber IS major league ready…champagne all over the streets around Shea.
Great trade all around. Twins weren’t gonna git no champagne anyway.
Jan 30th, 2008
Mauichuck
To continue the Cleveland-centric theme, I always think of the Bartolo Colon trade for Lee Stevens, Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips and Grady Sizemore.
Stevens was little more than ballast in that trade. Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips were the centerpieces. Lee’s ceiling was not as high as Colon’s but he was viewed as a number 2 to 4 starter. Phillips was the hot, can’t miss prospect. Only thing is, he missed with the Indians - after repeated attempts to get him in the every day line-up - only to explode with the Reds. And Sizemore was a throw-in. So when the smoke cleared Sizemore was the prize, Phillips will end up as a serviceable to great starter and Cliff Lee appears destined to be an AAAA pitcher.
Bottom line: prospects are just that: prospects. If you can tell the Alex Escobars from the Grady Sizemores of the world you can write your own ticket.
Jan 30th, 2008
Royalfan
Santana may ink a long-term mega deal, and then go out and pitch like Barry Zito did last year. Pitchers are a huge risk—a lot of teams have been burned making a big trade for an “ace.”
Jan 30th, 2008
Jeff P.
Santana has dominated NL teams in inter-league play so I think he is going to be successful. I dont think there is a chance that the Mets lose this trade, the best the Twins can hope for is a push.
Jan 30th, 2008
Paulson
As a Twins fan, the worst part is waiting…
Jan 30th, 2008
Dan
Joe,
you’re right that no one knows nothin’ - but there is no way to look at this trade and not believe that this package is far, far weaker than any of the packages that were on the table in December from the Yanks and Sox.
The best thing that could happen for the Twins is for Santana to actually overplay his hand, hold out for seven years, and have the trade blow up. They are more likely to get a better package in July from a contender - and who is to say that Santana wouldn’t allow himself to be a rental if it meant a great shot at a ring? I know the Mets can’t let that happen but they have been talking about no more than five years for a pitcher.
But the bottom line on this trade is that it is far more likely to be one of the worst of all-time than it is to be anything like a “good” deal for the Twins.
Jan 30th, 2008
Mattbert
There is a world of difference between Santana and Zito, despite the fact that both guys have been considered “aces” at some point in their careers. The ace label is just that, a label. Gil Meche is an ace too, but that doesn’t make him anywhere near as good as Santana.
This is reflected in the price that the Mets had to pay for Santana versus the price that the Giants had to pay for Zito. Even though the consensus seems to be that the Mets got a good deal, they are committing talent *and* money to get Santana, probably a whole lot of money. Zito, on the other hand, only cost the Giants money; entirely too much money, but that’s beside the point.
The chance that Santana stinks it up at Shea next year is almost vanishingly small. He’s well established as a guy who’s going to be among the very best pitchers in the game (if not *the* best) year in and year out. And now he’s moving to a league where he won’t have to face the DH and will be facing fewer strong offensive teams in general than he did in the AL. Shea is a good park for pitchers, and the Mets have a pretty good defense. The conditions are all in favor of Santana having some monster seasons as a Met; should be great fun to watch.
Jan 30th, 2008
Oddibe Kerfeld
“Make up issues”? Would that involve trading for Revlon or Cover Girl?
Jan 30th, 2008
Paul White
The only way the Mets lose this trade is if Santana gets hurt, even if the prospects all become good/great players. Johan Santana is NOT Barry Zito; there are no quote marks around his ace. Zito was overrated when he was good, and hasn’t really been that good since, while Santana, if anything, was actually underrated for a while (see Cy Young Award, 2005).
To me it looks like the Twins got a little too smart for their own good, trying to play the Red Sox and Yankees against each other. They reminded me of one of those “The Price Is Right” contestants in the Showcase Showdown who pass the showcase with the trip to Bermuda and the twin jet skis to the other contestant, only to find out that the second showcase consists of Bassett living room furniture and a set of Correll dinner ware.
Jan 30th, 2008
Mikey
As a New Yorker I’m surprised at how sanguine Yanks and Sox fans are about this deal. I got ten e-mails yesterday afternoon from friends - fans of both teams - saying “I just didn’t want to see him go to (the other guys)”
No mention of needing to get better to beat Cleveland or Detroit. I shouldn’t be surprised by Yanks-Sox tunnel vision but in this case I am.
I don’t think this will be remotely close to Barry Zito, who built his rep in a great pitcher’s park. Santana moves to a better pitcher’s park and a weaker-hitting league. He is going to murder the NL.
Jan 30th, 2008
Josh
I think this trade exemplifies a shift in baseball thinking. There was a time when prospects were as a whole underrated and any prospect was available for an established major leaguer. Now it seems all prospects are over-valued. In my mind when looking at Santana how would the Yankees not give up Kennedy and Hughes? Or the Red Sox not give up Ellsbury and Lester? I mean those are 4 good prospects… but how often do prospects fail to live up to their potential? 50%? more? And how often can you acquire the best pitcher in baseball at age 29?
Jan 30th, 2008
ToyCannon
Draft picks fail. Low A prospects fail. Guys who have produced in AA/AAA at a young age and have already shown success in the major leagues (Hughes, Lester, Kennedy, Ellsbury, Lowrie) don’t fail 50% of the time. One is not like the other.
These Met prospects could all fail, they do not have the success path that anyone of the key guys from the Yankee’s and Sox had on the table. This is a risky trade for the Twins. Seems to me that Santana told them he wanted to be a Met and they did the best they could do.
Jan 30th, 2008
Greg
Paul White, your Price is Right analogy just made my day.
I think your analysis of the Twins’ actions is spot on…they started out in the early offseason with some VERY strong offers from the Red Sox and Yanks and believed, given the need for those two teams to out-do each other, that they could work them throughout the offseason and get them to badly overpay for Santana.
As it turns out, both teams smartly kept their offers steady and never waivered, knowing they were bargaining from a position of strength in that they are both WS contenders without Santana and their farm systems are set to keep them contenders for many years. Also, the Twins could never seem to find any other teams to jump in on the negotiations, until the Mets began talking to them.
As time went on, I think the Red Sox and Yanks found a mutual understand that neither really wanted to make the deal for Santana and so they both cooled on the trade. I seriously doubt that either team would even still follow through on their initial offers, despite what reports have said. In the end, the Twins knew they had to make a move, but were stuck with only one real interested party (Mets), so they got less for Santana than they probably could have if they had played their cards more effectively.
What they ended up getting from the Mets may be fine (or it may not), but I certainly think they could’ve gotten more, and it’s that opportunity cost that really makes this deal sting a little.
Jan 30th, 2008
James
First off this trade exemplifies everything wrong with baseball. There is something wrong about having to trade the best player in the league (best pitcher - what is more important position player or pitcher?) because you can’t pay him what another team will. However, this trade might have occurred because the Santana thinks the Twins are nolonger competitive. He sees the talent that is coming up and he watched another big time player leave. (Hunter) This trade looks like it happened because Santana thinks the ship is sinking and he can get on and when somewhere else.
Jan 30th, 2008
Josh
ToyCannon-
I think it is a stretch to say all of those prospects have had success in the majors
Kennedy - 1 win, 19 innings
Lester - 11 wins, 140 innings, era near 5 whip near 1.5
Hughes - 5 wins, 72 inninngs, era 4.50
Lowrie - 0 at bats in majors
Now I agree the prospects from the Red Sox and Yankees are better (much better) than from the Mets (that were traded)… my point was they are not sure things top notch prospects flame out quite often (Van Poppel, Paul Wilson, Pulsipher, Brien Taylor, Ryan Anderson, Matt Anderson, etc) especially picthers due to injuries and other things…
My point is that Hughes, Lester, Kennedy etc may not make it… they my get hurt or just not reach their potential… so if you can get the best pitcher in baseball and cost is not a problem you trade good (to great) prospects for established talent… and this is even with the Twins not even asking for Buchholtz or Joba..
Jan 30th, 2008
Thomas
Mikey, you’re spot on with Sox/Yanks fans just satisfied that their rival didn’t land Santana (Sox fan myself). So why am I the first to posit that perhaps that kind of thinking is why the Twins shipped him off to Queens? They didn’t want to have to face him even 2 or 3 times a year with one of those AL teams. Kinda weak, I admit, but maybe it was a minor factor.
Jan 30th, 2008
will
As a Mets fan I should be thrilled today but the though of giving six years to an almost 30 year old pitcher, even one who has been the dominant, scares me. While the Mets may not have overpaid in terms of prospects they will surely be overpaying in terms of dollars and contract years. I guess I should just hope for the best though since it’s not my money.
Jan 30th, 2008
pedro the boxcutter
As a big Mets fan, I couldn’t be happier. Great, great day. The Greatest , even. I look forward to crushing Jimmy Rollins and Tom Glavine all season long.
Jan 30th, 2008
Mo
They were better off holding onto him and taking the draft picks.
Jan 30th, 2008
Emma
I think it’s a great trade for the Mets, but I do feel a pang seeing Carlos Gomez go.
First of all, he’s so ridiculously fast that he can get to difficult fly balls even when he completely misjudges them, which happens fairly often, and is always entertaining. Also, every time he comes to the plate, he lifts his bat to his nose and smells it… asked what he’s sniffing for, he said, “what else — hits.” I’m not claiming it’s any kind of substitute for Johan Santana’s changeup, but if he can hit even a little bit, I think Twins fans, who in my experience appreciate a good eccentricity, will enjoy him.
Jan 30th, 2008
Marc
It is precisely the “if” that makes this a good trade for both teams. If any one of prospects reaches his ceiling, its probably a relatively fair trade. If a second one contributes, maybe it looks like a great trade for the Twins. On the other hand, if all 4 fail, then the Twins look bad. And it is precisely that uncertainty that makes it fair right now. Me, having seen some of each of these players except Guerra, think that Mulvey will be a guy that surprises many. He won’t have anything overpowering, but will get batters out. He’ll turn out to be a pretty good No. 3/4 type pitcher. Gomez, I just don’t know whether he’ll continue to develop. But his history suggests that he will, as it usually takes him about 2-3 months to catch up to a league before he starts to get comfortable and produce with the bat, and at a young age. Humber I don’t think will pan out, which is a shame because before the injury, he was a strong No. 2. Now, I see a Paul Wilson type of career. He’ll have one or two decent seasons, but never reach that pre-injury potential. Guerra could be another Pedro. Kid supposedly knows how to pitch, but just has to mature and gain the experience and arm strength. But there is a far distance between where he is and that sort of potential and plenty can go wrong between now and then.
Jan 30th, 2008
Dan A
Excellent job!
It all depends on the how you look at the deal. Based on player value alone it is hard to argue that the Mets won, at least in the short term. But baseball is a business, how often do long term big money deals to star pitchers work in the teams favor long-term?? Do we think the Yanks felt Kennedy is a better pitcher than Santana, or Sox felt Lester was better, of course not, it was most likely the contract demands that made them walk away.
Despite one NY papers comparing Gomez to Willie Mays before the 2007 season, I don’t
think he will be the next Say Hey Kid. Gomez does have three strengths that should easily translate to the major league level; he can fly (Reyes admits that Gomez is faster than him) 50 SB’s is a real possibility even if he hits .240, he has gold glove potential in CF (which is important to the Twins who are accustomed to Hunter roaming CF), he has a tremendous arm for a guy playing CF. I don’t see him hitting
40 HR’s in the majors but he is still very young. He has never been a high average hitter in the minors which has to worry the Twins a little, and
he hates hitting at the top of the order (he sees himself as a 4-5 hitter).
Although he is the player who is often least mentioned when rating the prospects the
Twins received (the comment most often written is he is a 4 or 5 starter) I
would not be surprised to see Humber win 12-15 games THIS year for the Twins. He has a “start walking back to the dugout now” curveball and 2
other MLB ready pitches. The Mets drafted him number 3 in 2004. He has been slowed by injuries (Tommy John), but I think barring further injury is a pretty sure bet. Mulvey also should be a solid MLB pitcher (not ace stuff but lefties tend to peak later) and Guerra is only 18 years old and is the highest rated of the three pitchers, although comparisons to Zumaya may be a stretch as currently his fastball is around 90. His best pitch currently is his change-up.
Santana is great but what are the odds of him being healthy for 7 years??? (I look at his body type and mechanics and he reminds me a little of Mike Hampton, although clearly a better pitcher) The Mets will probably have to give him 21-24M per year over 6-7 years (plus he luxury tax costs). Minaya is rolling the dice big time. Unfortunately Omar backed himself in to a corner so he had to do the deal. Luckily for him, Santana has a no-trade and no other team (yes including the Yanks and Sox who were both probably more concerned with the other team getting him) was willing to give him that much money for that many years. The Mets/Minaya didn’t steal Santana as most NY newspapers claim, they just paid a larger price than anyone else was willing to pay.
There are so many variable, it may take a while to really determine who won.
Jan 30th, 2008
Justyo
I may not know much, but I know this. The Mets just picked up (barring injury) at least 20 team wins each season for the next 4 years. In a world full of unknowns, Santana is about as bankable as they come. This Red Sox fan thinks they ought to have gone to the mat for him. If they had Beckett and Santana for the next few years it would have been ridiculous. Especially with Dice and the young guns they have. In a 7 game series, having those two… Man. But at the same time the baseball fan in me is glad they didn’t do it. I suffered through years of the Yanks buying every free agent, including A-Rod, and cursed them repeatedly so in that sense, I’m glad the sox might have to compete for their next ring and not be fitted in Spring Training as they would have were they to land Mr. Santana. Congrats to all Mets fans. (and Indian fans). Personally, I think Santana will be even better in the NL.
Jan 30th, 2008
Jake
For 2008, this trade helps in this order:
1) The Mets (duh)
2) The AL Central
3) The rest of the AL (except NY and Bos)
The Tigers and Indians both have a markedly higher chance of reaching the playoffs, facing Perkins/Slowey/Bonser instead of Santana ~5 times this year.
The rest of the AL should also be happy, except for NY and Boston, who now have less of a chance to both get in the playoffs, because of the Tigers and Indians.
Jan 30th, 2008
Byron
“And Sizemore was a throw-in. ” Chuck, are you sure about this? I’m not saying that you’re wrong, but I remember Gammons going on Baseball Tonight and saying that Sizemore was the key to the deal.
As for the Santana deal, Smith made a rookie GM mistake and it cost him dearly. He tried playing the Yankees and the Red Sox off each other and ended up getting taken advantage of by Omar Minaya. That’s bad GMing right there.
With the move to Citi Park in 2009, the Mets have more than enough cash for Santana and they needed him more than the Yanks or the Sox. If just to get the sour taste of the 2007 collapse out of their fans’ mouth.
However, the last time the Twins traded the Mets their ace (Frank Viola), Minnesota was holding up the World Series trophy a year later.
Editor’s note: I have asked numerous GMs around baseball about the notion that Sizemore was a throw-in in the Colon deal; all of them say that it was well known throughout baseball that Sizemore, while very young, was a big-time prospect, and that he was a very important part of the deal. There’s no question that Brandon Phillips was the centerpiece position player in the trade, and the Indians whiffed on him (twice, if you want to be technical about it since they later traded him for Jeff Stevens). My sense of it is that Sizemore was viewed as a potential star, but he was barely 20 when the trade was made and lots of stuff can happen to 20-year-old potential stars. To me, this would be, in the Twins Santana deal, like if Carlos Gomez sucks but Deolis Guerra becoming a Cy Young winner. People will say that Guerra was not the big guy in the deal, and he’s not, but the Twins apparently love the guy too and wouldn’t have made the deal without him.
Jan 30th, 2008
Greg
I hardly see that the Sox and Yanks are losers in this deal- they both showed more discipline than one would have expected a few years ago, which says a lot about their respective changes in organizational ideology. As a Sox fan myself, I think this was by far the best possible outcome- Santana didn’t go to the Yanks, we didn’t waste our strongest kids and a large chunk of our payroll on him, and he’s out of the AL now. The Tigers have improved, sure, but with the amount of young talent coming up for the Sox/Yanks, their organic growth should be enough to keep them ahead of the rest of the pack in the AL. Should be a great season ahead, regardless.
I also think that when you evaluate this trade, it is essential to not only judge it by what the Twins received, but by what they could have received (assuming the reported offers from Boston/NY were accurate). I have to imagine the packages offered by the Yanks and Sox are stronger than what the Twins ended up getting, if only because they included more major-league-ready talent (and thus less risk of prospects failing). So in the end, the Twins wanted to hold out for more and ended up holding out for less. They can certainly play the small market card in saying they couldn’t afford to keep Santana, but they are entirely responsible for the trade they ended up making.
Jan 30th, 2008
Creston
That guy who liked the deal because he sees Gomez as a “Moises Alou” type and Mulvey as a “Jeff Suppan” and thinks this is a good deal, needs to get the hell out of baseball, RIGHT NOW.
Because, seriously, would you have traded Santana for Moises Alou and Jeff Suppan, straight up? So why trade him for two guys that “might be like them?”
This is a disastrous deal for the Twins. How do you trade the BEST pitcher in the game, bar nobody, and not even get the Mets’ number one prospect? I mean, seriously?
Unbelievable. Bill Smith’s tenure as Twins’ GM is so far off to a disastrous start. Stupid money for a ‘pretty good’ first baseman, and then trading your number one ace for a package of prospects that was far less than what, for example, the Red Sox had offered in two different packages.
I’d love to play poker against this guy, because he can’t bluff worth ****
Jan 30th, 2008
themetros
That guy who liked the deal because he sees Gomez as a “Moises Alou” type and Mulvey as a “Jeff Suppan” and thinks this is a good deal, needs to get the hell out of baseball, RIGHT NOW.
Because, seriously, would you have traded Santana for Moises Alou and Jeff Suppan, straight up? So why trade him for two guys that “might be like them?”
Moises Alou is one of the best pure hitters of our day. He is Hall of Fame good with the bat if not for the injuries. The man is 41 and has hit .300 or above in EVERY MONTH FOR HIS ENTIRE CAREER if you look at his averages. Please show me someone else who has accomplished that feat and not been the cream of the crop. Anyway, I do believe he is intimating it would be like Alou, without the injuries so do not let his health cloud things.
If they get one stud, one decent starter (that would be a Suppan-type), and a reliever, then they come out looking good and did get value back.
You have to look at it in the context of money and how much those types of players cost verus how many wins they add. They get three useful big league parts, one of which is All-Star caliber player, and they extracted value. Average players on the free agent market cost millions of dollars per win contributed.
Basically, this baseball guy who you think should leave baseball knows exactly what he is talking about.
Jan 30th, 2008
Paul White
“Moises Alou is one of the best pure hitters of our day. He is Hall of Fame good with the bat if not for the injuries. The man is 41 and has hit .300 or above in EVERY MONTH FOR HIS ENTIRE CAREER if you look at his averages.”
That would be really cool if it were true. Sadly….
Mar/Apr - .331 career AVG
May - .293
June - .291
July - .300
August - .296
Sept/Oct - .316
(And all of this presumes batting average is a meaningful statistic in the first place.)
Jan 30th, 2008
Doctor Tom
I disagree with the perception that this trade helps the Tribe. 2008 season, maybe, but this sets up a bidding war between the Yankers and the BoSox for Sabathia next offseason. C.C. will want the same deal as Santana at least. If the Tribe wants to sign C.C. they need to do it now.
Jan 30th, 2008
themetros
Ok, so I was a bit off as I was going off the top of my head, but I think you are missing the point here. My point is that if Gomez turns into Alou, it would be a tremendous deal for the Twins unlike what Creston said.
Also, I think it does provide some meaning in that his guy has been playing for 20 years and is ridiculously consistent at a high level, which not many people can do outside the best of the best.
Now, if he hit like LoDuca, I would say AVG is for the most part meaningless. But we are talking about a guy with a .517 career SLG% and an .886 career OPS.
Jan 30th, 2008
The Truth
This trade is even. Mets get better short and long term, Twins get 3 starters and CFer. While none will probably be as big as Santana individually, but Twins add important pitching depth. Plus Yankees and Sox already have pitchers. Twins only had Mets to deal with. Yanks and Sox rather hold on to their prospects.
Jan 30th, 2008
Paul White
No, I’m not missing your point, I’m just not agreeing with it. As you just said yourself, AVG is meaningless unless it’s coming from a guy with a good SLG or OPS. Well if the guy’s got a good SLG or OPS, why cite his AVG? It’s meaningless either way.
To your other point, I’d agree that if Carlos Gomez posts a career .517 SLG and .886 OPS while playing good center field defense, then it won’t be as bad a deal for the Twins. But that presumes:
1. He does all of this for the Twins, and not some other team.
2. He’s capable of doing it, which seems dubious based on the reports I’ve seen of him not really projecting to have much power.
3. Santana doesn’t maintain his current performance level much longer. Because I’ve got to tell you, if Santana posts five years for the Mets like he just done for the Twins, and we find him at 33-years old with 175 wins, 4 Cy Youngs, 2500+ K’s and a career ERA+ somewhere north of 140, then trading him straight up for a Moises Alou clone is still a mistake.
The Twins need Gomez to be Alou as a hitter AND play Gold Glove defense in center AND have one or more of the pitchers in this deal pan out for this to even approach an even swap, talent-wise. The only thing that keeps this from being completely inexcusable is the fact that their clock was ticking since Santana wasn’t going to re-sign there, and that forced them to take the best deal left on the table.
Jan 30th, 2008
Paul White
“…like he just done…”
Gosh, Mom would be proud. She learned me that thar english purdy good.
Jan 30th, 2008
themetros
Wow. This is spiraling downward. The point was not IF Gomez can do that or if he will still be around nor was I discussing any other aspect of the deal.
Creston was basically calling some guy in baseball dumb for saying if Gomez turns into Alou and someone turns in Suppan the trade will work out fine as if Alou (and Suppan for that matter) was chopped liver.
I was trying to say Alou would be just a fine player for him to turn into (health included of course) and the baseball guy is not in fact dumb but right on in terms of what type of value the Twins should be happy to get. Nothing more, nothing less.
I do not think you are necessarily disagreeing here either.
“The Twins need Gomez to be Alou as a hitter AND play Gold Glove defense in center AND have one or more of the pitchers in this deal pan out for this to even approach an even swap, talent-wise.”
Right, which is what I said in my first post and what the baseball guy originally said with his Alou and Suppan comparison. To repeat what I said above, if the Twins get one stud, one decent starter (that would be a Suppan-type), and a reliever, then they come out looking good and did get value back.
Of course, you can mix and match. The stud could be Guerra and Gomez or Mulvey could be your run of the mill Suppan equivalent player, but you get the idea.
Back to your original statement…
“No, I’m not missing your point, I’m just not agreeing with it. As you just said yourself, AVG is meaningless unless it’s coming from a guy with a good SLG or OPS. Well if the guy’s got a good SLG or OPS, why cite his AVG? It’s meaningless either way.”
I agree, but does Alou not have a nice SLG% and OPS? For his career I would say he has a very good SLG% and OPS thereby making what I said meaningful. Also, I was not trying to delve into some deep statistical analysis as to whether or not Alou is a great player. I understand batting average and its relative importance (or unimportance) and would not flatly state that as something to be overly impressed with if the player had nothing else going for him. However, the guy has been the model of consistency at a high level over a long period of time.
Jan 30th, 2008
Paul White
I think where we differ is in the difference between “getting value back” and “come out looking good”.
Presuming these prospects pan out, even just one of them, then sure, the Twins got value back.
But I just don’t happen to think they can possibly “come out looking good”. Gomez would have to be Willie Mays or something, or one of the pitchers would have to be near Santana level himself, and I simply don’t see that happening. If Santana continues his established career arc injury-free, then I think the Twins got soaked barring some miraculous, not-currently-projected performance from one or more of the prospects they got.
Jan 30th, 2008
Kyle
It’s unreasonable for people to try and evaluate this trade as a swap of talent.
*Clearly* in terms of just talent *right now*, Gomez, Humber, Mulvey and Guerra don’t match up with Santana. And the odds are that they won’t ever, but there is also the possibility that they could eclipse Sanata, albeit a small posibility. The Twins are trading for that lottery ticket.
Major League Baseball is still a business and between the four players the Twins got, they have roughly 20 years of below market cost controlled players. The Mets will have zero below market years of Santana. That, dear folks is why this a fair deal for the Twins.
How about this for a metaphor: You own a $1,000,000 home. But you decide you don’t want to pay the mortgage and have to sell it by the end of the year, or the bank forecloses. So you put it on the market. Unfortunately, you happen to be selling in a bad market, where there’s only one bidder. He offers you $700,000 for your $1M home. That’s allows you to move to a decent, but unspectacular $500,000 home, but you lose your million dollar mansion. There’s no doubt that the $1M mansion is better, and no reasonable person would argue otherwise, but at the same time, if you don’t want to pay the mortgage, then 70 cents on the dollar isn’t a bad deal. It’s either that, or wait till the end of the year and get nothing.
Jan 30th, 2008
Kyle
Paul White,
The problem with your arguement, in my opinion, is that once Carl Pohlad decided he wasn’t going to re-sign Santana, there is no way for the team “to come out looking good”. No package of prospects can be as good as Johan right now.
Thus to evaluate the trade, I think you need to look at:
(1) Why Pohlad won’t open his purse strings for Santana?
and once you wrap your head around that you move to:
(2) Why was the market so weak for the best pitcher in baseball? (no-trade clause, contract demands)
then
(3) given that, was this the best *possible* package of talent they *might* have got? (no, probably not)
and
(4) Given the time constraints imposed by Santana on any trade, was this a decent, if not spectacular *real* offer.
Jan 30th, 2008
Kyle
PS- I think the answer to (4) is yes, it was a decent offer and one the Twins were smart to take, given the conditions of (1), (2) and (3).
Jan 30th, 2008
Paul White
Kyle,
I understand your points, and agree with most of them, and it seems we agree on the only one I was trying to make, namely that there was no way the Twins to come out looking good in this situation. That’s intended as a blanket indictment of the organization as a whole, from Pohlad to Ryan to Smith, and would encompass much of what you’re talking about.
In other words, it was the Twins themselves who largely created conditions (1), (2) and (3) that you just outlined, in which case I have a hard time cutting them slack for a possible “yes” answer to (4).
Jan 30th, 2008
Josh L.
Gomez=Alou?!? That’s like the craziest thing I’ve heard. As a mets fan I watched Gomez in almost every at-bat he had last season. The only similarity I see between he and Alou is that they are both hackers - they swing at like every pitch. The difference is that Alou doesn’t miss by a foot on his hacks. Gomez showed nothing at the plate last year. I think he was hot for like 1 week where he might have hit an empty .290. To me, his upside is more like Jose Reyes - he’s fast as heck and can probably ignite the fans by stealing bases and turning doubles into triples. But his lousy approach will always make him one of those overrated low OBP guys. I’m happy to part with him for the games best pitcher.
The only guy I’m sad to see gone is Delois. He’s the only pitcher in our farm system that has high-end-of-the-rotation potential. But that’s all it is, POTENTIAL. He’s young and could blow his arm out at any moment.
Incidentally, as a Mets fan, I would have traded these same exact players straight up for Phil Hughes. Sometimes I’m unhappy with Minaya as our GM, but then I see how bad it could be. Just heard a rumor that Smith went back to the Yanks to ask for Kennedy and Melky and was told to get lost.
Also, provided Santana plays as expected, the Mets can probably expect to see an extra 20,000 in ticket sales on the nights he pitches, which, if we expect $50 of revenue for each of those seats (tickets/parking/food all very expensive here in NY) and he pitches 16 home games is an additional $16 million in the Mets pockets (not including post-season). Perhaps 20K is optimistic, but you get the point here … not a bad deal financially either once they get him signed.
Jan 31st, 2008
Josh
To me the 20,000 increase is overly aggresive…
Shea capacity is 55,601
Mets home avg last year 47,579
Though I guess that average from last year may be inflated from big series against good teams I would think the Mets as a good team in a huge market generally draw well (I don’t live in NY so I don’t know)…
Jan 31st, 2008
Josh
There is definately room for improvement though in ticket sales for the Mets… last year they sold 82.9% of tickets for home games (12th in baseball)… so Santana could have a big impact…
Jan 31st, 2008
Josh L.
I was just remembering from that first season Pedro was pitching, they were averaging in the 30K’s and would sell the place out when he pitched … 20K is too high, agreed.
Jan 31st, 2008
Josh
Josh L.
Trust me I know the feeling… I live in Seattle and our team has been pretty bad the last few years… but when King Felix pitches we are pretty much sold out… at least 10,000 extra seats full….
Jan 31st, 2008
Julian D.
As a Twins fan, I try to stay optimistic with what we’re getting in return. People are quick to say how we should have taken Ellsbury and the rest of what the Sox had to offer. From what I’ve read of Gomez, I’m happy with our haul in this deal. I think the overall nature of baseball tilts this trade in the Twins’ favor.
Jan 31st, 2008
Baseball Anti-Christ
The Twins wuz robbed. C’mon, Joe, there’s no such thing as a “good #4 starter”, it’s an oxymoron.
Jan 31st, 2008
El Guapo
As a Twins fan I’ll miss Johan every 5th day but I am really excited to see him get the chance to bat in the NL. I think he’ll take the Silver Slugger for the NL this year. The Mets got a complete player, not just the best lefthander of this generation.
Jan 31st, 2008
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