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	<title>Comments on: The Bill in Cleveland</title>
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	<description>Curiously Long Posts</description>
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		<title>By: Ron Burgundy</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6799</link>
		<dc:creator>Ron Burgundy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jan 2008 16:51:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6799</guid>
		<description>Great story.  Compelling, and rich.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Great story.  Compelling, and rich.</p>
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		<title>By: Dan S.</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6795</link>
		<dc:creator>Dan S.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jan 2008 16:25:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6795</guid>
		<description>Some Brady fans seem to have a hard time admitting that for one lonely distant season, Pennington outperformed him.  They rest their case on A) Brady led the league in TDs thrown, B) Brady&#039;s teammates really stunk (despite being reigning Super Bowl champs) and C) no one should trust objective standards like QB ratings.

None of this was my point, which I&#039;ve clearly stated, and seen misinterpreted, enough, and I doubt I can clear the hagiography around Brady that exists, but I took another look at the respective 2002 seasons of the two QBs.  I know more than my share of Pats fans, and none of them was predicted Hall of Fame for Brady as 2002 wore on.  By 2007 the 2002 truth has largely and somewhat understandably been forgotten.

(Incidentally, in the 2003 preseason, Pennington severely broke his wrist in a pre-season game against the Giants, ending the Jets Super Bowl chances.  In 2004, he had his first rotator cuff rupture in the 8th game of the season (the Jets were 6 and 1 at the time); in 2005 his second rupture occured in week 3.  In 2006 he came back again, the Jets went 10-6 and shockingly made the playoffs.  I&#039;m not comparing his career, or the shell of his old self he&#039;s become, but where objective football fans&#039; heads were at the close of 2002.)

Brady had a non-factor 2000, then a year with a Super Bowl trophy under his belt at the time, while Pennington was a non-factor for those same two seasons â€“ essentially a rookie.  Brady played and started all 16 games, compared to Pennington who started 12 games (played in 15).  Brady threw for 28 TD&#039;s, 27% more than Penningtonâ€™s 22.  He threw for 235 yards per game, 13% more than Pennington did on the season - but in the 13 games that Pennington played a role other than mop up in, he also threw for 235 yards per game â€“ a push.

Pennington threw for 7.8 yards per completion in 2002 compared to 6.3 for Brady, a 24% advantage.  (Someone above said all young QBs are kept under wraps.  Not so.)  Penningtonâ€™s QB rating was 104.2 compared to Bradyâ€™s 85.7, a 22% advantage.  Pennington threw for 3.7 TDâ€™s per interception compared to Bradyâ€™s 2.0, an 85% advantage. 

Penningtonâ€™s completion percentage was 68.9% compared to 62.1% for Brady, an 11% advantage.  He threw TD passes in 8.0% of his completions, and 5.5% of his attempts; Brady respectively threw TD passes in 7.5% of his completions, and 4.7% of his attempts, advantages for Chad of 7% and 17% respectively.

All of this is conclusive.  Pennington was a significantly better QB as a virtual rookie than Brady was as a virtual second year reigning Super Bowl MVP.

As a Jet fan, things were looking up, if ever so briefly.  Maybe we had a franchise-type QB, even daring to think â€“ the next Montana!  It seems like a long time ago.  Now Brady is odds on favorite to win his 3rd Super Bowl MVP.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Some Brady fans seem to have a hard time admitting that for one lonely distant season, Pennington outperformed him.  They rest their case on A) Brady led the league in TDs thrown, B) Brady&#8217;s teammates really stunk (despite being reigning Super Bowl champs) and C) no one should trust objective standards like QB ratings.</p>
<p>None of this was my point, which I&#8217;ve clearly stated, and seen misinterpreted, enough, and I doubt I can clear the hagiography around Brady that exists, but I took another look at the respective 2002 seasons of the two QBs.  I know more than my share of Pats fans, and none of them was predicted Hall of Fame for Brady as 2002 wore on.  By 2007 the 2002 truth has largely and somewhat understandably been forgotten.</p>
<p>(Incidentally, in the 2003 preseason, Pennington severely broke his wrist in a pre-season game against the Giants, ending the Jets Super Bowl chances.  In 2004, he had his first rotator cuff rupture in the 8th game of the season (the Jets were 6 and 1 at the time); in 2005 his second rupture occured in week 3.  In 2006 he came back again, the Jets went 10-6 and shockingly made the playoffs.  I&#8217;m not comparing his career, or the shell of his old self he&#8217;s become, but where objective football fans&#8217; heads were at the close of 2002.)</p>
<p>Brady had a non-factor 2000, then a year with a Super Bowl trophy under his belt at the time, while Pennington was a non-factor for those same two seasons â€“ essentially a rookie.  Brady played and started all 16 games, compared to Pennington who started 12 games (played in 15).  Brady threw for 28 TD&#8217;s, 27% more than Penningtonâ€™s 22.  He threw for 235 yards per game, 13% more than Pennington did on the season &#8211; but in the 13 games that Pennington played a role other than mop up in, he also threw for 235 yards per game â€“ a push.</p>
<p>Pennington threw for 7.8 yards per completion in 2002 compared to 6.3 for Brady, a 24% advantage.  (Someone above said all young QBs are kept under wraps.  Not so.)  Penningtonâ€™s QB rating was 104.2 compared to Bradyâ€™s 85.7, a 22% advantage.  Pennington threw for 3.7 TDâ€™s per interception compared to Bradyâ€™s 2.0, an 85% advantage. </p>
<p>Penningtonâ€™s completion percentage was 68.9% compared to 62.1% for Brady, an 11% advantage.  He threw TD passes in 8.0% of his completions, and 5.5% of his attempts; Brady respectively threw TD passes in 7.5% of his completions, and 4.7% of his attempts, advantages for Chad of 7% and 17% respectively.</p>
<p>All of this is conclusive.  Pennington was a significantly better QB as a virtual rookie than Brady was as a virtual second year reigning Super Bowl MVP.</p>
<p>As a Jet fan, things were looking up, if ever so briefly.  Maybe we had a franchise-type QB, even daring to think â€“ the next Montana!  It seems like a long time ago.  Now Brady is odds on favorite to win his 3rd Super Bowl MVP.</p>
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		<title>By: Guelphdad</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6771</link>
		<dc:creator>Guelphdad</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jan 2008 13:16:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6771</guid>
		<description>Pats 41 Giants 10. Picked that number out of the air, but SBs are almost always blowouts and I favour NE in this one.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pats 41 Giants 10. Picked that number out of the air, but SBs are almost always blowouts and I favour NE in this one.</p>
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		<title>By: Jeff P.</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6747</link>
		<dc:creator>Jeff P.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jan 2008 03:53:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6747</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m gonna go ahead and make a SB prediction:

Giants 28 Pats 27</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m gonna go ahead and make a SB prediction:</p>
<p>Giants 28 Pats 27</p>
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		<title>By: Eric J</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6739</link>
		<dc:creator>Eric J</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jan 2008 02:20:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6739</guid>
		<description>In 2002, Tom Brady averaged 6.9 yards per attempt.  Chad Pennington averaged 7.8.  Also, Pennington led the NFL in touchdowns per attempt that year.  Obviously Brady has been better almost every other year, but it&#039;s hard to argue against Pennington having performed better in 2002, at least apart from supporting cast.  Brady only had better counting stats because Pennington had 2/3 as many attempts (399 vs. 601).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In 2002, Tom Brady averaged 6.9 yards per attempt.  Chad Pennington averaged 7.8.  Also, Pennington led the NFL in touchdowns per attempt that year.  Obviously Brady has been better almost every other year, but it&#8217;s hard to argue against Pennington having performed better in 2002, at least apart from supporting cast.  Brady only had better counting stats because Pennington had 2/3 as many attempts (399 vs. 601).</p>
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		<title>By: Justyo</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6733</link>
		<dc:creator>Justyo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jan 2008 23:35:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6733</guid>
		<description>But tell us Chuck, how do you really feel?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>But tell us Chuck, how do you really feel?</p>
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		<title>By: Greg</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6731</link>
		<dc:creator>Greg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jan 2008 22:02:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6731</guid>
		<description>Dwight is right, my memory must be fading if I&#039;m forgetting the 2002 AFC Championship already. The second half was also fairly forgettable offensively, and Bledsoe&#039;s first half TD drive was the only offensive TD of the day (to go along with punt and FG block returns for TDs). Bledsoe coming in to lead the TD drive was a great memory for me, however.

As I recall, there was some serious discussion leading up to the Super Bowl of whether Bledsoe should start even if Brady could play. Kind of seems ridiculous in hindsight.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dwight is right, my memory must be fading if I&#8217;m forgetting the 2002 AFC Championship already. The second half was also fairly forgettable offensively, and Bledsoe&#8217;s first half TD drive was the only offensive TD of the day (to go along with punt and FG block returns for TDs). Bledsoe coming in to lead the TD drive was a great memory for me, however.</p>
<p>As I recall, there was some serious discussion leading up to the Super Bowl of whether Bledsoe should start even if Brady could play. Kind of seems ridiculous in hindsight.</p>
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		<title>By: Mauichuck</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6730</link>
		<dc:creator>Mauichuck</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jan 2008 21:15:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6730</guid>
		<description>It&#039;s simple: Bill Belichick is an asshole.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s simple: Bill Belichick is an asshole.</p>
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		<title>By: Dwight K. Schrute</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6728</link>
		<dc:creator>Dwight K. Schrute</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jan 2008 20:43:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6728</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;&quot;Must set the record straight on the Bledsoe playoff outing in 2002. Brady went down late in the second quarter after a sack and Bledsoe led the team for a TD just before the half. It was a great moment, but Brady came right back out for the second half and never lost the job after that.&quot;&lt;/i&gt;

Greg, Tom Brady was injured in the first half of the AFC Championship in Pittsburgh and did NOT come back for the second half.  Bledose finished the entire game.

My thoughts:

~ As stated in Charlie Pierce&#039;s book &quot;Moving the Chains&quot; on Tom Brady, the Patriots were looking to draft a BACKUP QB in the second day of the 2000 draft.  The brass was torn between Tim Rattay and Tom Brady, and Dick Rehbein, the late QB coach for New England, loved Brady.  The Pats chose Brady and kept him as their fourth-string QB in 2000 (instead of putting him on the practice squad where he was free to sign with another team).  Not many teams keep four QBs - the Patriots only kept two in 2006.

~ Brady worked his way up to the #2 QB, beating out Damon Huard in 2001.

~ For Dan S. to say that the Patriots made Brady a dink-and-dunk passer to start his career is correct but it&#039;s also &quot;master of the obvious.&quot;  How many rookie QBs do you see slinging 35 passes a game in their first season?  Did you see JaMarcus Russell this year?  Peyton Manning may have thrown a lot as a rookie QB but the Colts were 3-13.  Belichick used Brady&#039;s strengths in creating each game plan.

For everyone that thinks that Tom Brady being the 199th selection in the 2000 draft was sheer brilliance by the Patriots, know this:  Scott Pioli keeps a picture frame on his desk with two football cards.  One is Tom Brady.  The other is Dave Stachelski, a 5th-round pick (one round ahead of Brady) from 2000.  Stachelski was a tight end that never saw the field for the Patriots.  Pioli keeps this on his desk to remind himself, if he was so brilliant in drafting Brady, how come he drafted Dave Stachelski ahead of him?

So yes, in the beginning, the Patriots were very lucky in drafting Brady (and have admitted as much).  But Brady himself worked his way up the depth chart, became better each offseason and was impressing the coaching staff and front office far before Bledsoe got destroyed by Mo Lewis on the sidelines.  Any book on the recent history of the Patriots indicates that Belichick was considering making a move to bench Bledsoe and bring in Brady at some point in the year.  Mo Lewis just forced his hand.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>&#8220;Must set the record straight on the Bledsoe playoff outing in 2002. Brady went down late in the second quarter after a sack and Bledsoe led the team for a TD just before the half. It was a great moment, but Brady came right back out for the second half and never lost the job after that.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>Greg, Tom Brady was injured in the first half of the AFC Championship in Pittsburgh and did NOT come back for the second half.  Bledose finished the entire game.</p>
<p>My thoughts:</p>
<p>~ As stated in Charlie Pierce&#8217;s book &#8220;Moving the Chains&#8221; on Tom Brady, the Patriots were looking to draft a BACKUP QB in the second day of the 2000 draft.  The brass was torn between Tim Rattay and Tom Brady, and Dick Rehbein, the late QB coach for New England, loved Brady.  The Pats chose Brady and kept him as their fourth-string QB in 2000 (instead of putting him on the practice squad where he was free to sign with another team).  Not many teams keep four QBs &#8211; the Patriots only kept two in 2006.</p>
<p>~ Brady worked his way up to the #2 QB, beating out Damon Huard in 2001.</p>
<p>~ For Dan S. to say that the Patriots made Brady a dink-and-dunk passer to start his career is correct but it&#8217;s also &#8220;master of the obvious.&#8221;  How many rookie QBs do you see slinging 35 passes a game in their first season?  Did you see JaMarcus Russell this year?  Peyton Manning may have thrown a lot as a rookie QB but the Colts were 3-13.  Belichick used Brady&#8217;s strengths in creating each game plan.</p>
<p>For everyone that thinks that Tom Brady being the 199th selection in the 2000 draft was sheer brilliance by the Patriots, know this:  Scott Pioli keeps a picture frame on his desk with two football cards.  One is Tom Brady.  The other is Dave Stachelski, a 5th-round pick (one round ahead of Brady) from 2000.  Stachelski was a tight end that never saw the field for the Patriots.  Pioli keeps this on his desk to remind himself, if he was so brilliant in drafting Brady, how come he drafted Dave Stachelski ahead of him?</p>
<p>So yes, in the beginning, the Patriots were very lucky in drafting Brady (and have admitted as much).  But Brady himself worked his way up the depth chart, became better each offseason and was impressing the coaching staff and front office far before Bledsoe got destroyed by Mo Lewis on the sidelines.  Any book on the recent history of the Patriots indicates that Belichick was considering making a move to bench Bledsoe and bring in Brady at some point in the year.  Mo Lewis just forced his hand.</p>
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		<title>By: Brian Gunn</title>
		<link>http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6726</link>
		<dc:creator>Brian Gunn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jan 2008 20:08:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/01/28/the-bill-in-cleveland/#comment-6726</guid>
		<description>I think it&#039;s pretty clear that both sides in this debate (basically Dan S. vs. everyone) agree much more than they disagree.  That is to say, no one disputes that Brady throws a better deep ball now than he did in &#039;02, or that the timing of Brady&#039;s ascension to the starting QB position was partly due to luck, or that Belichick deserves major props for recognizing Brady&#039;s talent and risking public backlash by benching Bledsoe.  The only dispute here involves how much you weigh each of these points in relation to each other.  Yes, it&#039;s hair-splitting -- &quot;meaningless,&quot; as AK says -- but it&#039;s a fun discussion nonetheless, and I&#039;d like to thank Dan S. for remaining level-headed and above-board.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think it&#8217;s pretty clear that both sides in this debate (basically Dan S. vs. everyone) agree much more than they disagree.  That is to say, no one disputes that Brady throws a better deep ball now than he did in &#8216;02, or that the timing of Brady&#8217;s ascension to the starting QB position was partly due to luck, or that Belichick deserves major props for recognizing Brady&#8217;s talent and risking public backlash by benching Bledsoe.  The only dispute here involves how much you weigh each of these points in relation to each other.  Yes, it&#8217;s hair-splitting &#8212; &#8220;meaningless,&#8221; as AK says &#8212; but it&#8217;s a fun discussion nonetheless, and I&#8217;d like to thank Dan S. for remaining level-headed and above-board.</p>
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