Third parts almost always suck. Godfather III sucked so bad that my friends have made solemn pact to insist — even under torture — that it never happened. I was quite sure that third Star Wars movie sucked until I saw the prequels, which sucked more. The third Back to the Future sucked, as did all of the ill-conceived trifectas involving Jaws, Jason, Elm Street, Bruce Willis, death, Indiana Jones, Keanu Reaves and Hannibal Lecter.
I heard that the third Lord of the Rings was the best of the bunch, but I can’t speak to that because it remains the only Oscar Winning movie since World War II that I have not seen. I want to be clear that this is not in any way a judgment on the Lord of the Rings — they’re just not my thing. I tried watching the first one, and 48 seconds into it I turned to Margo and said, “OK, I’m already lost.” There are certain things in this life — certain respected writers, certain brilliant movies, certain fabulous bands — that I just don’t get. I blame myself.
Anyway, third parts — with the notable exception of Rocky III — tend to be worthless, so you can only imagine how bad this ROB, Part III blog post is going to be. But I have no choice. The good people at Baseball Prospectus — thank you to Will Carroll and William Burke — have sent me a complete set of career runner-on-base numbers for every player (more or less) since 1959. Man, I love stuff like this. So, of course, I have to pass the savings on to you, the reader.
BRILLIANT READERS UPDATE: Speaking of you, the reader, I was talking with Royals pitcher Brian Bannister today — he said, “You won’t BELIEVE how many people came up to me asking me to tell them what stats I’ve invented.” You blog readers are crazy, my friends, and I say that with affection. … Also, you should know that one devoted reader is putting together a kooky/nutty Pozcars Web site where everyone can vote. More details to come along with the much anticipated Mom/Wife Pozcars vote … And it’s worth stopping here to say that this blog is just so much bigger than it was every supposed to become, and I thank you for that (I guess). Now all you have to do is BUY THE BOOK.
OK, so here’s what we’ve got career raw numbers: The greatest JoeBI man since 1959 is … well, the greatest RBI man. That’s Hank Aaron. Using the plus/minus system — averaging out every player since 1959 with more than 2,500 career at-bats — Aaron was +218 RBIs. No one was even close, and this does not even include Hank’s first five seasons.
Here is your Top 10:
1. Hank Aaron, +218
2. Juan Gonzalez, +179
3. Manny Ramirez, +173
4. George Brett, +171
5. Eddie Murray, +169
6. Alex Rodriguez, +168
7. Dante Bichette, +165
8. Frank Thomas, +163
9. Harold Baines, +161
10. Vlad Guerrero, +158
Not a bad list. No, it’s isn’t great to see Dante Bichette on the list, but hey, that’s a lot of pre-humidor Coors, and the guy really did drive in some serious RBIs. Juan Gonzalez is way up there — did you see that he wants to take someone else’s money, I mean, play again? It’s hard to have much respect for the guy after his pathetic stint in Kansas City — my favorite Gonzo story happened when the Royals went to Texas, and the Rangers pitchers made it quite clear that they ended to plunk him. More than once. Really hard. At the last moment, Gonzalez came down with stomach flu or something which lasted, surprisingly, three days. Those 72 hour bugs are the worst. There’s a reason they call him Juan Gone. But, that said, the guy in his prime could drive in runs.
Now, what about Jim Rice — since he was the whole point of this experiment? He’s a +116, a respectable 36th — right between Miguel Tejada and Jeff Kent. His notable contemporaries (and a couple of blog faves):
George Brett, +171
Eddie Murray, +169
Harold Baines, +161
Willie Stargell, +153
Al Oliver, +152
Dave Parker, +152
Albert Belle, +145
Cecil Cooper, +143
Yaz, +126
Jim Rice, +116
Ted Simmons, +114
Don Mattingly, +112
Rusty Staub, +106
Hal McRae, +105
Dave Winfield, +94
Boog Powell, +89
Steve Garvey, +85
Dick Allen, +80
Tony Perez, +76
Andre Dawson, +30
Dale Murphy, +3
Mike Schmidt, 0
Remember, again, that this stat only tries to give us a slightly more compelling RBI — nothing more than that.
* * *
The worst RBI man in the post Ike era? He’s in the Hall of Fame. The bottom 10 includes some excellent players, including the best leadoff hitter of all time … they just weren’t much at driving in runs.
10. Bill Russell, -136
9. Willie Randolph, -137
8. Brad Ausmus, -138
7. Bud Harrelson, -139
6. Brett Butler, -142
5. Ted Sizemore, -147
4. Rickey Henderson, -160
3. Mark Belanger, -182
2. Larry Bowa, -207
1. Ozzie Smith, -217
You will note Duane Kuiper was a more than respectable -51, and was better than average at getting in the runner from third base. Some of my favorite players:
Mark Grace, +113
Will Clark, +102
Mike Sweeney, +96
Carlos Beltran, +93
Rico Carty, +92
Tony Oliva, +87
Joe Carter, +50
Ron Santo, +46
Carlos Baerga, +34
Greg Luzinski, +34
Darryl Strawberry, +30
Bill Madlock, +18
Lou Whitaker, -14
Buddy Bell, -18
Alan Trammell, -43
Duane Kuiper, -51
Jimmy Wynn, -75
Frank White, -76
Rick Manning, -128
* * *
Reader Request I: Albert Belle vs. Mo Vaughn in 1995.
Here’s that controversial MVP vote again. Albert had that absurd 50 homer, 50 double, 177 OPS+ season. Vaughn had a not-nearly-as-good 39 homer, 28 double, 144 OPS+ season. Albert was better than Vaughn in pretty much every single offensive category (better average, OBP, SLG, etc.). But Mo had a big September in a pennant race (Albert had a much bigger September — but the Indians had already more or less wrapped things up), and Mo wasn’t viewed as a bad guy, and they both had 126 RBIs. So Mo won the MVP.
Who had more JoeBIs? You asked … the answer is Mo Vaughn. By a lot.
Mo Vaughn: +22
Albert Belle: +12
For the record, this in no way excuses this horrendous MVP choice. But one thing that JoeBIs might help explain (maybe) is that gut feeling baseball fans/writers sometimes get about a player who seems to “always come through with runners on base.” That, as I recall, was the feeling about Vaughn. Perhaps this is a good perception stat.
* * * *
Reader Request II: Adam Dunn vs. Ken Griffey Jr.
Speaking of perceptions:
Adam Dunn
2002: -14
2004: -11
2005: -5
2006: -9
2007: +3
Ken Griffey Jr.
2000: +17
2005: +8
2007: +2
Now, we’re only counting those years where they got 500-plus plate appearances. It’s easy to see why Dunn might drive some people crazy. Managers, many fans, many writers and other commentators HATE when a guy leaves runners on base. People may say that in the 1970s, sluggers were not supposed to walk with runners on base … but the truth is that perception is very strong today too. Adam Dunn is -47 for his career and well on pace to finish among the worst ever JoeBI guys. It could be why he drives some people nuts.
Griffey Jr., meanwhile, is a +153 JoeBi guy, one of the best ever.
* * *
Reader Request III: John Buck last year (18 homers, 48 RBIs).
This is a special request — Buck did not have 500 PAs so I had to figure this one up special. But since two people asked … you know that we’re here to serve.
Bucky scored a -8, which is pretty bad in only 399 plate appearances. He was especially bad at getting the runner home from third. But, as you know, it was an odd year for John since he kept getting benched for Jason LaRue, who at some point moved into my Top 5 in “Hitters who have absolutely NO chance to get a hit list.”
* * *
In defense of Brook Jacoby’s beautiful 1987 season … it WAS historic at the time. Up to that point, he was the only player in baseball history to hit more than 30 home runs and drive in fewer than 70 RBIs. Felix Mantilla, in a sort of utility role with the 1964 Red Sox, rather abruptly hit 30 homers and drove in 64 runs, but he only got 425 ABs that year.
Interestingly enough, in the years since Jacoby did it, it has become more common. Rob Deer hit 32 homers with 64 RBIs in 1992 (only 448 PAs, though). Brad Wilkerson deserves due credit for his 32 homer, 67 RBI season in 2004, a delightful -15 JoeBI season that included a remarkable inability to drive in runners from third (he only drove in runners from third 24.% of the time, one of the lowest numbers ever. In 30 plate appearances with runners on first and third or runners on second and third, he got precisely one hit and one sac fly. A few ducks left on that pond.
And there as Chris Young’s season last year — 32 homers, 68 RBIs, an a -9 JoeBI. He really didn’t have that many RBI chances as a leadoff hitter in the NL.?
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22 Comments, Comment or Ping
Jeff P.
I thought Mike Schmidt’s JoeBi would be higher. I’m guessing the low batting average and high BB’s were the reason.
Jan 19th, 2008
Walter
And that is why we all will continue to come back! Thanks for giving us Buck’s JoeBI.
Jan 19th, 2008
Sky
Joe, could you please appease the masses with a modified JoeBI stat that removes walks? I understand your perspective that driving in runs and taking walks can be treated by separate metrics, but I think it would be interesting to see the numbers the other way, too. Thanks.
Jan 19th, 2008
wally
Joe, after being critical of leaving walks in the equation, I like this RBI+ stat now. It tells you something unique about the player, in the way that no other stat really does this. You’d think, at least on first impression, that SLG% would do something similar, but it doesn’t (see Adam Dunn). Its more about high BA, not walking w/ men on (or guys where their OBP is close to their BA), and slugging.
Obviously, guys like Henderson and Schmidt were great players, but since so much of there value came from the walk they were not particularly great at driving runs in themselves. That however, does not mean that they did not create a great deal of runs for their teams. So while I worry about how some people might interpret this stat, it is light years better than just plain old RBI. Maybe in 10, 20, 30 years we’ll be using this instead of RBI.
Lastly, and I’ve thought this kind of thing for years, this would be a great stat to design a line up around. I know that its commen to put a fast high OBP guy in the lead off spot, but too frequently coaches put their best hitter (ie. an Adam Dunn) 4th because he slugs so much. I have believed for years this was a mistake. Guys that have low BAs but high OBPs should be hitting 2nd. Where guys with low OBPs and high SLGs (who seems to also be high RBI+ guys) should be hitting further down in the order (3-5) to drive these guys in. Bonds of 2002-2004 was another good case of a guy that should have been hitting 2nd instead of 4th. Anyway that’s enough thinking out loud for me.
Jan 19th, 2008
Paul White
Joe, I presume you’re excluding the Bond series from your list of films that had a crappy third installments, because Goldfinger was pretty good.
Regarding the JoeBI, I see Cecil Cooper listed that highly and sadly shake my head at the memory of the trade that sent him to Milwaukee for nothing but two brief return engagements from George Scott and Bernie Carbo. Wow, that was a bad trade.
Jan 19th, 2008
Jacob
I’m sorry, Joe, but I have to disagree about “Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade.” I think it’s significantly better than “Temple of Doom.”
Jan 19th, 2008
Chipmaker
You cannot compare Belle and Vaughn in 1995 without also including Edgar Martinez.
Jan 19th, 2008
Jeff P.
The Last Crusade IMO was the best Indy movie. I also think Star Wars episode III was second best in the series, only episode V was better. (Luke, I am your father).
Jan 19th, 2008
Rob
Seeing Henderson and also Ozzie (one of my alltime favorite players) on the bottom list makes me wonder, is there a way to construct the same stat as a function of runs rather than rbis? A number that measures in a single statistic how good a guy is at scoring when on base? (maybe this already exists, but the symmetrical connection between runs and rbis makes me think a similar symmetry for JoeBI would be nice.
Jan 19th, 2008
Mike
Interesting that Rice shows up right next to Tejada. What do we think about Tejada’s candidacy as of right now? What about 3-5 years of decent production (20+ HR, .290+ BA) and let’s say average-to-slightly-below-average-3B?
BTTF 3 didn’t suck, it was just a disappointment. And really, if it wasn’t for Doc Brown’s “Hos before bros” mantra in that flick, it would have been pretty solid.
If you want some real debate on the merits of the third installment in a series, bring up Terminator 3. TONS of contrasting opinions there.
Jan 19th, 2008
Sig
Joe:
Speaking of the Godfather III, just when I thought you were out of it (all this numbers stuff), you got sucked back in!
Speaking of Laura Petrie (we really aren’t but I can’t find the Laura Petrie post among all the numbers) let me suggest the following poll:
Whom would you rather spend a “quality” night with, Laura Petrie or Mary Richards?
Jan 19th, 2008
Minda
Give yourself some credit, Joe. This wasn’t a horrible third installment at all! How do you ever have time to do this kind of stuff around everything else?
After seeing you list Mike Sweeney’s JoeBI numbers, I wonder…what percentage of Royals fans have long since forgotten that he was very, very awesome? I’m guessing (somewhat scientifically, based on data gathered from comments and message boards all over the Internets) it’s about 98.4%.
Jan 19th, 2008
Brian
Wally :
“Guys that have low BAs but high OBPs should be hitting 2nd.”
This idea was explored in “Mind Game” by the Baseball Prospectus guys to explain why Mark Bellhorn made a great, though unconventional, #2 hitter for the ‘04 Sox. You’re in good company.
Jan 19th, 2008
John in Boston
Joe,
Do you think that Felix Mantilla was the Original Steroid Man? Thirty homers in less than 500 AB’s. He had 35 homers before that year, and 34 after it. Hmmm.
Jan 19th, 2008
Sky
Joe, do you find yourself being treated differently by your colleagues now that you have a blog and are playing around with stats? Do other beat writers you interact with now assume you’re living in your parents’ basement? Or do you think you’re helping traditionalists see that it’s ok to crunch numbers. Or (yes, a second “or”) is there no change because traditionalists haven’t figured out that you have a blog on the mythical internet?
Jan 19th, 2008
Paulson
The third Indiana Jones isn’t a bad movie in my opinion. Temple of Doom is much worse.
Jan 20th, 2008
joeficarra
Joe, I’ve got a request with your new numbers - for the years when Rice and Evans made up the corner OF’s in Boston, how did they compare, and how did they compare over their careers (I didn’t see his name listed, but might have just missed it)? I’ve seen some compelling arguments that Dewey was at least comparable, if not actually better, than Rice, and he was promptly ignored on HOF ballots. Does your new stat add any ammo to that argument, or does it back up the “perceptive” one? Just curious…
Joe
Jan 20th, 2008
Old Man Duggan
Sweeney really could drive them in. I’d love when he’d come into Minnesota and tear the Twins apart for three straight days. I wish he’d never gotten that bum rap in KC.
Jan 20th, 2008
Jon Morse
Couple of notes:
Regarding your comments in ROB II on walks — you also slightly decrease your team’s chance of scoring one run if you walk with first base open, a runner on second, and two outs… so not only does a walk not drive in a run, it can sometimes truly be a negative thing. (Admittedly, when this situation happens it’s almost always an IBB, but still.)
Leadoff hitters: It occurs to me that guys like Rickey Henderson lose, oh, about 160 chances to bat with runners on base over and above those lost by the rest of the lineup via the not-entirely-random pattern of who leads off innings 2-8/9. Therefore, since you’re calculating this against chances, a high negative JoeBI may actually be even MORE of a negative assessment for them than for a cleanup hitter, as they have fewer opportunities to accumulate RBI “failures”.
Jan 20th, 2008
Paul White
“I’ve seen some compelling arguments that Dewey was at least comparable, if not actually better, than Rice, and he was promptly ignored on HOF ballots.”
All-around, Dewey was better than Rice. One of the all-time great HOF whiffs was to drop him off the ballor after just three years. Even if he didn’t get elected, he deserved a lot more consideration than he got.
Jan 20th, 2008
Ryan
I don’t see how LOTR III won best picture. Is that what happened? I don’t see how a three hour movie with a 90 minute battle scene between CGI characters could win anything but most boring film event ever.
Jan 20th, 2008
Mike Bagnall
They missed a great sequel marketing possibility when they killed off all the key characters in Destry Rides Again at the end of the first (only) flick. My alltime favorite cinema and I never got an opportunity to buy a ticket for a rehash.
“I used to know a fella who was an opry singer, but he went into the cement business and one day he fell into the cement. Now he’s the cornerstone of the post office in St. Louis, Missouri.” Best alltime cinema quote. Brian Donleavy deserved an Oscar, but he was ignored by the voters.
Jan 20th, 2008
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