Brilliant Reader Dan Gould has thrown out a challenge … and you know how we LOVE challenges.
Ursus makes a good point about the hitters behind Rice. Naturally IBBs are going to be less frequent when there are few Punch & Judy hitters in a lineup. As for the made-up stat, I am wondering where Rice’s contemporaries fall, since none of them are in the top 25. Where’s Reggie? Where’s Brett or Darrell Evans or for that matter, Dewey?
Whatever happens on Tuesday, I’ll always believe that Rice is worthy because of his domination of the (relatively speaking, low-run environment) era that he played. And I’m still waiting to see if anyone can find an equivalent 12 year period of offensive dominance by a player not in the HoF. I’ll eat my hat if there is, and post the video on youtube.
First of all, using the Fake Fear Factor stat — which, remember, only measures, homers per game, RBIs per game and intentional walks per game and are NOT adjusted for ballpark — I told you that Rice really doesn’t come out well. I mean he REALLY doesn’t come out well. I’m willing to chalk that up to the stat, but since you asked … here are Rice’s contemporaries and semi-contemps:
Fear Factors
– Dale Murphy, 68.79.
– Eddie Murray, 57.86
– Reggie Jackson, 57.71
– John Mayberry, 56.95
– Jack Clark, 55.05
– Albert Belle (not a contemp, but though you might be curious): 54.55
– Pedro Guerrero, 53.78
– Johnny Bench, 53.08
– George Brett, 50.44
– Rick Monday, 50.26
– Reggie Smith, 49.94
– Darrell Evans, 48.26
– Joe Pepitone, 47.62
– Ron Cey, 46.98
– Dave Parker, 46.96
– Ben Oglivie, 46.84
– Harold Baines, 46.76
– Don Mattingly, 46.17
– George Foster, 45.18
– Andre Dawson, 44.96
– Dave Winfield, 44.06
– Greg Luzinski, 42.60
– Carl Yastrzemski, 42.24
– Ken Singleton, 41.68
– Ted Simmons, 41.00
– Dave Kingman 40.65
– Darrell Porter, 40.62
– Jimmy Wynn, 39.62
– Bobby Bonds, 39.45
– Jason Thompson, 39.39
– Willie Horton, 39.27
– Rusty Staub, 39.08
– Bill Madlock, 38.10
– Andre Thornton (yes!), 37.39
– Tony Perez, 37.19
– Gary Carter, 36.65
– Bob Horner, 36.50
– Bobby Murcer, 36.47
– Carlton Fisk, 35.64
– Oscar Gamble, 35.26
– Lee May, 35.07
– Dan Driessen, 34.75
– Gene Tenace, 33.37
– Willie Montanez, 32.82
– Larry Parrish, 32.34
– George Scott, 32.33
– Fred Lynn, 32.31
– Rico Petrocelli, 32.01
– Don Baylor, 31.55
– Jeff Burroughs, 31.42
– Graig Nettles, 31.00
– Steve Garvey, 30.23
– Bob Watson, 29.89
– Gorman Thomas, 29.35
– Jim Rice, 29.11
– Dwight Evans, 19.21
I am more than willing to say that this proves, without a doubt, the math faultiness of this stat — I don’t really believe Willie Montanez was a scarier hitter than Jim Rice — and this is why I didn’t list all that in the original post. Still, you asked: The pure numbers rank Rice as, at best, the 54th-most feared hitter of his era.
As for the idea that Rice had better hitters behind him than others … I don’t have time to REALLY study it, but after just a cursory look I find that idea pretty suspect. In 1978, Rice’s monster year, he was intentionally walked just seven times, despite having an ancient Carl Yaz hitting behind him most of the year. Yaz, at 38 and not nearly the player of old, was intentionally walked 8 times. The next year, Rice was still in his prime, and he was intentionally passed just FOUR times even though Yaz was even more ancient.
Four times. How few is that? The next year, Fred Lynn was walked four times so managers could FACE Jim Rice. Certainly this was to avoid the righty-lefty matchup or whatever, but it seems unimaginable that managers and pitchers who were so scared of Rice would have walked Fred Lynn to get to him.
In 1986 — sort of the last good year of Jim Rice — managers walked Bill Buckner seven times to face Rice.
None of this seems to speak of great fear.
As for getting Dan to eat his hat by finding a non-Hall of Famer who “dominated” the way Rice did for 12 years … first off it’s a bit of a flawed question. Why are we looking at a TWELVE year period? Why not a 10-year period? Or a 15-year period? Or an 11-year period? It is, of course, because Rice’s first good year was in 1975, his last good year in 1986, and that’s 12 seasons.
I doubt I can do this because it all depends on what you mean by dominance. I mean, are we looking for people who hit more homers over a 12-year period? There are a lot of those. More RBIs? Better slugging percentage? There are some of those. Or are we comparing those players to their league? We can try to look at it that way.
Rice (from 1975-86):
Homers (350), 3rd in baseball (behind Schmidt and Kingman)
RBIs (1276), 1st in baseball.
Runs (1194) 2nd in baseball (behind Schmidt)
Hits (2145) 1st in baseball
Times on base (2757) 4th in baseball.
Total bases (3670) 1st in baseball
Batting average (.304), 8th in baseball
OBP (..356), 55th in baseball
SLG (.520), 2nd in baseball (behind Schmidt)
OPS (.876) 7th in baseball
OPS+ (133) tied for 15th in baseball.
It’s pretty impressive, no doubt. Rice didn’t walk, which hurts some of his numbers. And his OPS+ — which I believe is about best way to measure his overall numbers against his time — was a not-so-hot 15th. But first in RBIs, hits and total bases, and second in runs and slugging is nothing to sneeze at.
Is there anyone with a stretch that’s comparable? Let’s see if we can find one.
Dick Allen (1964-74 — 11 years)
Homers (331), 6th in baseball (behind five Hall of Famers)
RBIs (1036), 3rd in baseball (behind two Hall of Famers)
Runs (1228), 1st in baseball (tied with Lou Brock)
Hits (1720), 13th in baseball.
Total bases (3165), 5th in baseball (behind three Hall of Famers and Pete Rose)
Times on base (2568), Tied for 10th in baseball
Batting Average (.295), 15th in baseball
On-base percentage (.381), tied for 9th in baseball.
SLG (.542), 2nd in baseball (behind Hank Aaron)
OPS (.923), 2nd in baseball (behind Willie McCovey)
OPS+ (160), 1st in baseball
That doesn’t quite work for our purposes here. That’s an 11-year stretch, not 12, and the only two categories that Allen actually led in are runs scored and OPS+. But make no mistake: Allen’s numbers are much better than Rice’s. He got on base at a much higher rate, he slugged better. From what I can gather, 18 Hall of Famers got at least 3,000 at-bats in Allen’s prime, and Allen had a better OPS+ than any of them. There is no question in my mind that Allen was a measurably better hitter in his 11-year period than Rice was in his 12-year period.
In fact, there’s a very simple way to do this sort of comparison. You already know that OPS+ measures a batters on-base percentage and slugging percentage against the league. I suspect that’s a pretty good representation of “dominance.” So the question is how many non-Hall of Famers are there who had, say, 6,000 plate appearances over a 12-year period and had an OPS+ better than Rice’s 133.
I’ll start in 1950:
Dick Allen (1964-75): 160
Frank Howard (1961-72): 147
Albert Belle (1988-99): 147
Jack Clark (1979-90): 144
Norm Cash (1969-1980): 142
Reggie Smith (1968-79): 140
Ken Singleton (1968-79): 139
Will Clark (1986-97): 138
Jose Canseco (1986-97): 136
Boog Powell (1961-72): 136
Rocky Colavito (1955-66): 135
Joe Torre (1960-71): 135
Tony Oliva (1963-74): 135
Fred Lynn (1975-86): 135 (worth nothing that these are the precise 12 years we’re talking about with Rice — he did not even have the best OPS+ among non-Hall of Famers on HIS OWN TEAM during that 12-year stretch).
Dwight Evans (1981-92): 135
Minnie Minoso (1950-61): 134
Jimmy Wynn (1964-75): 134
Rusty Staub (1965-76): 134
Well that’s 19, just since 1950. I did not include anyone who tied Rice’s OPS+ stretch (a list that included Greg Luzinski and George Foster), or Rickey Henderson, who will definitely go to the Hall of Fame, or Fred McGriff, who had a 145 OPS+ over his best 12-year period. I also did not include Bobby Grich, whose 129 OPS+ over a 12-year period is not quite as good as Rice’s, but he of course was a brilliant defensive middle infielder. Or a bunch of other guys who were clearly better all-around players.
I realize this probably won’t convince Dan or anyone else who loves Rice because you could easily just say, “Well, who cares about OPS+?” — same deal with Win Shares or Eqa or runs created or any other single stat. People who want to believe Rice was the most dominant hitter in baseball for 12 years will believe it, and that’s cool. That’s part of being a fan. In other words, I don’t know if we can get Dan to eat his hat.
I do know that you can have lots of fun with numbers.
For instance, what I told you there was a player who, over a 12-year period, led all of baseball in home runs and RBIs? I’m talking all of baseball. Even Rice did not do that. And what if I further told you this guy played center field for much of his career, he stole more than 200 bases (31 in his best season) and hit one of the three most famous home runs in baseball history. That guy would be a SURE Hall of Famer, wouldn’t he?
Joe Carter (1984-1995 — that’s 12 years for you)
Homers (327), 1st in baseball
RBIs (1172), 1st in baseball
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45 Comments, Comment or Ping
Sirk
Joe Carter was the most feared hitter of his generation. The only reason Carter didn’t get IBBed more is because Cory Snyder was waiting on deck.
Jan 6th, 2008
Clayton
All those guys were more feared than Willie Mays. The only reason Willie even got a base hit was because no one would throw him anything but changeups over the heart of the plate, because they were so a-skeert of Willie McCovey on deck. That’s why the only 33 writers in history with any insight didn’t vote for Mays for the Hall of Fame.
I know I’m flirting with something beyond heresy, but how meaningful can the Hall really be if 33 (33!) of the electors didn’t believe that Willie belonged? I mean, we’re not talking about one lone bearded Nietzschean misanthrope, or a guy with a hangover who checked the wrong box…33! Willie Mays!!
All you really need to know about voting is that in 1971 Led Zeppelin made the runes album, the Stones made Sticky Fingers, the Who came up with Who’s Next, Joni Mitchell did Blue, and the grammy goes to….Carole King!
Now no injustice can seem too great. I’m ready for this year’s abomination.
Jan 6th, 2008
s1c
Clayton,
Joni Mitchell - You are putting Joni Mitchell on the same level as Zep, Stones, and the Who? Tell me you are not serious (I beg you). As for the rest, right on!!!
Poz - Where was David Ortiz on your list? I know he has Manny hitting behind him, but you have to figure he must be there somewhere, but where?
Editor’s note: David Ortiz ranks 43rd all-time with an impressive 55.54 fear factor. He’s right between Raffy Palmeiro and Will Clark.
Jan 6th, 2008
Matt
I gotta tell you. I’m a huge Rice fan (possibly my favorite player ever), but you do make a pretty good case about why he does not belong in the hall.
Jan 6th, 2008
Old Man Duggan
I wish everyone read this. I just got into an argument about Jim Rice two nights ago. Waste of my time.
Jan 6th, 2008
gogiggs
Probably the most important thing I learned reading Bill James and the reason he is one of my personal heroes is this: The proper approach is not to start with a conclusion and then go casting about for arguments and evidence to fit that conclusion. The proper approach is to start with a question, gather all the evidence you can and then accept the conclusion to which that evidence points (with a degree of surety informed by the quality of the evidence).
When I read posts supporting the HoF candidacies of guys like Jack Morris and Jim Rice, I get a very strong sense of people starting with a conclusion.
Jan 7th, 2008
Dan
Well, let me say its honor to be both a Brilliant Reader (again!) and to single-handedly motivate an entire post on the best sports blog on the ‘Net. You’re making me feel even worse for not yet buying the book.
Since I did motivate the post (and made a binding commitment to eat my hat on youtube) we ought to be clear on what it is that will make me legally liable to complete my end of the bargain.
Rice’s candidacy is summed up thusly:
In the 12 seasons spanning 1975-86, Rice led the American League in games, at-bats, runs, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging, total bases, extra-base hits, multihit games, and outfield assists.
Find someone who is not a Hall of Famer who led his league in those categories over 12 seasons, and I will be asking if anyone has some grey pupon.
Editor’s note: You ARE a brilliant reader Dan. And I do not believe there is another player — Hall of Famer or non — who led his league in those exact categories over precisely a 12-year period. For instance, leading in at-bats isn’t an especially good thing. However, I do wish to point out that from 1957-1966 — that’s a 10-year period — my good man Rocky Colavito led the American League in games, homers, RBIs, total bases, extra-base hits, outfield assists, runs produced, and that was in a league with Mickey Mantle (who finished ahead of him in runs and slugging). That might not be enough to get you to eat your hat, but maybe you could at least nibble on the bill. Thanks for the kind words.
Jan 7th, 2008
Snowman
Clayton,
That’s more or less par for the course. There are dozens of guys you can point to like that, who were left off a seemingly inexplicable number of ballots. 37 voters left Walter Johnson off. 48 skipped on Cy Young. 50 failed to write down Glover Cleveland Alexander. 61 ignored the accomplishments of Cocky Collins. 38 didn’t feel Lefty Grove’s career warranted inclusion.
And so on, and on, and on.
Jan 7th, 2008
Harry
I think Dan should be eating Fred Lynn’s hat.
Jan 7th, 2008
Charlie
What are the three most famous home runs in baseball history?
Obviously Kirk Gibson has to be in there.
Joe nominates Carter’s.
#3: Bobby Thompson? Mazeroski? Pudge Fisk?
Any other contenders?
Jan 7th, 2008
Joaquin Hoff
Get real, Dan. You asked about “equivalent dominance.” Don’t turn around and demand an incredible amount of granularity now that it turns out the original bar isn’t nearly as high as you imagined. It’s like issuing a challenge to find a career rivaling the brilliance of Steve Finley’s, then realizing that there’ve been literally hundreds of those and pulling a 10,460-plate appearance, 2,548-hit, 449-double, 124-triple, 304-home run, 1,443-run, 1,167-RBI, 320-stolen base and 91-sacrifice bunt standard out of your ass as a completely transparent dodge.
Jan 7th, 2008
Chris Wexler
If the Joe Carter/Jim Rice comparison doesn’t give proof of the East Coast bias and Canadian blindness of the baseball world nothing does. Wow.
Both were great, but not historic players… Love it.
Thanks for that great nugget…
Jan 7th, 2008
Sirk
Charlie,
You are overlooking Duane Kuiper’s only career homer, which Poz has surely included as one of the Big Three.
Jan 7th, 2008
Clayton
“Joni Mitchell - You are putting Joni Mitchell on the same level as Zep, Stones, and the Who? Tell me you are not serious (I beg you). As for the rest, right on!!!”
I think Led Zeppelin belong in their own class, shoulders above every other musician since Beethoven. I now declare myself open and sympathetic to attacks from Hendrix loyalists.
I like Joni a lot, but not nearly as much as Zeppelin, Stones, Who… On the other hand, Joni is a female singer/songwriter who made an album about 7000 times as good as Carole King’s, and so I thought that she should be included in my comments lest someone miss my point and accuse me of male or loud bias.
Joni’s Blue, incidentally, has been listed by Slash as one of his ten all time favorite albums, a list that also included Cat Stevens’ Tea for the Tillerman.
Also, I don’t think that there’s much point in excusing-without penance-the failure of 33 writers to vote for Willie Mays for the Hall of Fame, just because 48 of their lot missed on Cy Young. I mean, these guys say things like a man with 4000 hits should be kept out of the Hall because maybe-once or twice in games they can’t identify-they question whether or not they approve of what his motivations might have been in making hypothetical pitching changes. Seems like missing the forest for a drop on a blade of grass to me, but I can’t even begin to think of a metaphor for someone with a brain in their head who can’t vote for Willie Mays.
Jan 7th, 2008
Frankie
Sorry Dan, but I think you have to eat you hat now. I am sick of hearing the “most feared” argument. If Rice had been the same player, but had played for the Twins or the A’s or the Rangers, he would have dropped off the ballot years ago.
Jan 7th, 2008
Snuckles
Not that it mitigates the underlying point, but for the record, it was 23 HoF voters who didn’t vote for Mays, not 33.
Jan 7th, 2008
Clayton
Thanks Snuckles, my bad. Ok, 23. Just over 5%. Out of every 20 experts entrusted with the noble deed, more than one of them (not much more, say one entire individual and an esophagus) DIDN’T THINK THAT WILLIE MAYS BELONGED IN THE HALL OF FAME. WILLIE MAYS. After five years to sit around contemplating it, to whatever extent they were able.
Four basketball lineups and a bench of esophagii!
How could anyone digest that? And then go on as if nothing happened, pontificating left and right like a bunch of…like a bunch of nudists seeking a GQ contract on Emperor’s New Clothes Day!
Jan 7th, 2008
Dan
Sorry, Joaquin Hoff, but anyone who read the earlier incarnation of Joe’s blog knows that I first formulated that challenge, in precisely those terms, there. I was simply reissuing the challenge here but without having the list at hand I referred to “equivalent dominance”.
Help me out here, Joe - I am sure you recall when I asked last year for someone to point out a player who led his league in so many categories over a twelve year period but was not in the HoF.
Jan 7th, 2008
Dan
And one more thing - forget the stats that aren’t so impressive. Deal with the biggies:
runs
hits
homers
RBIs
slugging
total bases
extra-base hits
multihit games
Go ahead and shorten the time frame to ten years. Find someone who led his league in all eight categories who’s not in the Hall. Like they used to say in the battery commercial, “I dare ya”.
Jan 7th, 2008
Sig
Joe:
I love ya….I really do. A friend turned me on to your blog and the first post I read was your valid rant about Chief Wahoo. I loved your Springsteen column. I don’t mind the long posts either. However, you just have to take a break from the numbers stuff. While I think numbers are important and that Bill James is great, I’m starting to get migraines about half way through your recent baseball numbers posts.
Take a break from it. Write about pro football. With the Super Bowl coming up soon may I suggest writing about our fellow Polish-American Hank Stram. He had a secret formula for predicting Super Bowls which was highly successful. Did the formula go with him to his grave? Maybe you can do some detective work and find the formula!
Looking forward to more great posts!
Jan 7th, 2008
Josh in DC
Pretty sure that Mays not going in unanimously shows how racist the voters were and little else. Putting ourselves back in 1979, what’s the argument a guy who hit 660 homers, a batting average over .300, and 12 Gold Gloves (the most ever)? That he didn’t hit well in the post season?That he struck out too often?
The ONLY reason to vote against Mays is that said voter is an out-and-out racist. Trying to draw any other inference is a fool’s errand.
(Cy Young’s case is rather different. The voters were asked to select players from the 19th Century and the 20th Century separately. It wasn’t clear when one was supposed to vote for Cy Young.)
Jan 7th, 2008
GWO
Damn right Joni, belongs on that list. Blue stands comparison with any of those records, and it’s not even Joni’s best. (I’ll grant you, Sticky Fingers isn’t the best Stones album either).
Interesting that Zep and the Who made their best records at the same time, and all their combined later albums would suffer from exactly the same flaw — chronic self-indulgence.
Jan 7th, 2008
John Northey
An interesting one is Albert Belle 1991-2000 for MLB
HR: #4, behind Griffey Jr, McGwire, Bonds
RBI: #1 over Frank Thomas
R: #10
Slg: #11
Total Bases: #1
Hits: #6
Switch to AL only…
HR: #1
RBI: #1
R: #5 (Frank Thomas, Knoblauch, Palmeiro, Alomar ahead - 93 back)
Slg: #6 (Griffey, Ramirez, McGwire, Thomas, Garciaparra 594 vs 571)
Total Bases: #1
H: #4 (Palmeiro, Alomar, Thomas - 46 back)
So, not quite #1 across the board but darn close and if he didn’t take 670 walks (#11 in AL) he might have won in H too.
Belle was worth considering for the HOF but is no longer on the ballot, just like Joe Carter. So two guys who had a lot of the same indicators as Rice but not quite the same ones.
FYI: in the majors Rice was, for those 12 years…
RBI: #1
HR: #3 (90 behind Schmidt, also behind Kingman)
R: #2 (96 behind Schmidt)
H: #1 (24 ahead of Garvey)
Slg: #2 (behind Schmidt, Mattingly had a 539 vs Rice’s 520)
Total Bases: #1
So Rice was very impressive for that stretch vs all comers but was lucky to have Mike Schmidt & Kingman play in the NL otherwise his ‘best in the AL for 12 years’ would be reduced in a major category. Also loses the Slg% if you use 2200 AB’s (or fewer) rather than whatever standard is used.
I see Rice as being a lot like Jack Morris. Someone who is impressive due not just to skill (I know I’d have loved to have both on the Jays back in the early to mid 80’s) but also to good timing. Morris wouldn’t have his ‘most wins in the 80’s’ if an assortment of pitchers were born a few years earlier or later. Rice wouldn’t have his HR title for those 12 years if Kingman or Schmidt were AL instead of NL guys.
Jan 7th, 2008
G Young
I’m going to posit that prior to the 1990’s, the IBB was not utilized by managers as a way to express concern the current batter might get a hit.
The IBB was used as a matter of strategy, either to create the aforementioned lefty/righty matchup or to put a man on an empty 1st base to create a force out situation.
There was the occasional “fear” walk, such as the attempted one Roy Hobbs refused to take and instead hit out of the park, but on the whole the IBB was a strategical choice.
It wasn’t until the steroid era that the IBB was widely used out of “fear.” Probably why the stat is so skewed to the modern era. Our current perception of the IBB is something totally different to the perception of the IBB prior to the 90’s.
Jan 7th, 2008
G Young
Oh, and that argument about Joni Mitchell, that’s just silly. Besides, it goes so much deeper than that.
We’re talking about Blue, for the love of blerg!
Jan 7th, 2008
Dan
The problems with Belle are multiple:
He played in a much higher offense era, with diluted pitching, smaller parks, etc., etc., not to mention the prevalence of PEDs;
“Character” is an element that voters are to consider - on that measure alone Belle failed in every way possible.
OK, not in the way that say, OJ Simpson fails, but I’d say that Belle had to last a lot longer and put up much bigger numbers to get over his other shortcomings.
(I realize this is a separate critique than the qualifications that I’ve asserted merit Rice’s induction - I just think that while on pure numbers over a significant period of time, Belle merits more consideration, but when you add in his behavior as an alleged human being, I have no problem with his being off the ballot)
Jan 7th, 2008
JGaryW
Regarding Mays not getting in unanimously ‘Babe Ruth didn’t get 100% of the vote, so Willie Mays shouldn’t either.’ was probably causal logic for some of those votes being withheld. It’s idiotic, but idiocy entering into the discussion shouldn’t be too shocking.
Jan 7th, 2008
Dan
BTW, I can’t let this go by:
*********************
Fred Lynn (1975-86): 135 (worth nothing that these are the precise 12 years we’re talking about with Rice — he did not even have the best OPS+ among non-Hall of Famers on HIS OWN TEAM during that 12-year stretch).
************************
Lynn spent six of those 12 years on the Angels and Orioles. 40 lashes with a wet noodle for you, sir!
Over the six seasons they were teammates, Rice’s OPS+ was 137.8 - Lynn’s was 138.5. So by the tiniest of margins, Lynn was ever so slightly better.
Jan 7th, 2008
Mauichuck
Dan - whoa there hoss. Albert may have been surely sure - but an “alledged human being” and his character “failed in every way possible”. That’s a little harsh don’t you think? And oh yeah, even the illustrious Jose Conseco mentioned Albert specifically as a guy who didn’t take steroids. And let me get this straight, you’re saying that Belle had some kinda advantage in playing at the Jake while simultaneously touting a guy that played half his games in Fenway. Is that right?
My boy Albert might have been less than cordial to sports writers in general and Hannah Storm in particular - a quality I find endearing by the way - but he wasn’t some kinda monster. And frankly I find the idea that one can compensate for sociopathy by hitting more home runs to be appalling.
Nope, Albert was a better baseball player than Rice and so was Rocky Colavito. They just had the misfortune to play in Cleveland - the oft ridiculed “Mistake by the Lake” - and not the epicenter of baseball excellence, Boston
Jan 7th, 2008
Brian
Dan never specified which hat he would eat. Would it be a plastic one like John Olerud used to wear? Maybe a cowboy hat? Would it be one of those early 1990’s hats that had rhinestones on it? Because that could get dangerous.
I’d take his challenge much more seriously if he would have specified. And if his hat is a sombrero, I might even get into the act and try to prove him wrong.
Jan 7th, 2008
Dan
Mauichuck,
You don’t think weaker pitching, PEDs (Canseco knows everything about steroid use????) and a great increase in offense has a bigger influence on the offensive production of Belle vs Rice than Fenway vs the Jake?
And if what he did to Hannah Storm “endearing”, then I don’t think you have any business criticizing my suggestion that a longer, more productive career might have overcome his anti-social behavior when it came to HoF balloting.
And last but not least, I think you downplay his anti-social behavior.
Jan 7th, 2008
Jeff P.
Rice was good, real good but not HOF worthy. Besides if he didnt do enough to get in before now what has changed? He hasnt hit anymore homeruns, he hasnt driven in anymore runs, and he hasnt hit into anymore double plays. And if Rice gets in then that opens the door for about three dozen other players who were good but not worthy.
Jan 7th, 2008
Jeff P.
And I guess everything I said about Rice applies to Gossage as well.
Jan 7th, 2008
James
Dan, all your complaints about Belle don’t really pan out because John Northey mentioned rankings, not pure numbers. So that he’s ranked highly in all those catagories in an offense heightened era is actually more impressive.
Jan 8th, 2008
Harry
Dan said
Lynn spent six of those 12 years on the Angels and Orioles.
————-
OK, so you get to choose one of three hats to eat.
Jan 8th, 2008
Dan
James,
yes, but I believe that Belle’s cumulative stats are similar to Rice’s. Playing in the same era as Belle with its weak pitching, I believe Rice might have ended with 450-475 homers.
Jan 8th, 2008
Josh
Dan,
If you neutralize the stats of Belle and Rice to a 750 run context (Baseball Reference) this is what you get
Rice: .305 Avg, .359 OB, .512 SLG - 405 HR 1548 RBI 8558 AB
Belle: .300 Avg, .375 OB, .574 SLG - 407 HR 1316 RBI - 6131 AB
It would seem even if you neautralize the stats to the same run scoring environment Belle would come out ahead….
Jan 8th, 2008
Josh
Also just to throw in another comparable from the past…
Dick Allen’s carrer with a 750 run context
.314 Avg, .403 OB, .573 SLG - 391 HR 1322 RBI , 6558 AB
Jan 8th, 2008
Jere
Fortunately I have a BS in math, so all the numbers used on this blog, don’t faze me…I just skim right over them…
but the one thing that IS jumping out to me over the past several days is the case for Richie Allen to be in the HoF…given the stats listed in today’s post and his dominance over his prime…perhaps if Gene wouldn’t have panicked during the last 10 days of ‘64 with his ’stupid’ rotation of Bunning & Short, Bunning & Short, Bunning & Short, Bunning & Short, Bunning Short and the Phillies would have hung on to win the pennant, folks wouldn’t have ‘turned on’ Richie and Richie wouldn’t have demanded to be called “Dick” … who knows what a world series ring might have done to his reputation…I’m thinking we need to start a campaign to get the Phillies their 2nd Richie in the HoF…
Jan 8th, 2008
asianorange
i would also like to know what kind of hat dan would be eating as well. i would like to cast a vote for a fedora. and in any case, this discussion is rather moot since everyone can agree (most likely) that rice will be elected. props to poz for all the stats work he did - thanks for the blog, it’s great stuff.
Jan 8th, 2008
Mauichuck
Dan, they sure are piling on you hard. Let me just remind you of Jim Rice’s career splits:
Home: .320/.374/.546 (.920)
Road: .277/.330/.459 (.789)
Gotta love playing in ol’ Fenway.
Jan 8th, 2008
Matt in Toledo
Dan
It doesn’t look like you’re willing to concede a hat-eating future, but if you eventually do I suggest you look to Homer Simpson for guidance on which type it should be:
“Nacho…nacho…hat…I want to eat…a nacho hat”
(sung to the tune of “Macho man”)
Jan 8th, 2008
Jon
I love this…I can’t wait for Baseball Fear Factor…Joe Rogan comes out and with 3 has-been pitchers from the 80s as contestants and the final challenge is pitching to Jim Rice. They all strike him out and then Dan can eat a hat made out of some sort of insect and cow brains.
Jan 8th, 2008
Dan
Jon and Matt, thanks for the laugh.
Jan 8th, 2008
splitter24
Well, when you say that Fred Lynn had a better OPS+ over the same 12-year run as Jim Rice, you’re not factoring in a huge issue.
Fred Lynn was a terrific player, my favorite 70’s Red Sox player. He was, sabermetrically speaking, as good or better than Jim Rice… when he was in the lineup. Prorating each players’ 1981 season out to a full 162 game season, Rice averaged 152 games over that 12 game stretch. Lynn, only 129. You can’t just average together OPS+ numbers when you’re dealing with seasons of incongruous plate appearances. Using the same logic, Larry Hisle has a better OPS+ run from 1978-1980 than Jim Rice.
Lynn’s 2 point advantage in absolute numerical average doesn’t outweigh Rice’s extra 23 games per season advantage.
And as an additional point of reference, two of Tony Oliva’s included “seasons” have 7 and 28 AB’s. Joe Torre posted an excellent 184 OPS+ in 1960… he went 1 for 2. There are numerous other players on the list who didn’t even have 12 seasons with 400 AB’s in their entire careers.
It’s a pretty misleading list when you give equal weighting to seasons of 230 AB’s and 2 AB’s to those of 600 AB’s.
Editor’s note: We’re not giving equal weight to those seasons. We’re looking at a 12-year span, with a minimum of 6000 plate appearances (500 per year). The OPS+ is over the entire stretch of time.
Jan 10th, 2008
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