Everyone here already knows where I stand on the Royals signing of Jose Guillen, so this will be relatively short. I don’t like the move, and it has little-to-nothing to do with Guillen’s supposed attitude problems (I have heard from insightful people that he’s a good guy who has been misunderstood). It has little-to-nothing to do with his steroid suspension (I’m definitely leaning more and more to the idea that the majority of players have been doing something illegal — steroids, HGH, amphetamines, something — to keep up). I’m not especially troubled that this is Guillen’s ninth team in 10 years or the $36 million price tag — this is the cost of business these days.
No. My deal is this: I don’t think Jose Guillen is especially good now, and I think he’s at the age where he’s about to get worse.
I’m very aware that many people — maybe even most people — disagree with me. It’s always hard for me to gauge, but I would say emails and comments are running about 60-40 against my view of the signing, maybe higher. Many think that Guillen is a legit right-handed power bat, and they appreciate that this is a relatively short commitment (three years) and they rightfully know that there really wasn’t anything else out there. I’m not saying that people are dancing in the street, but they see this realisitcally as a good move in the “Hey, the Royals had to do something” sort of way.
They also don’t buy that 32 is the age where players like Jose Guillen start to deflate — people never want to believe that (take a look at Jacque Jones for another 32-year-old example). They say he’s shown no sign of faltering, and that’s probably true. Of course, they never really do.
I’m actually happy to have people be more optimistic about a Royals’ move than I am — doesn’t happen often. I very much hope that they’re right, and I’m wrong and that Guillen has three exceptional years and proves to be the right-handed power bat that the Royals crave. It’s certainly possible. Dayton Moore is a lot smarter than I am. I’ll happily write that mea culpa.
BUT, I can’t leave one thing alone: A lot of people, including a couple of work friends and some brilliant readers here, are thinking that this Jose Guillen signing will mean that the Royals will (finally) be rid of Emil Brown. They seem to believe this is sort of an added bonus of this whole Guillen signing — the prize in the Cracker Jacks box. People in KC are generally very, very sick of Emil Brown. If Guillen is the prince of the story, Brown has become the dragon.
I have poked fun at Emil in the past because this is what I do, but it’s always been (I hope) good natured fun. I’m going to stop doing that entirely now because (1) I generally like the guy quite a bit and (2) He’s a whole lot better than people seem to realize.The trouble with Brown is that he has had this knack for doing elaborately and spectacularly goofy things, like dropping fly balls and kicking grounders and letting balls off the wall dance around him like Ginger Rogers. One error for Emil has always felt like three or four for someone else. Plus he ALWAYS gets off to slow starts. He’s a lifetime .208 hitter in April. Because of these things, people tend to think he’s a much worse player than he actually is.
So, for the benefit of all, here are the statistics of Emil Brown and Jose Guillen the last three years:
Brown: .279/.340/.428, 85 doubles, 8 triples, 38 homers, 28 steals (6 CS), 121 walks, 274 Ks, 229 RBIs, 196 runs in 1607 PA.
Guillen: .274/.333/.457, 75 doubles, 5 triples, 56 homers, 7 steals (2 CS), 87 walks, 268 Ks, 215 RBIs, 193 runs in 1537 PA.
I hope those numbers popped your eyes out. They popped my eyes out. I can’t even find my eyes. Remember one guy just got paid $12 million per year, the other guy, well, many fans want the Royals to non-tender him (which they will not do, by the way).
Look again at that. I think it’s mind boggling. Yes, Guillen has hit 18 more homers — six per year. Yes, Guillen spent much of that time in the pit called RFK Stadium. Still, Brown has been better in just about every other way (he even has more outfield assists, 27-22, though this probably indicates people try to run on Brown more). And Brown has done all that with a manager who did not believe in him and basically was screwing him at every turn.
Editor’s note: I just saw a comment asking about overall defense. I would say that Guillen’s reputation is as a better defender, but I think that’s in large part because Guillen has a strong arm. The Fielding Bible people have consistently ranked Guillen about average. His Dewan plus-minus numbers have not been very good — Emil has actually has better plus-minus the last couple of years. I would say Guillen is probably a better defender, but I don’t think he’s dramatically better. The Royals aren’t getting a Gold Glove outfielder here.
I think this goes to one of my theories in sports which is this — you tend to appreciate another team’s average player a whole lot more than you appreciate your own average player. You just see your own guy’s flaws more clearly. There’s more emotion involved. I really don’t think Jose Guillen at this stage is a significantly better player than Emil Brown.
In fact — here’s my last word on the subject. A prediction. If they both get 600 PA this year — unlikely, I know, but I do think the Royals will bring Brown back — I believe Emil will put up similar numbers to Guillen, maybe better overall numbers. All for a whole lot less money. You heard it here first (and undoubtedly you heard it here last as well).
Loading ...
31 Comments, Comment or Ping
antoniomo
Those are some sobering statistics. But what about overall defense? Isn’t Guillen significantly better in that area? I do realize you had the outfield assists stat, which looks good for Brown. What about other defensive skills? I’m talking about getting to and catching the ball.
I’m not saying better defense is worth all that extra money. Or that the Guillen signing is a good one. I’m just saying if we’re comparing Brown and Guillen, overall defense should be included.
Dec 7th, 2007
Rep. Kucinich
I’m sorry that Kyle and Mills are angered by my frequent posts on this site. I hope it doesn’t mean they oppose my call for free universal transcendental denistry and sitar music. They should remember that we must all love one another and come together in the spirit of joy and sharing. I’m actually proud that people have compared me to the Keebler Elf or Frodo. I would rather be like those two than be like the dark forces of evil ala Hillary Clinton or Lord Cheney. So, Kyle and Mills, I hope to see both of you today in Cedar Rapids for the Great Kucinich Kook-Off complete with tasty tofu burgers and brussell sprouts. Yummy. Oh, and I think the Guillen signing was a bad one because his use of steroids or HGH is not organic or environmentally sensitive.
Dec 7th, 2007
Brandon Jones
Wow, I am among the Royals fans that saw this as a way to get rid of Brown. Perception is reality I suppose. I’m not thrilled about the Guillen signing either, but I thought he would be better than Brown. I’m now convinced that it was a horizontal move at best not considering the price tag.
Dec 7th, 2007
Ryan
Joe,
Interesting numbers on Brown and Guillen…
As a Twins fan would be interested in your thoughts on the Hunter 5 year 90 million deal with the Angels…should the Twins have made more of a push to sign him?
Seems like a lot of money for a 32 year old OF to me but like you said…that is what the market is now
Dec 7th, 2007
Paul White
I can answer the defense question; Emil Brown and Jose Guillen are essentially defensive equals, with a slight edge to Guillen.
As measured by range factor, each has above average range in either corner outfield spot. For his career, Guillen’s RF in right field is 1.94 compared to a league average of 1.73, so he’s about 12% better than average. Brown career RF in right field is 1.90 compared to a league average of 1.82, 4% better than average. In left field, it’s much closer. Brown has a career RF of 1.81 in left field, which is 10% better than the league average, while Guillen’s career mark is 1.89, 11% better than average.
Using the Rate and FRAA measurements from Baseball Prospectus, Guillen again has an edge, but not terribly large. As a right fielder, his career Rate is 101 (or 1% above average) with 7 FRAA compared to Brown’s 97 (or 3% below average) and -7 FRAA. In left field, Brown is almost exactly average, scoring 100 in Rate and 1 in FRAA , while Guillen scores 104 and 6. It should be noted that Brown’s overall right field numbers are impacted severly by his hideous defensive year in right field in 2005, where his Rate score was 88 and his FRAA was -15. Sicne then, he’s actually been a very good right fielder (109 and 112 Rate scores the last two seasons).
Overall, neither is a Gold Glove candidate (as if outfield GGs mean anything anyway), but each has above average range, and that’s the most obvious need for any outfielder in Kauffman Stadium. Guillen is a touch better, but Brown is still a solid defender, no matter what certain KC Star writers continue ot spout. The perception of Brown as a bad defender is quite likely just a leftover of his bad 2005 defensive campaign, plus, as Joe said, his tendency to just LOOK bad, whether he is or not. Looks can be deceiving defensively, just look at Derek Jeter, or Dave Winfield, who somehow won 7 Gold Gloves with significantly below average Rate and FRAA scores for his career. Brown isn’t the anti-Winfield - he’s not a closet Gold Glover - but he’s not hurting the team out there either, which is the unfortunate picture that is generally portrayed.
Dec 7th, 2007
Matty
I made the exact same point about Guillen and Brown in an e-mail to friends the other day. Royals fans DESPISE Emil Brown. They absolutely despise him. I don’t get it. Maybe I do get it, but I don’t want to think that people around here simply won’t like black athletes who speak their minds and often come across as moody.
Dec 7th, 2007
Ryan
I’m trying to be optimistic about Guillen, but I completely agree with you. With a new manager, they should have just stayed with Brown & used that money in other areas like getting that pitcher from Japan.
$36 million. $36 million. That’s a lot of hot dogs to sell.
Dec 7th, 2007
Bob
I’m not a big fan of the Guillen signing either, but including his 2006 season in the three year analysis seems unfair. He missed the majority of the year to injury, playing only 69 games. If you use his 2004 season, which was also one of his best seasons, it adds 13 doubles, 18 homeruns, 22 walks 60 runs and 64 RBI to Guillen’s totals.
Dec 7th, 2007
Neekolaaz
Why couldn’t we just pay Emil Brown, play him every day, and then invest the money we *would have* paid Jose Guillen in some young draft picks? With the exception of last year’s draft, the Royals typically appear to avoid guys with tremendous potential because of the signability issues. (Even last year, wasn’t there a pitcher who fell to the Tigers late in the draft b/c he was too expensive to sign?) Let’s just invest that Jose Guillen money in some scouting and draft picks with the goal of developing some *young* power…
The Royals will never be able to buy *established* power hitters with their current revenue structure. It’s always going to be a waste of money to sign these guys on the downside of their careers. And for the record, I hope I’m drastically wrong about Guillen b/c I would love to see somebody with power who actually struck fear in opposing pitchers playing for the boys in (powder) blue…
Dec 7th, 2007
Jacob
So wait … you’re predicting that a 33-year-old corner outfielder coming off a season with a 68 OPS+ will outperform a 32-year-old corner outfielder coming off a season with a 116 OPS+? I don’t see it. Just for a little confirmation, Bills James’s projection system has Guillen at 274/333/455 and Brown at 264/328/398 for next year. Or, in RC/27, 5.17 to 4.46, a substantial difference.
Admit it, you’re just trying to avoid becoming Emil’s next pellet-gun victim.
Dec 7th, 2007
Josh
Dave Sheinen and the other Washington Post writers have STRONGLY suggested that Guillen was a clubhouse cancer with the Nationals, and that most of his teammates were glad to be rid of his attitude.
On the other hand, he REGULARLY played through injuries. Though I wish he would not have (I’m a Red Sox fan living in DC, trying to grow an attachment to the Nats), that blame isn’t his at all, and reflects well on his desire to play.
Me, I’ve always been suspicious of guys who play on too many teams. It’s what I learned from the Carl Everett Experience in Boston. I think most GMs prefer the devils they know to the devils they don’t (though maybe this is based on what I’ve seen out of Baltimore’s strange loyalty to BJ Surhoff and other mediocre talents), so teams’ willingness to part ways with Guillen speaks VERY poorly about him, to me.
Dec 7th, 2007
NYRoyal
Joe, friend, please. Are you serious? I like you and I love your writing Joe, but your Emil Brown analysis saddened me. Look at Brown’s track record and his age. Those are the kinds of things which led to Bill James 2008 prediction for Brown: Brown: 264/328/398 (available at Fangraphs.com). Do you really think Guillen isn’t going to top those numbers significantly?
Even if you include Guillen’s injury-hampered 2006, he’s been better than Brown over the last three years. And he’s younger, so he’s at a better place on the decline curve. So if Guillen is better and declining slower than Brown, how could Brown have numbers similar to Guillen in 2008 if given the opportunity? It doesn’t seem like your analysis was either very deeply researched, well thought out or particularly logical on this one.
Dec 7th, 2007
Jeff
Joe, fans hate successful players all the time. I just cant imagine that my lack of faith in Emil found its way into his hustle, blustering in the OF over mishandled balls, and not running out every ground ball. Buddy Bell filled the lineup out to supposedly win game, yet used Emil sparingly. Why? Not because i dont like the guy.
Emil has been on this team for what 3 or 4 years now, and has done nothing to distant himself from the other players. Its on his shoulders why his job just got put in jeopardy.
Dec 7th, 2007
The B-Man
Guillen has a cannon for an arm also. Can that be measured in a stat? Like you said Joe, runners are probably more reluctant to run on him.
Dec 7th, 2007
Kyle
For the record, the “Kucinich” posts don’t anger me, but they are just not funny, imo. It’s like a bad SNL sketch that won’t end.
Dec 7th, 2007
Craig Hooten
Here’s an interesting case of perception not standing up to looking at hard numbers. Let’s look at 2 hitters 2005 and 2006 seasons:
Hitter A 2005: .280/.355/.436
Hitter A 2006: .289/.353/.516
Hitter B 2005: .286/.349/.455
Hitter B 2006: .287/.358/.457
Overall, pretty similar numbers. Hitter A was pretty popular in Kansas City before the Royals made the mistake of letting him sign with the Seattle Mariners.
That’s right, Hitter A is Raul Ibanez and Hitter B is Emil Brown. I threw out 2007 due to Buddy Bell’s complete inability to figure out a lineup card.
Granted, Ibanez is a left handed hitter and Brown is a right handed hitter but overall their numbers are pretty similar.
In another case of “perception” versus “reality” I’m going to use Ibanez again. For everybody that thinks that Guillen’s numbers are going to improve dramatically from leaving a “pitcher’s park” in Seattle to come to a “hitter’s park” here in KC, you might want to go look at Ibanez’s numbers in KC vs. his numbers in Seattle:
Ibanez hit .294/.345/.454 in his last year in Kansas City.
Ibanez hit .304/.353/.472 in his first year in Seattle.
Throw out Raul’s 2006 season which appears to be a career year, and his numbers in Kansas City and in Seattle are extremely consistent and projectable.
I will say that I’m while I’m not convinced Guillen’s numbers are going to go all Kevin McReynolds on us I will agree with Joe that given the same number of plate appearances, there won’t be a discernable statistical difference between Brown and Guillen. The exception of course will be on the payroll line where Guillen will make 12 million dollars and Brown will make 3.5 to 4 milllion.
Let me make the prediction now, that in 2009 or 2010 Guillen will be as unpopular in Kansas City as Emil Brown is today and everybody will be itching to get rid of him and his 12 million dollar salary.
Dec 7th, 2007
JAmes
Joe,
You are the best…but…
Anyone can get stats to make their point.
You picked the last three years, which augments your point.
But in 2006, Guillen was playing with an injured elbow one of the worst HR parks in the majors.
He played through the injury, until he couldn’t any longer, and put up terrible numbers.
If you combined his last three healthy seasons (2004, 2005, 2007), Guillen’s numbers are vastly superior. He doubles Brown’s HR total and outdistances Emil in every other category.
Brown has been healthy for three years and has a .768 OPS. which is below the league average.
A HEALTHY Guillen is better, hands down, than Brown. And he’s 18 months younger.
And could you explain how Buddy Bell screwed him at every turn? I think more Royals fans are amazed the mediocre Emil got as much playing time as he did.
Dec 7th, 2007
Mike Bagnall
Predicting the future is a very difficult game to master. Even attempting it is a waste of energy, in my opinion. If nobody tried it, though, I guess there wouldn’t be any baseball to watch. I can’t even win simulated baseball games where I know the players performance before the season starts. I can’t even predict the past.
Dec 7th, 2007
Blue
Torii Hunter OPS+ (Last Five Years)
106
101
65
108
101
Jose Guillen OPS+ (Last Five Years)
142
121
116
75
116
Emil Brown OPS+ (Last Three Years)
113
109
68
Of the thirteen player years above, Guillen has the top four spots. His worst year is better than the other three player’s worst year. He has put up the clearly superior stat line over the other two candidates.
How is it that Torii Hunter, of the barely above 100 OPS, is a great signing (for more years and dollars) while Guillen is a terrible signing???
It just makes no sense!
Dec 8th, 2007
Ryan
Does anyone else think that royals management is following the Detroit model: Combine overpaid mediocre free agents (Vina), with up and coming talent just to attain respectability/relevance.
I remember Dombrowski and/or Illitch admitting to this at the time, basically admitting that they were overpaying for franchise viability.
Dec 8th, 2007
Walter
It’s definitely putting duct tape on a busted water pipe. It will help, but going to need actual fixing someday. Right now, I just want that water to stop leaking.
And that means, I want to laugh at Emil Brown as he’s stumbling around somebody else’s outfield.
Dec 8th, 2007
Justyo
Once you’re off the juice a lot of things happen both physically and psychologically. Also, injuries are more severe and harder to recover from. Look at Gary Matthews Jr. My prediction. Guillen doesn’t last through July.
Dec 8th, 2007
Chris
I find the comparison very interesting.
Reminds me of these guys:
Player A: .264 .386 .554, 40 HR, 101 BB, 165 K
Player B: .268 .392 .584, 47 HR, 107 BB, 199 K
Player A is ripped incessantly for striking out too much. Player B ranked #5 in the MVP voting and is (more or less) universally beloved. Both are 27 years old. Player A has 238 career HRs. Player B 129.
Dec 8th, 2007
Old Man Duggan
Might those men be Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard?
Dec 8th, 2007
Old Man Duggan
I don’t know what to make of the Jose Guillen signing. I’m worried that if he doesn’t pan out, the Glass family (not Franny, Zooey, or Seymour) will use that as an excuse to tell Dayton he can’t keep spending money. Pulling those purse-strings tight will not help things at all. I really hope baseball really is that flush with cash and that it lasts because if it doesn’t last and Guillen doesn’t pan out, we Royals fans are SOL.
Dec 8th, 2007
NYRoyal
So is Joe going to print a blog retraction? No mention of Guillen’s injury-hampered 2006 season. No mention of the significance of the fact that Brown is 1 1/2 years older. No mention of the predictions of various projection systems for Brown. I put Bill James prediction above. I’ll add his ZIPS projection now: .268/.332/.392. That is amazingly similar to James’s projection for Brown. And it is absolutely horrible for a corner OFer.
Even though the Guillen signing does not preclude other big moves both this year and next year when the FA class is better, one can argue that it was not a move for the Royals. But the weakest, absolutely worst argument against the Guillen signing is that the Royals already had a decent option in Brown. His likely .720 OPS isn’t was never an acceptable option.
Dec 8th, 2007
Sean
Chris: how bout the career numbers for player A/B:
Player A: 248/381/519 OPS+130 RC/GAME 7.3
Player B: 291/397/610 OPS+151 RC/GAME 9.0
While the difference between Dunn and Howard isn’t as great as the media perception of them suggests, Howard has been significantly more productive. And yes it is silly how Dunn has the strikeout idiot reputation while Howard jusk K’d 199 time this year.
Dec 8th, 2007
Jeremie
The previous comments point out some very good counterpoints. Joe, I think you inadvertently inserted one in your post as well: .208 in April. .208!!
We’ve seen a number of Royals through the years (Johnny Damon, for example) struggle in April and May, and then rebound to play good, yet completely meaningless, baseball.
For a team like the Royals (underdog squad, young players, “show me” fan base), it is absolutely critical to start well and build momentum. Guillen isn’t a world beater in April but is remarkably consistent throughout the year, much like Ibanez in his KC days.
Last three years for Guillen:
Pre AS Break: .275 avg, .332 obp, 773 OPS
Post Break: .274, .334, 801
Now, is it worth millions to set yourself up for a strong early start? Maybe, maybe not. But I’d much rather watch April baseball with optimism instead of watching Emil help put us 15 games out by Memorial Day.
Dec 8th, 2007
Jackie Ballgame
You guys made my arguments already… Just to add, as the guys at Royals Authority already pointed out, fair or not, Emil has been the symbol of the Royals’ annual eulogy in early May. It doesn’t seem to make sense, mathematically, to say that just because a guy has a bad start and a strong finish he is a bad player…he should be judged on his end-of-season stat line, right? Well, there’s usually more to the story than just Sabre-metrics. As suggested above, if you’re fifteen games out by Memorial Day, the players might stop trying as hard and the team as a whole has less success. Good starts lend themselves to better play over the course of the season. When I play basketball, for example (hardly ever these days), I sense the team sort of gives up if we’re down 10-0 in a game to 21.
Dec 9th, 2007
Chris
Valid points, Sean. Howard has outproduced Dunn over the past two years (ignoring that Dunn played 4+ seasons before Howard arrived). My primary point is that the two guys are pretty comparable, but their reputations/perceptions are wildly divergent. Howard’s slightly overpraised. Dunn is pretty badly slandered.
Dec 9th, 2007
scott menze
i promise you that anyone on the star board didn’t hear it from you first. i really enjoyed your comments as they parrot mine.
if guillen is indeed at 12 mil a year player, then emil brown is at least an 11 mil a year player.
Dec 17th, 2007
Reply to “What Brown Can Do For You …”