Comments on: What Brown Can Do For You …

By: scott menze

scott menze — Mon, 17 Dec 2007 07:22:04 +0000

i promise you that anyone on the star board didn’t hear it from you first. i really enjoyed your comments as they parrot mine.

if guillen is indeed at 12 mil a year player, then emil brown is at least an 11 mil a year player.

By: Chris

Chris — Sun, 09 Dec 2007 01:58:25 +0000

Valid points, Sean. Howard has outproduced Dunn over the past two years (ignoring that Dunn played 4+ seasons before Howard arrived). My primary point is that the two guys are pretty comparable, but their reputations/perceptions are wildly divergent. Howard’s slightly overpraised. Dunn is pretty badly slandered.

By: Jackie Ballgame

Jackie Ballgame — Sun, 09 Dec 2007 01:09:56 +0000

You guys made my arguments already… Just to add, as the guys at Royals Authority already pointed out, fair or not, Emil has been the symbol of the Royals’ annual eulogy in early May. It doesn’t seem to make sense, mathematically, to say that just because a guy has a bad start and a strong finish he is a bad player…he should be judged on his end-of-season stat line, right? Well, there’s usually more to the story than just Sabre-metrics. As suggested above, if you’re fifteen games out by Memorial Day, the players might stop trying as hard and the team as a whole has less success. Good starts lend themselves to better play over the course of the season. When I play basketball, for example (hardly ever these days), I sense the team sort of gives up if we’re down 10-0 in a game to 21.

By: Jeremie

Jeremie — Sat, 08 Dec 2007 19:15:22 +0000

The previous comments point out some very good counterpoints. Joe, I think you inadvertently inserted one in your post as well: .208 in April. .208!!

We’ve seen a number of Royals through the years (Johnny Damon, for example) struggle in April and May, and then rebound to play good, yet completely meaningless, baseball.

For a team like the Royals (underdog squad, young players, “show me” fan base), it is absolutely critical to start well and build momentum. Guillen isn’t a world beater in April but is remarkably consistent throughout the year, much like Ibanez in his KC days.

Last three years for Guillen:
Pre AS Break: .275 avg, .332 obp, 773 OPS
Post Break: .274, .334, 801

Now, is it worth millions to set yourself up for a strong early start? Maybe, maybe not. But I’d much rather watch April baseball with optimism instead of watching Emil help put us 15 games out by Memorial Day.

By: Sean

Sean — Sat, 08 Dec 2007 19:13:19 +0000

Chris: how bout the career numbers for player A/B:

Player A: 248/381/519 OPS+130 RC/GAME 7.3
Player B: 291/397/610 OPS+151 RC/GAME 9.0

While the difference between Dunn and Howard isn’t as great as the media perception of them suggests, Howard has been significantly more productive. And yes it is silly how Dunn has the strikeout idiot reputation while Howard jusk K’d 199 time this year.

By: NYRoyal

NYRoyal — Sat, 08 Dec 2007 16:35:21 +0000

So is Joe going to print a blog retraction? No mention of Guillen’s injury-hampered 2006 season. No mention of the significance of the fact that Brown is 1 1/2 years older. No mention of the predictions of various projection systems for Brown. I put Bill James prediction above. I’ll add his ZIPS projection now: .268/.332/.392. That is amazingly similar to James’s projection for Brown. And it is absolutely horrible for a corner OFer.

Even though the Guillen signing does not preclude other big moves both this year and next year when the FA class is better, one can argue that it was not a move for the Royals. But the weakest, absolutely worst argument against the Guillen signing is that the Royals already had a decent option in Brown. His likely .720 OPS isn’t was never an acceptable option.

By: Old Man Duggan

Old Man Duggan — Sat, 08 Dec 2007 07:53:50 +0000

I don’t know what to make of the Jose Guillen signing. I’m worried that if he doesn’t pan out, the Glass family (not Franny, Zooey, or Seymour) will use that as an excuse to tell Dayton he can’t keep spending money. Pulling those purse-strings tight will not help things at all. I really hope baseball really is that flush with cash and that it lasts because if it doesn’t last and Guillen doesn’t pan out, we Royals fans are SOL.

By: Old Man Duggan

Old Man Duggan — Sat, 08 Dec 2007 07:51:31 +0000

Might those men be Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard?

By: Chris

Chris — Sat, 08 Dec 2007 05:49:51 +0000

I find the comparison very interesting.

Reminds me of these guys:

Player A: .264 .386 .554, 40 HR, 101 BB, 165 K
Player B: .268 .392 .584, 47 HR, 107 BB, 199 K

Player A is ripped incessantly for striking out too much. Player B ranked #5 in the MVP voting and is (more or less) universally beloved. Both are 27 years old. Player A has 238 career HRs. Player B 129.

By: Justyo

Justyo — Sat, 08 Dec 2007 04:40:32 +0000

Once you’re off the juice a lot of things happen both physically and psychologically. Also, injuries are more severe and harder to recover from. Look at Gary Matthews Jr. My prediction. Guillen doesn’t last through July.