OK, I’m not a fan of the Royals signing of Jose Guillen. I’m not a fan of it because I have this very real suspicion that the guy is about to go in the tank. I mean REALLY go in the tank. He’s almost 32. He’s been directly linked to some pretty heavy steroid and HGH use. He’s on his ninth different team.
Here are the totals from his last five years:
.270/.339/.431, 114 homers, 405 RBIs, 357 runs, 50 RCAA
Now, that’s nothing special. If he maintains those numbers, I don’t see how it really helps the Royals all that much. A couple of wins a year, maybe? But here’s my big problem: I don’t think he will maintain even those numbers.
His top B-R comp through age 31 (not counting Juan Encarnacion, who is the same age) is Kevin McReynolds:
McReynolds from age 27-31
.273/.331/.463, 118 homers, 435 RBIs, 382 runs, 89 Runs Created Above Avg.
McReynolds from age 32-34
.263/.334/.403, 28 homers, 112 RBIs, 112 runs, -7 RCAA
You will notice that’s a pretty big drop. A very big drop.
Next on the list is Joe Rudi
Rudi from age 27-31
.274/.324/.460, 86 homers, 400 RBIs, 299 runs, 70 RCAA
Rudi from age 32-35 (one of those years was the 1981 strike)
.227/.283/.385, 38 homers, 156 RBIs, 112 runs, -26 RCAA
And, then there’s one of my favorites, Mel Hall, who isn’t a great five-year comp, but it’s still worth seeing what he did after age 32:
Hall from age 27-31
.274/.305/.427, 69 homers, 336 RBIs, 298 runs, 0 RCAA
Mel Hall from age 32-on
.120/.339/.422, 1 homer, 4 RBIs, 4 runs, 0 RCAA
Not so good. Now, it should be said the next two comps on the list held up pretty well. Dusty Baker was a very solid mid-30s player, and Luis Gonzalez turned into Superman when he turned 32 (yes George Reeves Superman, not Steve Reeve, I got it, hey, it was late). Not sure if you can really compare Guillen to Baker or Gonzalez for different and somewhat obvious reasons.
But believe it or not, none of this is really my point. Yes, I think Guillen was a bad signing, but others who know more about baseball than I do think it will work out fine, they think Guillen will maintain a .290/.340/.450 kind of pace, maybe even have a better year or two in there, and I don’t think that’s impossible. Improbable, yes. Not impossible.
No, this is my point. The same day the Royals signed Jose Guillen for $12 million per, the Detroit Tigers traded for Miggy Cabrera AND Dontrelle Willis.
Sigh.
These, to me, have always been the most depressing days to be a Royals fan. It’s those days when some other team (always some other team) makes a huge deal, a big signing, a franchise-changing moment. I think the biggest reason I liked the Gil Meche signing last year is that, for a few moments anyway, people were TALKING ABOUT THE ROYALS. Yes, they were saying that the Royals were dumb and irresponsible, but the Royals existed for at least a little while.
I’m saying that every so often the reality of this whole thing just slaps you right in the face. The Royals had to borrow, steal, beg, plead and overspend to get a middle-aged corner outfielder with moderate power and a reputation. Jose Guillen could not even get into the Boston Red Sox lineup. He’s the Royals big signing this offseason.
Meanwhile, the division-rival Tigers trade Andrew Miller (who the Royals should have taken in the 2006 draft), Cameron Maybin (who looks like he will be a stud, unlike Royals high school outfielder first-round pick Chris Lubanski) and some other lesser prospects for a 24-year-old hitter whose OPS+ the last three years was 151, 159 and 150, and a soon-to-be 26-year-old lefty starter who has thrown 200 innings each of the last three years, almost won a Cy Young, and has 68 career victories.
Seriously, what chance do the Royals even have?
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26 Comments, Comment or Ping
Mills
I agree that it is deflating to see the Tigers snag such a coup. Adding a HOF bat to that already potent lineup is absolutely scary. I think Gil Meche just had to change his underpants. Anway, they are pretty much gold for the next two seasons it appears. However, after that (maybe even after this coming season) they will get old in a hurry. Miller and Maybin represented the future of Detroit, and dealing them was a severe blow to the future. They will not have cheap and controlled super talent in the next few years now.
Anyway, back to the Guillen signing. I love it. Not a very long committment at fair money for for good production production. I disagree with you with respect to your thoughts of his imminent decline. He hasn’t shown any signs of decline to date, and todays atheletes play longer in their prime than ever before (generally). The Royals haven’t had a legitimate 25-30 hr right handed bat since Mike Sweeny was actually in the lineup on a semi-regular basis. Couple a nice corner OF bat with improvement from Butler, Gordon, and Teahan, and you have a real nice middle of the lineup… and excellent RH/LH balance, at a great price.
Dec 5th, 2007
Matt
I guess the reason I have reservations is the steriods. I mean, sure, he hasn’t tested positive yet, but it seems to me that that’s an arguement people throw out there because they know he’s guilty.
And yeah, it’s a business, blah blah blah, the most the Royals could lose out on Guillen is 50 games they won’t have to pay him for. And sure, there have been Royals in the past I didn’t know about that were juiced, but still. I hate feeling that we compromised on ethics to get some run production. I’d rather wait for Butler and Gordon to mature and get a clean free agent next year than deal with a semi-star on steriods.
Dec 5th, 2007
Rob L.
I’m a White Sox fan and I feel crushed as well. The Tigers are stacked, the Indians are very good and they are now trying to acquire Bay and the Twins aren’t a threat this year, but they know it and they’ve made moves for the future. The White Sox have a $100 Million dollar payroll and pretty much no chance of winning the division.
Dec 5th, 2007
Chris
I know exactly where you are coming from with this, however, I do believe that Dayton made a good move here; not a great move, mind you, but perhaps the only move he could make. We don’t need to go into what the Royals need in their lineup, as that has been well documented, but looking at the alternatives, and how much they could have thrown away on a diminishing return, they HAD to go with Guillen
Torii Hunter:
Age: 32
Career OPS+: 104
Total Salary : $90 million
Jose Guillen:
Age: 31
Career OPS+: 101
Total Salary: $36 million
Andruw Rudolph Jones:
Age: 30
Career OPS+: 113
Asking for: $100+ million
Now, I know that $12 million/year is a lot of money, especially compared to the Royals of the past, but that is the market these days. You have to spend that kind of jack on mediocre players because the Angels gave $50 million to Gary Matthews Jr. and the Red Sox gave $70 million to JD Drew. Three years is a very safe commitment, and it would be a much easier hit to take when he doesn’t work out than Torri would have been, and that will help when they need to resign Greinke, and Teahen (woah…a shiver just went down my spine as I was typing that).
It was the safe move, the smart move, and it proves that the Royals are still players, and willing to spend money. Just thank your lucky stars it was on Jose Guillen, and not Aaron Rowand.
Dec 5th, 2007
Barnhart
Joe — the email from Bill James.
OPEN IT.
This is why god made the interweb.
Dec 5th, 2007
Mills
I second the nomination for you to open the Bill James email.
Dec 5th, 2007
Paul White
I like the signing, for two reasons.
First, I think it’s a fair contract on its face. The Royals had league-average pitching last season, (wait, I think my fingers just broke as I typed that…there, all better) but they couldn’t hit a lick. They simply had to go get a reliable bat, and Guillen was the best value on the market since he didn’t require 5 years or $15-$18 million per season. Having a 116 OPS+ in the lineup, which is what Guillen represents in recent years, is a fantastic upgrade over last year. Quick, which regular had the highest OPS+ last year? If you guessed Billy Butler, you’d be half-right. His 105 OPS+ led the team, but he only played about 60% of a season. The full-time leader was Mark Grudzielanek at 100, exactly league-average. Remember when everyone was excited about Mark Teahen’s 2006 season? He was Royals Player of the Year for posting a 122 OPS+ while missing 50 games. Guillen gives you nearly that much production only with a general reputation for being durable added in.
Second, I think it’s a touch shortsighted to consider the Guillen move in a vacuum. Don’t consider this just a single transaction, consider it an enabler for the Royals to deal either Joey Gathright or David DeJesus or Mark Teahen and get yet another bat. How about a first baseman who can hit? Or a shortstop who can hit? Or a left fielder who can hit? The Royals need all of those things and currently have two center fielders with value (DeJesus and Gathright) and two right fielders with value (Teahen and Guillen) to help plug one of those holes. In other words, the aquisition of Guillen doesn’t just add a couple of wins from the right field position, it also might help the Royals add a couple of wins from another position as well. Suddenly you’ve got a 4-win swing from one signing, without yet discussing the improvement of Butler & Gordon. Throw them into the mix and you’re staring at .500, a sight the Royals haven’t viewed in quite a while.
Dec 5th, 2007
Ben
I agree with the opening of the Bill James e-mail.
Dec 5th, 2007
Ben
Oh, yeah, the Guillen guy. The jury is still out on him for me.
What would you have done, Joe, if you would not have signed Guillen?
Dec 5th, 2007
Ryan
I’ve been saying to friends that at least we “saved” $60 million by not signing Hunter. Right? Sometimes, you have to look at the silver lining.
The Royals aren’t going to seriously compete for another 2-3 years anyway. Three years from now, where is Detroit going to get the money to sign all those young guys to big contracts?
Hopefully, we can sign that starter from the Chibo Lattes (new Starbucks drink!), and have a decent starting staff.
More depressing news, btw, is Riske signing with the Brewers for three years.
Dec 5th, 2007
Blake
I think the casual fan (I’m a Tiger fan, sorry) thought that Dayton Moore was really going to right the ship in KC. To me it looks like last year was a success, some young talent got some playing time and played well, Sweeney came off the books, and Meche is looking like a (sort of) bargain.
I don’t get the Guillen signing at all. Word is no one else was offering more than $7 a year. Hmm. I’d be really worried if they spent the rest on Andruw Jones.
Dec 5th, 2007
Rep. Kucinich
No alien life forms have yet to answer my clarion call. The Ronulans are trying to over run my campaign headquarters at THIS VERY MOMENT! We are trying to hold them off with Nerf guns and Reynold’s (Harold, Shane, or Craig) Wrap. Our office is located in a strip mall in Waterloo across from the Burger King and next door to the Curves Fitness Center. We need your aid now! The hour is near! The Hale Bop Comet is growing closer. Rally for socialism and peace now or be overrun by the Ronulans and the Bushites! You can assist by quickly goin ggg to thheeee ah sfsfgggd the damnnnn PaTRIOT acT is over rrunnningng mmy briannnnn andjfjjj help
Dec 5th, 2007
Brian
I just read on espn.com that MLB is negotiating with the player’s union on a 10-15 game suspension for Guillen related to his HGH purchases.
Dec 5th, 2007
Dim
Shouldn’t that be “Romneulans”?
Dec 5th, 2007
Rep. Kucinich
thye are ron paul whackos or Ronulans and they are over running my HQs!!! mind growing weaker…..air is becoming short……must hold…fortht hope thrat adjfsf sfi it will be ok only if fffwrwrwr we can rallyyyyy fsafsfb but im unsure ajfjsfs sc sh mount up and sing songs of peace fsgjgg aajfjughghghghghg ugh ZELNORM!!!!!
Dec 5th, 2007
Kyle
The Kucinich schtick was tired about 5 minutes after the first post. Please stop.
Dec 5th, 2007
Mills
I second the motion for stopping the Kucinich schtick.
Dec 5th, 2007
Captain Obvious
Who exactly did KC outbid for Guillen’s services? In which if his many stops hasn’t he worn out his welcome? I don’t see this ending well for either the player or the team.
They would’ve been much better off spending the first $12 million of this deal on this year’s draft and international free agents, and spending the rest of the money on someone better, younger and saner next year.
Or adding some of it to their Kuroda offer.
Dec 5th, 2007
David
I think the Kucinich stuff is hilarious. Is it really twisting you guys that badly?
Dec 5th, 2007
Jeremie
Not that this plan makes the clubhouse situation any better than Guillen, but I think for comparable risk we could have brought Milton Bradley here for several million less and sweetened our offer to Kuroda. Milty’s leg will have him back on the field in the same time it will take Guillen to serve his suspension.
As for the Tigers, I salute them for more reasons than money. The reason? They want it. They want to win a division. They want to win a Series. And they want to put those 119-loss years as far away as possible. We need that mindset.
The Royals had the juice to pull off a Cabrera deal, but they simply didn’t want it bad enough. You’re telling me Beinfest’s ears wouldn’t have perked up if Dayton had put together a package resembling Butler/Lubanski/Hochevar? And you’re telling me we wouldn’t want to do that? Cabrera is only 24 - we could have the rights to 10-12 years of HOF caliber hitting. He and Gordon could man 3B & 1B for a decade apiece.
But no, we don’t even sniff that. Why? Our small market mindset has Moneyballed us into thinking we shouldn’t DARE trade top prospects, even for one of the top 5-10 bats in baseball. Yeah, a guy like Butler is hard to deal, but look at the return. I’m not betting on Billy outperforming Cabrera over the next 10 years.
Dayton is cleaning up a train wreck pretty nicely, but there is still a hint of inferiority in the air. Sometimes, absolutely, we hold on to what we have and develop talent and work smarter given the limited resources. But when a Cabrera is there for the taking, we can’t sit on the sidelines if we have the ability to get in the game. So Joe’s headline is dead on - sigh…
Dec 5th, 2007
Blue
“And you’re telling me we wouldn’t want to do that? Cabrera is only 24 - we could have the rights to 10-12 years of HOF caliber hitting.”
Um, Cabrera is a free agent in two years.
Dec 6th, 2007
Ryan
I’m not happy about Guillen putting on the powder blue uniforms next year (did you hear? they’re coming back!), but maybe it can free up a trade that will bring in one or two guys that will help us out in two years, when Guillen’s skill depreciate it.
Dec 6th, 2007
Minda
Well check this out! Apparently the deal is not final after all:
http://mvn.com/mlb-royals/2007/12/05/guillen-deal-still-not-official/
If Craig Brown says it, it must be true.
Dec 6th, 2007
Steve
Minda, I came here with the intention of sharing that post with the Joe Posnanski community, only to find you have beaten me to it. Well done.
They could just be waiting to see what comes of the league’s negotiation with the player’s union before fully committing to Guillen and the contract. I agree with Craig, 10-15 isn’t that severe, and I believe it would save us a little cash since we wouldn’t have to pay Guillen the money owed for that time…but then again, perhaps GMDM wasn’t completely convinced of the deal to begin with, and the word of the possibly suspension is starting to sway him the other way. Then again, maybe he’s just a frequent reader of this blog, and Joe’s insight is bringing him back to his senses…
Have to say I’m not really behind the Guillen signing myself. He strikes me as a more athletic (read: less clumsy) defender than Emil Brown, with a much better arm. Him in one corner and Teahan in the other gives us two great arms in the corner OF spots, but I’m not so sure Guillen is going to produce the offense justifying the contract. (I do, however, think Teahan returns to form, more or less, this season.)
Dec 6th, 2007
Frankie
Sorry Joe, this was a good move for the Royals. Just because two guys with similar numbers in different eras declined happened to decline at 32, you think Guillen will? He’s consistently put up good offensive numbers for years; he just never really got the recognition he deserved because he was such a “bad guy” in the clubhouse or whatever. (remember the whole incident with the Angels, when Scioscia spun his intensity into insubordination?) Here’s what will happen: he will serve his 15 games, then provide the same kind of production as Hunter and Andruw for less than half the price, and the Royals will surprise everyone by winning 80-83 games.
Dec 7th, 2007
Jeff
Joe, I like the signing for two reasons.
#1. It is only a 3 year commitment. The Royals missed out on the one guy they considered a franchise type player. The Angels shocked everyone buy going so far above what everyone considered, the Royals fell back into a slight panic mode.
The had one glaring need this offseason. Righthanded legitamite power bat. Now he wasnt the premier slugger, but i’d think he was 3rd in this FA market.
[i]Guillen is still in his peak as a hitter and shows enough defensively that he’s well worth a multiyear commitment, although the makeup concerns from his past will probably limit offers to three years.[/i] Keith Law.
I generally respect Keiths opinion. The Royals filled their need without having to be concerned with money when it comes time to buy out Gordons and Butlers arb years. The only way Alex and Billy are going to see the pitchs they need to succeed is if the guy behind puts the ball in the fountains. Dayton has said repeatedly “The most important thing is getting the player.” Yes, the Royals could have haggled with over the 2-4 million he was projected to recieve. I would have been far disappointed if we had watched everyone else do something and us stand pat.
Right now, i would be floating Mark Teahens name as a LH 3b that can play an improving OF. I believe the Brewers are finding every reason in the world to move Braun to LF. Perhaps they could battle for 3rd with the loser defensively going to LF.
Joe, would you trade Billy Butler for a #1 starter? Whats your opinion of Billy Butlers future? I think hes a luxury we cant afford. Becuase of his lack of position, if i could get Matt Cain and some other prospects of Daytons choice, i would seriously consider moving him. The Royals arent going to get a chance at somebody like him any other way. And if we are going to win in the Central, it will be thru pitching and hustle. I love Billys potential, but hes an All Star in the batters box and a AA player outside. His desire cant make up for his slow feet. A luxury we cant afford.
Dec 7th, 2007
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