A few times on this blog, I’ve made passing mentions about my utter confusion about Dennis Eckersley. I grew up an Eck fan, of course, and I have admired the way he reinvented himself as a brilliant reliever after seven long years as a mediocre starter (from 1980-86, Eck went 74-78 with a 4.14 ERA).
Still, I could not and still cannot figure out how he just waltzed into the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility. I’m not making a judgment here about whether or not Eck DESERVES to be in the Hall of Fame. I’m just somewhat baffled by HOW he made it so so fast and without much fuss. His case, it seems to me, is nuanced and while I’m usually willing to stand up and take the bullets for the Baseball Writers Hall of Fame record, I’m not going to tell you that we/they do “nuance” well.
Look at Eckersley’s two careers:
As a starter: 149-130, 3.71 ERA, 1609 Ks, 612 walks, 20 SHO, 268 HR.
As a reliever: 48-41, 2.85 ERA, 390 saves, 792 Ks, 126 walks, 79 HR.
So, as a starter he’s somewhere in the neighborhood of Rick Rhoden, Doug Drabek, you know, a little Charlie Leibrandt, good starter, two or three outstanding years.
As a reliever, he’s somewhere in the neighborhood of Jeff Reardon, maybe a little Lee Smith or Tom Henke thrown in, lots of saves, fabulous strikeout to walk, the bulk of saves picked up during a six-year period when he was really quite special (although it should be noted that 141 of those saves were picked up in Eck’s crappy afterlife as a 60-inning-a-year mediocre closer).
Now maybe when you put Drabek and Henke together you get a Hall of Famer (actually you would get “Drake.” Love the Drake!). I’m really not arguing the point. I’m saying that nobody even thought about it. They just voted him right in. Do not pass go. Do not collect Bert Blyleven. Poor Bert. I mean just compare the two:
Bert Blyleven: 288-250, 3.31 ERA, 60 shutouts, 3,701 Ks, 1,322 walks.
Dennis Eckersley: 197-171, 3.50 ERA, 390 saves, 20 shutouts, 2,401 Ks, 739 walks.
Come on, whose career was better? Who do you think contributed more to his team?
By Win Shares:
Blyleven 339.
Eckersley: 301
By Runs Saved Against Average (RSAA)
Blyleven: 344
Eckersley: 208
By ERA+
Blyleven: 118
Eckersley: 116
I’m getting off track here. When I mentioned my Eckersley bafflement in a recent MVP post, Brilliant Reader Craig challenged all of us to come up with a reliever who had a better five-year span than Dennis Eckersley did from 1988 to 1992. Here are the Eck numbers he quoted from those years:
Eck: 1.90 ERA, .855 WHIP, 220 saves.
Good numbers. Well, we love a good challenge. Here are some great five-year spans for relievers, ranked by their Runs Saves Against Average (RSAA). I realize that RSAA is only one statistic, but since it does measure, you know, runs saved against the average pitcher, it seems a pretty good one to use.
Quiz (1981-85): 29-26, 2.31 ERA, 179 sv, 116 RSAA
Mariano Rivera (1996-2000): 28-14, 2.13 ERA, 165 sv, 110 RSAA
Goose (1977-81): 36-27, 1.91 ERA, 124 sv, 103 RSAA
Bruce Sutter (1977-81): 29-32, 2.38 ERA, 148 sv, 93 RSAA
Billy Wagner (2002-2006): 16-11, 2.05 ERA, 178 sv, 93 RSAA
Hoyt Wilhelm (1961-64): 40-41, 2.14 ERA, 101 sv, 92 RSAA
Jeff Montgomery (1989-1993): 25-23, 2.22 ERA, 159 sv, 92 RSAA
John Wetteland (1993-97): 23-19, 2.31 ERA, 173 sv, 84 RSAA
Sparky Lyle (1973-77): 39-32, 2.29 ERA, 97 sv, 80 RSAA
Roberto Hernandez (1996-00): 24-24, 2.89 ERA, 170 sv, 76 RSAA
John Franco (1984-88): 38-22, 2.37 ERA, 116 sv, 75 RSAA
Trevor Hoffman (1996-2000): 25-21, 2.31 ERA, 215 sv, 74 RSAA
Eck (1988-92)- 24-9, 1.90 ERA, 220 sv, 73 RSAA
OK, so that’s how many? Twelve? There are more.
Now, I don’t know how convincing this will be to you. Not everyone believes in Runs Saved Against Average — I suspect few of the BBWAA voters took Eckersley’s RSAA into consideration. Eckersley still has the best raw ERA in the group and the most saves and a terrific won-loss record. Sure, I may counter that he just didn’t pitch many innings, he pitched in a huge ballpark, he pitched in a pretty low run-scoring time, and he pitched for hard-hitting clubs that undoubtedly gave him many, many, many easy save opportunities*.
But the core numbers are impressive. That ERA, those saves — maybe this is why he went into the Hall of Fame so easily. Plus he won that absurd MVP award …
*This is even truer than I thought when I wrote that sentence. I just went back to Eckersley’s B-R page, and for fun quickly counted up all the saves he picked up during that five-year span which ended up with his team winning by three runs or more. Take a guess how many of those saves he had. Go ahead, guess. Wrong. There were SEVENTY-SIX of them. That’s right, he had 76 saves in five years where his team won by three runs or more. And we’re not talking about a guy who would pitch three or four innings for a save like Quiz or Wilhelm did.
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18 Comments, Comment or Ping
Jon
Is there a way to convert a lot of those older guys’ stats into current day numbers in terms of the use of a closer? They didn’t used to pitch every 9th inning save situation right? What if they were used like these guys today?
Nov 27th, 2007
Brent
The love for Eck is tied to the same people who proclaim Tony LaRusa as a coaching genius primarily because of one of the game’s best pitching coaches works with him and because he changed the definition of a closer to someone who pitches in the 9th inning with a 3 run lead vs coming in with the bases loaded with 1 out in the 7th to save a game. I share your confusion on the love for Eck - -and i will never understand why it’s smarter to pitch your best pitcher with a 3 run lead in the 9th vs with a 1 run lead and runners on base in the 7th…
Nov 27th, 2007
Tim
Now I’m grinding my teeth over the Blyleven comparison. For the moment, keep it simple and look only at innings and ERA+.
BB: 4970 IP, 118 ERA+
DE: 3285.7 IP, 116 ERA+
The ERA+ is so close you’d call it a draw, but Blyleven pitched HALF AGAIN as many innings. Not slightly more — 50% more. It boggles the mind how so many HoF voters could be so wrong about Blyleven.
*sigh*
Nov 27th, 2007
Mike
Brent I totally agree. I do not understand the closer role in today’s MLB. I am a Tigers fan and in 2006 Joel Zumaya pitched in a lot more important spots in games than Todd Jones did. I am actually glad that Jones was there in 06 and 07 and is back for 08 so he can pitch in the 9th and the better relievers can pitch the important innings and not be wasted pitching in the 9th of a 3 run ball game!
Nov 27th, 2007
Jim Haas
It’s the moustache.
Nov 27th, 2007
Charlie Kerfeld
I was on pace for a certain HOF career until I blew out my elbow in a Jello Pudding Pops speed eating contest with Aurelio Lopez. I was just never the same again. I did however beat Aurelio with my 97 Pudding Pops in under 5 minutes to his paltry 23 in the same time period.
Nov 27th, 2007
Colin
Thanks, I thought I was the only one puzzled by Eck’s ease of admission into the Hall. A handful of years as a dominant reliever, a handful of years as a mediocre reliever, and a half a career as a good-not-great starter. I never saw it, especially not as clear as the voters apparently did.
Nov 27th, 2007
Byron
I wonder if this is a rare case of the voters “forgeting” to look at the numbers and remembering how dominant he was as a reliever?
Aside from Kirk Gibson (and one game with Dwight Evans taking him deep in the late 80s) I can’t remember Eck blowing a save. Of course, I know that a blown save or two did happen, but your memory tends to do things as you age. If you were to ask me what a typical Dennis Eckersley inning was, I’d probably say, “Two strike outs and a pop up, followed by Eck pointing at someone and yelling something.”
Again, this didn’t happen every time, but it happened just enough that I think that it did.
Also, I wonder if the voters gave something to Eck for his first few years in the bigs when he was a wild-child fast baller? From Roger Clemens to Joba Chamberlain to Nolan Ryan to Walter Johnson, people love the fastball. If you can throw a ball faster than 95mph, you will have a better reputation than a guy who throws the slop. Which is why Blyleven gets the shaft year in and year out.
So you have a guy that was completely dominant as a reliever, who was a bonafide stud with a fastball as a young kid and then add his reputation for being open, honest and funny with the media and it’s easy to see why he sailed into the Hall of Fame. Plus, if IIRC the skuttlebutt around that year’s voting was that Eck was a sure-fire first balloter, perhaps that mindset helped snowball him into Cooperstown quicker than normal.
This brings up the question though: if someone is a Hall of Famer, should it matter whether he gets in on the first ballot or the seventh or the 15th? A Hall of Famer is a Hall of Famer is a Hall of Famer, no?
Nov 27th, 2007
Old Man Duggan
Maybe HOF-voters have seen enough of his Twins broadcasts to know that they just can’t Circle Bert. Having lived in Minneapolis, he’s really awful. Maybe not Rex Hudler bad, but still bad.
Nov 28th, 2007
Old Man Duggan
All right, just kidding. Based on player credentials (and putting his Joe Morgan-like career as an announcer aside), he does belong in the Hall.
By the way, I seem to remember Joe Morgan not sucking back in the mid-90’s. Like when NBC had Costas, Ueck, and Joe doing the Series. Was I wrong? I seem to remember Joe saying something to that effect, and verification would make me feel better about my teenage self.
Nov 28th, 2007
Brian Gunn
I think it was Joe Sheehan who said that when it comes to awards, writers don’t vote for productivity — especially the kind of productivity that can be expressed numerically — rather, they vote for STORIES. Why did Justin Morneau win the AL MVP in ‘06? Because the Twins were flailing for half the year, then they charged back to win the division, and Morneau led the way. It was a great story. And why did Jimmy Rollins win the NL MVP this year? Well, he guaranteed the Phils would win, and then they charged back in the final two weeks to win the divison. And remember that big triple he hit on the last day of the season? It was a great story.
I think the same goes for Eck. Numerically speaking he falls short of several more qualified candidates for the Hall. But man, remember how he won 20 games then transformed himself into an elite closer? Or how bout the year he struck out 73 guys, walked only 4? Or that other year when he saved 51 games, blew only 3? Those are numbers, yes, but they also tell a neat little story — much neater than, say, five-year-peak cumulative RSAA.
Of course I’m more in the objective, passionless camp when it comes to sizing up guys’ careers. But — playing devil’s advocate here — I can see the argument that says that the Hall of Fame isn’t necessarily a collection of the best players in history. It is, rather, a warehouse of memories, stories, and folk wisdom. And for better or worse, Eck has lodged in our communal memory more than Blyleven has. That’s the ‘fame’ part of the Hall of Fame, and that’s why Eck waltzed in on the first ballot. Again, I don’t agree with the logic, but I see that there’s some logic to it.
Nov 28th, 2007
Lance Richardson
Brian, I tend to agree with your assessment of the Hall of Fame.
But if the Hall is more about “memories, stories, and folk wisdom,” what the hell is keeping Gossage out???
Nov 28th, 2007
Brian Gunn
I don’t get it either — Gossage has both killer numbers and a killer rep, so you’d think he’d be in. When I was a kid he was the embodiment of the cutthroat, take-no-prisoners relief ace. So why has he been pushed aside? I thought it might have something to do with the modern mania for save totals, but hell, he had more saves than Sutter, so that doesn’t explain it either. I’m stumped.
Nov 28th, 2007
jonathan w.
Isn’t the HOF case for John Smoltz today being related to the career path of Eckersley (w/ Smoltz being much more successful the starter)?
The NBC version of Joe Morgan did make sense. He had Uecker there for comedic relief and Costas to guide the broadcast.
Nov 28th, 2007
Kevin from Ohio in Virginia
Eck was pretty good, and he became legendary by doing it colorfully while being a nice guy. That’s what got him in so quickly.
Look at McGwire. Once upon a time, Big Mac was Mr. Nice Guy and a member of the 500 HR club who may as well have been a DH despite the fact that he was either a teammate of Jose Canseco’s or in the NL for most of his career. One time in St. Louis, I may have noticed that he had a glove on at some point. You get my point… ANYHOW… McGwire was guaranteed to go to the Hall immediately with his 500 homers and his father-son home plate celebrations and those big pearly white teeth of his and his Sammy Sosa lovefest. Then, Mr. Mac went to Washington. Then, Mr. Mac did not go to Cooperstown.
That’s not to say that he doesn’t deserve it or that he’ll never go - I hope he does - but the media’s opinion of you personally is what determines whether you go or not.
Another good example: 1995 AL MVP - Mo Vaughn over Albert Belle? Are you KIDDING ME?!
Nov 28th, 2007
Craig Hooten
Joe,
I haven’t had time to sit down and break down all those pitchers yet to prepare a rebuttal, but I can point out one mistake I made in my original post.
Eck had a WHIP of .7923 over those 5 years, not .855. I’m pretty sure not a single guy on that list had a superior WHIP to that or can beat his 9.91 K/BB ratio during that 5 year time frame and his K/IP ratio has to be right up there too.
When I’m evaluating pitchers, ERA comes after WHIP, K/BB, and K/IP as relevant stats. Yes, it all boils down to runs allowed, but the less base runners you allow, and the less balls you allow to be put in play, the more successful you’re going to be. I’m pretty sure most HoF voters don’t even know what RSAA is so it’s obvious it’s not a stat they were going to pay attention to when they voted.
It is interesting to see 3 former Royals on that list of 12, even if one of them(Roberto Hernandez) sucked when he was here in KC. I
t was nice to go back and see how special Quiz truly was, and how lucky we were to have him in Kansas City. Monty was pretty special too, a nice guy who was extremely underated during his career.
Nov 28th, 2007
mdpeter
Maybe there should be an “Albert Belle line” for the Hall of Fame. Since he’ll never make it, the careers of future indutees should rank higher than Albert’s when compared to their peers. Would Rice make it? Bagwell? Kirby Puckett?
Can’t have a short career? Koufax, Kiner, Puckett, etc. Can’t be a jerk? Cobb, Grove, Gaylord Perry, etc. Can’t be hated by the press? Eddie Murray, Steve Carlton, etc. Why should it be more impressive to have 8-10 amazing years followed by 8-10 mediocre-to-poor seasons instead 10 stellar seasons? Food for thought…
“Albert loves this game. He’s been playing his whole life. . .You want to go out on your own terms, and when you don’t, it’s real heartbreaking. Your heart goes out to him.”
- Chris Richard, March 8, 2001, About Belle’s career ending injury
“I had a lot of respect for him before he came here (to the Orioles) and I have even more respect for him now. He always wanted to be the best. His intensity at the plate was almost unparalleled. Even to see him at the end, trying to battle the injury, showed how much heart and commitment he has. He just doesn’t give up. That’s a quality you admire.”
- Cal Ripken, March 14, 2001
“I don’t care what people said about his attitude and about what he did off the field. . .A lot of that had to do with the way he prepared for the game. He was very intense about getting ready to play. But he was an outstanding player. That’s what I care about.”
- Marquis Grissom, March 14, 2
Nov 29th, 2007
J. Michael Neal
Aside from Kirk Gibson (and one game with Dwight Evans taking him deep in the late 80s) I can’t remember Eck blowing a save.
Well, there was the moon shot he gave up to Robbie Alomar in the 9th inning of Game 4 of the 1992 ALCS, the final appearance of his MVP season.
Dec 1st, 2007
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