Joe Posnanski

For fun, thought I would look back at some of the bad MVP choices over the last 50 years. These are not necessarily ALL the bad choices, but these are some that stand out for me. One thing I was looking for was “undeserving” choices — meaning I wasn’t just looking for a case where one guy was better than another (say Fred Lynn was better than Don Baylor in 1979 — which he was) but a case where the actual MVP really did not have an MVP season.

I want to make one quick comment about using newer stats (like OPS+) to measure older players: I know some people think it isn’t fair. They think players like Andre Dawson, for instance, should not be measured by his on-base percentage because nobody really cared about on-base percentage back then. You could even take it another step and say that if people DID care about on-base percentage then, Dawson might have taken more pitches.

I may buy that argument a little bit — but not much. First of all, Dawson’s on-base percentage was below average FOR HIS TIME. Let’s not go overboard — people were reasonably aware even in 1983 (and 1952 and 1921) that a walk was better than a kick in the teeth. Hell, Little League coaches have been shouting “a walk’s as good as a hit” for quite a few years.

Second of all, you can’t go back. We know that on-base percentage is significantly more important that batting average. We know that OBP has a much more direct effect on runs scored. So what are you supposed to do when looking back at players — ignore it and say, “Oh, but back then, they didn’t care about OBP?”

Some of the advanced metrics give us a truer idea, I think, of how good/great players were. They don’t ignore home runs, batting average, ERA or the other good ol’ stats. The enhance them. People knew Mickey Mantle was great. In retrospect, because of his tremendous OPS numbers, he might have been even better than they knew.

And as for the belief that if OPS had been prominent earlier, players would have drawn more walks — I don’t buy it at all. Plate discipline, I believe, is a tool, like power. You can improve it some. Some improve it a lot with hard work. But recognizing pitches, taking close balls, fouling off unhittable pitches, battling with a pitcher who won’t give in — this isn’t just something that you can decide to do. Dawson was a great player in many ways. In my opinion, he did not have those skills.

2006
AL MVP: Justin Morneau
RMVP: Derek Jeter
Comment: I often can see and appreciate both sides of an argument. I can see the advantages of the DH, and I can see why the DH should go. I can see the why people cannot stand Terrell Owens and I can see why people like him. Lord knows I’ve gone round and round as I’ve tried to figure out how to feel about the steroid/human growth hormone/performance enhancing drug era of baseball. I’m really a major flip-flopper, which would probably hurt me in Iowa.

So I SAW why my fellow voters chose Justin Morneau as MVP. I saw it: Morneau was the first Twins player in almost 30 years to hit 30 homers in a season. He, of course, drove in 130 runs — RBIs always impress the voters. He got hot when the Twins got hot, so there was reason to credit him for the Twins playoff surge. People who were around the team a lot felt Morneau had a huge effect on the team. He also hit .321 for those batting average lover out there …

(OK, I have to interrupt this to post to share with you something I just read in: “Joe Morgan: A Life in Baseball.” Yes, I’m waist deep now in research about the 1975 Cincinnati Reds, and I have to say that, comparatively speaking, this is pretty terrific book. Most of these bios are SO dry, so self-serving, so much about nothing, but this book is honest and pretty hard-hitting and a little bit self-effacing and it gives you a real insight into one of the best and toughest players who ever lived. I know Joe Morgan gets hit quite a bit as an announcer, and I’ve popped a jab or two myself, but this book reminds me how much I liked Morgan when he first became a baseball announcer. He had bold and interesting things to say, I thought. I wasn’t just imagining that.

Anyway, here’s what he wrote:

“The two most overrated stats in baseball are batting average and earned run average. I measure a player by his run production. Slugging percentage and on-base percentage actually tell you more about run production than batting average.”

That was in 1993. Joe Morgan — years before Moneyball came out — was promoting OPS. He then goes on to say that in pitching, the key stat is wins, which is dubious. But the point here is that Joe Morgan loved OPS in 1993 and before).

Back to Morneau … I can SEE why voters voted for him. I can’t appreciate it though. This was one of those times when I was just completely on the opposite side of many of my friends. My feeling, and it was strong, was that his teammate Joe Mauer should have been MVP. To me there was no doubt that Mauer was more valuable than Morneau, and you could even break it down to two basic points:

1. Mauer had a higher OPS than Morneau.
2. He was a catcher (and a darned good one). Morneau was a first baseman (and a lousy one).

You know what, I was lying, I cannot even see the other side. I feel quite certain that Mauer was more valuable than Morneau to the Twins in 2006, But … I broke down the MVP voting on the old “TSOB” blog, and as I recall EVERY SINGLE VOTER put Morneau higher on their list than Mauer. Every single one. So you know what? I was wrong. as Bruce Springsteen said when talking about how Manfred Mann rewrote a line in his “Blinded By the Light” and made it a No. 1 hit (they changed “cut loose like a Deuce” to “cut loose like a douche”) — “The people have spoken.”

In either case, Jeter probably should have won the award. He finished second. He hit .343/.417.483, drove in 97, scored 118, won the Gold Glove at short (undeserved, in my opinion, but it was probably his best defensive year), I think it’s a toss-up between Jeter and Mauer — Jeter actually had 32 Win Shares to Mauer’s 30 if you want to consider that. Either case, Morneau wasn’t a good pick.

1999
AL MVP: Ivan Rodriguez
RMVP: Pedro Martinez
Comment: Enough has been said about this year — a couple of writers, for whatever reason, left Pedro (23-4, 2.07 ERA, 243 ERA+) off their ballot. Ah yes, the joy of politics in sports. But here’s my point now: Several hitters, including Cleveland’s Manny Ramirez, had much better years than Pudge v2.0.

A brilliant reader commented here that Cleveland players have been getting screwed out of awards in recent years, and while there may be a bit of Cleveland attitude in that statement — something I can always appreciate — it is certainly true in this case. Manny Ramirez drove in 165 runs this year. When you think about how much RBIs have meant to MVP voters through the years, it is absolutely STAGGERING to think that Manny got only four first place votes.

Manny had, by quite a bit, the best offensive season in the AL that year — and one of the best of the crazy 1990s. He hit .333/.442/.663 with 44 homers, those 165 RBIs, he scored 131 runs. I think Pedro should have probably won the award, but if you were going to leave pitchers out, I certainly think MannyBeingManny should have won it over Rodriguez.

I wonder if MBM simply caught some of the after-Albert-Belle-hard-feelings. He was a Cleveland outfielder, moody, unique and a masher. Maybe voters couldn’t tell the difference. And as you shall see, Albert took a beating from the voters.

1998
AL MVP: Juan Gonzalez
RMVP: Albert Belle
Comment: This was a year when the RBI fetish that we voters sometimes have was front and center. Juan Gone drove in 157 runs to lead the league.

Belle was in Chicago by now, and he clearly had a better season:
Juan Gone: .318/.366/.630, 45 homers, 157 RBIs, 110 runs.
Albert Belle: .328/.399/.655, 49 homers, 152 RBIs, 113 runs.

Belle was hurt because, well, he was Albert Belle, and also the White Sox finished below .500. Alex Rodriguez, who hit 42 homers and stole 46 bases that year, might have been the MVP as well.

1996
AL MVP: Juan Gonzalez
RMVP: Alex Rodriguez
Comment: Juan Gone didn’t deserve either of his awards. But again, the man had some RBIs.

Juan Gone: .314/.368/.643, 47 homers, 144 RBIs, 89 runs.
A-Rod: .358/.414/.631, 36 homers, 123 RBIs, 141 runs, 15 steals.

A-Rod, of course, was also an above average shortstop. It’s a staggering year for a 20-year-old. It’s a staggering year for any age. Voters just whiffed here (Juan Gone’s RBIs carried him to a 3-point victory over A-Rod).

By the way, Albert Belle got screwed again. He actually had MORE RBIs than Gonzalez and a better year as well.

1995
AL MVP: Mo Vaughn
RMVP: Albert Belle
Comment: Dear voters: The name is Albert Belle. A-L-B-E …

Vaughn: .300/.388/.575 39 homers, 129 RBIs, 98 runs.
Belle: .317/.401/.690, 50 homers, 52 doubles, 126 RBIs, 121 runs.

You could certainly make an argument this year for Edgar Martinez, who had a sensational year as a DH (.356/.479/.628, 29, 113, 121), but the point I want to make here is that Albert Belle really could have won three MVP awards. And he SHOULD have won this one, I think. I don’t know how many of those he screwed himself out of by being Albert Belle, but:

1. Being Albert Belle really shouldn’t matter.
2. If he had won three MVP awards, he might have been a legit Hall of Fame candidate.

1992
AL MVP: Dennis Eckersley
RMVP: Take your choice — Robero Alomar, Frank Thomas, Mark McGwire, Kirby Puckett …
Comment: Dennis Eckersley was one of my favorite players when I was growing up — and I can remember being near tears when the Cleveland Indians traded him away. That said — I don’t get anything about him. I don’t get why he was a first-ballot Hall of Famer. I don’t get why he was so celebrated by writers and broadcasters. And I REALLY don’t get how he could have possibly won this MVP award.

He threw 80 stinking innings. That’s it. Yes, he had a fine 7-1 record, he had 51 saves if you care about that. He had a nice 1.91 ERA, but hell, Jeff Montgomery that year had a 2.18 ERA and pitched more innings; Greg Olson had a 2.05 ERA as a closer; Steve Farr threw fewer innings but he had 30 saves and a 1.56 ERA; I mean Jeff Russell had 30 saves and a 1.63 ERA that year. The late great Steve Olin threw more innings and had more wins and 2.34 ERA.

This was a joke. An absolute joke. You know, in some ways, this is an even worse pick than Andre Dawson because the writers WENT OFF THE BOARD for this one — at least Dawson led the league in homers and RBIs. Eckersley led the league in one-inning saves and nothing else. You know, if Eckersley had won in 1990 — when he had that absurd 0.61 ERA — OK, I could see it. I would not have agreed with it, but you could at least say, “Wow, that’s a once-in-a-lifetime type ERA.” But in 1992? A joke.

It doesn’t matter who should have won — there were lots of choices. Kirby Puckett (.329/.374/.490) finished second and would have been a better choice. You know, Mark McGwire (42 homers, league leading 176 OPS+) had a really good year too.

By the way, yes, I have noticed that every bad pick so far has been in the American League. There has not been, in my mind, a scandalously bad MVP pick in the NL since Dawson in ’87 (I would say Terry Pendleton wasn’t an especially great choice in 1991; maybe Gibson over Darryl Strawberry and Will Clark in ’88 is bad, but I think it’s defensible — that Dodgers team did win 94 games and the World Series. SOMEBODY had to be good). Are NL voters smarter than AL voters?

1987
NL MVP: Andre Dawson
RMVP: Ozzie Smith
Comment: We’ve been over this. Jack Clark could have been in the mix too.

1987
AL MVP: George Bell
RMVP: Alan Trammell
Comment: Said it before will say it again: This was a horrendous pick on about 29 different levels. And had Trammell won the award he so obviously deserved, Hall of Fame voters might wake up and see that Trammell has a real Hall of Fame case.

1984
AL MVP: Willie Hernandez
RMVP: Cal Ripken Jr.
Comment: Really, the MVP should never be a closer, unless he’s some new invention like a three-inning closer. Rollie Fingers was a bad choice three years earlier too. But in 1984 the Tigers 35-5 start made everyone lose their minds. I remember that year the talk was all about how Willie Hernandez saved a whole bunch of games in a row …

Ripken, meanwhile, had what was probably the best year of his career (145 OPS+ and amazing defensive numbers at shortstop) and received one 10th place MVP vote.

1965
AL MVP: Zoilo Versalles
RMVP: Uh, Zoilo Versalles
Comment: This is one of the most famous bad picks in baseball history — so I’m including it in here — but you know what? It really wasn’t bad. Yes, Versalles hit only .273 that year and did not walk. But he did have an OPS+ of 115, which was pretty darned amazing for a shortstop in 1963. He led the league with 45 doubles and 12 triples, he hit 19 home runs, stole 27 bases, and won the Gold Glove for shortstops. He also scored 126 runs.

You could make a strong case for Tony Oliva, who did lead the league in hitting, was third in RBIs, stole some bases and played good defense himself. But I think you’re splitting hairs. Most people at the time seemed to think Versalles was the key to that pennant winning Twins team. You can quibble, but I think this was actually quite a good pick.

1960
NL MVP: Dick Groat
RMVP: Willie Mays
Coment: This was the year that Roberto Clemente was upset because two of his teammates — Groat and Don Hoak — finished ahead of him in the MVP balloting (they actually finished 1 and 2, and gobbled up all the first-place votes). Certainly when you look at the core numbers that everyone looked at in 1960, you can see why Clemente was hurt:

Groat: .325, 2, 50.
Hoak: .282, 16, 79
Clemente: .314, 16, 94

Groat, incidentally (or not incidentally) will be inducted into the College Basketball Hall of Fame this weekend in Kansas City. He was a fabulous college basketball player at Duke.

But the guy who really got hurt was Willie Mays, who had his typically great year (.319/.381/.555 12 triples, 29 homers, 103 RBIs, 107 runs, 25 steals, remarkable center field defense) and was once again ignored. This was the fourth straight year he finished in the Top 6 in the MVP balloting but did not win. He should have won in 1958 also.

Eddie Mathews (.277/.397/.551, 39 homers, 121 RBIs) also had a great year.

1958
AL MVP: Jackie Jensen
RMVP: Rocky Colavito
Comment: Another RBI pick — Jensen had 122 RBIs. But once again, the Indians player got taken.

Jensen: .286/.396/.535, 35 homers, 122 RBIs, 83 runs.
Colavito: .303/.405/.620, 41 homers, 113 RBIs, 80 runs.

Mickey Mantle, having his typical year, may have been better than both of them. But I’m giving it to the Rock.