Things I Learned (today) …
Posted: November 5th, 2007 | Filed under: Baseball | 15 Comments »
I believe it was Shakespeare — can’t remember if it was in Hamlet or MacBeth — who wrote: “Jet lag sucks.†Ah the wisdom of those words, methinks. Today was just an absolutely wasted day spent (A) Being wide awake when I should have been sleeping; (B) Vaguely sleeping when I should have been awake; (C) Feeling sick enough to keep checking if an alien baby was about to emerge from my stomach.
I did spend the moments in between trying to read stuff while my daughters watched shows with the word “Word†in them (Wordgirl, Word World, WWF Royal Rumble: Pain! Just a 4 Letter Word, you know, all the usual stuff). And I picked up a few things along the way. Here you go:
1. David DeJesus is a really, really good base runner.
Source: The Bill James Handbook 2008. Which is just awesome — you should go right out and buy one right now, you know, assuming you already bough this. (I should say there’s a lot of BJH 2008 in here, and that’s usually the territory of the excellent Rich Lederer. Our apologies, Rich).
It’s funny what you notice when you watch a team every day. I have noticed and commented numerous times on what a good base runner Royals right fielder Mark Teahen is. It’s uncanny, really. He takes the extra base. He goes first to third. He runs aggressively and forces ill-advised throws and really affects the game with his running. I have really tried to get the word out about Teahen’s running.
And all along, it seems that DeJesus — who I’ve hardly really noticed on the bases — is even better.
I love the BJH. Bill, as mentioned here before, is a good friend of mine, but beyond that, I’m just in awe of the guy. He’s constantly finding new ways to look at baseball. For instance, one of my favorite parts of the BJH is the base-running stats they calculate. Bill and his folks figure out the best base runners by answering several questions that are generally overlooked (but should not be):
– How often do they score as a percentage to their times on base?
– How often do they go first to third on a single?
– How often do they score from second on a single?
– How often do they score from first on a double?
– How many bases do they take on passed balls, wild-pitches, etc.?
– How many times do they make outs trying to advance the extra base?
– How often do they get doubled off?
This year, Bill added base stealing to the mix, but I prefer to leave it out — we already know who the best base stealers are (or, at least, we know it’s not this guy). So by answering those questions and comparing players to each other, Bill figures out how many extra bases each players picks up over the course of the season (or in the case of players like Frank Thomas, how many bases they cost a team each season).
Bill started figuring this stat last year, and he out that David DeJesus was one of the best base runners in baseball. I found that pretty surprising. DeJesus is pretty famously not fast (at least here in Kansas City). He can’t steal a base — he’s stolen just 29 bases and been caught 23 times in his career. He plays an OK center field because he has good instincts, but he can’t run down anything. He never seems to beat out many infield hits. He’s a good player, I think, but it was stunning, honestly, to see him on the base running list (and not only on the list, but higher on the list than Teahen). I figured it was a fluke.
Well, this year’s list is out now. Here were the 10 best base runners in 2007:
1. Jose Reyes, +34 bases
2. Jimmy Rollins, +32 bases
3. Grady Sizemore, +27 bases
4. Ichiro Suzuki, +26 bases
(tie) Orlando Cabrera, +26 bases
6. David DeJesus, +24 bases
7. Willy Taveras, +23 bases
8. Coco Crisp, +21 bases
(tie) Matt Holliday (!), +21 bases
10. Kaz Matsui, +20 bases
(tie) Mark Teahen, +20 bases
(tie) B.J. Upton, +20 bases
Several things. One, Reyes was the best base runner even when you don’t consider his stolen bases (or his triples). Add those in, and he’s MILES ahead of everyone else.
Two, I cannot believe Matt Holliday is in there. Maybe this guy really should be MVP. I was sort of in the Rollins camp or maybe David Wright, and still see their cases. But Holliday, Coors Field or no, led the league in hitting, total bases, runs created, extra base hits and RBIs. He actually put up pretty good numbers defensively (surprisingly good because he did not appear particularly limber out there, at least when I saw him play). And here, he’s one of the best base runners in the game.
Three, yep, there’s David DeJesus. Again. It’s apparently no fluke. I’ll have to watch him more closely. I’ve obviously been missing something.
2. Russell Crowe asked Spike Lee to cast him as Joe Louis in a movie.
Source: Interview in Entertainment Weekly.
Why was I reading Entertainment Weekly? Like I said, I was sick. Give me a break. Why do we get Entertainment Weekly? Well, last I checked, they are actually paying us to take it. Seriously, can you believe how cheap these magazines are? I think they now deliver GQ to your house whether you order it or not. Sometimes I’ll come to my car in the parking lot and find issues of Esquire and Vanity Fair under my windshield wiper.
Anyway, it was an interview with Crowe and Denzel Washington. Spike Lee came up. Here’s what Russell Crowe told EW:
“He was trying to get me to Max Schmeling in the Joe Louis story. If I was in it, he’d get this $100 million financing. But it was just this secondary role. And I said to him, â€I want to be Joe Louis. I want to be Muhammad Ali. If you want to work with me, let me be Joe Louis. Can you not dig that, man?“
Not surprisingly, Spike didn’t dig that all that well. Man.
â€For whatever reason, I don’t get any more birthday cards from him,“ Crowe said.
3. Fenway Park was, by almost every measurement, the best hitting ballpark in baseball in 2007. But it was one of the worst hitting home run parks.
Source: BJH.
I believe it was Tony Muser who said that sometimes, in certain situations, it’s better to hit a double than a home run. He did not, as far as I know, ever detail what situations he was talking about. I’ve thought way too much about this, and i have so far come up with one situation where a double is potentially better than a homer. You have a tiring starting pitcher. The manager is watching him close. If you hit a double off him rather than a homer, the manager might let him face one more batter.
And then the next batter hits a homer. That’s two runs instead of one.
Anyway, I’ve joked about this, but take a look at the five best home run parks in baseball and their run index rankings (the run index ranks how easy it is to score runs at that park; remember 100 is average, and everything over 100 favors the batter):
1. Citizen’s Bank Park in Philly. Run index: 103
2. Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati. Run Index: 109
3. U.S. Cellular Field, Chicago. Run Index: 108
4. Coors Field, Denver. Run Index: 116
5. Camden Yards, Baltimore. Run Index: 111
Now, as you can see, all those homerdomes are also better than average run-scoring parks. That figures. But now take a look at the five best doubles parks:
1. Fenway Park, Boston. Run index: 118
2. Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City. Run Index, 103
3. Coors Field, Denver. Run Index: 116
4. Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Run Index: 108
5. Wrigley Field, Chicago. Run Index: 117.
ON average, the doubles parks actually are BETTER run-scoring parks than the home run parks. I’m sure there’s a logical explanation for this, but I’m not really going to try to come up with it.
A few other ballpark bits of trivia from BJH:
– Arizona had, by far, the best triples park in baseball. No other park was even close. The Ballpark in Arlington (Texas) was second and Comerica Park in Detroit was third, but I think that was mostly due to Curtis Granderson (not true: Granderson actually hit 13 of his 23 triples on the road).
– Camden Yards was the best batting average park in baseball for left-handed hitters and the second-best home run park in baseball right handed hitters (behind that bandbox in Philly. Aaron Rowand bidders beware).
– I found this interesting — the best fielding park in baseball in 2007 (that is the park where the fewest errors, as a percentage, were made) was Kauffman Stadium. It might not mean anything, but I’ve heard from players that Kauffman does have excellent lighting and it’s always well groomed. The last few years, Kauffman has also been one of the best batting average parks in the game. So it also could be the official scoring.
4. Baltimore Ravens quarterback Steve McNair stinks.
Source: Monday Night Football game.
5. Golden Grahams, while a delicious breakfast cereal under normal circumstances, are not a great thing to eat when you are jet-lagged.
Source: You don’t want to know.
6. Tony LaRussa used the most different lineups, sent up the most pinch-hitters and issued the fewest intentional walks in the National League.
Source: What else? What do you think I was reading today?
What can you say? LaRussa is an original. Here are a few manager facts:
Most lineup changes in the American League: Buddy Bell. Whew. Ain’t it the truth.
Most intentional walks, baseball: Bobby Cox. By a long shot. His pitchers issued 89 intentional walks, way more than Colorado’s Clint Hurdle with 61 or Oakland’s Bob Geren with 60.
Fewest intentional walks: Boston’s Terry Francona. His pitchers issued 20, two fewer than Anaheim’s Mike Scioscia, five fewer than LaRussa. I knew there was a reason I liked Francona. Personally — except in those obvious situations (I’d say there are of those per year) — I despise the intentional walk. I’m always happy when they backfire.
Most likely to sacrifice: Clint Hurdle. I can’t figure out why that would be. In the American League it was Texas’ Ron Washington, and I think that was just him rebelling once he escaped from Billy Beane. Also, he might not know what he’s doing. I suspect that new Royals manager Trey Hillman may sacrifice quite a bit next year as he adjusts to life away from Japan. I hope not too much.
Least likely to sacrifice: Bob Geren. Of course. In the National League, it was Lou Piniella, unless you consider â€sacrificing your body to break up a fight in the dugout,“ a sacrifice.
Quickest Hook: That would be Bud Black in San Diego. In the American League, of course, it was Joe Torre.
Slowest Hook: Fredi Gonzalez in Miami and Joe Maddon in Tampa. Must be something about the Florida air.
7. Texas A&M is talking about buying out Dennis Franchione.
Source: Multiple, including ESPN.com
It seems very possible that colleges will spend more money this year buying out crappy coaches than at any time in sports history. A&M will pay millions to dump Franchione, who was a brutal hire. Nebraska will pay millions to dump Bill Callahan, who was a brutal hire. Notre Dame may go 1-10 and probably will NOT dump Charlie Weis, because it would cost roughly more than the GNP of Sweden. But he’s brutal too.
And people wonder why college tuitions keep skyrocketing. By the time my daughters are old enough to go to college, I’m sure I’ll be paying a million bucks a year in order to pay off all the bad hires athletic directors make.
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I wonder if Holliday is aided by the expansive outfield in Coors allowing him to frequently take that extra base as a baserunner. There are the three rockies in the top 10. Coors is third on the doubles list because of its big outfield. Similarly, Kaufmann is second on the list so perhaps that helps out DeJesus and Teahan. I’m curious if there’s a correlation between being being a better baserunner and the park the player plays in.
Yeah, I was also wondering if those base-running numbers were park-adjusted. Probably so, if it comes from Bill James.
My mom worked for a high-powered attorney near South Bend who lead a kind of uprising by influential Notre Dame alums to dump Dan Devine. They succeeded. Funny thing is, he was a Michigan grad!
With regard to your questions on doubles v. home runs and why the doubles parks are better to score in, I would think it’s because there are more doubles than home runs. Or put another way, a double is much more likely than a home run.
Doubles parks are (mostly) big parks where you can get sustained rallies. Outfielders have to cover more ground so the instances of singles and doubles go up. Home run parks are typically bandboxes where outfielders have to cover less ground. Therefore, you either hit it out or make an out, figuratively speaking.
Of course, you can’t say that about Fenway, except that right field is large. Also, with respect to the Big A and Kauffman, I wonder how much that is influenced by the home team. The Angels and Royals have few boppers but a lot of gap hitters.
I actually heard Muser say that in person once, after a game in Detroit. I still haven’t figured it out. I’ve always pictured Leo Durocher yelling at Bobby Thomson for not doubling off Ralph Branca.
The missing question about doubles vs. homers is what type of hit/out is being converted by the park – are singles turned into doubles (big parks), or homers turned into doubles (that happens on line shots to left in Fenway), or outs into doubles (also happens at Fenway). The complete numbers are needed to see the relative proportions of the different hitting outcomes to really gauge what’s going on. And I trust Joe to give those to us!
Have you ever noticed how Klinger wore a Texas Rangers hat at times on MASH despite it being the Korean War in the early 50s and the Rangers didn’t come along till 1972? I think Jamie Farr thought that the hat was a Toledo Mud Hens hat (the town Klinger was suposed to be from) and didn’t think anyone would notice. Why couldn’t he have gotten a hat from the Mud Hens? How many big hit tv shows had cast members wearing Mud Hens hats? I guess he just walked into a sporting goods store one day, found the Rangers hat, and decided it would do. Shouldn’t be a surprise though since no one on that show dressed or acted like they were from the early 1950s or were in the Army in a war zone.
I may be one of the few people who might agree with Muser. If you hit a double to extend a rally, you keep the pitcher in the stretch, rather than letting him go back to a wind up. The pitcher has a better chance of being distracted with runners on base, although he might be unable to center himself after giving up a big home run. Also, if you have runners on, the fielders have to cheat their depth depending on the situation allowing adding to the stress of the pitcher who knows they’re not in ideal fielding position.
Basically, there might be more stress on the pitcher with men on base. Some pitchers might react to that in a poorer fashion than others. The home run at least clears the slate and allows the pitcher to start over, although he might have some negative lingering effects from giving a home run.
Having men on base during a big rally might cause the pitcher to unravel and get him knocked out of the game.
It was a Toledo Mud Hens hat! Did you actually pay attention to MASH or did you watch it with the sound off?
Great entry as usual, Joe! Lay off the Golden Grahams, though.
Hmmm, why are the best doubles parks on average better run scoring parks than the best homerun parks?
I’d hazard a guess and say that while not every hitter is a good homerun hitter, pretty much every guy in major league baseball (okay, Neifi Perez excluded) can hit a double. Looking at an expected runs matrix, a guy on second base leads to quite a lot of runs, especially with just 1 or no outs.
A double also has a good chance of scoring a guy from first. One walk and a double in a good doubles park and voila, one run.
That’s my rather rapid analysis of that phenomenon. More guys hit doubles than guys hit homers. Doubles often lead to runs. Ergo, good doubles parks lead to lots of runs when compared to good homer parks.
As for the “a double is better than a homer”, whatever. Pitcher stress and cheating fielders and the like is all good and well, but those runners are still on base, and may never score. With a homerun, they score. Ergo, a homerun is always better than a double.
I always love the Mariners fan who claim that while Ichiro COULD hit 20-25 homers a year, he “doesn’t need to do it” because he can hit a single and steal second base easily.
Apparently, being on second base with the number 2 hitter most likely in a pitcher’s count – because he had to take a pitch so you could steal – is better than sitting in the dugout with a run scored? This is the type of Joe Morgan’istic thinking that still infests baseball, much to its detrement.
Instead of Joe Morgan’istic, I could have also made a case for Tim McCarver’ish thinking.
After all, according to Tim McCarver, a grand slam is a “rally killer.”
How this guy gets paid to aggravate millions of baseball fans is beyond comprehension.
Joe,
Been a fan of your writing for a long time, and love the blog. Just wanted to point out a simple truth about statistics. Statistics lie. While I seriously doubt that BJH was trying to make a case that DDJ is a really good baserunner, the stats used will naturally benefit a average baserunner at the top of the lineup over a great baserunner in the middle. Consider the amount of extra bases credited to DDJ as a result of having more opportunities to score from first or second, or the pressure that a pitcher faces when a leadoff man is on base facing a mid-lineup batter. I’d make the argument that since the stats used specifically target the number of bases rather than the percentage of bases aquired vs. the number of opportunities, that the statistics lie.
Look at the players on the list. How many are leadoff hitters? Now this may be a chicken-egg situation, but it is worth considering that nearly all the players on the list are leadoff men. It also exemplifies the greatness of Teahen’s ability that he is on the list given that hitting regularly from the Royal’s 3 spot.
The main point is that more careful consideration of the data, should singal that DDJ is aggressive and good, but more a capitalizer of opportunities; while, Teahen creates his opportunities and maximizes every bit of his physical ability.
I think if you look at triples parks, Comerica (National) Park should probably be higher on the list, and the fact it is not is due to Curtis Granderson, not because of his ability to hit triples, but his ability to prevent triples. Roughly half of the at-bats in Comerica are taken with him patrolling CF, and he had a Gold Glove caliber season in CF for the Tigers.
“I believe it was Tony Muser who said that sometimes, in certain situations, it’s better to hit a double than a home run.”
I agree with Ryan’s explanantion about doubles and homers.
I’d also like to talk about the psycological (or 90% mental) aspect of doubles and homers. To make a long story short, I think a bases clearing double is viewed as part of a rally, while a grand slam is viewed as the culmination of a rally. So, if we’re down by 5, and a batter hits a double. Now you’re down by 2 with a runner in scoring position. I think psycologically, that’s a good situation to be in. There’s room for small ball, another run scoring hit, etc. If a batter hits a grand slam, we’re down by 1, but no runners on. There’s no small ball. The defense play differently, the pitcher pitches differently. In fact, the opposing team thinks “the worst possible thing has happened and we’re ok, so let’s play ball.” But with runner(s) on, there’s still that sense of urgency and tension.
So production wise, a grans slam is better (more is always better, right?). But in terms of rallies, psycologies, and momentum, sometimes, a double can be better. The double is not viewed as the culmination (as may be a grand slam) so the batter believe there is more work to be done. A grand slam, meanwhile, may cause batters to relzx more than is necessary to get the job done.
I’m surprised Carlos Beltran didn’t make it as a top base runner. Year in and year out he is on the list. His legs must’ve gotten to him this year.